Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition: August 5th, 2011

Welcome back! Apologies for the lateness of the article... Things outside of COSFBA have been a little hectic lately and I've been somewhat under the weather myself (damn heat wave). I'll endeavor to keep things as close to normal as possible here, though likely shorter.

There's been very little movement Waiver Wire-wise with the back end of the 'pens since the first of the month. The Mike Adams trade was the biggest one and it did shake up the Padres' bullpen.  However, who knows what the next few weeks will hold.

Let's have a review of last week's names:

• Brian Wilson only appeared in two games over the last week, due to blow-outs both by and against the Giants. He picked up a save and a loss in 1.1 innings, giving up a run on three hits while walking one and striking out two. Friday's game was the first game he allowed a run since before the All-Star Break, so we shouldn't read anything more into it than a closer having an off night.
• Adams was shuttled off from the San Diego Padres to the Texas Rangers. While it's hard to judge a trade this early, especially across leagues, here's the splits: in his last appearance with the Padres, he pitched an inning allowing a hit and a strikeout. He got the hold in that game. In his first appearance with the Rangers, he pitched an inning allowing a run and two hits, getting a punchout and allowing a walk. Like with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, it's going to be hard to see immediate impact when coming from the opposite league. Once he has time to adjust (3-to-4 weeks, in my opinion), he should be back to near-dominance.
• Antonio Bastardo wound up in four games in the last week, winning two and picking up two holds. He only gave up a run on three hits in 3.1 innings, fanning four. He did allow a longball in last night's 8-6 win over Colorado, but such a thing is a rarity this season (he's only allowed three on the season). His and Ryan Madson's work are pivotal to keep Philly atop the NL East.
• Henry Rodriguez worked in a little longer relief last week, logging 4.1 innings in two games. He gave up a run on a hit, walking one and striking out five. There haven't been any clear or consistent signs of his performances improving; flashes here and there. There might be continued hope for him, but right now all signs point to not much improvement.

 Now, let's get some names out there for this week:

• "Doing Work" - J.J. Putz (ARI): J.J. has been having a solid season as the D-Backs closer, helping keep them within a game of the Division-leading (and World Champion) Giants. His last week reads dominantly: 2.2 innings pitched in three appearances, zero runs on three hits with a walk. He grabbed three saves, running his season total to 25. He is coming off the DL after to a right elbow injury, and isn't showing any ill-effects aside from a slight drop in fastball velocity (1 MPH) which right now could be contributed to 'rust'. The D-Backs had no problems throwing him in three straight games, but will likely rest him for a bit and let Arizona's solid set-up man David Hernandez close as needed. Expect that trend to continue for likely the next month as Putz works his arm (and elbow) back to shape and normal routine. J.J. will still be good for late innings, and will be relied upon for the high-leverage situations as the hunt for the Playoffs builds to a climax.
• "Unsung Hero" - Heath Bell (SD): While the Padres are pretty well out of the hunt for the Playoffs this year, you wouldn't know it looking at Heath. 30+ saves with a sub-2.50 ERA, hitters batting .210 against him. Last week's line reads brilliantly as well: three games, three innings, no runs, one hit, three punchouts. Most of this with the trade winds swirling around him and Mike Adams (who was the eventual 'odd man out'), and in the midst of a relatively dreadful San Diego season. The Padres have been playing a little better lately than their record indicates, and Buddy Black is not a manager to "mail-in" a season, so expect Heath to get plenty of work in for the rest of the year. He'll make it all count, even though it may be way too late to bail out the leaky boat of the '11 San Diego Padres season.
• "Heart-Attack Award" - Jason Isringhausen (NYM): Izzy got roughed up over his last week. He appeared in four games, four innings pitched. He allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and saved two games. He's up to 298 saves on his career, and I will stand behind him getting #300 on a Mets uniform (there were some trade winds swirling for him, and some still say he might still move over the Waiver Wire). However, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. New York is still on the outside edge of a Wild-Card spot, and will be playing like it. Izzy's in line to log more innings in a season than he has since his '07 Cardinals campaign, and it's going to wear on his arm pretty good at this point. The Mets seem to be riding Izzy for all he's worth, and I'm looking to see a fade within the next month and a half. Whether they stick it out with Izzy, or use a fresher (and younger) Bobby Parnell for the stretch run, will be decided by the standings.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Rex Brothers (COL):The Colorado Rockies setup man has been having a first year in the Big Leagues to... well... remember, but probably not for the reasons he'd want to. Up until the last week, he was running along pretty well. But then this happened: four appearances, three innings, six runs, five hits, two walks, six Ks. That equals out to two losses and a blown save. While there's pretty much nothing to go on (3 years of Minors work), Rex is next-in-line for the closer role, apparently by his merits. He's on-pace to pitch more innings than he has in pretty much any level of the Minors. Brothers could either be reduced in workload, or shut down completely because of it. It's extremely difficult to predict future performance on a rookie, so I would have to say that Rex is a "wait til next year" candidate and find your holds elsewhere.

Here's hoping for a return to normal next week!

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition

The Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while several big moves were conspired (I'll probably write my thoughts on Ubaldo Jimenez in a future article), the back end of most 'pens stayed intact. The Rangers added major depth with Mike Adams and Koji Uehara as they try and repeat once more as the AL Champions. Brad Ziegler, former Oakland A, has been shuttled off to Arizona. Other than that, stability reigned in the AL. Certainly there's bound to be Waiver Wire activity in the coming weeks, and I'm sure we'll have more news as it comes.

But for now, let's look at last week's performers:

• Jonathan Papelbon saw action in one game this past week, where he slammed the door on the Chicago White Sox in a perfect ninth inning. He struck out the side, and notched his 24th save of the season.
• Grant Balfour came into three games, pitched three innings, and only allowed two hits. He also got two knockouts, but no holds or saves as the games (all wins) were already well-in-hand.
• Andrew Bailey showed up in two games (like Balfour's games, both well-in-hand so no saves), and gave up an unearned run on two hits in two innings pitched. He fanned three in the midsts of his work.
• Jordan Walden managed to get a save in two games, allowing two hits and getting two punch-outs. The Indians made his save very interesting (as Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard can attest to), but he managed to pull it out.

And this week's winners and losers:

• "Doing Work" - Mariano Rivera (NYY): In an occurrence that's of no surprise to anyone (100% ownership in ESPN leagues), Mo has been putting together a season to compare with the best ones of his career. A 1.74 ERA (4th lowest in his career), a 7.40 K/BB ratio (2nd best), a 0.6% HR (2nd best), and he's averaging 14 pitches per game in relief, the best in his career. I really don't have to say much about Mo. He's 41, still dealing over 90 MPH on his heat, and his numbers over the last 4 seasons have been much better than his career averages. He does seem to be getting hit more easily (.294 BAbip this season vs. .264 career), but with a FIP this year of 1.88 (right in line with his season ERA, 0.87 better than his career average, and the best in his career), he is still an insanely effective pitcher. He has 587 saves on his career, and knowing the Yankees and their fight in the AL East, he will hit 600 before the season's end. I'm not a Yankee fan, but I do know a superstar player when I see one. Mo is one for the ages.
• "Unsung Hero" - David Robertson (NYY): Behind every great closer, there's usually a great set-up man. In the real-life Gotham City, Mo's Batman is accompanied by 'Robin' Robertson. David has only been in the Bigs for four years, so saying a season is his best so far isn't difficult. However, the amount of improvement he's shown has been amazing. His ERA this year is 1.90 below his average, his FIP is 1.35 lower, and his WHIP (while not impressive) is 0.11 lower. His LOB % (85.5), GB % (46.0), and K/9 ratio (14.46) are all much higher than his career marks. He's picked up 2 MPH on his fastball, almost 3 MPH on his curve, and a touch over 3 MPH on his changeup. He has a wide range of speeds, and has enough control to get batters to slap ground balls down. Plus, there's the fact of him not giving up a single home run all season. He's grabbed 21 holds for the year so far, so he's definitely worth a pick-up in holds and deep leagues. He could be next in line to take over closing duties after Mo retires. If he continues on his upward trend, the drop-off after Rivera will be much, much less than I think anyone anticipates.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Neftali Feliz (TEX): There may have been a reason behind the Rangers' acquisition of Adams and Uehara, and it might be to back Feliz up in a possible "closer-by-committee" situation if he continues to struggle. I know I've written about Feliz before. At the time, I wrote that he'd possibly be coming around. Well, so far, not so good: a loss (and a blown save in the process) and a save in his last two games. He gave up two runs on three hits in 1.1 innings pitched, with a walk and a strikeout. Yes, as I stated before, he's coming off a horrible month of June. His month of July wasn't great: 0-1 record, 5 Sv, 4.00 ERA, 9 IP in 10 G, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. While it was an improvement on June, there's still a lot of work to get back to the sub-2.00 ERAs of April and May. His last 28 days numbers (save the ERA) are trending more towards his '11 season numbers, so there is still a chance for Feliz to pull it together and end his season strong. There may be less pressure on Feliz in this pennant race now that Adams and Uehara are both Rangers, but I don't see a change in the role of closer unless Feliz completely falls on his face.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Jon Rauch (TOR): The Blue Jays do have an outside chance at the Playoffs: only 10.5 games out of the Wild Card lead, and an above-.500 record. If they were in the AL Central, they'd be tied with the Indians at two games out of the lead. However, Jon Rauch isn't exactly helping them get there. Over his last three games (2.2 IP), he's given up two runs on three hits, only grabbing two strikeouts. With a WHIP of 1.500, an OPS of .876 and a BAbip of .357 over the last four weeks, it's really doubtful that this is just a 'phase'. With a low GB% (36.6), a high HR/9 ratio (1.62), and a FIP of almost 5 (4.82), there's something more to all of this. Rauch has lost speed on all his pitches (1.5 MPH on his fastball alone) along with an increased reliance on his changeup (10.7% this year, up from 6.2% a year ago). The problem comes into effect when you consider his average fastball is at 89.4 MPH, his average slider is 84.6 MPH, and his average changeup is 83.7 MPH. A 5.7 MPH difference between a pitcher's hard stuff and his "finesse" pitches is definitely not a good thing, and tends to get him hit hard. The unfortunate thing is that the next-in-line for the closer role, Frank Francisco, is not much better. The Jays may want to consider a Waiver Wire move for 'pen help, or any hope of Playoffs for them is moot.

 The NL will be on report on Thursday as usual. As always, comment below or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Special Trade Recap: Fukudome to Cleveland

As the local Cleveland Indians apologist, I was asked to give my slant on the trade that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Tribe today. Now this is obviously outside of my "area of expertise", being the late-inning relief guy here. But I think getting out of one's element every once in a while isn't necessarily a bad thing.

So here goes.

The Details: Chicago Cubs OF Kosuke Fukudome was sent to the Indians yesterday for two minor league players: OF Abner Abreu (Class A Kinston) and RH RP Carlton Smith (Class AAA Columbus). Fukudome, who has $4.7 million left on his contract for 2011, will have all but $775,000 of it picked up by the Cubs. Fukudome is in the last year of his contract and is potentially worth free-agent compensation this coming offseason. This means if the Indians offer Fukudome arbitration and he declines in favor of free agency, he would qualify as a Type B free agent (and would be worth one compensatory pick in '12). To make room on the 40-man roster, OF Travis Buck was designated for assignment.

The Breakdown: Fukudome was reasonably solid in the lead-off spot for the Cubs, contributing a .275 BA / .374 OBP / .742 OPS. The 13 RBIs is a little misleading, as he hit lead-off for a National League team. He's an extremely patient hitter, sporting an average of 4.33 pitches / AB this year. While he's not going to impress with his power (3 HR this season, 13 HRs tops in his MLB career, and a .141 ISO for his MLB career leans towards him being naturally light on power), his bat-handling is relatively good (.330 BAbip, 5-for-5 in sac bunts, only 2 GIDP, and a 5.1 AB/K ratio). He has plus speed (2-for-4 in steals this year, 27-for-51 on his MLB career), and is a flexible outfielder (he's played both RF and CF in three of the four years of his career).

The Positives:

• Fukudome is stats-wise instantly the best outfielder on the Indians not named Michael Brantley. With Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo on the shelf for at least the next month (Choo is hopeful for mid-August, but that should be taken with a grain of salt), the Tribe has been platooning Travis Buck, Austin Kearns, Ezequiel Carrera, and Shelley Duncan (currently in AAA Columbus)... We'll forget that little "experiment" with Luis Valbuena in the outfield. Both Sizemore and Choo were picking up their games (they were a combined 20-for-63 with ten walks and 20 RBIs in their last ten games played) before they were hurt, so their losses were at the worst time possible. Since the All-Star Break, the platoon mentioned above (minus Duncan, who had not played since July 8th and was sent back down to Columbus July 17th) has gone 14-for-73 (.192) with 12 walks and five RBIs. Fukudome by himself went 9-for-35 (.257) with four walks and an RBI. Travis Buck was by far the weakest link of the platoon (2-for-24, 2 BB, 2 RBI), and he was designated for assignment to get Fukudome a spot on the 40-man roster.
• Fukudome gives the Indians a legitimate contact bat that is sorely needed. How sorely? In the 13 games (5-8 record) since the All-Star Break, the Indians are dead last in the AL in BA (.216) and OBP (.285), second-to-last in hits (91) and RBIs (43), and third-to-last in runs (46). This year, Fukudome is batting .311 with RISP, with an impressive OPS of .982, and a .394 BAbip. That's actually an improvement on his solid career marks (.274 / .871 / .306). And while his bat isn't a power right-handed bat like the Indians fans insist they need, it's a marked improvement over what they have available.

The Negatives:

• The biggest (and only real) negative can be distilled down to two words. Two simple words make all of the above stats on Fukudome pale instantly: League Change. All of the numbers are including NL pitching, whom he's dealt with for the last 4 years. With this lovely invention of Interleague Play, we can see how he's stack up against the pitchers of the AL. The stats are not-so-hot. In 53 games (200 PA) against the AL in his career, he's batting .217, sporting an OPS of .594, but does have a .282 BAbip. He's hit a home run, driven in eight... But his K/BB ratio is just a touch over 2.00 (43 Ks, 21 BBs).
• He's going to be coming into a situation with the Indians where he's going to be asked to produce pretty much immediately. He's made a more drastic change of scenery before, coming from the Chunichi Dragons of the Japan Central League to join the Cubs in '08 (a campaign that saw him as an All-Star Starter and in the running for the Rookie of the Year). This time, he at least has some familiarity with the pitching coming in, and might be able to bring the professionalism and solid skillset to bear quickly.

The Verdict: In my mind, we won't know the full effect of this trade for about 2-3 weeks. Fukudome will need an adjustment period to full-time AL pitching staffs, but he has solid experience and a good eye to back him up. I feel he'll hit a good stride in September, producing near his career averages in the important categories. He is a low-risk, medium-reward move that doesn't have the "Wow!" factor of a Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants. However, he is one of the pieces that the Indians needed to fill the gaping holes of Sizemore and Choo.

I feel that the Indians aren't done making moves, but this first one is a good step in the right direction.

Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition

Well, well, well...Wednesday was a big day in the land of baseball. A bombshell of a deal sending Carlos Beltran to the World Champion San Francisco Giants, a massive three-way exchange involving 11 players in all. Yesterday had Kosuke Fukudome heading to Cleveland to shore up the outfield (a move on which I might have more to say). With just two days left til the Trading Deadline, there's bound to be plenty more 'shock and awe' to come. I'm sure there will be updates as we go along.

As it is, let's go over last week's names:

• John Axford continues to impress, knocking out three saves in three games. Three innings of work saw him give up two hits, striking out three and walking no one. A very solid week for the youngster as the Brew-Crew fight off three other teams for the top spot in the NL Central.
• Jason Isringhausen appeared in two games and saved both. He now has 296 saves on his career. He gave up a hit, a walk, and two knockouts in two innings of work. Bobby Parnell has been rocky over the past few games, so I believe that Izzy is going to be the go-to closer. That is, unless a move gets made. Beltran's already been let go by the Not-So-Mighty Mets. We won't know if they're in full fire-sale mode until Sunday.
• Fernando Salas worked two innings this past week, allowing one hit and one walk, fanning four and notching two saves. The Cards are only a half-game out from the above-mentioned Brewers, and so long as Fernando continues his solid performances, St. Louis will be in the race for the rest of the season.
• Carlos Marmol was seen in three games (2.2 IP), giving up three hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. Sean Marshall seems to have the lead as the "closer for the moment" on the Cubs staff, and it looks like Carlos will be in a set-up role until his mechanics are right. He could be good for a few cheap and easy holds in the interim.

With all that said and done, here's this week's award "winners":

• "Doing Work" - Brian Wilson (SF): Since his little dugout meltdown on the 1st of the month, "The Beard" has been on a tear. In his last ten appearances (ten innings pitched) since he threw down with that Gatorade cooler, he's saved eight games, giving up two runs on seven hits in the process. He's walked four, but stuck out nine in the span. With the Giants' acquisition of Carlos Beltran, the front office is showing its seriousness and intent on thinking "repeat" this year. Contention, especially late-season, will depend on Wilson being his freaky self (all apologies to the REAL Freak, Tim Lincecum) at the back-end of the San Fran 'pen. Career-wise, Brian's heading into his best month of the season: He carries a 1.26 ERA in the month of August on his career, .555 OPS, .286 BAbip, and a strong 1.158 WHIP. This is very promising for a team that's picked up a huge bat for an offense looking desperately for help. While a boost in offense might trim down The Beard's save chances, Beltran will not solve all the Giants' O woes. Wilson will still be in the top five in saves, and likely be a catalyst to another push to the Playoffs for the City By The Bay.
• "Unsung Hero" - Mike Adams (SD): Though the Padres are well-removed from playoff contention, but you wouldn't know it by looking at Adams. He has been having a sensational year, along the lines of Joakim Soria for the Royals on the AL side of the fence. In the last week of work, Mike didn't allow a single run, gave up two hits, and no walks. He's also notched four knockouts and two holds. Sporting a 1.15 ERA on the season, Adams deeper numbers are equally impressive: 0.723 WHIP, 5.33 K/BB ratio, a .451 OPS, and a BAbip of a microscopic .200. His FIP of 2.07, while less solid than his ERA, is still extremely sweet and indicative of a pitcher that's solid enough to not need the backing of his defense (mid-ranked in the MLB). With the trade winds swirling around San Diego closer Heath Bell (and even Adams himself), the situation in the Padres' camp is fluid. If Bell is traded, I would expect Adams to move into the closer role and be a pick-up of value in most leagues. If Adams were to get traded however, it would be to a team with an immediate need for a solid set-up man. That'd help his value in deep or 5x5/6x6 leagues. Either way, Adams is worth looking into for shoring up your fantasy staff.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Antonio Bastardo (PHI): Yet another story about another closer in another pennant chase not exactly getting things done lately. Bastardo has slipped a bit off a solid season over the last seven days. He's only notched one save in three appearances (2.2 IP), giving up two runs on two hits and two walks. On a good note, he did fan three. Antonio has been having a career year, with an ERA of 1.38, FIP of 2.52, OPS of .422, and BAbip of .159. However, there's the case of another young arm possibly starting to fold under the pressure of a tight race. Bastardo's numbers over the last 14 days (ERA of 4.50, OPS of .568, BAbip of .286) are a little troubling. While there's not really a whole lot to go off of (he's only worked one game in August in his career), a sudden falloff during a pennant race is never a good thing. My recommendation is to hang onto Bastardo until we get an idea of how at least the first half of August goes for him.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Henry Rodriguez (WSH): The Nats, while realistically in the Wild Card hunt, are going to have some issues while Rodriguez is in their 'pen. His last seven days read like a pitching coach's nightmare: two games, 1.1 IP, six runs on four hits (including a blast), six walks, no strikeouts. A 4.25 ERA on the year, combined with a paltry 1.32 K/BB ratio, 1.639 WHIP, and .313 BAbip are the epitome of "stay away". There are a few pluses to his game: Only one homer allowed in 36 innings, a GO/AO ratio of 1.48 is solid, he has five holds on the season, and he's only allowed 27% of his inherited runners to score (3-for-11). While those kinds of things may hold promise for future considerations (say, the next year or two), he is of no help now, and should be avoided at any and all opportunities.

That's all that's fit to print for the moment. As always, comments below, or hit me up on Twitter: @JCPronkFan48

Warming Up In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 26th, 2011

Greetings and salutations!

This is likely to be a shorter article than usual this week; Outside-of-COSFBA considerations are taking precedence. However, I'm going to try and get as much goodness out with a few less words than normal. So with that out of the way, here's a quick review of last week's performers:

• Neftali Feliz saw only one game of work in the last week (yesterday). He gave up a hit and a walk in one inning in an absolute pummeling of Minnesota. Manager Ron Washington stated that the long layoff for Feliz wasn't by design, with an off-day and only one save opportunity cropping up (in the 6th on July 20th against the Angels). Feliz was working on the side during the stretch. It's interesting to note that Feliz had a six-day 'vacation' which included the All-Star Break last year, and was lights-out in his remaining performances. Could we be due for a repeat?
• Speaking of the Twins, closer Joe Nathan saw two games this past seven days. He allowed a run on two hits in two innings, striking out one. He was 2-for-2 in the save chances to give him a total of seven on the year. If the Twins have any chance of competing once more in the suddenly-clogged AL Central, Nathan will need to continue to be steady and solid in the back of the 'pen like he has been lately. He has the opportunity to show that the early season was just "knocking off the rust".
• Vinnie Pestano also worked two games and was roughed up for two runs on four hits, including a longball in last night's dramatic Indians comeback win against the Angels. He had only one strikeout in his two innings of work this past week. He blew the save last night on a 1-0 four-seamer Bobby Abreu promptly deposited in the right field seats. The recent streak of work for the "Bullpen Mafia" has been troubling, and I'm starting to wonder (like last week) if the number of innings is starting to wear on the young arms. Pestano and the rest need to right the ship if the Tribe is going to stay in competition.
• Kevin Gregg served his three-game suspension but did work two games against LA over the past week. He notched a save in two innings pitched, giving up two hits and two walks, but two strikeouts as well. It'll be interesting to see if the "cooling of his heels" helps his game any going forward.

 Now let's move forward with this week's guns:

• "Doing Work": Jonathan Papelbon (BOS) - Paps once more makes an appearance in the 'Pen, and this time it's on the "good" side of the ledger. Since giving up the solo run against the Rays, Paps has been dominant. Five innings of work has seen him allow a grand total of one hit. He's also notched three saves and five strikeouts. He's always had solid months of July and August in his career, notching career ERAs under 2.25 each month (2.24 in July, 1.92 in August), WHIPs under 1.100 (0.980 / 1.067), OPSs under .585 (.566 / .584) and BABIPs under .300 (.262 / .293). Careerwise, his FIP has actually been worst in the month of June (3.26), steadily dropping in July (2.91) and even more dramatically in August (2.27). In my opinion, Paps has turned the corner with the turn of the calendar month. The fact that he has full ownership in ESPN leagues shows that the rest of the fantasy owners are keeping the faith in Paps and the Red Sox fight in the AL East race.
• "Unsung Hero": Grant Balfour (OAK) - The Athletics set-up man has been having a stellar campaign, and the last seven days have been no exception. In three outings (3.1 innings total), Balfour is 3-for-3 in holds (18 on the season), giving up three hits, walking one and fanning one. The 2.03 ERA he's accumulated on the year is the second best in his career (his 1.54 ERA with the '08 Rays the only one better). His FIP overall this year (3.11) is better than his career average (3.42), and there are other numbers that are better this year versus his career averages (.237 BAbip vs. .281, 2.56 K/BB ratio vs. 2.38, 1.05 WHIP vs. 1.26, .541 OPS vs. .647). He's coming off of a strained right oblique, and has shown no lingering or ill effects. The fact that he's not seemingly well-known (1.6% ESPN league ownership, only up 0.3% from last week) means he might be more of a depth league pick. However, he's well worth the grab even in your more standard leagues if he's available.
• "Heart Attack Award": Andrew Bailey (OAK) - Bailey's last seven days haven't been horrible. He's given up one run on two hits in three innings, walking three and striking out five. While grabbing saves in each of those appearances, allowing base runners is never a good sign. His FIP throughout his career has exceeded his ERA (2.44 FIP vs. 2.25 ERA this season alone, a more dramatic 2.96 vs. 1.47 last season). Interestingly, he's been throwing more fastballs than ever in his career (78.2% vs. a 65.0% career average), but with a one-MPH drop in average speed. It might not be much of a change, but combine that with a similar drop across the board with all his pitches, and you start to wonder if there might be an issue with Bailey's mechanics. Be it an actual flaw or hitch in his delivery, or perhaps wear and tear, there could be cause for future concern. This isn't enough for me to say to stay away from Andrew; I'm no expert in the medical sciences or the 'sciences' of pitching. However, it's safe to say there's something more here than what's on the surface. Be wary, and only grab Bailey for depth. I have a feeling that Oakland, being out of the race as far as they are, may begin relying on the above-mentioned Balfour for saves sooner rather than later.
• "ZOMBIE!": Jordan Walden (LAA) - The Angel's All-Star closer has been having a good season, but his recent outings have been a mixed bag. Last night, he blew a save (and got the loss) by giving up two runs on two hits (one of which was a game-tying double by Travis Hafner! Sorry, boss.), along with a walk and a strikeout. In the last week, those are the only runs he's given up. However, since June 22, he's gone 2-2, 6/10 saves, five runs, nine hits, three walks, and six strikeouts. This 'wilting under the pressure' during the Angels' attempt to keep up with the Rangers. During the last three months of the season in his (albeit short) career, his WHIPs (1.33 and 1.30), BABIPs (.429 and .333), and BB/9 ratio (3.00 and 4.38) are elevated. While this may be nothing, the fact that it's happening to a closer (whose entire purpose is to 'seal the deal' under pressure) on a team competing for a playoff spot against the AL Champions really brings into question the mental character of Walden in my mind. I can't cry 'fire sale' on him in your leagues, but I firmly believe that his recent performances are a prelude to a full-blown meltdown as the Angels continue to try to hang in the pennant race.

While there's been no major trade fires burning as of yet, we continue to keep an eye on things. We'll report what we find, and I'll have the NL side of the house on Thursday.

Comments below, or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming Up In The 'Pen: NL Edition: July 21st, 2011

Greetings once more, folks!

While we haven't had that blockbuster of a deal involving the back-end of anyone's 'pen like last week (trade deadline's only 10 days away!), there is a bit of news that's worthwhile to report about one of my picks from the last NL article. Let's get to that previous week review:

• Drew Storen was straight dominant in two appearances this last week, both saves. He only allowed one hit in two innings of work, fanning four in the process and walking none.
• Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset saw a good amount of work this past week (three appearances for Masset, four for Ondrusek). Each added a hold to his line, working 5.1 innings of scoeless ball combined. Each man allowed a hit, a walk, and a strikeout over the last seven days.
• Francisco Cordero seemed to recover nicely from being the co-"Heart Attack Winner" this past week, notching two saves in two perfect innings of work...
• ...But Carlos Marmol went pure nuclear, giving up six earned runs in 1.2 innings of work. He only gave up three hits, but allowed an astounding seven walks in three outings. The Cubs are working Marmol on the side to fix up a "mechanical flaw" centered around his slider, and have installed Sean Marshall as the go-to closer for the team in the interim.
• Zach Braddock continued to be, well, Zach Braddock, giving up four runs on two hits and two walks in his only appearance over the last week. Oh, by the way, did I mention he didn't even record a single out? I think that's enough about Mr. Braddock for now.

 So onto this week's fun!

• Our "Doing Work" star is none other than John Axford from the Milwaukee Brewers. Since the Francisco Rodriguez trade, Axford has doled out three saves in four outings, giving up two runs (one earned) on four hits in four innings. He walked two in those outings, but also punched out four. If K-Rod's arrival on the scene has phased the young right-hander, it hasn't shown. The Brew-Crew have stayed the course using Axford as their closer, even after acquiring K-Rod, and it's not hard to see why: 26/28 Saves, 1.52 GO/AO ratio, 3.00 K/BB ratio, and a 73% Contact Percentage. He's a strike-thrower, pitches to contact, and lets his defense help him. Even though the defense behind him is the third worst in the NL, his stats say that he's perfectly capable of doing things himself (reference the K/BB ratio, and his FIP of 2.28 versus his ERA of 2.78). But the stats also tell us that he could be walking a fine line. His WHIP (1.368), H/9 (8.5), and BAbip (.353) are all pretty hefty numbers. While a sub-par defense (and gracious scorers) could be driving numbers like those upward, it could be indicative of a younger arm starting to tire and lose the control that contact pitchers need to be effective. Axford is on-pace to work more innings (74.1) than he's ever pitched in the Majors, and the second most in his career as a whole (his most being his '08 stint with Milwaukee's A+ club at 95 IP).The K-Rod deal could easily have been one to bolster the 'pen and save Axford's arm. K-Rod's a proven commodity and could help down the stretch while the club eases Axford into more innings, instead of sacrificing a solid "future considerations" arm. Fantasy owners should read that as: the Brewers will likely ease off using the young phenom as the season soldiers on, bringing K-Rod in for more save opps come August and September, especially if the Brew-Crew finds themselves in an NL Central dogfight near the end. And for those of you wondering, K-Rod's line since coming to the Brew-Crew: 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 0/1 Saves, 1 Hold, 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
• This week's "Unsung Hero" has been mentioned in my previous article: Jason Isringhausen of the New York Mets. Post K-Rod, Izzy has been dubbed the closer in this MacGyver'ed back-end of the Mets' 'pen, and he's come out strong. He worked three games this week, notching save #294 in his career (and win #47). Through four shutout innings (including two innings of work last night), he allowed two hits and two walks, but sat down six. The 38 year-old northpaw gets a lot of help from his defense nowadays (0.58 GO/AO, .221 BAbip, 2.76 ERA vs 4.28 FIP), but does still have something left in the cannon (1.80 K/BB with 27 Ks in 32.2 IP). The big thing with Izzy will be stamina. Terry Collins has stated that Izzy will get a day or two off after pitching two innings last night, and that likely means any save opportunities will fall to Bobby Parnell (who, incidentally, got the hold in Izzy's save). There are rumblings that Izzy could be dealt by the Trade Deadline, which would be a blow to Mets fans and baseball at large (Izzy has a chance to hit 300 saves with the same club he broke in with), but could be an interesting twist for fantasy leagues with Holds as a stat as Izzy could fit into the eighth inning plans of several staffs. I would say grab Izzy up if he's available in free agency or the waiver wire in your 5x5 or 6x6 league, but I also wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him. His age may put him as only a temporary solution in whatever bullpen he's in.
• The "Heart Attack Award" for today goes to Fernando Salas of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have scuffled of late, losing three straight, and seven of their last ten. Salas hasn't exactly helped right the ship in his last three outings, saving one, blowing one, and losing two (including the blown save). He gave up three runs in three innings, allowed five hits (including two longballs), and only struck out two. While Fernando's numbers this season are no slouch (2.68 ERA, 17/20 Saves, 0.915 WHIP, 4.18 K/BB, .569 OPS, .227 BAbip), the fact that he's melted down in the last week when the Cards have been desperate to stay atop their division is distressing. Though there's not many numbers to back this up (he only made his ML debut in late May of '10), Salas could be in for a rough second half. Cards fans will be hoping for a turn-around from Salas and a quick return to his "old" form. Otherwise, Jason Motte is waiting in the wings for a shot to get the Cards back into the thick of the hunt. Fantasy owners may want to be aware of things like these: 4.78 ERA, 1 Save, 1.595 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, .859 OPS, .324 BAbip. Those are Salas' second-half numbers. Again, Salas is only 26, and is pitching in his first FULL season with the Cards, so take the numbers as you will. My opinion is one of cautious optimism in Salas' youth and current production, but keep other options on your roster in case the bottom does (once again) fall out.
• My "ZOMBIE!" is the aforementioned Carlos Marmol of the Cubs. His season has seemed to go from bad to worse. Now the Cubs are trying to get his mechanics back in shape with his slider. The Cubs are hoping to platoon Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood in the closer's role while Marmol gets right, but neither one of those men has been exactly lighting things up (3.18 and 3.45 ERAs respectively, with 2/7 Saves between them). Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) the Cubs are 14 games out, and can take the time to get Marmol back to form. To fantasy owners who still have Marmol, I think it's safe to let go at this point and attempt to get someone that'll be more useful to the depth of your rotation.

Next week is looking to be a doozy. Not much in the way of big moves just yet, but the way the trade winds are swirling, it could be the calm before the storm.

As always, comments are welcome below or reach out to me on Twitter @JCPronkFan48.

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 19th, 2011

Welcome back, faithful readers...

When we last left our intrepid AL setup men and closers, Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard were the studs of the week, and Jonathan Papelbon and Frank Francisco were the duds. Before we launch into this week's category winners (and in lieu of not having a K-Rod'esque deal to speak about), let's take a a look at how these gents performed over the last week:

• Soria appeared in one game this past week, notching a save in a KC 2-1 victory over the Twins. He faced five batters, giving up two hits. While not the kind of performance worthy of a dominant closer, Soria continues to be a bright spot for a Royals team that generally doesn't have much to cheer about.
• Bard has run his scoreless streak to 21.2 IP with two appearances totaling 2.1 IP post-All-Star Break. He grabbed another hold (his league-leading 22nd), fanning two, walking one, and allowing two hits. Bard continues to be solid deep-league material, and should (in my opinion) be considered high market value.
• Papelbon gave up one run on two hits in two innings pitched over his latest two appearances. He fanned two and claimed his 21st save of the year. Paps continues to give the BoSox fans their MLB daily allowance of cursing and sweating this season. But Paps being Paps, he should be relatively solid (while continuing to "excite") the rest of the campaign.
• Francisco was indeed moved back into the Jays' set-up role coming out of the All-Star Break, and has appeared in two games. In 2.1 IP, he allowed a hit, and struck out one. It's hard to say if he'll turn the corner once more, but racking up scoreless appearances for, say, the rest of this month? That couldn't hurt his chances to come back to the closer's role (currently held by Jon Rauch)

Now, for this week's performers:

• This week's pitcher that's "Doing Work" is Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been stupid good lately. Since taking one on the chin July 3rd against the Marlins (a game in which Mark Lowe blew the save opp and took the loss when a pickoff attempt failed, and Feliz allowed the last of Florida's 4 9th-inning runs), the Rangers have rattled off 11 straight wins. Feliz has been a large part of that. Since the Florida game, Feliz has given up a run on one hit in 5.1 IP, with a walk and four Ks and notching four saves. That includes three perfect outings this past week (2.1 IP) with three Ks and two saves. On the year, his surface numbers are good: 20-for-24 in saves, 2.97 ERA, 26 Ks in 36.1 IP, batters hitting .200 off him. With most things, however, there's a catch. His season numbers in most of the major categories are trending worse than his career averages, which leads me to believe that the advance scouts and batters are starting to figure him out in his second full season: ERA (2.97 in '11 vs 2.57 career), WHIP (1.183 vs 0.915), K/BB ratio (1.44 vs 3.09), GO/AO ratio (0.47 vs 0.58), and FIP (4.45 vs 3.25). While I'm not saying that he's someone to be wary of (he had a very off month of June, which could account for a lot of inflation), owners should be aware also that Feliz's name has been brought up in the trade rumor mills. My advice is to ride Neftali for what he's worth this year, keep a backup option (always wise advice all the same), and if you need to part with him, try to get good value based on overall numbers (plus the fact that he was the '10 Rookie of the Year) and not on a rocky month of June.
• The "Unsung Hero" of the week is the Twins' Joe Nathan. This year's been rough on both Nathan and the Twins in general. Minnesota's found themselves down near the bottom of the pack since the early season, being feasted upon by the injury bug; Nathan being one of the big names to go down for the Twinkies back in May with a right flexor strain. He wound up being out of the lineup for about a month; there was no reason to rush Nathan back, being a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. His first month and a half this season was forgettable, as the rust was obvious. But then the Twins started to pick up their pace and win games, the pack in the AL Central started to close, and Nathan came back in late June. In the 10 games since his return, he's been nothing short of stellar: 2-for-3 in saves, six holds, 9.1 IP, one run on four hits, zero walks, seven Ks. A lot of folks may have sold the farm on Nathan when he went on the DL (or earlier, fearing he wouldn't ever be the same post-surgery), but Matt Capps' implosion as the Twins' closer opens the door for a resurging Nathan. Obviously picking up Nathan at this point won't get you his hold numbers, but it will get you a pitcher that's thrown up a .344 OPS, a .125 BAbip, and a 0.429 WHIP since coming off the DL. And while those numbers are a lot to sustain for the rest of the campaign, the Twins being back in the race will have them leaning on Nathan much more now, giving him plenty of chances to excel and show his stuff from years past.
• My pick for the "Heart Attack Award", as much as it pains me to say it, is my Indians' own Vinnie Pestano (thought I was gonna say Chris "Pure Rage" Perez, didn't you?). The "Bullpen Mafia" has been the key to Cleveland's upstart success this season so far, and "Capo" Pestano has been one of the huge lifts that have allowed the 'pen to be so successful. His recent outings, however, have been offers that fantasy owners could refuse. Over his last 10 games, he's amassed a hefty 7.56 ERA (8.1 IP, 7 ER) on nine hits, three walks and 14 Ks. He was 2-for-3 in saves in the period with three holds. It's entirely possible that this is a bump in the road in a very young career (this being Pestano's first full year in the Majors). It will be interesting to keep watch, however. Considering the ineffectiveness of starters Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot (whom is on the DL at this time), the recent struggles of Carlos Carrasco, and the continued absence of promising rookie hurler Alex White, the Tribe bullpen will likely see a lot of work in the coming games as the rotation is jury-rigged together. Will the young guns hold it together? Or will lack of innings prior to all this work this year come back to bite 'em in the rear? Stay tuned on that. As for Pestano, I would advise getting him for depth in your advanced leagues. He's always good to pull holds out of the air (13 on the year), can back up Chris Perez in case of needing saves (he's come in in 18 save situations), and his deeper numbers (0.963 WHIP, .550 OPS, .260 BAbip, and 2.33 FIP) trend towards his recent issues being just blips on the radar screen.
• This week's "ZOMBIE!" was a little hard to pick out. And while I hate to kick a guy while he's down, I felt that Kevin Gregg of the Baltimore Orioles was probably the worst guy in the last little while. His last 10 games fleshed out like so: 9.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 Sv. His overall stats for the season? Not much better: 36 IP, 16 ER, 33 H, 24 BB, 31 K, 15/19 Sv. Digging deeper, I find some disturbing trends: As of right now, his WHIP (1.583), SO/BB ratio (1.29), and OPS (.769) are lining up to be the worst in his career. His FIP (4.69) is his second worst, with only his '09 Cubs campaign surpassing that (4.93). Maybe this suspension will help get Gregg's head on straight and salvage his '11 campaign. Or, maybe Koji Uehara will step up and make the Orioles' decision once Gregg comes off suspension a little harder. And maybe, just maybe, Gregg will learn how to throw a punch.

Be sure to tune in each Thursday for the NL side of things.

As always, you can hit up in the comment link below or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming In The 'Pen: The NL Edition: July 14th, 2011

Greetings once again, folks!

It figures that when I'm getting ready to work on the NL side of the house for this article series, something big comes up. I suppose that's to be expected around this time of the season, and we should expect more news in the next several days to come. Needless to say, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the move made this morning involving the New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers before getting into the normal heart of the article today.

The Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers today for 2 gentlemen by the name of "Player To Be Named Later", a common commodity. I'll be honest and say I'm not sure what either team's looking to get out of this deal.

The Mets are giving up a star-power closer for prospects when they're not completely removed from the hunt. A good stretch run could find them in the thick of the Wildcard race. However, if the Mets suddenly find themselves running as a closer-by-committee, it could be a rough road to haul. A couple of candidates to fill the role would be the grizzled-but-tough right-handed veteran presence of Jason Isringhausen (whom at the tender age of 38 is seven saves shy of the vaunted 300 mark), and the young and spry Bobby Parnell (who has really grown into the short-relief role with the Mets the last two years). This could also clear the road for another call-up of Dale Thayer, who's had a decent season closing in Triple-A Buffalo. Time will tell how the Mets front office handles this move, though reports are that this is by no means a "waving the white flag" maneuver.

Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on the Izzy/Parnell situation. I would be leaning more towards Izzy in the short-term, due to his star power, experience for a possible playoff push, and the simple fact of getting save #300 on the team he broke into the show with. That's something baseball fans in general would want to see in this day and age.

The Brewers, in the meantime, are picking up another closer when they have John Axford, who is having a sensational year. Rodriguez hasn't pitched in a setup role since the team he was with was called the Anaheim Angels, but the Milwaukee bullpen could benefit from another strong arm. LaTroy Hawkins has been one of the only solid late-inning options for the Brew-Crew as of late, but is still coming off of rotator cuff surgery late last season. The Brewers will be careful with Hawkins for the rest of the season, and especially now that another proven arm has joined the 'pen.

The big news for fantasy owners here is that there may be split closes for Axford and K-Rod from here on out. As close as the NL Central race is, though, don't be surprised to see Milwaukee "dance with who brought them there" and keep Axford as the primary Saves choice. That would leave K-Rod and LaTroy to platoon the set-up role, and thusly split and share any Hold chances in deep leagues.

Now, back to regularly-scheduled programming.

• This week's NL pick for "Doing Work" is Washington's Drew Storen. Drew's last 5 games have been uneventful: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 K, 4 Sv. Those numbers, along with a solid season overall (5-2, 2.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 20/23 Sv, 3 Hld), I'm willing to say that this kid (23 years old) is just starting on an upswing. The kid's a ground-ball pitcher (1.50 GO/AO) with a more-than-servicable OPS (.560) and BABIP (.218). Some are questioning his FIP of over 3.50, but I feel that with his youth, that'll improve by bounds. He is a solid pick-up in more or less any style league, and should be good for several statistical categories for the rest of the season.
• The "Unsung Heroes" in the Senior Circuit this week (and yes, that's plural) are the Reds' Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset. The pair have combined for 5 holds over 8.2 IP, allowing 1 ER, 6 H and 3 BB, striking out 6 along the way. This tandem has assisted the Reds to hold close (pun only semi-intended) in the NL Central race, being only 4 games out with a whole half to go. Ondrusek and Masset have amassed 21 holds on the season, keeping low OPS (.595 and .630) and BABIP (.226 and .283). They both give up more ground balls than fly balls, but are slightly prone to the home run ball (7 HR in 89 IP). Despite this, I feel that these two are a good pick-up. If you have to choose between the two though, I would have to choose Ondrusek on his youth and potential in the long-run.
• The "Heart Attack Award" in this piece also go to a pair: Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero and the Cubs' Carlos Marmol. As good as Ondrusek and Masset have been for the Reds, Cordero has been just as... flaky. While Cordero has posted a season line worthy of some of his better campaigns in his careers (3-3, 2.95 ERA, 17/22 Sv), his last 5 games have been nothing short of horrific. In 4.1 innings, he's given up 7 runs on 9 hits (including a homer), 4 walks, and only getting 1 K. He saved one game, but blew 3. Marmol has similar season numbers (2-2, 2.57 ERA, 19/25 Sv), and while his last 5 games weren't as bad as Cordero's, his line was no walk in the park: 3.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. Both of them are going through rough patches right now, but Cordero's seems a little more serious. His issues with being hit seem to be more sustained as of late, and at 13 seasons in the Big Leagues, his arm may be showing signs of trailing off. With a decent duo in the bullpen (as mentioned above), and Aroldis Chapman lurking in the shadows, any further signs of this slump continuing could pull Cordero out of the closer role on a more permanent basis.
• Lastly, the "ZOMBIE!" of the National League this week is Milwaukee hurler Zach Braddock. Zack is likely to be the loser in the K-Rod deal, and for good reason. His last 5 games: 4 IP, 6 ER on 5 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. The results were a hold and a blown save. His season is along the same lines (0-1, 5.19 ERA, 0/1 Sv), and some of the advanced stats don't sit in his favor: a GO/AO of 0.48, along with a Slg of .369 and OPS of .690 tell me that he's getting hit, and getting hit hard. 43% of the hits he's given up have been of the extra bases variety, and batters are finding a way to make contact off him (63% of the strikes he threw were either fouled off or put in-play). I don't feel Mister Braddock is long for the Brewers rotation, especially now with K-Rod in the mix. Maybe a stint in the Minors will give him something; be it a better mix of his pitches, an added weapon to the arsenal. Even a chance to get that dominant vibe off Triple-A hitting, and bring it back up to the Brewers in September could be the key to making this pitcher a force in the future. For now, however, I can't see him being even remotely usable in anything but a league needing ridiculous depth on the bench.

So that's my take on the NL this week. I know I promised more concise, but no one can anticipate the tides of change in the world of baseball. Things may calm down after the Trading Deadline passes.

At least until September call-ups.

See y'all next Tuesday!

Comments, complaints, or any other words? Hit me up with a comment in the box below, or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming In The 'Pen: The Premier AL Edition: July 12th, 2011

It's that time, folks.

Welcome to the initial installment of "Warming In The 'Pen"! I'm Jeff, your MC for this ride, and I hope it can be fun and insightful for everyone involved!

In case you're just tuning in, the purpose of this article series is to cover your closer and short relief needs. I'll review the stats and info from the last week in baseball, and present you some news and views on who's hot, who's not, and who's possibly worth a second look. Facts mixed with a healthy dose of opinion is what I hope to offer up for your perusal, and I hope for constructive and lively debate and commentary right back. This is give and take, ladies and gents. We'll work best together, and that's how we'll get the most out of it.

A few little things first:

• Just a reminder that the AL side of the house publishes Tuesdays, and the NL publishes Thursdays. Both will receive my same treatments and attentions!
• Any opinions in these articles are purely my own. They don't necessarily represent COSFBA, any other contributors or writers, MLB, its affiliates and teams... Yada yada quasi-legalese.
• I do not consider myself an expert by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is to give opinions with some factual backing, but any ultimate moves and views are up to you, dear fantasy baseball GM.

Now onto the meat and potatoes!

The article series is going to consist of four sections per article, each featuring at least reliever of personal note for that particular section. In this initial article, I'll take the time to introduce each section, what I look for, and then give my week's picks for each. Starting with the NL article on Thursday, it'll be much more compact and an easier read.

Are we ready? Hope so because. Here. We. GO!

• The first section is called "Doing Work". Put simply, this is the section where the most solid performers over the last week (usually combined with a solid season-to-date) are stationed. In my opinion, this section features players that are likely a known quantity, but if you can find them running free in your league, they're worth an immediate look.
• This week's pick is Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals. While his overall numbers may not astound off the bat (4-3, 4.03 ERA, 15/20 Sv, 33 K, 1.26 WHIP), his more recent performances have been more in-line with his career stats. In his last 10 games (10 IP), he's given up 1 earned run, while racking up 7 saves and 12 Ks. His OPS is a more-than-reasonable .500, which I feel shows that he's turning the corner after a rough start (his current OPS is a lofty .696 on the year). He's coming back to being the closer, and the bright spot, that an overall dismal Royals team needs for any hopes of improvement.
• The next section is "Unsung Heroes".  This section highlights the performances that may have gone "under the radar". There's pitchers that might not be those household names, but I feel like there's value in the hidden gems here. Maybe it's a depth or 6x6 league, or maybe it's someone to look at to steal some stats. It's always going to be someone to keep an eye on.
• The "Unsung Hero" for the week is the Boston Red Sox Daniel Bard. You won't find a better Holds man in the league right now, with a total of 21 holds "in the clubhouse" (4 Holds just in the last 7 days). While this guy won't be giving you big standard numbers (1-4 record, 1/3 Sv), this guy is a massive pick-me-up to the Boston starting staff and long relief. He's only allowed 14% of inherited runners to score (that's 3/22) in 41 G. He's sporting a paltry .492 OPS and a .206 BAbip (Batting Average for Balls In Play). He has 44 Ks in 44 IP. And, oh by the way, he's not allowed a run in his last 19.1 IP. This guy's an unknown (only owned in 19% of ESPN leagues), absolutely rock-solid short reliever who's good for holds and Ks in deep and advanced leagues. He might also be the best available option in the BoSox bullpen for saves if Jonathan Papelbon was to go belly-up for any reason.
• Our third section is known as "The Heart-Attack Award". The recipients of this "award" are decent performers. Their methods, however, are the ones guilty of costing fans and fantasy owners hair, sleep, and quite possibly tens of dollars in antacids weekly. These pitchers will mostly be mid- to upper-tier pitchers that are having the recent up-and-down performances (those that are more prolonged get their own category). While the players in this section aren't ones I feel should be dumped like weeks-old milk, extra caution is advised.
• The first-ever Heart Attack Award goes to the aforementioned Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox. While Paps has notched 4 saves and 10 Ks over the last 7 days, he's given up 3 earned runs (including a longball) and 6 H in 5 IP in the same timeframe. When you take those numbers by themselves, he doesn't seem horrible. But takes these along with this week's line: 3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .669 OPS, .363 BAbip. He's on-pace to give up only 14 BB (close to a career best), but he's also on-pace to give up a career-worst 65 H. My interpretation and opinion is that Paps is either starting to swap his finesse for pure 'power pitching', or the league's hitters are starting to figure him out. His 0.51 GO/AO (Ground Outs / Air Outs) ratio seems to imply that he's getting hit harder (or at least more solidly) this season in comparison. It's something to keep a watch of.
• Lastly, we have the "ZOMBIE!" category. As the name implies, the players mentioned in this section should be avoided unless desperation is in the air. Even then, ensure you have a shotgun or (more appropriately) a baseball bat handy. These players will more than happily eat at your fantasy bottom line (while moaning, "STAAAAAAAAAATS!"). Just remember Rule #22, because it applies to fantasy baseball as much as it does the Zombie Apocalypse: "When in doubt, know your way out!"
• This weeks "ZOMBIE!" is Frank Francisco of the Toronto Blue Jays. Francisco saw limited work in the last 7 days (2 G), and the line was not impressive: 1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB. Yet he somehow managed to notch a save and 3 Ks. Of interest to me is the way he helped set the table for Travis Hafner's game-winning grand slam against Cleveland on Thursday (which is where the majority of that dismal line came from): a 1B, a 2B, and a BB. All this was without getting an out, in an attempt to close out a game that Toronto had well in hand. While he didn't directly give up the game-winner, he set the next pitcher up to have negative margin for error. Francisco is having a terrible year overall on top of the bombshell his last outing (5.92 ERA, 10/14 Sv, 1.849 WHIP, .880 OPS, .368 BAbip), so he is not an attractive option at all as your go-to closer.His viability as even a backup-to-the-backup in a deep league is highly questionable in my mind. There are also rumors flying around that the Toronto front office wants to put him back in a setup role, a move they'd made with Francisco earlier this year when he'd struggled in the closing role. This is a bad trend, and the only reason he'll come back into the closing role later this season is because of the futility of Toronto's 'pen. There are still 71.9% of the owners in ESPN's leagues that have faith in having this pitcher on their roster, but I expect that to drop significantly. There are too many better options.

So there you have it, folks. I promise things will refine and look (and likely sound) a lot clearer with the NL closers on Thursday, but the fluff needed to get out of the way.

Questions, comments, suggestions are always welcome in the boxes below, or by hitting me up on my Twitter feed: @JCPronkFan48

"Now warming, in the left field bullpen..."

Greetings fellow COSFBA'ers (try saying THAT three times fast)!

My name is Jeff Coleman, and I'm happy to be joining you all as a contributing writer in the blogosphere. And while I'm new to the realm here, I'm hoping to provide a fresh outlook and take on things that I hope y'all find informative, entertaining, and maybe a little dazzling, at points.

But first...a little about me:

• 34 years old, currently living in Crothersville, Indiana
• Was born and raised around the outskirts of Cleveland, Ohio (so yes, I bleed Wahoo Red And Blue)
• Spent six years as Air Force Active Duty and am entering Year 3 of Reserves duty, stationed at Travis Air Force Base, California as an aircraft mechanic (so I have a bit of a "soft spot" towards the World Champs, as well)
• A fan of the sport for the sport's sake, not for the names on the front OR back of the jerseys (but yes, I have my favorites, as I mentioned... doesn't everyone?)

I'm sure that's all well and good, but I'm sure y'all want to hear about the upcoming article series, and a bit of my experience with the Grand Ol' Game.

Well...you've got your wish!

I've been following baseball since the mid-80's. Brought up with the Tribe (of course), but found myself liking a lot of the (at that time) underdog-ish teams: the Toronto Blue Jays, the Minnesota Twins, and the Atlanta Braves. So it was immediately apparent that I wasn't just a hometown follower. I like baseball for baseball. Stats appealed to me. I was a weird little kid and liked math.

Go figure.

I didn't get into fantasy baseball until the 2000's but by the time I found that little haven, I was deep into living my life (and giving it away to the military). So I never had the time I wanted to fully partake. I did some Yahoo! H2H public leagues. I think I dabbled in ESPN or CBS Sports, one of those two. But I at least tried to follow the games, the stats. I started looking into this whole "sabermetrics" thing because Billy Beane was a HUGE topic of conversation in Northern California. I spent a lot of the time I could putting together my own 'fantasy' teams in MVP Baseball (and now the MLB 2k series) for my computer and video game system, with mixed results. But it kept me thinking and entertained.

And I hope to do the same with this article series for you fine folks.

The series, called "Warming In The 'Pen", will be focused on closers and other late-inning relief. The guys you look to for saves, holds, late-inning Ks and heroics, and the other funness that tends to fall to the depths of the bullpen staff. Who's hot, who's playing for a shot, who's utterly abysmal and should be avoided at all costs. And the "who's likely to give you a heart attack every night, but is still worth the price of acquiring" (*coughcough*ChrisPerez*coughcough*).

The series will start next week with AL closers being featured on Tuesdays and their NL counterparts appearing on Thursdays. I'm hoping to take in-depth statistical analysis, distill it down to reading even the most casual fantasy fan can get something out of, and present it from a "Joe Every-Fan" perspective, complete with opinions I'm sure some of you will go "Huh???" over.

So that's what you get to look forward to! I hope we'll all get a little something out of it, and have fun doing it!

See everyone next week!

Jeff Coleman
@JCPronkFan48