Wednesday, May 4, 2011

A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:
  • Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
  • Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
  • John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
  • Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.
There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:
  • Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him
Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:
  • Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
  • Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
  • Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
  • John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
  • Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.
Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.

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