The Knurve To Say: Second Half Guarantees

This week, I have The Knurve to Say...
…the following eight things will happen in the second half!

1. Matt Kemp ends the year going 40/40. I know I have my Mike Stanton Mancrush, but my Kemp one is growing, as well. What’s not to like about a guy who's doing what he’s doing and is putting a team and an organization on his back? Sure, he was an embarrassment in the All-Star Game, but he's going to keep doing in the second half exactly what he did in the first half. If you take a look at his peripherals, his better batting eye and improved luck has contributed to his ascension. He's taking more walks than he did last year and he's striking out a little less. He's choosing better pitches to hit, he's hitting them, and he's running when he can.
2. The Chicago White Sox will win the AL Central, and it's going to be close with the…Detroit Tigers. I just can't do it. I can’t convince myself that the Cleveland Indians will hang in here. I expect improved performances from underperformers like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham alongside stronger pitching from John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson. There's too much talent, albeit streaky, on this White Sox team to think they can't win this division. I'm still a believer that this is their division to lose.
3. There are several guys who I think are at their peak value that I would look to deal while they’re this good. I know this may sound crazy, but many people in your league would consider Adrian Gonzalez the best player in the game right now. But I would use his Home Run Derby performance to your advantage if you own him. I think next year is the year we see the power out of him that we were all expecting. I think Gonzalez hits closer to the low 30's than the 40+ people expected. If you can fill holes with Gonzalez, who doesn’t contribute anything to one category as it is, then go ahead and sell him in a two-for-one. I feel the same way about Lance Berkman, Jair Jurrjens, Brennan Boesch and Michael Morse.
4. On the opposite end, here are guys who will have big second halves: Troy Tulowitzki (because he always does), Ichiro Suzuki, Rios, Dunn, Bud Norris, Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez.
5. If you want more in-depth answers on why I feel the way I do about the players in bullets #3 and #4, leave a comment.
6. Behind Kemp, the most valuable outfielder will be Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm starting to believe that he is capable of these power numbers. He's already eclipsed his career high in the majors or minors for one season, but I think the fact that he’s fully healthy and hitting in front of that offense makes him seeeeeeexy.
7. The Toronto Blue Jays win the AL Wild Card. I know it's bold, but I made this prediction on my blog at the beginning of the season and I'm sticking to it. They've had some disappointing offensive performers, but I think they are all capable of bouncing back. Aaron Hill will pick it up, Brett Lawrie will be an immediate contributor, Rajai Davis will have another fabulous second half, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista will keep mashing, and the pitching around Ricky Romero will be better. I believe in the Jays, and I don't think the New York Yankees pitching can be this good anymore. I think Bartolo Colon's outing on Thursday is indicative of bad things to come for the their rotation, especially with Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano's health problems and no Joba Chamberlain.
8. My division winners are: NL West: Giants, NL Central: Brewers, NL East: Phils, NL Wildcard: Braves, AL West, Rangers, AL Central: White Sox, AL East: Red Sox, AL Wildcard: Blue Jays.

No "Thoughts From The Week That Was" this week, so we're going to hop straight into the "Mike Stanton Mancrush Meter". Right now, it sits at a 5. He dropped 2 homers on Saturday in Wrigley, meaning he could be primed for a huge second half. Because of those two bombs, coupled with the fact that he's tweeting more, I will bump the meter up to a 7. And with my family potentially planning a trip to Miami to see a baseball game, the thought of seeing him in person is making me all oogly-googly.

Joke of the week: In the talks to decide where we may go for this vacation, my mother asked me "if there would be available seats at a Marlins game."

Follow me on @TheKnurve. Much love everybody.

The Knurve To Say: July 11th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...the Braves are about to begin a dynasty.

Hey, the article isn’t called “The Knurve to Say” for no reason! I was having a conversation with one of my buddies who’s a Braves fan the other day. As we were talking about this team, I kept getting more and more shocked when I kept talking about how good this team is and how young they are.

Let’s start with the pitching. Sure, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are getting up there in years. But when you think about Jair Jurrjens (25), Tommy Hanson (24), and Brandon Beachy (24), there’s elite potential in each of those guys. And don’t forget about the two guys the Braves have in AAA right now. Mike Minor is only 23 and Julio Teheran is 20! Twenty years old and he’s already tasted the majors. They also have one guy in AA named Randall Delgado who the Braves consider a top 3 prospect in their own system and he's 21. And we haven’t even gotten to who I think is the best of these prospects, Kris Medlen. If you’ll remember, Medlen got hurt at the end of last year and needed Tommy John surgery after getting hit by a batted ball. I think this could dramatically help his career because it wasn’t like there was THAT much structural damage to the elbow and the Braves were just being cautious. With basically a new arm, Medlen could be scary in the next few years.

When we look at their bullpen, Jonny Venters is 26 and he has some of the best stuff in the majors. Craig Kimbrel, 23, looks like a competent closer of the future with a big arm and great stuff. Eric O’Flaherty is another middle relief guy who is just 26 with an ERA sitting at 1.10 at the halfway point this season.

The hitting is not as promising as the pitching, but it’s still pretty darn good. Jason Heyward is only going to get better in the next few years and he will anchor this offense for a very long time. I don’t see Freddie Freeman getting much better than he is now but I can see him being a solid 25/100 guy who is a good defender and will hit in the .290-.300 range for his career. Brian McCann is only 27, but people think he’s much older since he’s been in the league for five years now. I also have to think this year is an aberration for Dan Uggla. None of his peripherals indicate a decline and his game is pretty straightforward. He’s an abnormally large man playing a relatively evasive position and I can see him performing well for the duration of his contract.

Those four guys are still very young and have enormous potential. I think the Braves have let Beachy, Minor, Teheran, and Medlan taste the majors at such a young age so they can use them as chips to make moves to shore up their offense long-term. I trust Frank Wren and I trust the Braves brand of clean and consistent baseball. They show up and get the job done, and with their youthful and talented arms, the outlook for this franchise is among the brightest in the game.

My opinion: I’ll arbitrarily say the Braves win four World Series this decade if everybody stays healthy. Why the hell not?

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I’d be remiss if I didn't mention the tragedy in Texas last week. I can’t imagine how terrible that family feels, especially the man’s son. There’s nothing good about this situation but it seems like the Texas Rangers are handling this very supportively and professionally. Hopefully some good will come of this despite it being such a terrible situation.
• Hanley Ramirez is back. Get him if you can.
• Uggla’s catching on. I think last year really spoiled Uggla owners as to his potential. Remember, before last year, he was a .250 hitter who would get his 30 home runs and 95+ RBI. In July, he’s been a .250 hitter with two dingers and five RBI. His final line will look like .230 or so, but that means he’s going to have a big second half.
• Joey Votto is overrated. Sure he’s posting an elite slash line (.325/.440/.510). Sure he’s walking a ton and scoring runs. But when push comes to shove, he’s on pace for 25 HR/100 RBI. And while fantasy owners aren't upset with those numbers, people who have drafted guys like Ryan Howard and Paul Konerko for much cheaper are getting better numbers at a much better value.
• Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre and Emilio Bonifacio are all speedsters I’m buying right now. If you can get them for cheap, have at it.
• Given J. J. Putz’s injury history the past few years, if you have David Hernandez and you have space on your bench, hang onto him. He’s been cash money for the past two weeks and he’s worth keeping around.

The Mike Stanton Man-crush Meter was at a 3 last week. Many of you know I was very disappointed in Mike ‘the skull crusher’ Stanton, but he put together quite a week last week. I’m going to put it back up to a 5 this week. It would be a 6, but one of his homers went less than 400 feet and if I’m going to invest some of my love in another man, he’s going to need to hit every homer more than 400 feet. It’s that simple.

Joke of the week: Hot Dog walks into a bar, bartender says “we don’t serve food here.”

Have a great week everybody! Follow me @TheKnurve with questions or comments and follow fellow contributor @JCPronkFan48 for all things relief pitching-related.

Hanrahan for MVP????

In this past week's article, I had The Knurve to Say Brian McCann has been the best catcher in the majors the past few years and it wasn't even close. But we also got a little feedback when I said, "IF the Pirates make the playoffs then Joel Hanrahan could be the NL MVP."

I said it was bold. I said the masses would revolt. And they did: Dropped Strike Three is making me explain.

I don't want to be a little wienie right away, but I want to make a distinction. I said NL MVP, not Fantasy MVP. So as good as he's been fantasy-wise, the people who are expecting a regression are correct in their inquiries.

The guy has been fantastic and I don't see anything in his peripherals which suggests a regression beyond any performance we've seen out of him so far this season. The first statistic many fantasy analysts look at to determine luck is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The mean for this is around .300. Hanrahan's career BABIP is .320 and this season he sits at a pretty .262. His Strand Rate is around 84%, so we should expect to see a regression to the average of 72%. His HR/FB also sits at a somewhat low 3.4%, and you'd expect that to regress upwards.

But I'd argue there are a two caveats to these rates that statistics like xFIP don't take into account. The two caveats are Groundball Percentage and Walks per 9. If you think about it logically, a lower BABIP is sustainable if hitters can't lift the ball above the first line of defense, the infield. A higher strand rate is sustainable if the ball stays on the ground because extra bases are hard to come by if you don't push the ball into the gaps. And if those ground balls do get past the infield, it won't be as damaging if the pitcher has allowed fewer guys on base with fewer pitches.

That being said, Hanrahan is posting spectacular career bests in both GB% and BB/9 and is among the league leaders in both categories among relievers. I'm not saying those numbers can't regress at all, but I am saying that he might not be too far off from his 1.37 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

I think Hanrahan's fantasy performance is sustainable because of his control and ability to force ground balls. No, he probably won't finish the season perfect in save chances but if the Pirates do manage to snag a winnable NL Central with a run differential of 0, where it sits now, then there's only one person they will have to thank....Mr. Joel Hanrahan.

Remember this: MVP voting is up to the writers.

I'd love some more feedback. Please use the comments section or hit me up on Twitter!

The Knurve To Say: July 5th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...not only is Brian McCann the best catcher in baseball now, but he has been the best for the past five years.

When my love of fantasy baseball was developing, I had one player who I wanted to get on my team every year; Placido Polanco. He was a great defender for the Tigers, he hit for average, he scored runs, it was awesome. But after a while, I realized how purely marginal a phenomenal batting average is when a player doesn’t contribute anywhere else. It’s the same reason you could argue Tony Gwynn was such an overrated fantasy player outside of his prime because he hit for a good average and did nothing else.

But just as Gwynn received so much hype during his career, I think Joe Mauer is the same, if not worse. The top three catchers in the past five or six years have been Mauer, Victor Martinez, and McCann. In looking back at the numbers, Martinez and McCann are a cut above, fantasy-wise.

Many fantasy baseball owners are like I was when I was younger (not to belittle fantasy baseball owners by comparing them with my childhood stupidity). We are fascinated with batting average. We can see a .320+ AVG and totally neglect the other holes in a player’s game, and this is the year where we notice the entirety of Mauer’s flaws, especially since McCann is having such a phenomenal year.

The McCann-Mauer comparison isn’t even close in my eyes, and that’s even taking into account 2009, when Mauer had his MVP year. When we evaluate players year-to-year in fantasy, we want to see consistency and consistent contributions. Mauer’s 2009 has set the table for a profoundly disappointing 2010 and, so far, 2011. The reason I think this is worthy of noting and worthy of writing this is because of the position they play. Unless you over-invest, fantasy owners don’t expect phenomenal production from their catchers. But the reason McCann has been better, is better now, and will be better than Mauer is because he contributes more consistently in more categories from a position you don’t expect much out of.

My opinion: From now on, stay the heck away from Mauer and players like him. There will always be someone in your league who thinks his batting average potential is worth way more than it actually is.

Thoughts from the past week that was:

• Hanley Ramirez is back! He had a few great games last week and he’s still a complete defensive liability, but a trip to the launch-pad known as Rangers Ballpark may have cured his woes. The Marlins may not have their lives together, but I am a believer that Hanley will right the ship and this team will play better baseball from here on out.
• Somebody get Aramis Ramirez a juice box. He hit six homers last week! SIX! That’s unbelievable. If you read my NL All-Star predictions, you’ll know that I thought third base in the NL was a vast wasteland. As much as people love to rip on Aramis, he is on pace for around 20/80 with around a .300 average to end the season. It’s amazing, but that may be the best stat line a third baseman in the NL posts this year, and it’s not even close. I’m buying this hot streak.
• If somebody’s going to get A-Ram a juice box, somebody get Dee Gordon a Triple Thick Milkshake. I admire the fight in this kid, but I just don’t know if he is big enough to be successful in the big leagues. I want him to succeed, I really do, but I question if he is capable of generating the bat speed necessary to get past first base even though his speed is uber-vuluptuous.
• After homering off both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, I’m fully ready to say Jose Bautista is back. I said a few weeks ago to sell on him. A large part of me would still sell unless you’re playing him at third base. This is not to say he can’t hit 20 homers in the second half, but I feel like he’s becoming one of those guys whose name recognition is growing among fantasy owners. I think there’s a correlation to the fact that he received the most all-star votes of all-time. People may just overpay a bunch for him. If you can fill holes in your team by getting rid of Bautista, I would do it.
• I’m going to say this now and I know it’s going to sound crazy. If there’s any feedback on this comment, I will write a separate article on it next week or a special article later this week. If the Pittsburgh Pirates make the playoffs (HUGE IF), then I think there is a case to be made for Joel Hanrahan to be the NL MVP. The Pirates run differential this season is +2. If they don’t have Hanrahan, the best closer in the game this season, then there is absolutely ZERO reason for optimism on this team going forward. I never thought I’d be one to advocate for a closer to be an MVP, but a 1.37 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 25-for-25 in save chances is hard to refute on a team with a AAA offense.

Last week, the Mike Stanton Man-Crush Meter sat at a 5. This week, I’m sad to say, it’s dropped to a 3. I mean, what the hell Mike. I shamelessly and embarrassingly dedicate a whole section of my new articles to you and you do this to me? No home runs since June 11?!?! Really?!?!? What the hell, bro?! You’re not doing anything well right now and it’s so frustrating. I don’t even know how to react. Trying to throw in a few steals at the end of the month isn’t going to make me feel better. If you don’t hit a dinker in the next week, we’re going to have some problems. But if you do make Prince Fielder’s NL Home Run Derby team, you’ll have great potential to captivate me again.

Joke of the week: What did the snail say when he was riding the turtle? WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!! (Thanks Matt Lauer)

David Kaplan
@TheKnurve
DHKaplan17@yahoo.com

The Knurve's National League All-Star Ballot

Here are my picks for the National League All-Stars. Be sure to check out my American League All-Star picks, too.

Catcher
It will be: Brian McCann
When I reflect on McCann, I love thinking about how he was the afterthought to Jeff Francoeur when they were called up in 2005. To think Franceour would flame out and McCann would turn into, in my opinion, the best catcher in baseball was not expected. That opinion is an article for another time, but with an average over .300 and 14 dingers, he's the anchor for the Braves underperforming offense. This spot is his again, and nobody's going to take it from him.

It could be: Miguel Montero
Filling this spot is like what I imagine parents feel when they're going to have twins: you're really excited about having one, but you realize you have to pay for two of these. Terrible jokes aside, Montero has been pretty solid on a pretty solid Diamondbacks offense this season. Catching has always been a weaker position, but there's a large contingent of average catchers after McCann, and I think Montero is the best of the average. Jon Lucroy, Ramon Hernandez, and Yadier Molina deserve mentions. The other notable in this group gets his own sentence: Chris Ianetta. If this guy could hit even .250 then he'd be almost as valuable as McCann, but Mr. Mendoza's line is hard to stomach.

First Base
It will be: Joey Votto
...and this disappoints me. I think I can make a pretty good case that Votto is not an All-Star, but I am pretty confident he'll get the votes to be a starter. Everybody wants to tout the season he's had, but at the end of the day he's got very little to show for it. His value is in his batting eye and he's fantastic at drawing walks and scoring runs, but he's only on pace for a 20/100 season, and the guy that SHOULD be starting at first base is almost at 20/100 in the first half.

It should be: Prince Fielder
This is a large man making a large case for a large contract. Goodness, this man deserves to start. Who would have thought Fielder could make a better case for a bigger contract than Albert Pujols, but I am starting to believe it was going to happen even before Pujols went down. Fielder is having a spectacular year, on pace for a 40/140 year, which is absurd. I am glad the Brew Crew is having a great year both because Fielder is keepin' it so real and because I think the Brewers will take the NL Pennant.

Second Base
It will be: Rickie Weeks
You really have to give this guy credit. When he's healthy, he's nasty, and he's been a great leadoff hitter at the top of this pungent lineup. His speed numbers are a little down, but he's been a solid contributor overall. And when you have Fielder and that Ryan Braun guy swinging like they're hitting with a tennis racket, it really helps bring Weeks home.

It should be: Danny Espinosa
Yeah, I said should. It's bold, but it's deserved. He's hit more homers, driven in more runs and stolen more bases than Weeks. I'm convinced if Espinosa had Braun and Fielder (hmmm) behind him, he could score more runs. This guy seems to have it all, and if the Nats pony up and spend some bills this winter, he could become a fantasy stud. The batting average might not get much better, but I can see him evolving into a better version of Weeks or Ian Kinsler.

Shortstop
It will be: Jose Reyes
Is there even a question? This guy has done absolutely everything he can to help the Mets. Get this guy on a winning team, please. It's been great to see what he can do when he's healthy, and it's been truly astounding. The Mets basically build Citi Field for Reyes' swing and he seems to have figured it out. He has 15 triples for goodness sakes. His career high in the category is 19. Watching Reyes play baseball is a lot of fun. Whichever team gets him will be making a worthy investment.

It could be: Troy Tulowitzki
Begrudgingly, I need to give Tulo some credit. After a smokin' hot April, he's had a pretty average May and June. But what does Tulo do best? He does work in the second half. If you'd like proof of this, I'd like to direct you towards his 15 HR/40 RBI performance in the second half of last year....IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. On one hand, he's been good, but not great. I think it's well understood he deserves the respect to start because he will turn it in the second half.

Third Base
It will be: Placido Polanco
I look at Polanco like I look at a good dog: he's nice, he does the same thing everyday, he doesn't go wild and he never pees on the carpet. In all seriousness, the Philly Phaithful will propel Polanco to the start in an otherwise weak position. He's reliable, he hits for average, he can score runs and he's great defensively. I'm pretty tired of talking about him, because the only reason he'll be an All-Star is because everybody else at the position is bad or hurt. Speaking of which, I really wonder what it's like to be THAT guy at an All-Star game. Will all the other All-Stars look at Polanco and think, "The only reason he's here is because David Wright is hurt."

It should be: Ryan Roberts
I think I've pretty well hammered home the point that this position is weak, but Roberts has actually been pretty impressive. He's been one of several pleasant surprises for the Diamondbacks. His 10 dingers and 12 steals are both pretty solid. As strange as this may be to say, I think if Wright was healthy Roberts would get more recognition because the media loooooooves to compare players, it gives better drama.

Outfield
It will be: Matt Kemp, Braun and Justin Upton
Just like Granderson and Ellsbury don't need much discussion, Kemp and Braun don't either. I can't tell you how much I want Kemp to go 40/40. I think the Dodgers organization really needs it. And Braun is just mashing. The 'Hebrew Hammer' has been workin' it hard this season. Upton is the only contentious pick here, but when reflecting upon where the game is this season, I think it's pretty clear he will get the nod. Upton has been an RBI machine of late and has great speed and power. To think how young he is makes me extremely excited to see what he is capable of doing.

It could be: Kemp, Braun and about 10 other people
In all seriousness, I think there about 10 names who would not surprise me at all to make it with Kemp and Braun. Make no mistake. These two are a cut above the rest, but not by too much. Would any of you cry foul if (in no particular order) Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jayson Werth, Carlos Beltran, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman made it? It's pretty clear-cut that there are going to be some bigtime snubs at this All-Star game, and the majority of them will be NL outfielders.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Roy Halladay
He's the best pitcher in baseball. Hearing other hitters talk about how good Halladay really is makes you appreciate him that much more. When they say the guy can throw 5 pitches for strikes almost every which way, it's hard to hate on him. I think even Mets fans respect Halladay, and that's saying something. He's doing the same thing every year. He's a Cy Young calibur pitcher. Makes you wonder what an entire career in the NL would have been like for him.

It could be: either of his two teammates
It's amazing to look at the amount of quality starting pitching in the NL, but Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are just a cut above everybody else. Lee had an obnoxious June and Hamels has been absolutely amazing. Pardon this tangent, but Hamels amazes the hell out of me. He has two pitches that he can throw for strikes, his fastball and his changeup, and he has some trouble locating his curveball. But Hamels is a good reminder that if you locate those two pitches, then you don't need that secondary pitch with alternative movement. This is another spot where 10 other guys could make a case, but these two are more dominant and just better.

Tweet me @TheKnurve with any comments, questions or general feedback on my articles.
-David Kaplan

The Knurve's American League All-Star Ballot

Shalom Everybody!

Ever since they made the All-Star game "mean something" by having it decide homefield in the World Series, I've had mixed feelings about the game. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the person the San Francisico Giants have to thank the most for winning last year's World Series (not getting there) is not Tim Lincecum, not Cody Ross, not Brian Wilson, not even Brian Wilson's beard, but......Brian McCann?!?!?

McCann's bases clearing double in the All-Star game propelled the NL to victory and gave the Giants homefield where Jonathan Sanchez, Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain were stupendous last year. I should also mention that I'm a huge believer in the Home Run Derby ruining a players swing for the second half, so I never want my fantasy hombres to be in the contest. I will say I'm looking forward to the bombs that are going to be dropped in Arizona.

So it is with this frustration in mind that I give you my American League All-Star starters, but I'll have two names under each position. The first name is who it WILL be and the second name is who it SHOULD/COULD be, just like this game SHOULD/COULD be an exhibition. If I say it "should be", then you know I feel strongly about the 2nd name, but if I say "could be" then you know a case could be made.

Catcher
It will be: Victor Martinez
He qualifies there, so it will be him. This one's all in the name for Victor. He is not the best catcher on his team (hint, hint...) but he's hitting solidly over .320 and is producing runs at a pretty solid clip. His production is a big reason the Detroit Tigers are in good shape to take a very winnable division.

It should be: Alex Avila
Now Avila is the best catcher on the Tigers and he's having a breakout year. I passed on the chance to pick him up in one of my leagues in favor of Wilson Ramos, and that's been my biggest regret so far this fantasy season. He's showing great flashses of power, has 10-steal potential, and is an even bigger reason than Martinez, and maybe even Miguel Cabrera, that the Tigers are where they are. Avila is the MVP of the Tigers this season because without his production, this team would be as average as every other team in the AL Central seems.

First Base
It will be: Adrian Gonzalez
This one is pretty straighforward. Gonzalez has been the most complete hitter in the AL and it's not even close. He's scoring runs, hitting for power, hitting for average, driving runs in at a ridiculous clip, and has carried the Red Sox, at times. People forget that he started somewhat slow, hitting a paltry .314 in April. What? David? That's not paltry!!! It is when you consider he hit .341 in May and .404 in June with 15 dingers in those two months. The man is a stud.

It should be: Paul Konerko
This is not a knock on Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Mark Teixeira at all, but Konerko has done everything but steal bases for the White Sox when the rest of their offense has been as useless as bacon to someone who keeps kosher. Like V-Mart, it's refreshing to see Konerko put these past two seasons together and bounce back to the stud he was when the White Sox won it all last decade. Think about the White Sox offensive potential in Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham. When you consider none of those guys have been hitting and it's been Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin keeping this underperforming team in the race. Many players can fold under that pressure, but Konerko has excelled.

Second Base
It will be: Robinson Cano
I don't have many qualms with this. I have really enjoyed watching Cano's career blossom in the way that it has. He hit .342 in his second full year in the bigs with just 15 homers. He has evolved his game to hit for power and not feel like he has to pull everything, which I think is rare for a young player who is entering his prime. I also like the fact that Cano was a homegrown Yankee. The fact that he came from their farm system is refreshing. He's hovered around .300 the whole season despite not being the most patient hitter, but he makes it work. This is a pretty clear choice.

It could be: Ian Kinsler
I only say this because Kinsler is Jewish. Just kidding. Seriously though, when Kinsler is healthy, he gives such an unbelievable boost to the Texas Rangers. His batting average is down a little bit this year, but with double digit homers and steals, already. His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career mark, so I can see him having a big second half if he's healthy. His run production is also down, but there's only so much he can do since he's been leading off five out of every six games.

Shortstop
It will be: Asdrubal Cabrera
He's been the rock of the overperforming Indians offense. He's been hitting for power, stealing bases and simply doing it all for the Cleveland Indians. I don't think there's much of an argument here. Jeter's days as an All-Star are done. Who better to fill his shoes than a player as similar to him as Cabrera. Cabrera has a touch more power than Jeter did but he's also a stud defensively, which us fantasy players have to take into account, as boring as that may be.

It could be: Jhonny Peralta
There are a lot of options here, including J. J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus, but I think Peralta has been a critical performer for the Tigers. He's on pace for around 25 HR/95 RBI and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. If you told the Tigers at the beginning of the season these would be Peralta's halfway stats, then they'd have given you a hot dog. Chubby Jhonny Peralta could be eating tons of hot dogs in Arizona.

Third Base
It will be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any argument here? He is head and shoulders better than any other third baseman in the AL. This is the weakest position, by far, in fantasy and the majors this year, so what's to argue with here? I chronicled in one of my "Knurve to Say" articles that Bautista was having a brutal June, but his April and May will put him in the All-Star game. He's on pace for 10 steals, he takes walks, scores runs, he does it all. I boldly predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to get the Wildcard, and I truly believe this team has it all. Bautista is the anchor.

It should be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any arguing here? Sure Alex Rodriguez has a case, but I can't see any possible scenario where America would feel A-Rod gets the nod over Bautista, who is finally getting the recognition for what he's been doing.

Outfield
It will be: Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki
I'll start with the two locks: Granderson and Ellsbury. Is there even any question? These two guys are studs who you got for pretty cheap on draft day compared to the levels they have performed. AL Outfield is so weak this season that these two are shoo-ins. The pragmatist in me wants to be realistic and say Ichiro's going to get the votes to become an All-Star because he always does. He is starting to pick it back up, so it's not a completely lame assertion. B. J. Upton has hit 11 more dingers with the same number of steals and significantly worse batting average, so it might be six of one half a dozen of the other.

It should be: Granderson, Ellsbury and Upton
As for Upton, people want to rip on his batting average, and that's pretty easy because it's THAT terrible, but if you look at his counting stats, he's on pace for another 25 HR/45 SB season, which makes the batting average much easier to swallow. Considering the other possible names for this list are Alex Gordon and Brennan Boesch, I think we can be confident in this tandem.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Justin Verlander
I think Verlander is well-liked enough across the country that he has to be the favorite here. As much as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will garner a ton of votes, I'd hope baseball fans can appreciate Verlander's dominance this season. With this being another "Year of the Pitcher", it's not easy to pick this spot, but Verlander leads the majors in K's, WHIP, and Wins. His ERA is a full run higher than Weaver's, but the defense behind Verlander is 24th in the majors in Fielding Percentage whereas the Angels are 4th in the AL (8th in the majors).

It could be: Jered Weaver
There's certainly a great case to be made for Weaver. His April was Zack Greinke-esque (circa 2009) and he has established himself as a dominant starter in the AL. Along with Verlander, he's proven himself durable and reliable. Aside from one slight hiccup against the Indians, he's been as good as they come. When you're 6'7", throwing downhill is much better, especially when you're able to locate your off-speed stuff as well as he has.

So there it is... thoughts? Tweet me @TheKnurve. I'd love some feedback!
-David Kaplan

The Knurve To Say: June 27th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...Jhoulys Chacin will be a top 3 starting pitcher by the end of 2012.
     I know this is relatively bold, but I’m a huge believer in this guy. He’s seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL, but I still get the feeling he’s underappreciated and it’s got me wondering.
     His K/9 is slightly down from last year but so is his BB/9. I have chronicled on my blog how much of a premium elite starting pitching he has become. The increasing depth of starting pitching is going to force us to look for that extra something at a good value. I think even next year, Chacin will be available for a good price because of his relative obscurity.
     But why do I believe he’s going to turn into an elite starting pitcher? For starters, the dude’s only 23 and he’s already doing solid work. His minor league numbers indicate he has the ability for fabulous control. That being said, I think this is his adjustment year. The slight dip in K/9 doesn’t worry me at all because it has been accompanied by a lower BB/9 and an above average HR/FB rate. The higher Home Run rate is to be expected in Coors, but there’s typically a correlation between walk rates and HR/FB rates. Chacin’s track record implies those rates will regress to a mean, and I expect his K rates to spike.
     Chacin is well aware that he is most successful when he keeps the ball down. His high ground ball rates and career BABIP of .255 implies that he has the ability to show phenomenal control. If you are scared of Chacin’s high strand rate, don’t be. His ability to keep the ball down means fewer RBI’s and Home Runs alongside more double-plays.
     My recommendation: If you’re in a keeper league, try to go get him. If you’re at the bottom of your league, offer up an older starter or sell high on somebody. If you can get Chacin for Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Alexi Ogando, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez are just a few of the guys having good years that I’d trade for Chacin in a heartbeat.

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I was a loser and stayed home to watch the White Sox-Nats game on Friday night. The ejection of temporary manager John McLaren was awesome, but I want to talk about Henry Rodriguez for a second. Chances are you've never heard of Rodriguez, but I’m going to say with utter confidence that he has the nastiest stuff in the Majors. I was absolutely shocked at what this guy was doing. He’s hitting 100 with his fastball and has a slider/sinker that is the most absurd thing I have ever seen in my entire life. There are no great videos showing his whole arsenal. But check out the location and speed of these fastballs when he was on the Athletics: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11390201 And check out the pure filth of this wild pitch earlier this year: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14609955. It’s no wonder he has an absurdly low ERA and high WHIP.
• Speaking of McLaren's ejection, I was pissed after they overruled that call, for one reason, and one reason only. Armando Galarraga. Where was the home plate umpire when Jim Joyce clearly blew the call that cost him a perfect game? There’s no excuse for overruling that call Friday night. Sure, it was a bang-bang play, but to the wimpy rookie umpire, don’t poop your pants whenever someone questions you. Joe Torre needs to talk to his umpires about what can get overruled and what can’t. That was absolutely terrible.
• I’m convinced the Diamondbacks are going to win the NL West going away. This team was one year away after their atrocious season last year, and now that they improved the bullpen and their young offense is a year older. Their starting pitching has been a performing a little over their heads (See: Joshua Collmenter and Ian Kennedy) but they have the highest offensive potential in that division and it’s not even close. Speaking of them, in case you haven’t seen Wily Mo Pena’s shtoinker Friday night… you’re welcome: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16233223
• I used to think the Kardashian’s were the dumbest, most annoying people ever. Then Jim Riggleman decided to stop managing the Nationals.
• The report that came out where Logan Morrison told new manager Jack McKeon that he was going to go home and play with his Twitter and McKeon asked what kind of dog it was, made me laugh for about 20 minutes.
• Given the power of the AL East, I am ready to declare Josh Beckett and James Shields two of the best pitchers in baseball. But if I own them I’m selling high. The fact of the matter is these guys are not, nor have they ever been, THIS good. If you own one of these guys, I’m milking them for all their worth. Mark my words on this one, starting pitching is so deep, shore up a hole in your roster by getting rid of these guys. I think these guys will be good for the rest of the season, but I think both of their value has peaked right now. Three straight complete games!?! Are you kidding me?
• I’m going to say this now, and I will probably elaborate on this in my article next week, but Joe Mauer’s contract may go down as one of the biggest busts in baseball history.

The Mike Stanton Mancrush-Meter was a 6 last week. I’m sad to say it’s down to a 5 this week. He sat the first few games of last week with an eye infection and then came back and had two straight 3 hit games on Wednesday and Thursday before he had a golden sombrero Friday night, striking out all four times he came to the plate. With no mammoth, testosterone-inducing bombs to the crowded Sun Life Stadium outfield bleachers this week, I sure hope he hits one this week.

Joke of the week: Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average in June is 10 points higher than Shaq’s free throw percentage in the entire 2006-2007 season with the Heat. I can’t tell which is funnier; how good Gonzalez is or how bad Shaq was.

Have a great week, fellow Americans.
@TheKnurve

KNURVE'S NOTE: I swear on my future children's ugliness that I didn't read Matthew Berry's column from last week before I touted Chacin and selling high on Beckett and Shields.

The Knurve To Say: June 20th, 2011

Hello to all the COSFBA readers, and thank you for allowing me into your wonderful homes.  I'd first like to start off by wishing all the papas out there a very Happy Father's Day.  I hope you were fed too much, annoyed by your kids a little less, and finally got those Callaway golf balls you've wanted for a while but were too lazy to get yourself.

But anways, the name of this article is, "The Knurve To Say".  I'll make some awesomely bold, yet stunningly correct assertions and then do my best to back it up.  So here we go!

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
... Carl Crawford this year is Curtis Granderson from last year!
I tweeted this the other day @TheKnurve (first shameless plug), but I wanted to talk a little bit more about a revelation I had earlier this week and that is "a comparison between Crawford this year and Granderson last year".  Many fantasy owners, and certainly the Red Sox, have been very disappointed with Crawford's production to this point, and reasonably so.  He's only on pace for 14 dingers, 19 steals and a .243 AVG, which is a much slower pace than we were anticipating out of the number-one outfielder off the board in many league's drafts.  Both men also have to battle the stigma that they cannot hit lefties. Granderson seems to have figured it out (.277 with 9 HR in 83 at-bats) while Crawford is struggling mightily, hitting just .151 in 86 at-bats against southpaws this season.

Some of you may or may not remember Granderson got off to a similarly atrocious start last year, posting a two-HR April (and both dingers came on the opening weekend in Fenway) and just a .221 AVG before missing almost all of May with a groin injury.  Granderson came back and struggled some more before having what Yankee fans may start calling "The Meeting" with hitting coach Kevin Long, who shortened up his swing and made it fit to Yankee Stadium. Granderson hit a total of 14 stinkers in August and September and the rest, as they say, is history.  The adjustments Granderson made with Long were to shorten up his swing and eliminate some of the extraneous movement that slowed him down so much.

In looking at Crawford's swing, I see some similar problems with extraneous movement.  Both men left pitchers parks, entered hitters parks and signed big old contracts, therefore lofting expectations about what they are capable of.  But we have to remember adjustment periods are necessary to help cater swings to ballparks to fit their skill-set.  I'm not saying Crawford and Granderson are identical players (although they are similar), I'm simply saying if Crawford can take a page out of Adrian Gonzalez's book and figure out how to fight lefties off the other way with the short porch in left-field, then he'll be the fantasy player we all hoped he would be.  So to you, Crawford owners, expect him to start figuring lefties out in Fenway. He's just too talented not to.

The impetus for this whole idea was taking a look at Crawford's speed numbers and realizing how much hitting at the bottom of the order is hurting his fantasy value.  I owned Granderson last season and was furious he was hitting at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. If he could just get to that 2-hole then it would turn him into the offensive force we all expected. Just look what he's done in that spot this year: .288 AVG, 17 shtoinkers, 44 RBI and 9 SB.  #Winning.

As strange as this may seem, I think Crawford's injury will help him in the long run.  I'm pretty convinced Granderson's injury forced him to tighten things up at the dish so maybe the same will happen to Crawford.  I do want to mention with the season Jacoby Ellsbury is having, I don't think Crawford is ever going to hit those speed numbers we hoped he would.  I highly doubt he ever tops 50 steals in a Red Sox uniform. I look for him to be in the 35-40 range when he finally figures his life out.

So now that I've gotten that little tangent out of the way, here are some fantasy thoughts I had from this past week:

• Things are getting ugly for the Marlins. Watching this team play baseball has been as painful as listening to a Lil' B song.  For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, watch this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m5CIcbytfM). They actually have the bullpen and I am a believer in their offense, but with Hanley Ramirez as disappointing as he's been and Chris Coghlan getting sent down, it's hard to keep the faith. I truly believe this team has all the pieces. Sure, they may have been playing above their heads the first two months of the season, but I think we all know they're not THIS bad.  I'm definitely buying low on Hanley, for the right price. It's times like these in keeper leagues where you can pounce on a sell-high/buy-low situation while catch the opposing owner off guard. This might just be one of those years for Hanley.
• Adrian Gonzalez is a legitimate Triple Crown candidate. I was worried about his shoulder going into the year, but there are nights like last Tuesday where the Red Sox had five hits against the Jays and Gonzalez had 3 of them. Those are the performances that make you think this guy is onto something, especially considering he was 13-for-30 this week with three clobbershows and seven RBI.
• Going off of A-Gon, I have to say I'm starting to lose a little faith in Jose Bautista. Something has looked off about him in the past three weeks. Someone in one of my leagues just traded him for Matt Kemp straight up, and I think it was a great deal. He's slugging just .333 this month and pitchers are just not throwing to him. And guess who's been the beneficiary?  The RED-HOT Adam Lind.  Don't think these two occurrences aren't directly tied. Lind has been hitting lefties since he's been back and with Bautista's amazing ability to take walks, pitchers are being forced to throw to Lind, and he's been raking. That's a trend I can see continuing. I'm not saying Bautista's going to fall off the face of the earth, but this might be a good sell-high opportunity while many analysts are saying he's the new number-one fantasy player.
• I think Billy Butler will be a Ray by the end of the season. Sell high on him now because that's a crappy hitter’s park and he can't hit home runs.
• Since I'm talking a lot about selling, I want to share some buying opportunities. I know I own both of them on one team, but I think now is a buying opportunity for both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn. I think both of them are onto something. And while neither may turn it on in the AVG department, I can definitely see both of them taking different approaches at the plate that will help them in the long run.
• A walk-off balk? Are you kidding me, Mets?
• Don't look now but I think Jhonny Peralta might be legit.  He has been the primary beneficiary of hitting next to those guys Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera and I can see him putting up these numbers over the course of the year. He has mid-20's home run power with the ability to hit for AVG. With middle infield power as weak as it has been, he is someone I might make a run at.
• I firmly believe that last weekend’s Brewers-Red Sox series will be a World Series Preview.

The Mike Stanton Man-Crush meter currently sits at a six. With no home runs this week, Stanton has been letting me down. I take solace in the fact that nobody on the Marlins is hitting, so maybe his young, stellar, beautiful, strong, still-developing brain just needs to allow cooler heads to prevail in that clubhouse.  He'll get it back and will be jacking monster shots in no time.

Joke of the week: What time was it in Boston during the Stanley Cup? 15 past Luongo. The joke's even funnier because nobody cares about hockey.

I'll be doing this segment each and every Monday, so get used to it and let me know what you think.

David Kaplan aka The Knurve