Thursday, June 16, 2011

Line of the Day: June 15th, 2011

Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox allowed one hit, walked none and struck out six Tampa Bay Rays in a 3-0 win. It was the first one-hitter of his career. It was also the tenth complete game and fifth shutout of his career.

Line: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K; W, QS, CG, SHO

My fantasy perspective: Beckett currently leads the majors with a 1.86 ERA. How many of us saw that one coming? The answer is no one did. His ADP of 177.5 in ESPN leagues and 151.7 in Yahoo! leagues prove not even the expert ranking had him anywhere near the Top 100. His Spring Training numbers (1-4, 5.33 ERA, 25.1 IP, 28 H, 15 ER) sure didn't scream he'd be this successful in 2011.

A deeper look into his numbers show he may be the beneficiary of good luck. For those not familiar with xFIP, it's been described as "pure ERA" and "one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance". Beckett's current ERA is 1.86 while his xFIP stands at 3.69 (a -1.83 difference). Hitters only have a .2.17 BABIP against him with an 84.3 LOB%.

Nothing says Beckett can't keep having a great season but the numbers show there's room for change and most of it being in the negative direction. Enjoy the numbers you've gotten out of him so far while exploring a deal with the Red Sox fanatic owner in your league.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

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