Saturday, April 17, 2010

Ups and Downs: 04/17/2010

Ups and Downs will be a semi-regular column looking at players with the greatest percentage of adds and drops, according to ESPN's fantasy leagues (simply because that data is easily accessible to me), and the fantasy impact (positive and negative) of those decisions.

HITTER ADDS (data as of 04/17/2010)
  • OF Jeff Francoeur, NYM (+49.7%) - It's not hard to see why Francoeur is at the top of the ADDS list. He's currently the #5 ranked hitter on ESPN with a .457 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB(!) and a 1.302 OPS. What is surprising is that he's still only 63.7% owned overall.
  • OF Chris B. Young, ARI (+47.7%) - Young looks to be living up to the potential people were drafting for in 2008 and 2009. A hot start (.325 BA, .989 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB) has boosted his ownership up to 89.3%. This ship has probably sailed if your league has any value at all.
  • SS Alex Gonzalez, TOR (+46.5%) - A .340 BA and 34 TB (2nd in MLB) easily explain why Gonzalez is such a huge ADD. Question is, "How long will this last?". As long as you don't dump an under-performing star to add him, ride this wave all the way to the shore. Was only 1.4% owned before this week.
  • OF Jose Guillen, KC (+44.4%) - His 5 HR, .350 BA and 1.195 OPS explain all the love being thrown his way. More incredible is the news of the off-season battle to save his life. Only 44.8% owned, you may have a chance to grab him before he hits any more bombs.
  • OF Scott Podsednik, KC (+43%) - Virtually undrafted unless for his SB potential, Pods is has not disappointed. His 6 SB are tied for the ML lead but the .436 BA is what can't be overlooked. Still only 50.6% owned. Get him for the steals and enjoy the peripherals while they're hot.
  • OF Magglio Ordonez, DET (+32.9%) - His ADP was 191.1 and for that, all he's done is give you a .341 BA with 3 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI and a 1.035 OPS. He's healthy and hitting but probably not available in any league worth being in (93.6% owned).
PITCHER ADDS (data as of 04/17/2010)
  • SP Ricky Romero, TOR (+46.9%) - He's started off with 2 QS, 1 W in 15 IP with a robust 16:4 K:BB ratio with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. Still only 50.3% owned, now might be the time to pick him up and see if this is for real or not.
  • RP Kevin Gregg, TOR (+42.6%) - Started the season in the closer mix, he's now been anointed the Closer after Jason Frasor imploded. A must-own in all formats. Shocking he's still only 51.1% owned.
  • RP Neftali Feliz, TEX (+37.4%) - Another newly-crowned Closer, Feliz was a must-own even before this with his 13.50 K/9. Can you believe this guy is still only 65.1% owned? If you need saves, holds, K's or stellar ratios, get him! Get him now!
  • SP Dallas Braden, OAK (+33%) - Another virtually undrafted player that is off to a hot start, his 3 QS, 2 W, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 16:3 K:BB make him ownable in all formats.
  • SP Carl Pavano, MIN (+25.5%) - Pavano has recorded 2 QS against two quality opponents (@LAA, vsBOS) with a 10:1 K:BB ratio. His next start is versus KC, so he should continue to succeed.
HITTER DROPS (data as of 04/17/2010)
  • OF Kyle Blanks, SD (-20.1%) - Blanks still has 25+ HR potential as a 4th or 5th outfielder in deep leagues but his low average (.229) and high strikeouts (13 K in 10 G) may be too much to stomach for most owners.
  • OF Chris Coghlan, FLA (-18.6%) - Coghlan started off poorly (.132 BA and .307 OPS) and has  been battling a ribs injury. These factors may have caused the mass bails. If you have the roster flexibility, he may be a good stash (especially if he's forced to the DL) until he rights the wrongs.
  • C Mike Napoli, LAA (-17.6%) - Jeff Mathis somehow stole all of Napoli's ABs and it doesn't look like it will get any better. Definitely a dump in single-catcher formats. Rumors of a trade may make him ownable in two-catcher formats.
  • C Miguel Montero, ARI (-17.2%) - I truly don't understand this one unless your league does not include DL slots. If some frustrated owner in your league can't wait four-to-six weeks for a top 5 catcher to return from injury, get him and stash him on your DL until he's back. Some people's kids...
  • OF Julio Borbon, TEX (-14.2%) - Another head-scratcher here. Yes, Borbon has started off slowly (.097 BA, 1 SB), but his ADP of 144.6 means people are already giving up on a 12th round pick. Again, grab him and be patient. Texas has committed to Borbon and so should you.
PITCHER DROPS (data as of 04/17/2010)
  • RP Mike Gonzalez, BAL (-23.8%) - The Orioles were slow to put him on the DL, which probably caused frustrated owners (of which I was one) to dump him for RP Jim Johnson.
  • RP Frank Francisco, TEX (-20.6%) - Another closer that lost his job and was worth the drop unless your league utilizes Holds.
  • RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA (-18.8%) - Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon were expected to battle it out for the closer role but what good is a closer if you aren't winning games. Not sure he was worth the drop already, so pick him up if you are desperate for potential saves.
  • RP Jason Frasor, TOR (-16.2%) - Not often that a closer with three saves loses his role within the first ten games of the season, but the numbers don't lie: 2 BSV, 5.06 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, .407 OBA
  • SP Stephen Strasburg, WAS (-13.6%) - Not surprising that he's being dropped. The real fun is when he becomes the guy to add. Keep an eye on all news related to Strasburg's call up and jump all over the chance to own him.
What players are you adding or dumping this early in the season and why?

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