Line of the Day: David Ortiz: August 8th, 2011

David Ortiz went 4-for-5 with a double, home run and go-ahead single with two outs in the ninth inning to lead the Boston Red Sox to an 8-6 victory over the Minnesota Twins. In 42 career games against the Twins, he's hitting .327 with 11 homers and 31 RBI. (video recap)

Line: 5 AB | 3 R | 4 H | 3 RBI; 2B | HR

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Ortiz has put up a standard 5x5 line of .295/62/22/74/1 and is on pace for a .295/88/31/105/1 season. Not bad for a player drafted, on average, 135th in ESPN leagues, 156th in Yahoo! leagues and 127th in CBS leagues. He's currently ranked 43rd overall according to ESPN's Player Rater tool.

At 35 years of age, it's amazing to see his K% drop to a career-low of 12.9%. To put that in perspective, his K% in 1997 was 37.3% and 48% in 1999 (small sample size). He's still striking out much lass than his 18.4% career rate.

Question: Do the Red Sox owe it to "Big Papi" to reward him with the two-year contract he's seeking after this season or do they simply let him walk away as a free agent?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Fantasy Baseball Investment Market: It's a Sellers Market!

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians
Why would you move your ace for prospects? Only reason it makes sense is that you are trying to sell high. I've been saying all season long that Ubaldo is not the same pitcher he was before the All-Star break last season. Yes, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season but the same can be said of any starting pitcher in the game. If you can find a manager who feels that a change of scenery is just what Jimenez needs to get back on track…take advantage. There is nothing suggesting the Ubaldo of old is coming back soon, if ever. Colorado was smart to unload him while he still held value. You'd be smart to do the same.

SELL Ubaldo has been showing signs of wear of tear since last season. His velocity has been notably down all of 2011. I still maintain there is an injury hiding somewhere. Unfortantely for Cleveland, it still hasn't presented itself.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
"The Freak" has traditionally had terrible Augusts but his performances leading up to the month have usually been money in the bank. This season, he's starting to show signs of weakness.

The first red flag is his walk rates have increased in each of the past three seasons:
2009 2.72 BB9 / 7.5 BB%
2010 3.22 BB9 / 8.5 BB%
2011 3.56 BB9 / 9.6 BB%

In addition, his K/9 (still at elite levels) are trending downward:
2009 10.42
2010 9.79
2011 9.64

Anytime I see pitcher with trends opposite of what I want to see, I get nervous. If I see that pitcher's bottom line being affected by the aforementioned, I start to panic. Lincecum already has nine losses this season. He had ten losses last season and only seven losses the year before. If you can unload him based on name value alone, do it. If you're in a keeper league, I still suggest the same course of action.

SELL! The leak in the hull is still small enough that many probably haven't noticed yet. This ship is going down.

Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox
You don't need me to tell you Crawford has been a major bust this season. You don't need me to tell you that Crawford has always had trouble with left-handed pitching. Did you know: Fenway has generally provided major trouble for left-handed hitters in the past? He left his comfy situation in Tropicana for a payday with a chance at winning it all with Boston. He may get his ring but he won't be the reason why the Red Sox win one.

2009 672PA / 15HR / 60SB / .305AVG / .816OPS
2010 663PA / 19HR / 47SB / .307AVG / .851OPS
2011 338PA / 7HR / 12SB / .245AVG / .659OPS

In 2011, he's hitting .139 vs LHP / .292 vs RHP and .250 Home / .238 Away
In 2010, he hit .254 vs LHP / .329 vs RHP and .295 Home / .311 Away
In 2009, he hit .269 vs LHP / .322 vs RHP and .295 Home / .315 Away

This is a guy whose value lies not only in his speed but in his ability to hit for power. If you take away his 20 HR potential and .800+ OPS, he's merely a high priced Michael Bourn. Take away his speed and he's practically worthless in fantasy. In some circles, his name value and previous draft position may still hold weight. If this is the case and you can sell him fifty-cents on the dollar, you should do it. Yes, he was slightly injured some this season but his struggles began long before we started to hear any excuses for poor performance. This is not a player who is going to rebound anytime soon.

2011 (by month)
March/April 1 HR / 4 SB / .155 BA
May 3 HR / 3 SB / .301 BA
June 2 HR / 1 SB / .278 BA
July 0 HR / 4 SB / .250 BA
August 1 HR / 0 SB / .250 BA

SELL! A speed/power guy with limited power and no speed who can't hit lefties and plays in a lefty killing park is worth what to you? Get rid of him.

Have questions, comments or suggestions for future articles? Please use the comments section below or hit me up on Twitter @SheriffStathead.

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition

The Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while several big moves were conspired (I'll probably write my thoughts on Ubaldo Jimenez in a future article), the back end of most 'pens stayed intact. The Rangers added major depth with Mike Adams and Koji Uehara as they try and repeat once more as the AL Champions. Brad Ziegler, former Oakland A, has been shuttled off to Arizona. Other than that, stability reigned in the AL. Certainly there's bound to be Waiver Wire activity in the coming weeks, and I'm sure we'll have more news as it comes.

But for now, let's look at last week's performers:

• Jonathan Papelbon saw action in one game this past week, where he slammed the door on the Chicago White Sox in a perfect ninth inning. He struck out the side, and notched his 24th save of the season.
• Grant Balfour came into three games, pitched three innings, and only allowed two hits. He also got two knockouts, but no holds or saves as the games (all wins) were already well-in-hand.
• Andrew Bailey showed up in two games (like Balfour's games, both well-in-hand so no saves), and gave up an unearned run on two hits in two innings pitched. He fanned three in the midsts of his work.
• Jordan Walden managed to get a save in two games, allowing two hits and getting two punch-outs. The Indians made his save very interesting (as Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard can attest to), but he managed to pull it out.

And this week's winners and losers:

• "Doing Work" - Mariano Rivera (NYY): In an occurrence that's of no surprise to anyone (100% ownership in ESPN leagues), Mo has been putting together a season to compare with the best ones of his career. A 1.74 ERA (4th lowest in his career), a 7.40 K/BB ratio (2nd best), a 0.6% HR (2nd best), and he's averaging 14 pitches per game in relief, the best in his career. I really don't have to say much about Mo. He's 41, still dealing over 90 MPH on his heat, and his numbers over the last 4 seasons have been much better than his career averages. He does seem to be getting hit more easily (.294 BAbip this season vs. .264 career), but with a FIP this year of 1.88 (right in line with his season ERA, 0.87 better than his career average, and the best in his career), he is still an insanely effective pitcher. He has 587 saves on his career, and knowing the Yankees and their fight in the AL East, he will hit 600 before the season's end. I'm not a Yankee fan, but I do know a superstar player when I see one. Mo is one for the ages.
• "Unsung Hero" - David Robertson (NYY): Behind every great closer, there's usually a great set-up man. In the real-life Gotham City, Mo's Batman is accompanied by 'Robin' Robertson. David has only been in the Bigs for four years, so saying a season is his best so far isn't difficult. However, the amount of improvement he's shown has been amazing. His ERA this year is 1.90 below his average, his FIP is 1.35 lower, and his WHIP (while not impressive) is 0.11 lower. His LOB % (85.5), GB % (46.0), and K/9 ratio (14.46) are all much higher than his career marks. He's picked up 2 MPH on his fastball, almost 3 MPH on his curve, and a touch over 3 MPH on his changeup. He has a wide range of speeds, and has enough control to get batters to slap ground balls down. Plus, there's the fact of him not giving up a single home run all season. He's grabbed 21 holds for the year so far, so he's definitely worth a pick-up in holds and deep leagues. He could be next in line to take over closing duties after Mo retires. If he continues on his upward trend, the drop-off after Rivera will be much, much less than I think anyone anticipates.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Neftali Feliz (TEX): There may have been a reason behind the Rangers' acquisition of Adams and Uehara, and it might be to back Feliz up in a possible "closer-by-committee" situation if he continues to struggle. I know I've written about Feliz before. At the time, I wrote that he'd possibly be coming around. Well, so far, not so good: a loss (and a blown save in the process) and a save in his last two games. He gave up two runs on three hits in 1.1 innings pitched, with a walk and a strikeout. Yes, as I stated before, he's coming off a horrible month of June. His month of July wasn't great: 0-1 record, 5 Sv, 4.00 ERA, 9 IP in 10 G, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. While it was an improvement on June, there's still a lot of work to get back to the sub-2.00 ERAs of April and May. His last 28 days numbers (save the ERA) are trending more towards his '11 season numbers, so there is still a chance for Feliz to pull it together and end his season strong. There may be less pressure on Feliz in this pennant race now that Adams and Uehara are both Rangers, but I don't see a change in the role of closer unless Feliz completely falls on his face.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Jon Rauch (TOR): The Blue Jays do have an outside chance at the Playoffs: only 10.5 games out of the Wild Card lead, and an above-.500 record. If they were in the AL Central, they'd be tied with the Indians at two games out of the lead. However, Jon Rauch isn't exactly helping them get there. Over his last three games (2.2 IP), he's given up two runs on three hits, only grabbing two strikeouts. With a WHIP of 1.500, an OPS of .876 and a BAbip of .357 over the last four weeks, it's really doubtful that this is just a 'phase'. With a low GB% (36.6), a high HR/9 ratio (1.62), and a FIP of almost 5 (4.82), there's something more to all of this. Rauch has lost speed on all his pitches (1.5 MPH on his fastball alone) along with an increased reliance on his changeup (10.7% this year, up from 6.2% a year ago). The problem comes into effect when you consider his average fastball is at 89.4 MPH, his average slider is 84.6 MPH, and his average changeup is 83.7 MPH. A 5.7 MPH difference between a pitcher's hard stuff and his "finesse" pitches is definitely not a good thing, and tends to get him hit hard. The unfortunate thing is that the next-in-line for the closer role, Frank Francisco, is not much better. The Jays may want to consider a Waiver Wire move for 'pen help, or any hope of Playoffs for them is moot.

 The NL will be on report on Thursday as usual. As always, comment below or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming Up In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 26th, 2011

Greetings and salutations!

This is likely to be a shorter article than usual this week; Outside-of-COSFBA considerations are taking precedence. However, I'm going to try and get as much goodness out with a few less words than normal. So with that out of the way, here's a quick review of last week's performers:

• Neftali Feliz saw only one game of work in the last week (yesterday). He gave up a hit and a walk in one inning in an absolute pummeling of Minnesota. Manager Ron Washington stated that the long layoff for Feliz wasn't by design, with an off-day and only one save opportunity cropping up (in the 6th on July 20th against the Angels). Feliz was working on the side during the stretch. It's interesting to note that Feliz had a six-day 'vacation' which included the All-Star Break last year, and was lights-out in his remaining performances. Could we be due for a repeat?
• Speaking of the Twins, closer Joe Nathan saw two games this past seven days. He allowed a run on two hits in two innings, striking out one. He was 2-for-2 in the save chances to give him a total of seven on the year. If the Twins have any chance of competing once more in the suddenly-clogged AL Central, Nathan will need to continue to be steady and solid in the back of the 'pen like he has been lately. He has the opportunity to show that the early season was just "knocking off the rust".
• Vinnie Pestano also worked two games and was roughed up for two runs on four hits, including a longball in last night's dramatic Indians comeback win against the Angels. He had only one strikeout in his two innings of work this past week. He blew the save last night on a 1-0 four-seamer Bobby Abreu promptly deposited in the right field seats. The recent streak of work for the "Bullpen Mafia" has been troubling, and I'm starting to wonder (like last week) if the number of innings is starting to wear on the young arms. Pestano and the rest need to right the ship if the Tribe is going to stay in competition.
• Kevin Gregg served his three-game suspension but did work two games against LA over the past week. He notched a save in two innings pitched, giving up two hits and two walks, but two strikeouts as well. It'll be interesting to see if the "cooling of his heels" helps his game any going forward.

 Now let's move forward with this week's guns:

• "Doing Work": Jonathan Papelbon (BOS) - Paps once more makes an appearance in the 'Pen, and this time it's on the "good" side of the ledger. Since giving up the solo run against the Rays, Paps has been dominant. Five innings of work has seen him allow a grand total of one hit. He's also notched three saves and five strikeouts. He's always had solid months of July and August in his career, notching career ERAs under 2.25 each month (2.24 in July, 1.92 in August), WHIPs under 1.100 (0.980 / 1.067), OPSs under .585 (.566 / .584) and BABIPs under .300 (.262 / .293). Careerwise, his FIP has actually been worst in the month of June (3.26), steadily dropping in July (2.91) and even more dramatically in August (2.27). In my opinion, Paps has turned the corner with the turn of the calendar month. The fact that he has full ownership in ESPN leagues shows that the rest of the fantasy owners are keeping the faith in Paps and the Red Sox fight in the AL East race.
• "Unsung Hero": Grant Balfour (OAK) - The Athletics set-up man has been having a stellar campaign, and the last seven days have been no exception. In three outings (3.1 innings total), Balfour is 3-for-3 in holds (18 on the season), giving up three hits, walking one and fanning one. The 2.03 ERA he's accumulated on the year is the second best in his career (his 1.54 ERA with the '08 Rays the only one better). His FIP overall this year (3.11) is better than his career average (3.42), and there are other numbers that are better this year versus his career averages (.237 BAbip vs. .281, 2.56 K/BB ratio vs. 2.38, 1.05 WHIP vs. 1.26, .541 OPS vs. .647). He's coming off of a strained right oblique, and has shown no lingering or ill effects. The fact that he's not seemingly well-known (1.6% ESPN league ownership, only up 0.3% from last week) means he might be more of a depth league pick. However, he's well worth the grab even in your more standard leagues if he's available.
• "Heart Attack Award": Andrew Bailey (OAK) - Bailey's last seven days haven't been horrible. He's given up one run on two hits in three innings, walking three and striking out five. While grabbing saves in each of those appearances, allowing base runners is never a good sign. His FIP throughout his career has exceeded his ERA (2.44 FIP vs. 2.25 ERA this season alone, a more dramatic 2.96 vs. 1.47 last season). Interestingly, he's been throwing more fastballs than ever in his career (78.2% vs. a 65.0% career average), but with a one-MPH drop in average speed. It might not be much of a change, but combine that with a similar drop across the board with all his pitches, and you start to wonder if there might be an issue with Bailey's mechanics. Be it an actual flaw or hitch in his delivery, or perhaps wear and tear, there could be cause for future concern. This isn't enough for me to say to stay away from Andrew; I'm no expert in the medical sciences or the 'sciences' of pitching. However, it's safe to say there's something more here than what's on the surface. Be wary, and only grab Bailey for depth. I have a feeling that Oakland, being out of the race as far as they are, may begin relying on the above-mentioned Balfour for saves sooner rather than later.
• "ZOMBIE!": Jordan Walden (LAA) - The Angel's All-Star closer has been having a good season, but his recent outings have been a mixed bag. Last night, he blew a save (and got the loss) by giving up two runs on two hits (one of which was a game-tying double by Travis Hafner! Sorry, boss.), along with a walk and a strikeout. In the last week, those are the only runs he's given up. However, since June 22, he's gone 2-2, 6/10 saves, five runs, nine hits, three walks, and six strikeouts. This 'wilting under the pressure' during the Angels' attempt to keep up with the Rangers. During the last three months of the season in his (albeit short) career, his WHIPs (1.33 and 1.30), BABIPs (.429 and .333), and BB/9 ratio (3.00 and 4.38) are elevated. While this may be nothing, the fact that it's happening to a closer (whose entire purpose is to 'seal the deal' under pressure) on a team competing for a playoff spot against the AL Champions really brings into question the mental character of Walden in my mind. I can't cry 'fire sale' on him in your leagues, but I firmly believe that his recent performances are a prelude to a full-blown meltdown as the Angels continue to try to hang in the pennant race.

While there's been no major trade fires burning as of yet, we continue to keep an eye on things. We'll report what we find, and I'll have the NL side of the house on Thursday.

Comments below, or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 19th, 2011

Welcome back, faithful readers...

When we last left our intrepid AL setup men and closers, Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard were the studs of the week, and Jonathan Papelbon and Frank Francisco were the duds. Before we launch into this week's category winners (and in lieu of not having a K-Rod'esque deal to speak about), let's take a a look at how these gents performed over the last week:

• Soria appeared in one game this past week, notching a save in a KC 2-1 victory over the Twins. He faced five batters, giving up two hits. While not the kind of performance worthy of a dominant closer, Soria continues to be a bright spot for a Royals team that generally doesn't have much to cheer about.
• Bard has run his scoreless streak to 21.2 IP with two appearances totaling 2.1 IP post-All-Star Break. He grabbed another hold (his league-leading 22nd), fanning two, walking one, and allowing two hits. Bard continues to be solid deep-league material, and should (in my opinion) be considered high market value.
• Papelbon gave up one run on two hits in two innings pitched over his latest two appearances. He fanned two and claimed his 21st save of the year. Paps continues to give the BoSox fans their MLB daily allowance of cursing and sweating this season. But Paps being Paps, he should be relatively solid (while continuing to "excite") the rest of the campaign.
• Francisco was indeed moved back into the Jays' set-up role coming out of the All-Star Break, and has appeared in two games. In 2.1 IP, he allowed a hit, and struck out one. It's hard to say if he'll turn the corner once more, but racking up scoreless appearances for, say, the rest of this month? That couldn't hurt his chances to come back to the closer's role (currently held by Jon Rauch)

Now, for this week's performers:

• This week's pitcher that's "Doing Work" is Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been stupid good lately. Since taking one on the chin July 3rd against the Marlins (a game in which Mark Lowe blew the save opp and took the loss when a pickoff attempt failed, and Feliz allowed the last of Florida's 4 9th-inning runs), the Rangers have rattled off 11 straight wins. Feliz has been a large part of that. Since the Florida game, Feliz has given up a run on one hit in 5.1 IP, with a walk and four Ks and notching four saves. That includes three perfect outings this past week (2.1 IP) with three Ks and two saves. On the year, his surface numbers are good: 20-for-24 in saves, 2.97 ERA, 26 Ks in 36.1 IP, batters hitting .200 off him. With most things, however, there's a catch. His season numbers in most of the major categories are trending worse than his career averages, which leads me to believe that the advance scouts and batters are starting to figure him out in his second full season: ERA (2.97 in '11 vs 2.57 career), WHIP (1.183 vs 0.915), K/BB ratio (1.44 vs 3.09), GO/AO ratio (0.47 vs 0.58), and FIP (4.45 vs 3.25). While I'm not saying that he's someone to be wary of (he had a very off month of June, which could account for a lot of inflation), owners should be aware also that Feliz's name has been brought up in the trade rumor mills. My advice is to ride Neftali for what he's worth this year, keep a backup option (always wise advice all the same), and if you need to part with him, try to get good value based on overall numbers (plus the fact that he was the '10 Rookie of the Year) and not on a rocky month of June.
• The "Unsung Hero" of the week is the Twins' Joe Nathan. This year's been rough on both Nathan and the Twins in general. Minnesota's found themselves down near the bottom of the pack since the early season, being feasted upon by the injury bug; Nathan being one of the big names to go down for the Twinkies back in May with a right flexor strain. He wound up being out of the lineup for about a month; there was no reason to rush Nathan back, being a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. His first month and a half this season was forgettable, as the rust was obvious. But then the Twins started to pick up their pace and win games, the pack in the AL Central started to close, and Nathan came back in late June. In the 10 games since his return, he's been nothing short of stellar: 2-for-3 in saves, six holds, 9.1 IP, one run on four hits, zero walks, seven Ks. A lot of folks may have sold the farm on Nathan when he went on the DL (or earlier, fearing he wouldn't ever be the same post-surgery), but Matt Capps' implosion as the Twins' closer opens the door for a resurging Nathan. Obviously picking up Nathan at this point won't get you his hold numbers, but it will get you a pitcher that's thrown up a .344 OPS, a .125 BAbip, and a 0.429 WHIP since coming off the DL. And while those numbers are a lot to sustain for the rest of the campaign, the Twins being back in the race will have them leaning on Nathan much more now, giving him plenty of chances to excel and show his stuff from years past.
• My pick for the "Heart Attack Award", as much as it pains me to say it, is my Indians' own Vinnie Pestano (thought I was gonna say Chris "Pure Rage" Perez, didn't you?). The "Bullpen Mafia" has been the key to Cleveland's upstart success this season so far, and "Capo" Pestano has been one of the huge lifts that have allowed the 'pen to be so successful. His recent outings, however, have been offers that fantasy owners could refuse. Over his last 10 games, he's amassed a hefty 7.56 ERA (8.1 IP, 7 ER) on nine hits, three walks and 14 Ks. He was 2-for-3 in saves in the period with three holds. It's entirely possible that this is a bump in the road in a very young career (this being Pestano's first full year in the Majors). It will be interesting to keep watch, however. Considering the ineffectiveness of starters Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot (whom is on the DL at this time), the recent struggles of Carlos Carrasco, and the continued absence of promising rookie hurler Alex White, the Tribe bullpen will likely see a lot of work in the coming games as the rotation is jury-rigged together. Will the young guns hold it together? Or will lack of innings prior to all this work this year come back to bite 'em in the rear? Stay tuned on that. As for Pestano, I would advise getting him for depth in your advanced leagues. He's always good to pull holds out of the air (13 on the year), can back up Chris Perez in case of needing saves (he's come in in 18 save situations), and his deeper numbers (0.963 WHIP, .550 OPS, .260 BAbip, and 2.33 FIP) trend towards his recent issues being just blips on the radar screen.
• This week's "ZOMBIE!" was a little hard to pick out. And while I hate to kick a guy while he's down, I felt that Kevin Gregg of the Baltimore Orioles was probably the worst guy in the last little while. His last 10 games fleshed out like so: 9.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 Sv. His overall stats for the season? Not much better: 36 IP, 16 ER, 33 H, 24 BB, 31 K, 15/19 Sv. Digging deeper, I find some disturbing trends: As of right now, his WHIP (1.583), SO/BB ratio (1.29), and OPS (.769) are lining up to be the worst in his career. His FIP (4.69) is his second worst, with only his '09 Cubs campaign surpassing that (4.93). Maybe this suspension will help get Gregg's head on straight and salvage his '11 campaign. Or, maybe Koji Uehara will step up and make the Orioles' decision once Gregg comes off suspension a little harder. And maybe, just maybe, Gregg will learn how to throw a punch.

Be sure to tune in each Thursday for the NL side of things.

As always, you can hit up in the comment link below or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

In The Sabermetric Spotlight: Adrian Gonzalez

5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H and 2 BB. 10.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP, good for a loss.

The above line was from none other than Jair Jurrjens, whom I wrote about last Friday. Are his peripherals finally catching up with him, or is it the power of the Spotlight?

This week, we'll switch leagues and fantasy categories. Much like Jurrjens, Boston's first baseman has been maybe the biggest sensation of the first half in his respective league. I don't think anyone is really surprised by his numbers, as the talent has always been there. Lets take a more in depth look, as we put this week's Sabermetric Spotlight on...

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B Boston Red Sox

Heading into 2011, everyone was expecting a huge year from A-Gone. Any hitter would show improved numbers moving from PETCO to Fenway, on park dimensions alone. You also have to account for the lineups. Would you rather take San Diego's opening day lineup of Tony Gwynn and David Eckstein (in front of AGon), or Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis? You gotta be kidding me? If Gonzalez posted similar numbers to his 2010 campaign at Petco, you would have to consider 2011 a disappointment.

First lets talk about the ballpark factor. Everyone knows that PETCO literally eats up base hits, and turns home runs into routine fly balls. How would Gonzalez's numbers translate to a much more hitter-friendly park in Fenway? Below, courtesy of http://katron.org/, the graphic displays every one of Adrian Gonzalez's balls in play at PETCO in 2010, overlapped on a graphic with Fenway's dimensions.


Granted, 2D graphics do not take into account the green monster, but it's safe to say that the 13+ fly outs (denoted by orange dots) to left field alone would have either been home runs or doubles, significantly raising batting average, and possibly adding some counting stats onto his already stud-worthy fantasy line. I also count 7 balls that were either fly outs or doubles to right field that would have been home runs at Fenway. No matter what way you look at it, Fenway plays to AGon's advantage. He seems to tend to ground balls to the right side, and fly balls to left field.

One last note about ball park factors. According to ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft, from 2005 to 2009 PETCO had a BABIP of .282 (ranked last) while Fenway's stood at .314 (ranked 3rd).

That's all well and good, but the past is the past, what about how his current numbers? Adrian Gonzalez has lived up to the billing in 2011, and then some. His line for the season* are shown below.


That's good enough for the #1 ranked First Baseman in ESPN leagues, which is no small feat. So far, he's posting a career high in AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS, and significantly higher numbers than his career averages in those categories. He's also on pace for career highs in Runs, RBI's and SB's (a whopping 2). But where is the power? Gonzalez is on pace to hit less than 31 HR's for the first time since 2006. Why aren't the balls flying out of Fenway as we predicted?

Part of the reason that Gonzalez's HR numbers are down, are some of his puzzling peripherals. His LD% (Line-Drive Percentage) is at 19.5%, the lowest it's been since 2007. His ground ball percentage (GB%) is at an alarming 47.5%, by far the highest it's been in his career. Also alarming, his fly ball percentage (FB%) is at a career low; 33.0%, which is possibly the biggest factor in his HR total being where it's at. His BB% is at a 6-year low, sitting at 8.7% and his ISO (Isolated Power) is actually close to his career average.

How do you combine all that, and still have the career year Gonzalez is having? The simple answer is the players around him. It's easier to drive in runs when the guys in front of you get on base more, and it's easier to get good pitches to hit when you have other threats in the lineup behind you. In Boston, on any given night, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will be hitting in front of Gonzalez (amongst others) and Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz will be hitting behind him. There really isn't a soft spot in this lineup, so you have to pitch to every hitter. That was not the case in San Diego, where Gonzalez was the only real threat in the lineup. With no real run producer behind you, it's easier to just pitch around you then pitch-to-contact.

I think the real reason Gonzalez is having the career year he is, is patience. Taking a look at his Plate Discipline numbers, Gonzalez's Contact% (contact rate on swings) is at a career high, standing at 83.4 percent. No being known for having a particularly high contact rate, this is a good sign for Gonzalez. Digging a little deeper, his O-Contact% (contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone) and Z-Contact% (contact rate on pitches in the strike zone) are also at career highs, being 73% and 91%, respectively. It appears as though Gonzalez is embracing his place in the Red Sox lineup and becoming a patient, contact hitter.

As with statistics, you can always find something else that will contradict the point you just made, which is why I point out that Gonzalez's O-Swing% (swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone) of 35.8% is a career high, much like his 69.4% Z-Swing% (swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone) is at a career low. I wouldn't put too much weight on these numbers though, as they can be misleading, especially when you consider the different pitching styles in the AL and NL, ball park factors, and lineup factors.

There is no doubt about it, Gonzalez is having a great year, and very well might be the #1 rated first baseman (or overall player) at the end of the year, as far as Fantasy Baseball is concerned. Putting everything I just mentioned above into consideration, I see two possible paths that AGon could take to end the year. The first would be to continue to develop into a patient hitter, wracking up career highs in Average, Runs, RBI's and others. The other, and more likely in my opinion, is that Gonzalez will continue to adapt to Boston, and as the pressue of being the best player on the best team in baseball wears off, he can start to let loose, and take it out on the baseball. As good as AGon has been in the first half, I would not be surprised one bit if he has an even better second half.

Do you have a comment about the article? Do you have a suggestion for the next player featured In The Sabermetric Spotlight? Hit me up on twitter @SillyLittleGame or leave a comment below!

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 16th, 2011.

Waiver Saviors: The Slim Shady Edition

Regardless of the early returns, guys like Eric Hosmer, Anthony Rizzo and Mike Moustakas are names you heard of long before seeing them on Sports Center. Most of baseball's can't-miss rookies burst onto the fantasy baseball scene with tons of hype and are usually owned in any league worth a damn way before they ever set foot in a major league stadium.

But what about the rookies who come onto the scene with little-to-no hype whatsoever yet are quietly proving to be fantasy relevant to the savvy fantasy owner who isn't afraid to dig a little deeper into the depths of the waiver wire.

The following players are letting their numbers speak for themselves. And those numbers are screaming, "Hi! My name is...what? My name is...who?":

• OF Alex Presley, PIT (16.9% ESPN; 9% Yahoo!) is sporting a very impressive 5x5 line of .343/12/1/9/4 in 15 games since replacing the injured Jose Tabata. The Pirates will have a difficult decision to make once Tabata is activated and Garrett Jones could be the odd man out. Don't be surprised if Jones is traded for some pitching. (25 years old)
• SS Zack Cozart, CIN (2.1% ESPN; 4% Yahoo!) is the shortstop of the future for the Reds and is showing fantasy owners what to expect in 2012 with a six-game hitting streak to start his big-league career and an impressive .400/5/1/2/0 5x5 line. Let's see how Dusty Baker manages to mess this rookie up, too. (25 years old)
• OF Eric Thames, TOR (30.3% ESPN; 12% Yahoo!) is keeping his name in the mix for playing time in a crowded Blue Jays outfield with a .308/23/4/14/0 fantasy line over the first 32 games of his young career. Shipping Juan Rivera to the Dodgers and Corey Patterson becoming Corey Patterson again has helped but a hot-hitting Travis Snider may stand in his way for regular at-bats. (24 years old)
• OF Josh Reddick, BOS (2.1% ESPN; 3% Yahoo!) has had two previous, unsuccessful auditions with the Red Sox (27 games in 2009 and 29 games in 2010) resulting in a .182 batting average in 121 at-bats. In 26 games this season, Reddick has put up a .352/16/3/17/1 line and could be pushing free agent J.D. Drew out the door come the July 31st trade deadline. (24 years old)
• 2B Jemile Weeks, OAK  (24.2% ESPN; 18% Yahoo!) is doing all he can to not be simply known as "Rickie Weeks' little brother". He's used the first 35 games of his career this season to produce a .319/17/0/11/10 fantasy line and allowed Oakland to ship Mark Ellis off to Colorado for minor league pitcher Bruce Billings. He will never have the power Rickie possesses but show rack up plenty of steals sitting atop the Athletics lineup. (24 years old)

I would never suggest throwing in the towel on your season but at some point (soon) you'll need to be realistic  about if you are playing to win in 2011 or building a foundation of keepers and/or dynasty players for 2012. Don't go crazy stockpiling your team with tons of prospects over proven veterans because sometimes the label of "can't-miss prospect" causes fantasy owners to overvalue a player's potential and could destroy a future season before it ever gets underway.

Question: Which of these five players are you buying into for the 2012 season and why?

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 17th, 2011

Line of the Day: July 17th, 2011

Josh Beckett pitched eight scoreless innings of one-hit ball but received a no-decision in the Boston Red Sox' 1-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays in 16 innings. He retired the last 22 batters he faced and showed no signs that the knee injury which caused him to removed early from his last start was still an issue.

Line: 8 IP | 1 H | 0 ER | 0 BB | 6 K; ND, QS

My fantasy perspective: Beckett has had two starts at Tampa Bay this season which have produced the following results: 17 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. He's now 8-4 in 18 career starts with 131 strikeouts in 119.1 innings pitched. It's safe to safe he has the Rays number.

Everything about Beckett in 2011 screams "overachiever", yet he keeps producing at astonishing rates. The good stuff: he's now 8-3 with a 2.12 ERA and a major league-best 0.89 WHIP, while batters are hitting just .178 against him. The worrisome stuff: his xFIP is 3.67, BABIP against is .214 and an 82.4 LOB%.

Question: When it comes to Beckett, would you be a fantasy baseball buyer or seller at this point?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

The Knurve To Say: Second Half Guarantees

This week, I have The Knurve to Say...
…the following eight things will happen in the second half!

1. Matt Kemp ends the year going 40/40. I know I have my Mike Stanton Mancrush, but my Kemp one is growing, as well. What’s not to like about a guy who's doing what he’s doing and is putting a team and an organization on his back? Sure, he was an embarrassment in the All-Star Game, but he's going to keep doing in the second half exactly what he did in the first half. If you take a look at his peripherals, his better batting eye and improved luck has contributed to his ascension. He's taking more walks than he did last year and he's striking out a little less. He's choosing better pitches to hit, he's hitting them, and he's running when he can.
2. The Chicago White Sox will win the AL Central, and it's going to be close with the…Detroit Tigers. I just can't do it. I can’t convince myself that the Cleveland Indians will hang in here. I expect improved performances from underperformers like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham alongside stronger pitching from John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson. There's too much talent, albeit streaky, on this White Sox team to think they can't win this division. I'm still a believer that this is their division to lose.
3. There are several guys who I think are at their peak value that I would look to deal while they’re this good. I know this may sound crazy, but many people in your league would consider Adrian Gonzalez the best player in the game right now. But I would use his Home Run Derby performance to your advantage if you own him. I think next year is the year we see the power out of him that we were all expecting. I think Gonzalez hits closer to the low 30's than the 40+ people expected. If you can fill holes with Gonzalez, who doesn’t contribute anything to one category as it is, then go ahead and sell him in a two-for-one. I feel the same way about Lance Berkman, Jair Jurrjens, Brennan Boesch and Michael Morse.
4. On the opposite end, here are guys who will have big second halves: Troy Tulowitzki (because he always does), Ichiro Suzuki, Rios, Dunn, Bud Norris, Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez.
5. If you want more in-depth answers on why I feel the way I do about the players in bullets #3 and #4, leave a comment.
6. Behind Kemp, the most valuable outfielder will be Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm starting to believe that he is capable of these power numbers. He's already eclipsed his career high in the majors or minors for one season, but I think the fact that he’s fully healthy and hitting in front of that offense makes him seeeeeeexy.
7. The Toronto Blue Jays win the AL Wild Card. I know it's bold, but I made this prediction on my blog at the beginning of the season and I'm sticking to it. They've had some disappointing offensive performers, but I think they are all capable of bouncing back. Aaron Hill will pick it up, Brett Lawrie will be an immediate contributor, Rajai Davis will have another fabulous second half, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista will keep mashing, and the pitching around Ricky Romero will be better. I believe in the Jays, and I don't think the New York Yankees pitching can be this good anymore. I think Bartolo Colon's outing on Thursday is indicative of bad things to come for the their rotation, especially with Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano's health problems and no Joba Chamberlain.
8. My division winners are: NL West: Giants, NL Central: Brewers, NL East: Phils, NL Wildcard: Braves, AL West, Rangers, AL Central: White Sox, AL East: Red Sox, AL Wildcard: Blue Jays.

No "Thoughts From The Week That Was" this week, so we're going to hop straight into the "Mike Stanton Mancrush Meter". Right now, it sits at a 5. He dropped 2 homers on Saturday in Wrigley, meaning he could be primed for a huge second half. Because of those two bombs, coupled with the fact that he's tweeting more, I will bump the meter up to a 7. And with my family potentially planning a trip to Miami to see a baseball game, the thought of seeing him in person is making me all oogly-googly.

Joke of the week: In the talks to decide where we may go for this vacation, my mother asked me "if there would be available seats at a Marlins game."

Follow me on @TheKnurve. Much love everybody.

Warming In The 'Pen: The Premier AL Edition: July 12th, 2011

It's that time, folks.

Welcome to the initial installment of "Warming In The 'Pen"! I'm Jeff, your MC for this ride, and I hope it can be fun and insightful for everyone involved!

In case you're just tuning in, the purpose of this article series is to cover your closer and short relief needs. I'll review the stats and info from the last week in baseball, and present you some news and views on who's hot, who's not, and who's possibly worth a second look. Facts mixed with a healthy dose of opinion is what I hope to offer up for your perusal, and I hope for constructive and lively debate and commentary right back. This is give and take, ladies and gents. We'll work best together, and that's how we'll get the most out of it.

A few little things first:

• Just a reminder that the AL side of the house publishes Tuesdays, and the NL publishes Thursdays. Both will receive my same treatments and attentions!
• Any opinions in these articles are purely my own. They don't necessarily represent COSFBA, any other contributors or writers, MLB, its affiliates and teams... Yada yada quasi-legalese.
• I do not consider myself an expert by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is to give opinions with some factual backing, but any ultimate moves and views are up to you, dear fantasy baseball GM.

Now onto the meat and potatoes!

The article series is going to consist of four sections per article, each featuring at least reliever of personal note for that particular section. In this initial article, I'll take the time to introduce each section, what I look for, and then give my week's picks for each. Starting with the NL article on Thursday, it'll be much more compact and an easier read.

Are we ready? Hope so because. Here. We. GO!

• The first section is called "Doing Work". Put simply, this is the section where the most solid performers over the last week (usually combined with a solid season-to-date) are stationed. In my opinion, this section features players that are likely a known quantity, but if you can find them running free in your league, they're worth an immediate look.
• This week's pick is Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals. While his overall numbers may not astound off the bat (4-3, 4.03 ERA, 15/20 Sv, 33 K, 1.26 WHIP), his more recent performances have been more in-line with his career stats. In his last 10 games (10 IP), he's given up 1 earned run, while racking up 7 saves and 12 Ks. His OPS is a more-than-reasonable .500, which I feel shows that he's turning the corner after a rough start (his current OPS is a lofty .696 on the year). He's coming back to being the closer, and the bright spot, that an overall dismal Royals team needs for any hopes of improvement.
• The next section is "Unsung Heroes".  This section highlights the performances that may have gone "under the radar". There's pitchers that might not be those household names, but I feel like there's value in the hidden gems here. Maybe it's a depth or 6x6 league, or maybe it's someone to look at to steal some stats. It's always going to be someone to keep an eye on.
• The "Unsung Hero" for the week is the Boston Red Sox Daniel Bard. You won't find a better Holds man in the league right now, with a total of 21 holds "in the clubhouse" (4 Holds just in the last 7 days). While this guy won't be giving you big standard numbers (1-4 record, 1/3 Sv), this guy is a massive pick-me-up to the Boston starting staff and long relief. He's only allowed 14% of inherited runners to score (that's 3/22) in 41 G. He's sporting a paltry .492 OPS and a .206 BAbip (Batting Average for Balls In Play). He has 44 Ks in 44 IP. And, oh by the way, he's not allowed a run in his last 19.1 IP. This guy's an unknown (only owned in 19% of ESPN leagues), absolutely rock-solid short reliever who's good for holds and Ks in deep and advanced leagues. He might also be the best available option in the BoSox bullpen for saves if Jonathan Papelbon was to go belly-up for any reason.
• Our third section is known as "The Heart-Attack Award". The recipients of this "award" are decent performers. Their methods, however, are the ones guilty of costing fans and fantasy owners hair, sleep, and quite possibly tens of dollars in antacids weekly. These pitchers will mostly be mid- to upper-tier pitchers that are having the recent up-and-down performances (those that are more prolonged get their own category). While the players in this section aren't ones I feel should be dumped like weeks-old milk, extra caution is advised.
• The first-ever Heart Attack Award goes to the aforementioned Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox. While Paps has notched 4 saves and 10 Ks over the last 7 days, he's given up 3 earned runs (including a longball) and 6 H in 5 IP in the same timeframe. When you take those numbers by themselves, he doesn't seem horrible. But takes these along with this week's line: 3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .669 OPS, .363 BAbip. He's on-pace to give up only 14 BB (close to a career best), but he's also on-pace to give up a career-worst 65 H. My interpretation and opinion is that Paps is either starting to swap his finesse for pure 'power pitching', or the league's hitters are starting to figure him out. His 0.51 GO/AO (Ground Outs / Air Outs) ratio seems to imply that he's getting hit harder (or at least more solidly) this season in comparison. It's something to keep a watch of.
• Lastly, we have the "ZOMBIE!" category. As the name implies, the players mentioned in this section should be avoided unless desperation is in the air. Even then, ensure you have a shotgun or (more appropriately) a baseball bat handy. These players will more than happily eat at your fantasy bottom line (while moaning, "STAAAAAAAAAATS!"). Just remember Rule #22, because it applies to fantasy baseball as much as it does the Zombie Apocalypse: "When in doubt, know your way out!"
• This weeks "ZOMBIE!" is Frank Francisco of the Toronto Blue Jays. Francisco saw limited work in the last 7 days (2 G), and the line was not impressive: 1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB. Yet he somehow managed to notch a save and 3 Ks. Of interest to me is the way he helped set the table for Travis Hafner's game-winning grand slam against Cleveland on Thursday (which is where the majority of that dismal line came from): a 1B, a 2B, and a BB. All this was without getting an out, in an attempt to close out a game that Toronto had well in hand. While he didn't directly give up the game-winner, he set the next pitcher up to have negative margin for error. Francisco is having a terrible year overall on top of the bombshell his last outing (5.92 ERA, 10/14 Sv, 1.849 WHIP, .880 OPS, .368 BAbip), so he is not an attractive option at all as your go-to closer.His viability as even a backup-to-the-backup in a deep league is highly questionable in my mind. There are also rumors flying around that the Toronto front office wants to put him back in a setup role, a move they'd made with Francisco earlier this year when he'd struggled in the closing role. This is a bad trend, and the only reason he'll come back into the closing role later this season is because of the futility of Toronto's 'pen. There are still 71.9% of the owners in ESPN's leagues that have faith in having this pitcher on their roster, but I expect that to drop significantly. There are too many better options.

So there you have it, folks. I promise things will refine and look (and likely sound) a lot clearer with the NL closers on Thursday, but the fluff needed to get out of the way.

Questions, comments, suggestions are always welcome in the boxes below, or by hitting me up on my Twitter feed: @JCPronkFan48

The Knurve's American League All-Star Ballot

Shalom Everybody!

Ever since they made the All-Star game "mean something" by having it decide homefield in the World Series, I've had mixed feelings about the game. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the person the San Francisico Giants have to thank the most for winning last year's World Series (not getting there) is not Tim Lincecum, not Cody Ross, not Brian Wilson, not even Brian Wilson's beard, but......Brian McCann?!?!?

McCann's bases clearing double in the All-Star game propelled the NL to victory and gave the Giants homefield where Jonathan Sanchez, Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain were stupendous last year. I should also mention that I'm a huge believer in the Home Run Derby ruining a players swing for the second half, so I never want my fantasy hombres to be in the contest. I will say I'm looking forward to the bombs that are going to be dropped in Arizona.

So it is with this frustration in mind that I give you my American League All-Star starters, but I'll have two names under each position. The first name is who it WILL be and the second name is who it SHOULD/COULD be, just like this game SHOULD/COULD be an exhibition. If I say it "should be", then you know I feel strongly about the 2nd name, but if I say "could be" then you know a case could be made.

Catcher
It will be: Victor Martinez
He qualifies there, so it will be him. This one's all in the name for Victor. He is not the best catcher on his team (hint, hint...) but he's hitting solidly over .320 and is producing runs at a pretty solid clip. His production is a big reason the Detroit Tigers are in good shape to take a very winnable division.

It should be: Alex Avila
Now Avila is the best catcher on the Tigers and he's having a breakout year. I passed on the chance to pick him up in one of my leagues in favor of Wilson Ramos, and that's been my biggest regret so far this fantasy season. He's showing great flashses of power, has 10-steal potential, and is an even bigger reason than Martinez, and maybe even Miguel Cabrera, that the Tigers are where they are. Avila is the MVP of the Tigers this season because without his production, this team would be as average as every other team in the AL Central seems.

First Base
It will be: Adrian Gonzalez
This one is pretty straighforward. Gonzalez has been the most complete hitter in the AL and it's not even close. He's scoring runs, hitting for power, hitting for average, driving runs in at a ridiculous clip, and has carried the Red Sox, at times. People forget that he started somewhat slow, hitting a paltry .314 in April. What? David? That's not paltry!!! It is when you consider he hit .341 in May and .404 in June with 15 dingers in those two months. The man is a stud.

It should be: Paul Konerko
This is not a knock on Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Mark Teixeira at all, but Konerko has done everything but steal bases for the White Sox when the rest of their offense has been as useless as bacon to someone who keeps kosher. Like V-Mart, it's refreshing to see Konerko put these past two seasons together and bounce back to the stud he was when the White Sox won it all last decade. Think about the White Sox offensive potential in Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham. When you consider none of those guys have been hitting and it's been Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin keeping this underperforming team in the race. Many players can fold under that pressure, but Konerko has excelled.

Second Base
It will be: Robinson Cano
I don't have many qualms with this. I have really enjoyed watching Cano's career blossom in the way that it has. He hit .342 in his second full year in the bigs with just 15 homers. He has evolved his game to hit for power and not feel like he has to pull everything, which I think is rare for a young player who is entering his prime. I also like the fact that Cano was a homegrown Yankee. The fact that he came from their farm system is refreshing. He's hovered around .300 the whole season despite not being the most patient hitter, but he makes it work. This is a pretty clear choice.

It could be: Ian Kinsler
I only say this because Kinsler is Jewish. Just kidding. Seriously though, when Kinsler is healthy, he gives such an unbelievable boost to the Texas Rangers. His batting average is down a little bit this year, but with double digit homers and steals, already. His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career mark, so I can see him having a big second half if he's healthy. His run production is also down, but there's only so much he can do since he's been leading off five out of every six games.

Shortstop
It will be: Asdrubal Cabrera
He's been the rock of the overperforming Indians offense. He's been hitting for power, stealing bases and simply doing it all for the Cleveland Indians. I don't think there's much of an argument here. Jeter's days as an All-Star are done. Who better to fill his shoes than a player as similar to him as Cabrera. Cabrera has a touch more power than Jeter did but he's also a stud defensively, which us fantasy players have to take into account, as boring as that may be.

It could be: Jhonny Peralta
There are a lot of options here, including J. J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus, but I think Peralta has been a critical performer for the Tigers. He's on pace for around 25 HR/95 RBI and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. If you told the Tigers at the beginning of the season these would be Peralta's halfway stats, then they'd have given you a hot dog. Chubby Jhonny Peralta could be eating tons of hot dogs in Arizona.

Third Base
It will be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any argument here? He is head and shoulders better than any other third baseman in the AL. This is the weakest position, by far, in fantasy and the majors this year, so what's to argue with here? I chronicled in one of my "Knurve to Say" articles that Bautista was having a brutal June, but his April and May will put him in the All-Star game. He's on pace for 10 steals, he takes walks, scores runs, he does it all. I boldly predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to get the Wildcard, and I truly believe this team has it all. Bautista is the anchor.

It should be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any arguing here? Sure Alex Rodriguez has a case, but I can't see any possible scenario where America would feel A-Rod gets the nod over Bautista, who is finally getting the recognition for what he's been doing.

Outfield
It will be: Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki
I'll start with the two locks: Granderson and Ellsbury. Is there even any question? These two guys are studs who you got for pretty cheap on draft day compared to the levels they have performed. AL Outfield is so weak this season that these two are shoo-ins. The pragmatist in me wants to be realistic and say Ichiro's going to get the votes to become an All-Star because he always does. He is starting to pick it back up, so it's not a completely lame assertion. B. J. Upton has hit 11 more dingers with the same number of steals and significantly worse batting average, so it might be six of one half a dozen of the other.

It should be: Granderson, Ellsbury and Upton
As for Upton, people want to rip on his batting average, and that's pretty easy because it's THAT terrible, but if you look at his counting stats, he's on pace for another 25 HR/45 SB season, which makes the batting average much easier to swallow. Considering the other possible names for this list are Alex Gordon and Brennan Boesch, I think we can be confident in this tandem.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Justin Verlander
I think Verlander is well-liked enough across the country that he has to be the favorite here. As much as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will garner a ton of votes, I'd hope baseball fans can appreciate Verlander's dominance this season. With this being another "Year of the Pitcher", it's not easy to pick this spot, but Verlander leads the majors in K's, WHIP, and Wins. His ERA is a full run higher than Weaver's, but the defense behind Verlander is 24th in the majors in Fielding Percentage whereas the Angels are 4th in the AL (8th in the majors).

It could be: Jered Weaver
There's certainly a great case to be made for Weaver. His April was Zack Greinke-esque (circa 2009) and he has established himself as a dominant starter in the AL. Along with Verlander, he's proven himself durable and reliable. Aside from one slight hiccup against the Indians, he's been as good as they come. When you're 6'7", throwing downhill is much better, especially when you're able to locate your off-speed stuff as well as he has.

So there it is... thoughts? Tweet me @TheKnurve. I'd love some feedback!
-David Kaplan

The Knurve To Say: June 27th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...Jhoulys Chacin will be a top 3 starting pitcher by the end of 2012.
     I know this is relatively bold, but I’m a huge believer in this guy. He’s seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL, but I still get the feeling he’s underappreciated and it’s got me wondering.
     His K/9 is slightly down from last year but so is his BB/9. I have chronicled on my blog how much of a premium elite starting pitching he has become. The increasing depth of starting pitching is going to force us to look for that extra something at a good value. I think even next year, Chacin will be available for a good price because of his relative obscurity.
     But why do I believe he’s going to turn into an elite starting pitcher? For starters, the dude’s only 23 and he’s already doing solid work. His minor league numbers indicate he has the ability for fabulous control. That being said, I think this is his adjustment year. The slight dip in K/9 doesn’t worry me at all because it has been accompanied by a lower BB/9 and an above average HR/FB rate. The higher Home Run rate is to be expected in Coors, but there’s typically a correlation between walk rates and HR/FB rates. Chacin’s track record implies those rates will regress to a mean, and I expect his K rates to spike.
     Chacin is well aware that he is most successful when he keeps the ball down. His high ground ball rates and career BABIP of .255 implies that he has the ability to show phenomenal control. If you are scared of Chacin’s high strand rate, don’t be. His ability to keep the ball down means fewer RBI’s and Home Runs alongside more double-plays.
     My recommendation: If you’re in a keeper league, try to go get him. If you’re at the bottom of your league, offer up an older starter or sell high on somebody. If you can get Chacin for Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Alexi Ogando, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez are just a few of the guys having good years that I’d trade for Chacin in a heartbeat.

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I was a loser and stayed home to watch the White Sox-Nats game on Friday night. The ejection of temporary manager John McLaren was awesome, but I want to talk about Henry Rodriguez for a second. Chances are you've never heard of Rodriguez, but I’m going to say with utter confidence that he has the nastiest stuff in the Majors. I was absolutely shocked at what this guy was doing. He’s hitting 100 with his fastball and has a slider/sinker that is the most absurd thing I have ever seen in my entire life. There are no great videos showing his whole arsenal. But check out the location and speed of these fastballs when he was on the Athletics: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11390201 And check out the pure filth of this wild pitch earlier this year: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14609955. It’s no wonder he has an absurdly low ERA and high WHIP.
• Speaking of McLaren's ejection, I was pissed after they overruled that call, for one reason, and one reason only. Armando Galarraga. Where was the home plate umpire when Jim Joyce clearly blew the call that cost him a perfect game? There’s no excuse for overruling that call Friday night. Sure, it was a bang-bang play, but to the wimpy rookie umpire, don’t poop your pants whenever someone questions you. Joe Torre needs to talk to his umpires about what can get overruled and what can’t. That was absolutely terrible.
• I’m convinced the Diamondbacks are going to win the NL West going away. This team was one year away after their atrocious season last year, and now that they improved the bullpen and their young offense is a year older. Their starting pitching has been a performing a little over their heads (See: Joshua Collmenter and Ian Kennedy) but they have the highest offensive potential in that division and it’s not even close. Speaking of them, in case you haven’t seen Wily Mo Pena’s shtoinker Friday night… you’re welcome: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16233223
• I used to think the Kardashian’s were the dumbest, most annoying people ever. Then Jim Riggleman decided to stop managing the Nationals.
• The report that came out where Logan Morrison told new manager Jack McKeon that he was going to go home and play with his Twitter and McKeon asked what kind of dog it was, made me laugh for about 20 minutes.
• Given the power of the AL East, I am ready to declare Josh Beckett and James Shields two of the best pitchers in baseball. But if I own them I’m selling high. The fact of the matter is these guys are not, nor have they ever been, THIS good. If you own one of these guys, I’m milking them for all their worth. Mark my words on this one, starting pitching is so deep, shore up a hole in your roster by getting rid of these guys. I think these guys will be good for the rest of the season, but I think both of their value has peaked right now. Three straight complete games!?! Are you kidding me?
• I’m going to say this now, and I will probably elaborate on this in my article next week, but Joe Mauer’s contract may go down as one of the biggest busts in baseball history.

The Mike Stanton Mancrush-Meter was a 6 last week. I’m sad to say it’s down to a 5 this week. He sat the first few games of last week with an eye infection and then came back and had two straight 3 hit games on Wednesday and Thursday before he had a golden sombrero Friday night, striking out all four times he came to the plate. With no mammoth, testosterone-inducing bombs to the crowded Sun Life Stadium outfield bleachers this week, I sure hope he hits one this week.

Joke of the week: Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average in June is 10 points higher than Shaq’s free throw percentage in the entire 2006-2007 season with the Heat. I can’t tell which is funnier; how good Gonzalez is or how bad Shaq was.

Have a great week, fellow Americans.
@TheKnurve

KNURVE'S NOTE: I swear on my future children's ugliness that I didn't read Matthew Berry's column from last week before I touted Chacin and selling high on Beckett and Shields.