Ultimate Lineup: 04/19/2010

Ultimate Lineup will be a weekly column looking at the players currently ranked highest at their respective positions over the last week of action. I'll be using ESPN's Player Rater and Yahoo!'s current rankings to determine my starters and reserves based on position eligibility.

CATCHER

• Starter - Ivan Rodriguez, WAS (28% E; 37% Y!) - 10/21 (.476 BA), 7 R, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB
• Reserve - Bengie Molina, SF (91% E; 86% Y!) - 9/17 (.529 BA), 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Nick Hundley, SD (0.3% E; 2% Y!) - 5/16 (.313 BA), 4 R, 1 R, 6 RBI, 0 SB

FIRST BASE

• Starter - Ty Wigginton, BAL (3% E; 8% Y!) - 8/23 (.348 BA), 6 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Carlos Pena, TB (100% E; 93% Y!) - 7/24 (.292 BA), 6 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB
• Reserve - Michael Cuddyer, MIN (100% E; 88% Y!) - 9/24 (.375 BA), 4 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

SECOND BASE

• Starter - Chase Utley, PHI (100% E; 99% Y!) - 7/21 (.333 BA), 8 R, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Ty Wigginton, BAL (3% E; 8% Y!) - 8/23 (.348 BA), 6 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Dan Uggla, FLA (100% E; 95% Y!) - 13/28 (.464 BA), 7 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB

THIRD BASE

• Starter - Ty Wigginton, BAL (3% E; 8% Y!) - 8/23 (.348 BA), 6 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Casey McGehee, MIL (90% E; 71% Y!) - 10/22 (.455 BA), 5 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Alberto Callaspo, KC (4% E; 25% Y!) - 9/27 (.333 BA), 4 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB

SHORTSTOP

• Starter - Derek Jeter, NYY (100% E; 98% Y!) - 11/22 (.500 BA), 5 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Yuniesky Betancourt, KC (2% E; 4% Y!) - 11/24 (.458 BA), 6 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB
• Reserve - Ryan Theriot, CHC (88% E; 57% Y!) - 8/28 (.286 BA), 4 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB

OUTFIELD

• Starter - Shin-Soo Choo, CLE (100% E; 96% Y!) - 11/19 (.579 BA), 5 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB
• Starter - Matt Kemp, LAD (100% E; 99% Y!) - 8/24 (.333 BA), 8 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
• Starter - Jose Guillen, KC (60% E; 59% Y!) - 12/26 (.462 BA), 7 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB
• Reserve - Ryan Braun, MIL (100% E; 99% Y!) - 11/26 (.423 BA), 5 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
• Reserve - Andre Either, LAD (100% E; 95% Y!) - 11/26 (.423 BA), 4 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

STARTING PITCHER

• Starter - Adam Wainwright, STL (100% E; 98% Y!) - 17 IP, 1 CG, 2 QS, 2-0, 1.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 5.33 K/BB, 8.47 K/9
• Starter - Ricky Romero, TOR (65% E; 72% Y!) - 16 IP, 2 QS, 1-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 4.50 K/BB, 10.13 K/9
• Starter - Matt Garza, TB (100% E; 94% Y!) - 16 IP, 2 QS, 2-0, 0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 5.63 K/9
• Reserve - Andy Pettitte, NYY (77% E; 59% Y!) - 14 IP, 2 QS, 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.67 K/BB, 6.43 K/9
• Reserve - Mike Pelfrey, NYM (7% E; 24% Y!) - 8 IP, 1 QS, 1-0, 1 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB, 6.75 K/9
• Reserve - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (100% E; 98% Y!) - 9 IP, 1 CG, 1 QS, 0 H, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 1.17 K/BB, 7.00 K/9

RELIEF PITCHER

• Starter - Fernando Rodney, LAA (24% E; 48% Y!) - 3 IP, 0-0, 3 SV, 6.00 K/9
• Reserve - Jonathan Broxton, LAD (100% E; 98% Y!) - 4 IP, 1-0, 1 SV, 13.50 K/9
• Reserve - Rafael Soriano, TB (100% E; 92% Y!) - 4 IP, 0-0, 3 SV, 9.00 K/9
• Reserve - Mariano Rivera, NYY (100% E; 98% Y!) - 2 IP, 0-0, 3 SV, 13.50 K/9

Most of these players are owned in the majority of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, but there definitely are waiver wire opportunities out there (Rodriguez, Guillen, Wigginton, Romero, Pettitte) to help improve your team(s). Smart, successful owners are always looking at the stats for the "last 7", "last 15" and the "last month" to see who's hot (and not) and where they can improve their team(s) off waivers.

Good luck assembling next week's Ultimate Lineup.

Ups and Downs: 04/17/2010

Ups and Downs will be a semi-regular column looking at players with the greatest percentage of adds and drops, according to ESPN's fantasy leagues (simply because that data is easily accessible to me), and the fantasy impact (positive and negative) of those decisions.

HITTER ADDS (data as of 04/17/2010)

• OF Jeff Francoeur, NYM (+49.7%) - It's not hard to see why Francoeur is at the top of the ADDS list. He's currently the #5 ranked hitter on ESPN with a .457 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB(!) and a 1.302 OPS. What is surprising is that he's still only 63.7% owned overall.
• OF Chris B. Young, ARI (+47.7%) - Young looks to be living up to the potential people were drafting for in 2008 and 2009. A hot start (.325 BA, .989 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB) has boosted his ownership up to 89.3%. This ship has probably sailed if your league has any value at all.
• SS Alex Gonzalez, TOR (+46.5%) - A .340 BA and 34 TB (2nd in MLB) easily explain why Gonzalez is such a huge ADD. Question is, "How long will this last?". As long as you don't dump an under-performing star to add him, ride this wave all the way to the shore. Was only 1.4% owned before this week.
• OF Jose Guillen, KC (+44.4%) - His 5 HR, .350 BA and 1.195 OPS explain all the love being thrown his way. More incredible is the news of the off-season battle to save his life. Only 44.8% owned, you may have a chance to grab him before he hits any more bombs.
• OF Scott Podsednik, KC (+43%) - Virtually undrafted unless for his SB potential, Pods is has not disappointed. His 6 SB are tied for the ML lead but the .436 BA is what can't be overlooked. Still only 50.6% owned. Get him for the steals and enjoy the peripherals while they're hot.
• OF Magglio Ordonez, DET (+32.9%) - His ADP was 191.1 and for that, all he's done is give you a .341 BA with 3 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI and a 1.035 OPS. He's healthy and hitting but probably not available in any league worth being in (93.6% owned).

PITCHER ADDS (data as of 04/17/2010)

• SP Ricky Romero, TOR (+46.9%) - He's started off with 2 QS, 1 W in 15 IP with a robust 16:4 K:BB ratio with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. Still only 50.3% owned, now might be the time to pick him up and see if this is for real or not.
• RP Kevin Gregg, TOR (+42.6%) - Started the season in the closer mix, he's now been anointed the Closer after Jason Frasor imploded. A must-own in all formats. Shocking he's still only 51.1% owned.
• RP Neftali Feliz, TEX (+37.4%) - Another newly-crowned Closer, Feliz was a must-own even before this with his 13.50 K/9. Can you believe this guy is still only 65.1% owned? If you need saves, holds, K's or stellar ratios, get him! Get him now!
• SP Dallas Braden, OAK (+33%) - Another virtually undrafted player that is off to a hot start, his 3 QS, 2 W, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 16:3 K:BB make him ownable in all formats.
• SP Carl Pavano, MIN (+25.5%) - Pavano has recorded 2 QS against two quality opponents (@LAA, vsBOS) with a 10:1 K:BB ratio. His next start is versus KC, so he should continue to succeed.

HITTER DROPS (data as of 04/17/2010)

• OF Kyle Blanks, SD (-20.1%) - Blanks still has 25+ HR potential as a 4th or 5th outfielder in deep leagues but his low average (.229) and high strikeouts (13 K in 10 G) may be too much to stomach for most owners.
• OF Chris Coghlan, FLA (-18.6%) - Coghlan started off poorly (.132 BA and .307 OPS) and has  been battling a ribs injury. These factors may have caused the mass bails. If you have the roster flexibility, he may be a good stash (especially if he's forced to the DL) until he rights the wrongs.
• C Mike Napoli, LAA (-17.6%) - Jeff Mathis somehow stole all of Napoli's ABs and it doesn't look like it will get any better. Definitely a dump in single-catcher formats. Rumors of a trade may make him ownable in two-catcher formats.
• C Miguel Montero, ARI (-17.2%) - I truly don't understand this one unless your league does not include DL slots. If some frustrated owner in your league can't wait four-to-six weeks for a top 5 catcher to return from injury, get him and stash him on your DL until he's back. Some people's kids...
• OF Julio Borbon, TEX (-14.2%) - Another head-scratcher here. Yes, Borbon has started off slowly (.097 BA, 1 SB), but his ADP of 144.6 means people are already giving up on a 12th round pick. Again, grab him and be patient. Texas has committed to Borbon and so should you.

PITCHER DROPS (data as of 04/17/2010)

• RP Mike Gonzalez, BAL (-23.8%) - The Orioles were slow to put him on the DL, which probably caused frustrated owners (of which I was one) to dump him for RP Jim Johnson.
• RP Frank Francisco, TEX (-20.6%) - Another closer that lost his job and was worth the drop unless your league utilizes Holds.
• RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA (-18.8%) - Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon were expected to battle it out for the closer role but what good is a closer if you aren't winning games. Not sure he was worth the drop already, so pick him up if you are desperate for potential saves.
• RP Jason Frasor, TOR (-16.2%) - Not often that a closer with three saves loses his role within the first ten games of the season, but the numbers don't lie: 2 BSV, 5.06 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, .407 OBA
• SP Stephen Strasburg, WAS (-13.6%) - Not surprising that he's being dropped. The real fun is when he becomes the guy to add. Keep an eye on all news related to Strasburg's call up and jump all over the chance to own him.

What players are you adding or dumping this early in the season and why?

200 Visitors!

I just wanted to take a moment to celebrate a personal milestone for COSFBA. 200 VISITORS is a big deal to me. It's nice to know that I am no longer writing about fantasy baseball for myself and that hopefully others are appreciating what I do.

I'd really appreciate some feedback to those of you that are popping through my little, tiny corner of cyberspace.

Sincerely,
Daniel aka daCommish

A Steady Stream: 04/15/2010

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league. My goal is to revisit the streamers to see how accurate (or not) my assessment of the risk was.

Streaming pitchers is a practice that is hated by many fantasy baseball managers and is often used to exploit a hole in your league's settings and configuration. If there is no cap on innings pitched, a "streamer" can attempt to chase Wins at the expense of categories such as ERA and WHIP. Personally, I stream pitchers in every league and every format because on draft day I usually go after several front-of-the-rotation pitchers and then use my late round picks to fill holes I may have with my hitters. Usually only one or two of those players will pan out, so I'll start using those other roster positions to stream pitchers with favorable match ups and obviously available on waivers.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Friday, 04/16/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

• Wade Davis, TB (53% E; 15% Y!) @ BOS vs. Josh Beckett - Pitching in the potent AL East is always risky and opening the season against the NY Yankees proved that point (6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, L). Matching up versus Josh Beckett in Boston and the potent Boston lineup could make the start of the 2010 season a forgettable one for Davis. RISK: EXTREMELY HIGH
• Derek Lowe. ATL (47% E; 65% Y!) @ home vs. COL - Lowe has won his first two decisions of 2010 but not in pretty fashion (6:10 K:BB, 6 ER, 12 IP). Colorado's lineup has some injuries (Hawpe, CarGo) but their replacements (Spilborghs, Fowler, Seth Smith) can still do damage in a hitters park. RISK: MODERATE
• Dallas Braden, OAK (38% E; 47% Y!) @ home vs. BAL - Braden should be a definite own after starting the season with 12 K, 2 BB, 9 H, 4 ER in 13 IP. Baltimore should be an easy mark for this up-and-coming pitcher. RISK: LOW
• Shaun Marcum, TOR (35% E; 46% Y!) @ home vs. LAA - Marcum has already flirted with a no-hitter and has posted two strong outings so far, amassing 11 K versus 2 BB and 10 H in 13 IP. The Angels have a lineup that can do a lot of damage on any given day. Another strong outing by Marcum could solidify him as a must-own pitcher in all formats. RISK: SLIGHT
• Zack Duke, PIT (5% E; 12% Y!) @ home vs. CIN - Duke has 2 wins already in 2010 and I wouldn't be surprised if those were his only two wins this year. I've been burned way too many times by streaming a Pittsburgh starting pitcher and can't bring myself to recommending anyone but the loyal or foolish to stream him. RISK: DANGER!
• Mike Leake, CIN (3% E; 8% Y!) @ PIT - Streaming against Pittsburgh usually has its benefits and Leake didn't fair as poorly as his numbers might suggest in his debut (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 5 K, just 57 of 107 pitches for strikes). Not a game for the faint of heart. RISK: HIGH
• Jeremy Bonderman, DET (2% E; 6% Y!) @ SEA vs. Felix Hernandez - This game has the feeling of a 3-2 outcome and can go either way. Seattle is not scoring runs and Bonderman is still regaining his strength but his first outing was encouraging (5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W). RISK: MODERATE
• Carlos Silva, CHC (0.4% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs. HOU - The Astros look hapless so far and are a good team to stream against. Silva had a nice debut at CIN (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) and could be a steal in virtually all leagues. Just remember that he still is Carlos Silva. RISK: SLIGHT
• Todd Wellemeyer, SF (0.2% E; 1% Y!) @ LAD - Sometimes streaming isn't about how well a pitcher is pitching (6.1 IP, 5.68 ERA, .387 OBA, 1.74 WHIP) but about how poorly his opponent (Padilla - 8.2 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 2.08 WHIP) pitching. The Dodgers lineup is capable of putting up a lot of runs, so tread lightly. RISK: HIGH

I'm looking forward to seeing how these picks pan out and to hear other opinions on the pros and cons of the streaming strategy. What policies have been put in place in your leagues to curtail such practices?

Waiver Saviors: 04/14/2010

Waiver Saviors will be a semi-regular column that looks at players owned in approximately 50% or less of all Yahoo! or ESPN leagues, are currently having a significant statistical impact, and may be worth owning especially if your team has gotten out of the gate slowly. Here are some inaugural candidates:

• OF Scott Podsednik, KC (27% E; 41% Y!) - If you drafted him, it was for his speed and so far he has not disappointed (6 SB; 0 CS). What you probably didn't expect is a .452 BA and a 1.012 OPS. Grab him if he's still available in your league and stolen bases are a stat category.
• SS Alex Gonzalez, TOR (27% E; 32% Y!) - Toronto is winning and Gonzalez has been a big part of that with 4 HR (all solo), 27 TB, .324 BA, 1.155 OPS and 1 SB. If your primary shortstop (Alexei Ramirez)  or middle infielder player has gotten off to a slow start, grab Gonzalez while the "gettin' is good".
• SP Carl Pavano, MIN (19% E; 36% Y!) - Pavano has won both of his starts (@LAA, vsBOS), going 13 IP with 10 hits allowed while posting an incredible 10:1 K:BB ratio. Definitely worth owning going into his next start against Kansas City.
• RP Kevin Gregg, TOR (16% E; 35% Y!) - Gregg has accumulated 3 SV while CL Jason Frasor (3 SV, 2 BSV) struggles. He should definitely be owned, especially while Toronto is winning and Frasor is shaky.
• OF Jose Guillen, KC (5% E; 13% Y!) - His 4 HR, 25 TB and .313 BA are all very usable stats while you wait for other bats on your roster to heat up.
• SP Ricky Romero, TOR (15% E; 49% Y!) - He's currently posting Halladay-esque numbers (15 IP, 16 K, 6 H, 1.80 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 16:4 K:BB) against two tough opponents (@TEX, vsCHW). His next start is vsLAA, so you may want to wait and see how he fares against that lineup but he may not be available much longer if he keeps throwing up these kinds of numbers.
• RP LaTroy Hawkins, MIL (1.3% E; 12% Y!) - He's tied for the MLB lead with 4 HLD with some nice peripherals like 16.20 K/9 and a 6:1 K:BB ratio. CL Trevor Hoffman is 1-1 with 2 SV and 2 BSV. Hawkins could be in line to pick up some saves while Hoffman works to get back on track.
• OF Jeff Francoeur, NYM (46% E; 52% Y!) - Francoeur is currently 4th in the MLB in Runs Created (RC) with 11.38. The rest of the Top 5 are guys you may have heard of: Nelson Cruz, Albert Pujols, Vernon Wells and Ryan Howard. He'll never be a "sexy" fantasy outfielder to own, but should be owned while posting a .440 BA and a 1.380 OPS.
• 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (10% E; 27% Y!) - Third base continues to be a shallow position, especially if your league uses a CI or INF. Rolen's 3 HR are tied for the MLB lead amongst 3Bers and his respectable .280 BA won't kill you.
• C Miguel Olivo, COL (5% E; 33% Y!) - Everyone that guessed the Colorado catching job was Chris Iannetta's guessed wrong (1/12 .083 BA). Olivo's 2 HR and robust .438 BA and 1.346 OPS should keep him getting regular ABs. He should definitely be owned in all two-catcher formats at this point.
• 1B Daric Barton, OAK (8% E; 10% Y!) - His 7 RBI, 11 BB and .346 BA are very nice from a guy that's not going to hit you many home runs (think Nick Johnson). If your league uses OBP, Barton's .526 makes him a definite own at this point.
• 1B/3B Ty Wigginton, BAL (0.9% E; 1% Y!) - Filling in for the injured Brian Roberts at second base, Wiggington has 4 hits, 2 of which were home runs, in the two games since taking over. Doesn't hurt that he's batting second in a lineup that should score some runs. Depending on your league settings, he should gain 2B eligibility before Roberts returns.
• OF Josh Willingham, WAS (29% E; 34% Y!) - Willingham is a great 4th or 5th OF option, depending on your leagues depth, and has done nothing but produce so far this season: 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 R, 17 TB, 5 BB, 1 SB, .391 BA, 1.222 OPS

Just to be clear, these are simply suggestions of guys that may be out there on waivers depending on the size of your league and/or knowledge (or lack thereof) of the other owners. Now is time to start reevaluating your roster, not destroying it.

Good luck!

Are there others I may have missed? Some of these players may have been late-round picks for you that are paying off. Feel free to boast about your successes here.