Thursday, April 22, 2010

A Steady Stream: 04/22/2010

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league. My goal is to revisit the streamers to see how accurate (or not) my assessment of the risk was.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Friday, 04/23/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

  • Carl Pavano, MIN (30% E; 38% Y!) @ KC - Pavano was lit up for 11 H and 7 ER in just 3.1 IP in his last start at home against KC, so there is some hesitation to stream him again against the same opponent on the road. He's also not fared well in his career against KC (10 G, 7.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). I like his 12:1 K:BB ratio so far in 2010 but KC seems to have this guy's number. RISK: HIGH
  • Scott Feldman, TEX (29% E; 46% Y!) @ home vs. DET - Feldman started the year off with two quality starts but ran into NYY and was pounded for 4 ER and 7 H in just 2.1 IP. DET sports a top 5 offense and it could turn into a slugfest in Arlington. His career numbers against DET are frightening too (16.1 IP, 16 ER). RISK: VERY HIGH
  • Ervin Santana, LAA (14% E; 55% Y!) @ home vs. NYY - Santana looked strong in his last start, pitching a CG, 1 ER game at TOR. He has nice career numbers at home (70 GS, 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) too but this is a Yankee lineup that pounded him for 5 ER in 5.2 IP on 4/13. RISK: MODERATE
  • Justin Duchscherer, OAK (12% E; 61% Y!) @ home vs. CLE - Cleveland owns the worst-ranked offense in MLB and Duchscherer is riding a scoreless streak of 13 IP. 'Nuff said. RISK: LOW
  • Jaime Garcia, STL (8% E; 27% Y!) @ SF vs. Lincecum - Matching up against Lincecum comes with a certain level of risk, but Garcia has been phenomenal in his two starts so far in 2010 (13 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 10 K) and I'm buying what Dave Duncan is selling. RISK: EVEN
  • Kevin Correia, SD (5% E; 73% Y!) @ CIN - Correia needs to go deeper into games to be more widely recognized as a quality starting pitcher (6 IP, 5.2 IP, 5.2 IP) but 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.83 K/9 are all very ownable statistics. RISK: LOW
  • John Maine, NYM (5% E; 12% Y!) @ home vs. ATL - I want John Maine to be fantasy-relevant again, but so far it's not looking that good (13 IP, 21 H, 15 ER, 10.38 ERA.449 OBA, 2.23 WHIP). Maine is now pitching simply to stay in the Mets' rotation. Good luck. RISK: VERY HIGH
  • Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (0.7% E; 2% Y!) @ BOS vs. Lester - Guthrie hasn't pitched as badly as his record indicates (0-2, 3 QS) and has put up decent ratios (3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14:3 K:BB) so far.  He's never pitched well against BOS (11 GS, 1-5, 4.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and even worse at Fenway. RISK: DANGER!
Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:
  • Johnny Cueto, CIN (9% E; 45% Y!) @ home vs. SD
  • Kenshin Kawakami, ATL (1% E; 42% Y!) @ NYM
  • Ryan Rowland-Smith, SEA (1% E; 35% Y!) @ CHW
  • Paul Maholm, PIT (0.8% E; 22% Y!) @ HOU vs. Oswalt
  • Greg Smith, COL (0.4 % E; 2% Y!) @ home vs FLA Nolasco
Would love to hear if you've already resorted to streaming in your Rotisserie league to make up points or in your Head-to-Head league to capture a category victory. Also looking for opinions (for and against) the practice of streaming pitchers.

1 comment:

  1. Revisiting my risk assessments:

    - Pavano's risk was HIGH and yet he performed much better than that (7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, o BB, 5 K, W). His ERA is a little high (4.24) but his WHIP (1.11) and K:BB (17:1) make him a very ownable started in leagues that use expanded stat categories (QS, K:BB, OBA).

    - Feldman was bumped. Harden started.

    - E. Santana was a MODERATE risk at home vs NYY and pretty much delivered what I expected (6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, ND).

    - Duchscherer was a LOW risk and performed brilliantly for a stream (6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, W). Would have loved to see him go more than 6 IP, though. Season WHIP (1.26) and ERA (1.82) are very ownable stats.

    - Garcia was an EVEN risk going up against 2-time Cy Lincecum. His 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, L were a good effort on the road. Risk level was probably higher than even.

    - Correia was a LOW risk and came through nicely (5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W). Would have preferred him going deeper into the game too. His season ERA (3.13) and WHIP (1.13) are very nice numbers to own.

    - Maine was a VERY HIGH risk and was pitching very well (3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) until leaving with an injury. I'll call that risky.

    - Guthrie at BOS seemed like a DANGEROUS stream. He pitched a QS with 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K and got the ND. Turned out not to be all that dangerous. Sadly the O's are horrible at this point to stream any of their pitchers for wins.

    So are my risk assessments of streams credible? Will you come back for more? Is this a column worth continuing? Any feedback is greatly appreciated.