Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Finding Keepers: New York Yankees

Rare is the team that can make a case for a keeper at nearly every position, but so is the case with the New York Yankees.

2B Robinson Cano finished the season as the top-ranked fantasy second baseman and the 11th-ranked player overall . His .319/103/29/109/3 was enough to garner him a third place finish in the AL MVP voting. Cano will be drafted in the first round of most drafts and continues to show his value as a keeper. I'm still not sure we've seen him reach his full potential and that should excite any fantasy owner lucky enough to have him on their roster for years to come.

You'd think 40 wins and nearly 400 strikeouts over the last two seasons would have been enough for SP CC Sabathia to win a couple of Cy Young awards but such is not the case. His 2010 season left him as the 7th-ranked starting pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater. Sabathia owners should just sit back and enjoy the quality seasons he's putting together, lock him up as a keeper and work to build a quality pitching staff around him.

Any guesses which other Yankee ranked within the top 50 fantasy-valued players? Hint: His yearly salary was a whopping $452,500. OF Brett Gardner finished the season with a .277/97/5/47/47 line, ranking him 47th overall and he deserves the same consideration as a keeper that a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn would be given. Would you rather a 20/20 outfielder or a 5/50 one?

Some people would argue that 3B Alex Rodriguez is no longer the player he used to be. Maybe that's true but he's STILL a player that hit 30 HR and had 125 RBI last season and that was good enough for 6th best at his position and is a no-brainer keeper. He probably won't be drafted in the first round of many drafts this season and could fall past the second round. All I know is that if he falls and I have the next pick, I'm buying that his line gets better in 2011.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Finding Keepers: Los Angeles Dodgers

Going into the 2011 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have some very nice fantasy players but how many of them deserve to be keepers heading into draft day?

If you put together your "All Disappointment" Team of 2010, most would have OF Matt Kemp earning a spot in the starting lineup. Google searching seems to prove he earned it. But is it deservingly so? Kemp, a full-time player since 2008, did reach career highs in extra-base hits (59), home runs (28) and walks (53) but also in strikeouts (170) and caught stealings (15). His slash line of .249/.310/.450 was below his career slash line of .285/.336/.472 but not significantly other than in batting average. In my opinion, the perception of his season as being "down" comes from Kemp being drafted as a first-rounder (8.8 ADP) but only providing owners with an 83rd-ranked performance. With Joe Torre and Rihanna out of the way, Kemp's focus should be on returning to an elite fantasy baseball outfielder and definitely worthy of a keeper selection in all formats.

OF Andre Ethier was hitting .392 with 11 HR and 38 RBI before fracturing his pinkie in batting practice on May 15th. His season never felt the same after that. Ethier still managed to finish 2010 hitting .292 with 23 HR and 82 RBI and deserves to to be keeper.

We all learned from watching Felix Hernandez earn a Cy Young award this season that wins aren't the truest measure of a pitcher's value. SP Clayton Kershaw finished the season 13-10 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 212 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). Those are fantasy ace numbers. Oh, by the way, he's just 22 years old. 22! With so much still to learn about pitching at the major league level, Kershaw deserves to be a keeper now and for many years to come.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Finding Keepers: Minnesota Twins

Question: Who was the top-rated fantasy player on the 2010 Minnesota Twins? Mauer? Morneau? Liriano? Capps? Cuddyer? Span? Pavano? Thome? Answer: None of the above.

OF Delmon Young was the Twins highest-ranked player on ESPN's Plater Rater, coming in at 56th overall, with a .298/77/21/112/5 line and even garnered some MVP love with a 10th place finish in the balloting and receiving as high as a fourth place vote. At just 24 years old, Young's potential is enticing enough to keep him on your team's roster for the 2011 season and hope for even better numbers to come.

C Joe Mauer continues to be the most productive catcher in baseball even though his home run total dropped significantly in 2010. Mauer has only reached double-digits in two season: 13 in 2006 and 28 in 2009. His career average for home runs per 162 games played is 16, which is fantastic for a catcher with a career batting average of .327. Lock him up as a keeper and enjoy being the envy of the owners that are struggling to draft between Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.

Is this the season that SP Francisco Liriano breaks out to become the fantasy baseball stud we all envisioned after his incredible 2006 season? Here are some encouraging stats that make me think so. In 2010, Liriano made a career high 31 starts covering 191.2 innings pitched and produced 14 wins. He stuck out 201, allowed 184 hits and only surrendered 9 homers. His 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were both below his career averages for those stats. He's 2+ seasons removed from Tommy John surgery, still just 27 years old and plays for a team that wins ballgames. I see no reason why Liriano can't 16 or more games in 2011 and validate using a keeper selection on him.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Finding Keepers: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are a franchise that has made the decision to go young and so that is going to limit the number of fantasy keepers on their roster that are proven stars but that doesn't mean that don't have keeper-worthy players.

OF Hunter Pence is this team's no-brainer when it comes to finding the keepers. At 27 years old, Pence is showing consistency and growth potential. He's hit 25 home runs in each of his last three seasons, batted .282 in his last two season and reached a career high in stolen bases with 18 in 2010. I think you know what you're getting with Pence and that is a very attractive quality in a keeper candidate.

OF Michael Bourn has averaged (per 162 games played) a line of 78/3/31/.263/50 compared to Juan Pierre's line of 92/1/44/.298/54. I was on the fence whether or not to call Pierre a keeper. I feel even less strongly about whether Bourn is a keeper. If you like the thought of a guaranteed 50 stolen bases on your roster then both of these players are probably keepers in your mind. Again, single-category dominance is definitely a factor when evaluating a keeper selection but Bourn will hurt you in four of the five standard scoring categories. It's a "no" for me.

Based on SP Wandy Rodriguez's first-half statistics (18 GS, 6-11, 10 QS, 1 ND, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.93 K/BB), Wandy was barely worth rostering. Based on his second-half statistics (14 GS, 5-1, 13 QS, 8 ND, 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.61 K/BB), he threw up some elite numbers. The question remains: Which Wandy shows up in 2011?

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Finding Keepers: Los Angeles Angels

I know this article is supposed to be about identifying fantasy baseball keeper targets but I can't help but mention how badly this offseason has played out for the Los Angeles Angels. I've been delaying writing about the Angels because I kept expecting to have to discuss the signings of such top free agents as Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre and/or Rafael Soriano as possible keepers. They seemed to have the financial resources to sign any combination of these players, if not all three, and as it stands today they've signed none. WOW!

Okay, now let's discuss their potential keepers going into 2011. SP Jered Weaver had a great season in every aspect of his game but his 13-12 record doesn't necessarily reflect it. He lead the league with 233 strikeouts in 224.1 innings pitched while compiling the 5th best ERA at 3.01 and the 3rd best WHIP at 1.07. Weaver even garnered some Cy Young Award love by finishing 5th in the voting. His name may not roll off the tongue when discussing the elite pitchers in baseball but it's worth noting that he finished as the 6th best starting pitcher according to the ESPN Player Rater ahead of such big name pitchers as Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, David Price and Jon Lester.

SP Dan Haren is another Angels pitcher that should be kept in all fantasy baseball league formats. His overall numbers in 2010 were nothing spectacular (12-12, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 216 K in 235 IP) but still very good. In his 14 starts with the Angels, Haren went 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Those are the numbers that should be encouraging to owners going into 2011.