2011 Draft Results: First Basemen Targeted

If you are new to the world of fantasy baseball, you should be very aware that first base is traditionally a position of great depth filled with some of the most impactful players. Heading into the 2011 season, this still holds true. MockDraftCentral.com is showing 10 of the top 50 players being drafted currently qualify as first basemen. If your league uses a corner infielder (CI or 1B/3B), extra infielder (IF), designated hitter (DH) or even a utility slot (UTIL) or two, there's a great opportunity to add one or more of these highly coveted players.

I went into all of my drafts having some players within the different tiers of first basemen as targets but draft position was really going to determine who I grabbed in the early rounds and how that would shape my entire roster. I wound up drafting 1st, 6th, 8th and 7th in my four snake drafts which meant three of my four drafts would have a lot of familiar faces...so I thought.

But before getting to the snake draft results, I wanted to talk about my online auction draft, which had me aggressively biding for the players I deemed "must have" and produced some interesting results:

• Adam Dunn, CHW ($30)
• Paul Konerko, CHW ($20)
• Mitch Moreland, TEX ($4)
• Dan Johnson, TB ($1)

I was in on all of the big name first basemen (Pujols, Miggy, AGon, etc) early but wound up bailing when I realized the prices were going to go a lot higher than I was willing to go. That strategy allowed me to focus in on and win such big names as Tulo ($39) and CarGo ($34) and drop down into the next tier of players and outbid everyone for a nice Dunn/Konerko duo to fill my 1B and CI roster slots. Moreland was a definite "sleeper" target while  Johnson was simply a late-round flier to add some possible depth to my bench, IF he wins the starting job in Tampa Bay. There were 390 players drafted in this league, so I fell pretty confident in what I was able to acquire and look forward to putting this plan into action.

2011 Starting Pitcher Sleepers

(In my continued effort to bring additional voices and perspectives to COSFBA, this article is being brought to you by guest writer KJ Hanna. KJ was one of the first people I connected with on Twitter and actually lives in the same part of Brooklyn, NY where I grew up. He's had his fantasy baseball work featured on both FantasyBaseball101.com and BigTroph.com. I hope you find as much value in his contribution to this site as I do.)

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Ahh, the dreaded word ALL fantasy experts and drafters love and hate…SLEEPER.  Another word equally as poisonous… BOUNCEBACK. The great thing about the fantastic sport of baseball is there will always be players who fall into one or both of these categories. Luckily for you, the owner, we have already crunched the numbers and taken out most of the guess work.

You’ve all heard this already but, starting pitching is deep this year and you shouldn’t reach early for a SP early. That is, unless your league’s scoring settings heavily rewards SPs or you’re in a keeper/dynasty league. That being said, it’s in my opinion that you make your move in the middle to late rounds for pitchers and these are a few you should target.

The objective to identifying a sleeper starting pitcher is to determine which players have the upside to outperform their current draft position and provide your fantasy team with an advantage over the rest of your league at a low cost/draft pick.

AL SP Sleepers

Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
Hellickson, the Rays stud prospect du jour got a huge boost once Matt Garza was traded to the Cubs in the offseason. He now has the chance to build upon his impressive numbers when called up in 2010, 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 33 strikeouts and eight walks in 31 1/3 innings.

Notably revered to be more of a control pitcher, Hellickson is deceiving in his assortment of pitches and has the potential to become an ace, however, expect peaks and valleys, especially as he gets more acquainted with the AL East mashers.

Beyond the occasional long ball and a few rookie hiccups, the only negative I can see with “Hell Boy” is that the Rays may shut him down early, limiting his innings. In that case, all formats should feel confident in grabing him in mid-late rds and sell high come July (except in Keeper/Dynasty leagues).

Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
I know, most of you are thinking, "Scherzer, a sleeper?". That’s right readers! After an awful start to 2010 (7.29 ERA in April and half of May) and a minor league demotion, Scherzer came back to the majors with a blazing fastball and an appetite for strikeouts.

In Scherzer’s return to the majors, he posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 158 strikeouts and FINALLY showed his potential and quieted the “bust” whispers. Scherzer has the talent to become an elite fantasy starter and should be on everyone’s radar in all league formats in mid rounds on draft day. Draft with confidence.

Edwin Jackson – Chicago White Sox
EJax is an enigma. Is he an Ace or a tease? After moving to the AL, Jackson put together some fantastic strikeout and walk numbers which was a great sign of things to hopefully come. Jackson’s K/9 with the Dbacks was 6.98, with the White Sox 9.24! Not only did his K/BB improve but his fastball launched from 94 MPH to 95.3 MPH AND he lowered his overall ERA by almost 2 runs!

Jax is going late enough to take a risk/reward approach with him. His skills are pointing the way to a very productive season with plenty of run support from a stacked White Sox lineup. Grab him in the late rounds and reap the benefits in all league formats.

Ups and Downs: 03/18/2011

As we continue to get closer to Opening Day, now seems like an appropriate time to publish another edition of Ups and Downs. Jobs are being won, injuries aren't healing as quickly as expected, veterans are being released and rookies are being sent to the minors. Here are the ones catching my eye and the impact they could have on your fantasy baseball roster.

Stock is Rising:

• C/1B/3B/OF Jake Fox, BAL leads the MLB in home runs this Spring with seven while hitting .356 (16/45) yet still fighting to make in onto the Orioles' Opening Day roster. Let's get something straight, though. Spring stats don't matter. If Fox catches on with the Orioles as a super utility guy with catcher eligibility, he could be worth a very late round pick in deep mixed leagues with two-catcher rosters. Is he really much worse than having to select Jeff Mathis?
• 3B Chipper Jones, ATL is hitting .386 this Spring with three home runs and 11 RBI and looking healthy...for the moment. There will always be the risk of injury with Jones but at the moment, he's playing himself back into fantasy relevant. We all keep hearing that third base is going to be shallow in 2011 and even shallower if your league uses an extra CI or IF position. Keep an eye on his health as Spring winds down or at least until your league drafts.
• 1B Chris Davis, TEX has been touted as a sleeper for the last few years and hasn't produced enough when given the chance to help most fantasy owners. Well, this Spring, Davis is hitting .410 (16/39) with four home runs and an MLB-best 15 RBI as rumblings of "play me or trade me" start coming out of Texas. Will there be enough at bats to hand out with Michael Young and Mitch Moreland in the picture? Keep a close eye on how this one continues to play out over the next couple of weeks and you could truly have a sleeper on your hands as most owners are targeting Moreland late in drafts.
• OF Michael Morse, WAS seems to be playing himself into the Nationals' starting left fielder with a very hot Spring. He's hitting .385 (15/39) with five home runs and showing the 20-25 HR potential he displayed last season (15 HR in 266 AB).
• SP Jered Weaver, LAA is currently the 11th starting pitcher being drafted, according to
  MockDraftCentral.com. So far this Spring, Weaver has pitched 13.1 innings and produced a 17/0 K/BB ratio. Somehow Zack Greinke is still being drafted ahead of Weaver. Absorb that information when you select Weaver as your fantasy baseball ace.

Finding Keepers: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres may find ways to win a lot of games in the NL West this season and stay competitive but they will be doing so with very few keeper worthy players. Funny how trading 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox turned him from an upper-tier option at first base into an elite one.

With Gonzalez off the roster now, the Padres highest-ranked fantasy player according to the ESPN Player Rater was CL Heath Bell. Now, in a game that most pundits will say "never pay for saves", having your closer be your best option for a fantasy keeper is not necessarily a good thing. On the plus side, Bell was 6-1 with 47 Saves, had a 1.93 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an 11.1 K/9 ratio. So if you want to use a keeper selection on him, you'll probably get very good numbers in return for doing so. Probably? That word doesn't exactly instill confidence.

SP Mat Latos went from being virtually undrafted in most leagues in 2010 to producing an 8th-place finish in the 2010 NL Cy Young Award with a 14-10 record, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 K's in 184.2 innings pitched. Those strikeout numbers translated to robust ratios of 9.2 K/9 and 3.78 K/BB. Those kinds of numbers matched with his potential for a big 2011 currently have him being drafted on MockDraftCentral.com at 72.17 with such fantasy pitching studs as Justin Verlander (66.12), Josh Johnson (72.40) and Francisco Liriano (79.91). Lock him up and enjoy the ride.

The only player on the Padres projecting to hit 20 or more home runs in 2011 is OF Ryan Ludwick. That surely doesn't bode well for a team that had the 22nd-ranked offense in 2010. Unfortunately, a 21 HR, 82 RBI, .270 hitting outfielder with no speed doesn't deserve a keeper selection but it will get him drafted as a third or fourth outfield option.

If SS Jason Bartlett was able to put up 2009 numbers again (.320/90/14/66/30) he'd be a no-brainer keeper option for 2011 at what's projecting to be a very thin position. Unfortunately, those numbers look more and more like a statistical anomaly. He'll probably get drafted in very deep, mixed leagues or NL-only leagues and could reward some owners with a decent, if not surprising, return on investment. But probably not.

Finding Keepers: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are a franchise that has made the decision to go young and so that is going to limit the number of fantasy keepers on their roster that are proven stars but that doesn't mean that don't have keeper-worthy players.

OF Hunter Pence is this team's no-brainer when it comes to finding the keepers. At 27 years old, Pence is showing consistency and growth potential. He's hit 25 home runs in each of his last three seasons, batted .282 in his last two season and reached a career high in stolen bases with 18 in 2010. I think you know what you're getting with Pence and that is a very attractive quality in a keeper candidate.

OF Michael Bourn has averaged (per 162 games played) a line of 78/3/31/.263/50 compared to Juan Pierre's line of 92/1/44/.298/54. I was on the fence whether or not to call Pierre a keeper. I feel even less strongly about whether Bourn is a keeper. If you like the thought of a guaranteed 50 stolen bases on your roster then both of these players are probably keepers in your mind. Again, single-category dominance is definitely a factor when evaluating a keeper selection but Bourn will hurt you in four of the five standard scoring categories. It's a "no" for me.

Based on SP Wandy Rodriguez's first-half statistics (18 GS, 6-11, 10 QS, 1 ND, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.93 K/BB), Wandy was barely worth rostering. Based on his second-half statistics (14 GS, 5-1, 13 QS, 8 ND, 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.61 K/BB), he threw up some elite numbers. The question remains: Which Wandy shows up in 2011?

Finding Keepers: Detroit Tigers

It's not hard to find keepers on the Detroit Tigers considering they have an MVP candidate, Cy Young candidate and the runner-up Rookie of the Year candidate. 1B Miguel Cabrera ranked fifth overall on ESPN's Player Rater with a robust line of .328/111/38/126/3 and shows no signs of slowing down at just 27 years old. With career averages of 101 runs, 34 HR and 120 RBI per 162 games, Cabrera is the perfect player to build your fantasy baseball team around for years to come.

SP Justin Verlander won 18 games this season, striking out an AL fourth-best 219 batters and ranking as the tenth-best starting pitcher on ESPN but surprisingly garnered only one fifth place vote in the AL Cy Young race. Have no fear, though, in using a keeper selection on a pitcher with a 20-win, 220 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP potential as the cornerstone of your fantasy baseball pitching staff.

Some may feel that OF Austin Jackson has too many holes in his game (only four home runs while striking out 170 times) to warrant a keeper tag but I find it hard not to want to keep a 23-year old outfielder that batted .293 and lead all rookies with 181 hits, 103 runs and 23 stolen bases while finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Keeping him comes with risk but could pay off big dividends if he figures out how to make better contact and hit a few more home runs.

Injury Bug Bites Hard This Spring

Many teams are fighting the injuries this Spring (none harder than the Mets) and all have fantasy baseball impact. Here's a look at some of the more significant injuries and the replacement players that may benefit in the short-term.

• CL Joe Nathan, MIN (elbow) - Nathan is done for the year. No surprise here. There was speculation that SP Francisco Liriano would step into the closer role until he came out and said he didn't want it. The surprise is that in a matter of days, manager Ron Gardenhire went from a "closer-by-committee" approach including RHP Matt Guerrier, RHP Jon Rauch and LHP Jose Mijares to "officially" naming Jon Rauch the closer. Rauch needs to be 100% owned.
• 1B Lance Berkman, HOU (knee) - Not a good sign when the player says he's not sure he'll be ready to come off the DL when eligible. Hopefully he only misses a couple of weeks, but be prepared for this injury to linger if he rushes back. Rotowire.com says, "The plan calls for 3B Pedro Feliz to stay at third against righties with UTL Geoff Blum playing first base. When the Astros face a lefty, rookie 3B Chris Johnson will start at third with Feliz shifting over to first."
• OF Carlos Beltran, NYM (knee) - Beltran could be out until June. Hopefully you were aware of this fact when you drafted him and planned your outfield accordingly. OF Angel Pagan and OF Gary Matthews Jr. are expected to pick up the slack until Beltran returns. Neither is a viable fantasy option unless one of them gets off to a hot start.
• SS Jose Reyes, NYM (thyroid) - Reyes had already slipped down many fantasy draft boards after his horrendous 2009 season and the discovery of a thyroid condition this Spring isn't helping his value. Not officially on the DL yet, it's hard to figure out what to do with him on your roster. A wait-and-see approach will provide you with nothing but waiver fodder. I hope you planned ahead or just avoided Reyes all together for 2010. MI Alex Cora is expected to fill in during the Reyes absence.
• SP Cliff Lee, SEA (abdomen) - A timetable hasn't been determined for his return and a trip to the DL hasn't been ruled out. Toss in a "pending" five-game suspension and it could be a while before Lee returns. Not wait Mariners fans and Lee owners were hoping for in 2010.
• 2B Ian Kinsler, TEX (ankle) - Kinsler hasn't participated in drills recently and there is no timetable set for his return. Assume a few weeks unless positive news starts coming out of Texas.
• CL Brad Lidge, PHI (elbow) - Reports are that he'll be out until "at least" mid-April. RHP Ryan Madson has been named the interim closer and could claim the job long-term if Lidge comes back and falters like he did in 2010. Sleeper closer candidate - RHP Danys Baez averaged 32 saves over 2003 - 2005.
• SP Joe Blanton, PHI (oblique) - He's expected to miss 3-to-6 weeks. RHP Kyle Kendrick is the beneficiary of Blanton's injury but has limited fantasy value other than a spot start for a possible favorable match-up.
• OF Coco Crisp, OAK (finger, hamstring) - Crisp was dinged up before fracturing his pinkie. OF Travis Buck makes the team but it's unclear who benefits from Crisp's injury.
• 1B Russell Branyan, CLE (back) - Branyan was nothing more than a late round flier at best but his injury ensures OF Matt LaPorta gets a chance to shine and could be a very valuable late roound/waiver wire pick up.
• 3B Alex Gordon, KC (thumb) - Gordon is a favorite "bounce back" candidate for 2010 and shouldn't miss much time. Stash him on the DL and pick up anyone that won't hurt your team in his absence (as if someone could do worse than him).
• SP Scott Kazmir, LAA (back, hamstring) - Scott should only miss one start as he looks to regain strength. He's owned in 100% of ESPN leagues because everyone keeps hoping he reaches his potential. Grab him if he was dropped and stash him.
• SP Gil Meche, KC (shoulder) - Meche shouldn't be out long and is the perfect guy to spot start with favorable match-ups, at best.
• SP Erik Bedard, SEA (shoulder) - Bedard could have been had cheap in the late rounds or even better, off waivers after drafts. He won't be ready to go until June, at best, but could be a valuable starter down the stretch, if healthy. Stash him on the DL and be patient.
• CL Houston Street, COL (shoulder) - The Rockies recently shut him down and that can't be good. Estimates originally had him returning by May. Pay close attention to his rehab process if you own him. In the mean time, LHP Franklin Morales and ex-closer RHP Manny Corpas should be owned by someone in your league.
• 2B Freddy Sanchez, SF (shoulder) - He's expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks but has little to no fantasy value except for his batting average in a deep mixed league with a middle infielder roster spot. 2B/3B/SS Juan Uribe benefits from Sanchez's injury but also has limited fantasy value in deep mixed leagues.
• 1B/OF Daniel Murphy, NYM (knee) - Murphy was shaping up to be a nice late round pick until being sidelined 2-to-6 weeks with a knee injury. 1B Mike Jacobs and 1B/3B/OF Fernando Tatis are expected to platoon in his absence.

Are there other injuries (large or small) that are impacting your team(s) or have you benefited from a waiver pickup at some other managers expense?

Washington Nationals: DOs and DON'Ts

• DO handcuff CL Matt Capps and SU Brian Bruney together if your league counts Holds. Capps was signed to be the closer but he did struggle in 2009. Hopefully we don't hear the word "committee" coming out of Washington this season.
• DON'T forget about SP Chien-Ming Wang. He was a 2-time 19-game winner in the AL. If he can recover from his injuries, he could be a nice late-round "sleeper".
• DO hold your breath that 1B/OF Adam Dunn hits closer to .270 than .230. Either way, he makes another strong run at 40 HRs and an OBP near .400.
• DON'T be afraid to draft 3B Ryan Zimmerman early. He' going as early as the late 2nd round. If you like 100/35/100/.300 and aren't sold on Arizona's Mark Reynolds, grab Zimmerman if you have the opportunity.
• DO draft OF Nyjer Morgan if your team is light on speed. He stole 24 bases with a .396 OBP in 49 games after being traded to Washington.
• DON'T expect too much from OF Elijah Dukes until he gets his head on straight. I'm tired of drafting him and his 20/20 potential. Let him be someone else's headache. *UPDATE* Dukes released by Nats
• DO monitor the situation at shortstop this Spring. I'd rather draft rookie SS Ian Desmond than Christian Guzman.
• DON'T go crazy for SP Stephen Strasburg. He's been drafted as early as the 140's. That's before proven hurlers such as Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. A late-round pick should definitely be used if your pitching staff is already solid. *UPDATE* Strasburg optioned to Double-A

Players I'd be willing to use a late-round pick on:

• OF Josh Willingham (25 HR potential, if healthy, as a 5th OF option)
• SS Ian Desmond (2009 in the bigs: .280/4HR in 21 games)