Playing the Name Game: Who's Who

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" is the third time this season I'll be comparing nameless player's statistics  and hopefully opening your eyes a little bit to how name recognition (and sometimes the lack thereof) can skew the realm of fantasy baseball ownership. This time I'm going to hold back all of the player's names until the end. NOTE: All stats quoted are from games played through June 29th, 2011.

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Let's jump right into the game by comparing the statistics (5x5 style) of a pair of outfielders in Scenario A:

• Player A: .258 BA, 35 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .282 BA, 42 R, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB

Player A is owned in 67.5% of ESPN leagues and just 39% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 84% of Yahoo! leagues. Are the 24 points in batting average, seven runs, two RBI and two stolen bases really worth such a discrepancy in ownership numbers? Here's a hint to guessing their names: neither player's home park would be consider hitter-friendly.

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Let's take a look at another pair of outfielders producing similar stats in Scenario B:

• Player A: .262 BA, 51 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 5 SB
• Player B: .264 BA, 25 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB

Again, pretty similar except for the large discrepancy in runs scored. How could that be explained? What if I told you Player A has had 279 at-bats while Player B has only had 148 at-bats? So, very similar numbers in half the at-bats, except for runs. Player A cost you an ADP of 104.1 while it's safe to say Player B was virtually undrafted. Now let's take a look at ownership numbers. Player A (99.6% E; 86% Y!); Player B (8% E; 5% Y!). Here's a hint to narrow down who they are: both players are on different contending teams in the NL Central.

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Enough with outfielder comparisons for the moment. Check out these pair of first basemen in Scenario C:

• Player A: .173 BA, 20 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB
• Player B: .217 BA, 17 R, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Ugh, why would anyone want to own either of these players with nearly half a season in the books? Fantasy owners got the memo about Player B and have avoided ownership to the tune of 0.4% in ESPN leagues and 1% of Yahoo! leagues. Quite the head-scratcher, though, that Player A is still owned in 83.3% of ESPN leagues and 79% of Yahoo! leagues. Oh right, Player A cost you an ADP of 37.3.

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How about a trio of first basemen with similar numbers up for comparison in Scenario D?:

• Player A: .297 BA, 33 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .272 BA, 33 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB
• Player C: .306 BA, 34 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

Okay, now we're talking. These three are virtually the same player, right? Wrong. Ownership levels are all over the place. Player A is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 90% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in just 43.3% of ESPN leagues and 30% of Yahoo! leagues and lastly, Player C is 91.9% owned in ESPN leagues and 53% of Yahoo! leagues. Over the last 15 days, Player B has three home runs while the other two combined have none.

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Lastly, let's compare a pair of young catchers with a ton of potential but I wonder if that potential is another year away from being realized after looking at Scenario E:

• Player A: .226 BA, 36 R, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB
• Player B: .226 BA, 24 R, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB

Again, other than runs scored and a few bonus steals, these catchers are providing nearly the same level of offense to a fantasy team. Both players are 25 years old but the perception of each is quite different. Player A has only played 2/3rds of his games at catcher and the other 1/3rd at first base and owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 95% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B has caught nearly the same amount of games but stuck in a perceived 60/40 split of time with a veteran catcher and owned in 50.9% of ESPN leagues and 52% of Yahoo! leagues.

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Enough with the player comparisons already, right? Let's get to revealing the player's names after the break.

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Playing the Name Game

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" takes another look at player comparisons without knowing their names. Name recognition tends to sway our interpretation of a player's overall fantasy value. This exercise in player evaluating will help you find some waiver wire gems who are being overlooked by others in your leagues.

I'll run through a few of these comparisons (using standard 5x5 categories) for your fantasy baseball viewing pleasure and hopefully give you something to mull over as you assess your roster(s). NOTE: All statistics quoted are for games played through June 8th, 2011 and ownership numbers are from ESPN leagues.

• Player A: .310 BA (57/184), 29 R, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 2 SB
• Player B: .316 BA (55/174), 25 R, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB

Okay, not much difference here when you compare simple 5x5 lines. Too be fair, both players qualify at the same position. A deeper look into their numbers show Player A has 20 XBH and Player B has 22 XBH. Player B has walked 20 times while Player A has 19 walks. Hmmmm. Player A has a .890 OPS compared to Player B's .918 OPS. Still looking like pretty even players across the board. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .345 BABIP, a .389 wOBA and a wRC+ of 145 while Player B has a .324 BABIP, a .396 wOBA and a wRC+ of 143. These guys are virtually twins of the baseball diamond. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Mitch Moreland and Player B is Todd Helton.

My fantasy perspective: Are you ready to know the stark difference between these two players? Moreland is 100% owned compared to Helton's 51% ownership rate. Moreland is looked upon as a young player on an offensively potent team with tons of potential while Helton is viewed as a player with injury concerns on the downside of his player career. The numbers tell us different.

• Player A: .293 BA (63/215), 34 R, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 9 SB
• Player B: .265 BA (58/219), 39 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 5 SB

Again, to be fair for comparison reasons, these two players both qualify at the same position. Player A has a significant advantage in batting average and nearly twice the stolen bases than Player B while the other three scoring categories can be considered a wash to this point in the season. Each player has 21 XBH but Player B has a significant 34 to 10 advantage in walks over Player A. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .341 BABIP, a .335 wOBA and a wRC+ of 111 while Player B has a .317 BABIP, a .357 wOBA and a wRC+ of 127. Not a ton of difference here and I can see making a case to own either of these players. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Corey Patterson and Player B is Colby Rasmus.

My fantasy perspective: When I hear Patterson's name, I think of a player who hasn't had much of a career since 2008. But a deeper look into his Baseball-Refernce.com player page shows a 2004 season where he went 24/32 (HR/SB) and a 2006 season of 16/45. I'm not suggesting he's going to put up numbers like those in 2011 at 31 years of age but he has proven the ability to produce at the major league level. Rasmus is a 24 year old fantasy stud with many great seasons ahead of him and who deserves his 100% ownership rate but why is Patterson only owned in 69.2% of leagues?

This simple exercise of looking at the scoring category numbers that matter in your league and searching the waiver wires for the players who can fill those needs will make your team better. The hard part is knowing when to cut ties with the players with obvious name recognition for the players possibly available on waivers who can help your team win. And knowing is half the battle.

Playing the Name Game

We've all seen the fantasy baseball articles where the writer will compare one nameless player's statistics to another nameless player's statistics and then hit you with a ton of reasons why you should be looking past simple name recognition if you want to be winning your fantasy baseball league. And do you know why you see articles of this type all over the fantasy baseball blogosphere? Because they're very helpful when evaluating your roster and the "who's who" out there on waivers.

I'll run through a few of my own comparisons (using standard 5x5 categories) for your fantasy baseball viewing pleasure and hopefully give you something to mull over as you assess your roster(s).

• Player A: .321 BA (17/53), 15 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .255 BA (24/94), 15 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB

Simple comparisons show that Player A has only gotten roughly half the at-bats that Player B has received so far but has been able to score the same amount of runs, hit the same number of home runs and steal the same amount of bases, all with a higher batting average and just four less RBI. A deeper look into another statistic shows Player A has an .956 OPS while Player B's is .691. Any guesses yet? Well, Player A is Casey Blake and Player B is Martin Prado. Blake is owned in 12.4% of ESPN leagues and Prado is 100% owned, as he should be.

My fantasy perspective: Blake has settled in as the Dodgers' number two hitting and should get plenty of opportunities to continue scoring runs with the likes of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier tearing it up behind him, as long as he keeps getting on base. His value comes in deeper mixed leagues that utilize an extra CI and/or IF roster spot or in the much shallower NL-only format. Prado owners shouldn't be concerned.

• Player A: .282 BA (22/78), 11 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB
• Player B: .311 BA (28/90), 10 R, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB

Not a ton of difference here other than the fact that Player B hasn't shown the ability to hit a home run yet. A deeper look into their player profiles shows that Player A has walked 15 times compared to Player B's six times. Both players qualify at 2B, while Player B also qualifies at SS. Player B leads all 2B-eligible players with 28 hits this season. Any guesses? Player A is 100% owned Dustin Pedroia while Player B is 54.6% owned Ryan Theriot.

My fantasy perspective: Theriot is another of those players manager Tony LaRussa loves to pencil in at the top of his lineup card night after night. His value comes in the runs and stolen base categories while not hurting you in batting average (career .285 average). He won't help you much in home runs or RBI. His 2B/SS eligibility could help you in those deeper mixed leagues with an MI position or the shallow NL-only leagues. Pedroia owners should start to see even more benefits to their investment now that the Red Sox offense seems to be firing on all cylinders.

• Player A: 0-2, 26 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
• Player B: 3-2, 29 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

To start off, each of these pitchers have started five games this season and recorded four quality starts. Player A has allowed two runs or less in four starts and had his bullpen blow three chances for a win. Player B has allowed just one earned run and nine hits in his last three starts (20.2 innings pitched). Any guesses who these pitchers are yet? Player A is 100% owned Chris Carpenter while Player B is 39.1% owned Randy Wolf.

My fantasy perspective: Carpenter has been a tough luck recipient of a bullpen in flux but should benefit now that Mitchell Boggs has been named the closer and acting like one (3-for-3 in save opportunities). Wins aren't an easy stat to predict but he'll give you the the ERA, WHIP and K's we've come to expect from him. Wolf is in a groove and should be streamed, if not owned, for his next start against the Astros.

• Player A: .283 BA (28/99), 13 R, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .216 BA (16/74), 10 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB

This is the classic case of owners drafting a player based on potential and hanging on to him longer than warranted. Player A was virtually undrafted while Player B cost owners an ADP of 67.7. So what's an owner to do when saddled with Player B, one that's cost them such a high pick? Sell low? Cut and run? There aren't many options for owners (such as myself) who thought this could be a bounce-back season for B.J. Upton other than to either keep running him out there and taking the good (5 SB) with the bad (.216 BA) or keeping him on the bench to limit the damage and hope he turns it around soon. Oh, Player A is Melky Cabrera and he's only 19.5% owned. Nothing sexy about throwing his name around fantasy baseball circles but he's currently playing with a renewed fire and has value in leagues using lots of outfield roster spots.

Doing exercises such as these regularly will help you not fall in love with a player's name recognition or your personal investment you have in him. And it is even easy to do if you're in a one-and-done league rather than a keeper or dynasty format. Just make wise decisions when it comes to the waiver wire because in no world am I suggesting you ever drop Upton to pick up Melky. But dropping Julio Borbon (.214/3/0/4/2) for Cabrera wouldn't be a difficult move to make at this point. Just be ready to do the opposite should Borbon turn things around.

What types of fantasy baseball articles are you finding most valuable to your teams on the web these days? Player projections? Injury updates? Waiver wire gems? Hot players being added or why others are being dropped? Let me know so I can continue to tailor the content COSFBA has to offer the competitive fantasy baseball player in this, just year two, of a site that continues to find its place in the blogosphere.