Showing posts with label COL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COL. Show all posts

Friday, August 5, 2011

Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition: August 5th, 2011

Welcome back! Apologies for the lateness of the article... Things outside of COSFBA have been a little hectic lately and I've been somewhat under the weather myself (damn heat wave). I'll endeavor to keep things as close to normal as possible here, though likely shorter.

There's been very little movement Waiver Wire-wise with the back end of the 'pens since the first of the month. The Mike Adams trade was the biggest one and it did shake up the Padres' bullpen.  However, who knows what the next few weeks will hold.

Let's have a review of last week's names:
  • Brian Wilson only appeared in two games over the last week, due to blow-outs both by and against the Giants. He picked up a save and a loss in 1.1 innings, giving up a run on three hits while walking one and striking out two. Friday's game was the first game he allowed a run since before the All-Star Break, so we shouldn't read anything more into it than a closer having an off night.
  • Adams was shuttled off from the San Diego Padres to the Texas Rangers. While it's hard to judge a trade this early, especially across leagues, here's the splits: in his last appearance with the Padres, he pitched an inning allowing a hit and a strikeout. He got the hold in that game. In his first appearance with the Rangers, he pitched an inning allowing a run and two hits, getting a punchout and allowing a walk. Like with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, it's going to be hard to see immediate impact when coming from the opposite league. Once he has time to adjust (3-to-4 weeks, in my opinion), he should be back to near-dominance.
  • Antonio Bastardo wound up in four games in the last week, winning two and picking up two holds. He only gave up a run on three hits in 3.1 innings, fanning four. He did allow a longball in last night's 8-6 win over Colorado, but such a thing is a rarity this season (he's only allowed three on the season). His and Ryan Madson's work are pivotal to keep Philly atop the NL East.
  • Henry Rodriguez worked in a little longer relief last week, logging 4.1 innings in two games. He gave up a run on a hit, walking one and striking out five. There haven't been any clear or consistent signs of his performances improving; flashes here and there. There might be continued hope for him, but right now all signs point to not much improvement.
 Now, let's get some names out there for this week:
  • "Doing Work" - J.J. Putz (ARI): J.J. has been having a solid season as the D-Backs closer, helping keep them within a game of the Division-leading (and World Champion) Giants. His last week reads dominantly: 2.2 innings pitched in three appearances, zero runs on three hits with a walk. He grabbed three saves, running his season total to 25. He is coming off the DL after to a right elbow injury, and isn't showing any ill-effects aside from a slight drop in fastball velocity (1 MPH) which right now could be contributed to 'rust'. The D-Backs had no problems throwing him in three straight games, but will likely rest him for a bit and let Arizona's solid set-up man David Hernandez close as needed. Expect that trend to continue for likely the next month as Putz works his arm (and elbow) back to shape and normal routine. J.J. will still be good for late innings, and will be relied upon for the high-leverage situations as the hunt for the Playoffs builds to a climax.
  • "Unsung Hero" - Heath Bell (SD): While the Padres are pretty well out of the hunt for the Playoffs this year, you wouldn't know it looking at Heath. 30+ saves with a sub-2.50 ERA, hitters batting .210 against him. Last week's line reads brilliantly as well: three games, three innings, no runs, one hit, three punchouts. Most of this with the trade winds swirling around him and Mike Adams (who was the eventual 'odd man out'), and in the midst of a relatively dreadful San Diego season. The Padres have been playing a little better lately than their record indicates, and Buddy Black is not a manager to "mail-in" a season, so expect Heath to get plenty of work in for the rest of the year. He'll make it all count, even though it may be way too late to bail out the leaky boat of the '11 San Diego Padres season.
  • "Heart-Attack Award" - Jason Isringhausen (NYM): Izzy got roughed up over his last week. He appeared in four games, four innings pitched. He allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and saved two games. He's up to 298 saves on his career, and I will stand behind him getting #300 on a Mets uniform (there were some trade winds swirling for him, and some still say he might still move over the Waiver Wire). However, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. New York is still on the outside edge of a Wild-Card spot, and will be playing like it. Izzy's in line to log more innings in a season than he has since his '07 Cardinals campaign, and it's going to wear on his arm pretty good at this point. The Mets seem to be riding Izzy for all he's worth, and I'm looking to see a fade within the next month and a half. Whether they stick it out with Izzy, or use a fresher (and younger) Bobby Parnell for the stretch run, will be decided by the standings.
  • "ZOMBIE!" - Rex Brothers (COL):The Colorado Rockies setup man has been having a first year in the Big Leagues to... well... remember, but probably not for the reasons he'd want to. Up until the last week, he was running along pretty well. But then this happened: four appearances, three innings, six runs, five hits, two walks, six Ks. That equals out to two losses and a blown save. While there's pretty much nothing to go on (3 years of Minors work), Rex is next-in-line for the closer role, apparently by his merits. He's on-pace to pitch more innings than he has in pretty much any level of the Minors. Brothers could either be reduced in workload, or shut down completely because of it. It's extremely difficult to predict future performance on a rookie, so I would have to say that Rex is a "wait til next year" candidate and find your holds elsewhere.
Here's hoping for a return to normal next week!

Monday, July 25, 2011

Waiver Saviors: Digging Deep Edition

As the season grinds along, managing your rosters in competitive leagues becomes increasingly more difficult as everyone is targeting ways to make a run at the league title or finish in the money spots.

Let's look at a group of players with extremely low ownership rates who can help you in very deep mixed leagues or league-only ones. Shallow mixed leagues aren't worth playing in nor worth talking about. Stick to fantasy football. I hear there could be a season or something. Whatever.
  • OF Hideki Matsui, OAK (10.8% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) is hitting .469 (15/32) since the All-Star break with two home runs and 11 RBI. He's the kind of player to own while he's on a hot streak and dump the moment he goes cold.
  • OF Dexter Fowler, COL (21.3% ESPN; 18% Yahoo!) is making the most of his recent call-up from AAA. In 10 games, he's hitting .324 with a .439 OBP, three doubles, three triples, three stolen bases and 10 runs scored. With Carlos Gonzalez on the DL, Fowler should get every opportunity to start in center field and prove he's the player the Rockies and fantasy GM's wish he'd become.
  • OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (14.0% ESPN; 17% Yahoo!) is back as the Cubs everyday center fielder and proving he can still hit after suffering multiple facial fractures. In 19 games since his return, he's hitting .329 (23/70) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and 10 runs scored.
  • 1B/OF Mike Carp, SEA (0.5% ESPN; 1% Yahoo!) has a five-game hitting streak since being recalled from AAA, going 8-for-22 (.364) with two home runs. Expect the Mariners to continue running out their youngsters to see what they're capable of and whether or not they fit in to the team's long-term plans.
  • 2B Mark Ellis, COL (6.7% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) has produced a .325/16/2/11/2 line in 20 games since being traded to the Rockies and should be considered a viable option at second base or middle infielder position.
  • RP Edward Mujica, FLA (3.3% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) has been named closer-in-waiting should the Marlins deal current closer Leo Nunez. If you are desperate for saves, now might be the time to pick up Mujica. You can drop him in all non-holds leagues come early next week if Nunez is still with the team.
  • RP Glen Perkins, MIN (2.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is now the primary setup man for the Twins after Matt Capps recent implosion and Joe Nathan's return to closer. He is a must-own in holds leagues with his 10.01 K/9 ratio.
  • 2B/3B/SS/OF Michael Martinez, PHI (18.1% ESPN; 10% Yahoo!) has filled in quite nicely as the Phillies have dealt with injuries to Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco. In July, he's hitting .296 with two home runs, 15 RBI and three stolen bases. Polanco is due back from the DL this weekend, so keep an eye on his playing time.
  • 3B/SS/OF Willie Bloomquist, ARI (7.3% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) should be the primary beneficiary as the result of Stephen Drew's horrific injury. Bloomquist is hitting .327 with two stolen bases in July. As long as he is hitting and stealing bases, he should keep Cody Ransom on the bench.
  • 2B Brett Lawrie, TOR (1.7% ESPN; 5% Yahoo!) has returned to the lineup in AAA and hitting .367 with a home run and seven RBI in seven July games. Expect him to be called up soon and inserted into third base as the Blue Jays fade from the playoff picture in the AL East. Lawrie should now be owned in all keeper leagues and dynasty formats.
If your league is still very active heading into August, then the action on the waiver wire should remain fiercely competitive. Dig a little deeper into the statistics (last 7 days, last 15 days, etc.) and keep an eye on injuries, playing time, trades and rookie call-ups to find the players who'll benefit the most from these moves and don't be afraid to anticipate the transactions with a bold move of your own.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Line of the Day: July 14th, 2011

Ryan Spilborghs went 4-for-6 with a home run and four RBI filling in for for the injured Carlos Gonzalez as the Colorado Rockies beat the Milwaukee Brewers 12-3. The four hits tied his career high for hits in a game.

Line: 6 AB | 3 R | 4 H | 4 RBI; 2B | HR | SB

My fantasy perspective: Spilborghs has been no more than a spot starter and pinch hitter this season, accumulating just 158 at-bats in 76 games. He's never had more than 352 at-bats in a season, either. Unowned in virtually all league formats, one can't help but wonder what kind of numbers he could put up given a change to play regularly and accumulate 600+ at-bats.

Here's hoping a game like this caught the attention of another MLB team looking for a scrappy outfielder and Spilborghs finds himself in the mix come the Trade Deadline.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

The Knurve's National League All-Star Ballot

Here are my picks for the National League All-Stars. Be sure to check out my American League All-Star picks, too.

Catcher
It will be: Brian McCann
When I reflect on McCann, I love thinking about how he was the afterthought to Jeff Francoeur when they were called up in 2005. To think Franceour would flame out and McCann would turn into, in my opinion, the best catcher in baseball was not expected. That opinion is an article for another time, but with an average over .300 and 14 dingers, he's the anchor for the Braves underperforming offense. This spot is his again, and nobody's going to take it from him.

It could be: Miguel Montero
Filling this spot is like what I imagine parents feel when they're going to have twins: you're really excited about having one, but you realize you have to pay for two of these. Terrible jokes aside, Montero has been pretty solid on a pretty solid Diamondbacks offense this season. Catching has always been a weaker position, but there's a large contingent of average catchers after McCann, and I think Montero is the best of the average. Jon Lucroy, Ramon Hernandez, and Yadier Molina deserve mentions. The other notable in this group gets his own sentence: Chris Ianetta. If this guy could hit even .250 then he'd be almost as valuable as McCann, but Mr. Mendoza's line is hard to stomach.

First Base
It will be: Joey Votto
...and this disappoints me. I think I can make a pretty good case that Votto is not an All-Star, but I am pretty confident he'll get the votes to be a starter. Everybody wants to tout the season he's had, but at the end of the day he's got very little to show for it. His value is in his batting eye and he's fantastic at drawing walks and scoring runs, but he's only on pace for a 20/100 season, and the guy that SHOULD be starting at first base is almost at 20/100 in the first half.

It should be: Prince Fielder
This is a large man making a large case for a large contract. Goodness, this man deserves to start. Who would have thought Fielder could make a better case for a bigger contract than Albert Pujols, but I am starting to believe it was going to happen even before Pujols went down. Fielder is having a spectacular year, on pace for a 40/140 year, which is absurd. I am glad the Brew Crew is having a great year both because Fielder is keepin' it so real and because I think the Brewers will take the NL Pennant.

Second Base
It will be: Rickie Weeks
You really have to give this guy credit. When he's healthy, he's nasty, and he's been a great leadoff hitter at the top of this pungent lineup. His speed numbers are a little down, but he's been a solid contributor overall. And when you have Fielder and that Ryan Braun guy swinging like they're hitting with a tennis racket, it really helps bring Weeks home.

It should be: Danny Espinosa
Yeah, I said should. It's bold, but it's deserved. He's hit more homers, driven in more runs and stolen more bases than Weeks. I'm convinced if Espinosa had Braun and Fielder (hmmm) behind him, he could score more runs. This guy seems to have it all, and if the Nats pony up and spend some bills this winter, he could become a fantasy stud. The batting average might not get much better, but I can see him evolving into a better version of Weeks or Ian Kinsler.

Shortstop
It will be: Jose Reyes
Is there even a question? This guy has done absolutely everything he can to help the Mets. Get this guy on a winning team, please. It's been great to see what he can do when he's healthy, and it's been truly astounding. The Mets basically build Citi Field for Reyes' swing and he seems to have figured it out. He has 15 triples for goodness sakes. His career high in the category is 19. Watching Reyes play baseball is a lot of fun. Whichever team gets him will be making a worthy investment.

It could be: Troy Tulowitzki
Begrudgingly, I need to give Tulo some credit. After a smokin' hot April, he's had a pretty average May and June. But what does Tulo do best? He does work in the second half. If you'd like proof of this, I'd like to direct you towards his 15 HR/40 RBI performance in the second half of last year....IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. On one hand, he's been good, but not great. I think it's well understood he deserves the respect to start because he will turn it in the second half.

Third Base
It will be: Placido Polanco
I look at Polanco like I look at a good dog: he's nice, he does the same thing everyday, he doesn't go wild and he never pees on the carpet. In all seriousness, the Philly Phaithful will propel Polanco to the start in an otherwise weak position. He's reliable, he hits for average, he can score runs and he's great defensively. I'm pretty tired of talking about him, because the only reason he'll be an All-Star is because everybody else at the position is bad or hurt. Speaking of which, I really wonder what it's like to be THAT guy at an All-Star game. Will all the other All-Stars look at Polanco and think, "The only reason he's here is because David Wright is hurt."

It should be: Ryan Roberts
I think I've pretty well hammered home the point that this position is weak, but Roberts has actually been pretty impressive. He's been one of several pleasant surprises for the Diamondbacks. His 10 dingers and 12 steals are both pretty solid. As strange as this may be to say, I think if Wright was healthy Roberts would get more recognition because the media loooooooves to compare players, it gives better drama.

Outfield
It will be: Matt Kemp, Braun and Justin Upton
Just like Granderson and Ellsbury don't need much discussion, Kemp and Braun don't either. I can't tell you how much I want Kemp to go 40/40. I think the Dodgers organization really needs it. And Braun is just mashing. The 'Hebrew Hammer' has been workin' it hard this season. Upton is the only contentious pick here, but when reflecting upon where the game is this season, I think it's pretty clear he will get the nod. Upton has been an RBI machine of late and has great speed and power. To think how young he is makes me extremely excited to see what he is capable of doing.

It could be: Kemp, Braun and about 10 other people
In all seriousness, I think there about 10 names who would not surprise me at all to make it with Kemp and Braun. Make no mistake. These two are a cut above the rest, but not by too much. Would any of you cry foul if (in no particular order) Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jayson Werth, Carlos Beltran, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman made it? It's pretty clear-cut that there are going to be some bigtime snubs at this All-Star game, and the majority of them will be NL outfielders.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Roy Halladay
He's the best pitcher in baseball. Hearing other hitters talk about how good Halladay really is makes you appreciate him that much more. When they say the guy can throw 5 pitches for strikes almost every which way, it's hard to hate on him. I think even Mets fans respect Halladay, and that's saying something. He's doing the same thing every year. He's a Cy Young calibur pitcher. Makes you wonder what an entire career in the NL would have been like for him.

It could be: either of his two teammates
It's amazing to look at the amount of quality starting pitching in the NL, but Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are just a cut above everybody else. Lee had an obnoxious June and Hamels has been absolutely amazing. Pardon this tangent, but Hamels amazes the hell out of me. He has two pitches that he can throw for strikes, his fastball and his changeup, and he has some trouble locating his curveball. But Hamels is a good reminder that if you locate those two pitches, then you don't need that secondary pitch with alternative movement. This is another spot where 10 other guys could make a case, but these two are more dominant and just better.

Tweet me @TheKnurve with any comments, questions or general feedback on my articles.
-David Kaplan

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Playing the Name Game: Who's Who

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" is the third time this season I'll be comparing nameless player's statistics  and hopefully opening your eyes a little bit to how name recognition (and sometimes the lack thereof) can skew the realm of fantasy baseball ownership. This time I'm going to hold back all of the player's names until the end. NOTE: All stats quoted are from games played through June 29th, 2011.

Let's jump right into the game by comparing the statistics (5x5 style) of a pair of outfielders in Scenario A:
  • Player A: .258 BA, 35 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB
  • Player B: .282 BA, 42 R, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB
Player A is owned in 67.5% of ESPN leagues and just 39% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 84% of Yahoo! leagues. Are the 24 points in batting average, seven runs, two RBI and two stolen bases really worth such a discrepancy in ownership numbers? Here's a hint to guessing their names: neither player's home park would be consider hitter-friendly.

Let's take a look at another pair of outfielders producing similar stats in Scenario B:
  • Player A: .262 BA, 51 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 5 SB
  • Player B: .264 BA, 25 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB
Again, pretty similar except for the large discrepancy in runs scored. How could that be explained? What if I told you Player A has had 279 at-bats while Player B has only had 148 at-bats? So, very similar numbers in half the at-bats, except for runs. Player A cost you an ADP of 104.1 while it's safe to say Player B was virtually undrafted. Now let's take a look at ownership numbers. Player A (99.6% E; 86% Y!); Player B (8% E; 5% Y!). Here's a hint to narrow down who they are: both players are on different contending teams in the NL Central.

Enough with outfielder comparisons for the moment. Check out these pair of first basemen in Scenario C:
  • Player A: .173 BA, 20 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB
  • Player B: .217 BA, 17 R, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB
Ugh, why would anyone want to own either of these players with nearly half a season in the books? Fantasy owners got the memo about Player B and have avoided ownership to the tune of 0.4% in ESPN leagues and 1% of Yahoo! leagues. Quite the head-scratcher, though, that Player A is still owned in 83.3% of ESPN leagues and 79% of Yahoo! leagues. Oh right, Player A cost you an ADP of 37.3.

How about a trio of first basemen with similar numbers up for comparison in Scenario D?:
  • Player A: .297 BA, 33 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB
  • Player B: .272 BA, 33 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB
  • Player C: .306 BA, 34 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB
Okay, now we're talking. These three are virtually the same player, right? Wrong. Ownership levels are all over the place. Player A is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 90% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in just 43.3% of ESPN leagues and 30% of Yahoo! leagues and lastly, Player C is 91.9% owned in ESPN leagues and 53% of Yahoo! leagues. Over the last 15 days, Player B has three home runs while the other two combined have none.

Lastly, let's compare a pair of young catchers with a ton of potential but I wonder if that potential is another year away from being realized after looking at Scenario E:
  • Player A: .226 BA, 36 R, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB
  • Player B: .226 BA, 24 R, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB
Again, other than runs scored and a few bonus steals, these catchers are providing nearly the same level of offense to a fantasy team. Both players are 25 years old but the perception of each is quite different. Player A has only played 2/3rds of his games at catcher and the other 1/3rd at first base and owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 95% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B has caught nearly the same amount of games but stuck in a perceived 60/40 split of time with a veteran catcher and owned in 50.9% of ESPN leagues and 52% of Yahoo! leagues.


Enough with the player comparisons already, right? Let's get to revealing the player's names after the break.
**********

Monday, June 27, 2011

The Knurve To Say: June 27th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...Jhoulys Chacin will be a top 3 starting pitcher by the end of 2012.
     I know this is relatively bold, but I’m a huge believer in this guy. He’s seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL, but I still get the feeling he’s underappreciated and it’s got me wondering.
     His K/9 is slightly down from last year but so is his BB/9. I have chronicled on my blog how much of a premium elite starting pitching he has become. The increasing depth of starting pitching is going to force us to look for that extra something at a good value. I think even next year, Chacin will be available for a good price because of his relative obscurity.
     But why do I believe he’s going to turn into an elite starting pitcher? For starters, the dude’s only 23 and he’s already doing solid work. His minor league numbers indicate he has the ability for fabulous control. That being said, I think this is his adjustment year. The slight dip in K/9 doesn’t worry me at all because it has been accompanied by a lower BB/9 and an above average HR/FB rate. The higher Home Run rate is to be expected in Coors, but there’s typically a correlation between walk rates and HR/FB rates. Chacin’s track record implies those rates will regress to a mean, and I expect his K rates to spike.
     Chacin is well aware that he is most successful when he keeps the ball down. His high ground ball rates and career BABIP of .255 implies that he has the ability to show phenomenal control. If you are scared of Chacin’s high strand rate, don’t be. His ability to keep the ball down means fewer RBI’s and Home Runs alongside more double-plays.
     My recommendation: If you’re in a keeper league, try to go get him. If you’re at the bottom of your league, offer up an older starter or sell high on somebody. If you can get Chacin for Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Alexi Ogando, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez are just a few of the guys having good years that I’d trade for Chacin in a heartbeat.

Thoughts from the week that was:
  • I was a loser and stayed home to watch the White Sox-Nats game on Friday night. The ejection of temporary manager John McLaren was awesome, but I want to talk about Henry Rodriguez for a second. Chances are you've never heard of Rodriguez, but I’m going to say with utter confidence that he has the nastiest stuff in the Majors. I was absolutely shocked at what this guy was doing. He’s hitting 100 with his fastball and has a slider/sinker that is the most absurd thing I have ever seen in my entire life. There are no great videos showing his whole arsenal. But check out the location and speed of these fastballs when he was on the Athletics: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11390201 And check out the pure filth of this wild pitch earlier this year: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14609955. It’s no wonder he has an absurdly low ERA and high WHIP.
  • Speaking of McLaren's ejection, I was pissed after they overruled that call, for one reason, and one reason only. Armando Galarraga. Where was the home plate umpire when Jim Joyce clearly blew the call that cost him a perfect game? There’s no excuse for overruling that call Friday night. Sure, it was a bang-bang play, but to the wimpy rookie umpire, don’t poop your pants whenever someone questions you. Joe Torre needs to talk to his umpires about what can get overruled and what can’t. That was absolutely terrible.
  • I’m convinced the Diamondbacks are going to win the NL West going away. This team was one year away after their atrocious season last year, and now that they improved the bullpen and their young offense is a year older. Their starting pitching has been a performing a little over their heads (See: Joshua Collmenter and Ian Kennedy) but they have the highest offensive potential in that division and it’s not even close. Speaking of them, in case you haven’t seen Wily Mo Pena’s shtoinker Friday night… you’re welcome: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16233223
  • I used to think the Kardashian’s were the dumbest, most annoying people ever. Then Jim Riggleman decided to stop managing the Nationals.
  • The report that came out where Logan Morrison told new manager Jack McKeon that he was going to go home and play with his Twitter and McKeon asked what kind of dog it was, made me laugh for about 20 minutes.
  • Given the power of the AL East, I am ready to declare Josh Beckett and James Shields two of the best pitchers in baseball. But if I own them I’m selling high. The fact of the matter is these guys are not, nor have they ever been, THIS good. If you own one of these guys, I’m milking them for all their worth. Mark my words on this one, starting pitching is so deep, shore up a hole in your roster by getting rid of these guys. I think these guys will be good for the rest of the season, but I think both of their value has peaked right now. Three straight complete games!?! Are you kidding me?
  • I’m going to say this now, and I will probably elaborate on this in my article next week, but Joe Mauer’s contract may go down as one of the biggest busts in baseball history.
The Mike Stanton Mancrush-Meter was a 6 last week. I’m sad to say it’s down to a 5 this week. He sat the first few games of last week with an eye infection and then came back and had two straight 3 hit games on Wednesday and Thursday before he had a golden sombrero Friday night, striking out all four times he came to the plate. With no mammoth, testosterone-inducing bombs to the crowded Sun Life Stadium outfield bleachers this week, I sure hope he hits one this week.

Joke of the week: Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average in June is 10 points higher than Shaq’s free throw percentage in the entire 2006-2007 season with the Heat. I can’t tell which is funnier; how good Gonzalez is or how bad Shaq was.

Have a great week, fellow Americans.
@TheKnurve

KNURVE'S NOTE: I swear on my future children's ugliness that I didn't read Matthew Berry's column from last week before I touted Chacin and selling high on Beckett and Shields.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Line of the Day: June 21st, 2011

Seth Smith homered twice and drove in three runs to lead the Colorado Rockies to a 4-3 victory over the Cleveland Indians. His second home run of the game came in the top of the ninth inning against the Indians' closer Chris Perez and broke a 3-3 tie. It was the fourth multi-homer game of Smith's career.

Line: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2 HR

My fantasy perspective: Somehow Smith has gotten the reputation as a platoon player in fantasy baseball circles. He's on pace to play in 135 games and get 464 at-bats. At that pace, he's looking at a 5x5 line of .316/80/18/71/7 this season. Those fantasy numbers deserve to be owned in more than 47.1% of ESPN leagues and certainly more than just 29% of Yahoo! leagues.

His splits warrant him sitting against LHPs (8/38, .211 BA, 0 HR) but get this guy in your lineup against RHPs (58/171, .339, 8 HR). Why not create a righty/lefty platoon within your own team? For example purposes, Michael Cuddyer is hitting .388 (26/67, 6 HR) against LHPs and just .240 (44/183) against RHP yet owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

My advice is to pick up Smith if he's still available on waivers in your league and look to create an internal platoon with your own outfielders. This strategy really only works if you're in a daily league though.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Line of the Day: June 10th, 2011

SP Jhoulys Chacin of the Colorado Rockies allowed just three hits while striking out nine over eight shutout innings as the Rockies held on for a 6-5 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The win was his seventh and is tops on the Rockies' pitching staff.

Line: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K; W, QS

My fantasy perspective: Chacin was a much-hyped sleeper pick coming into the season but who knew he'd become the ace of a Rockies' staff that had such proven winners as Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa. Who knew he'd be leading the team in starts (13), innings pitched (87), wins (7), ERA (2.90) and strikeouts (74).

A few causes for concern going forward with Chacin would be an extremely low BAA (.197) and BABIP (.226), both likely a result of an extremely high GB% of 60.5%. Keep an eye on him as the temperature starts rising, humidity levels drop and balls start flying out of Coors Field.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Playing the Name Game

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" takes another look at player comparisons without knowing their names. Name recognition tends to sway our interpretation of a player's overall fantasy value. This exercise in player evaluating will help you find some waiver wire gems who are being overlooked by others in your leagues.

I'll run through a few of these comparisons (using standard 5x5 categories) for your fantasy baseball viewing pleasure and hopefully give you something to mull over as you assess your roster(s). NOTE: All statistics quoted are for games played through June 8th, 2011 and ownership numbers are from ESPN leagues.
  • Player A: .310 BA (57/184), 29 R, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 2 SB
  • Player B: .316 BA (55/174), 25 R, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB
Okay, not much difference here when you compare simple 5x5 lines. Too be fair, both players qualify at the same position. A deeper look into their numbers show Player A has 20 XBH and Player B has 22 XBH. Player B has walked 20 times while Player A has 19 walks. Hmmmm. Player A has a .890 OPS compared to Player B's .918 OPS. Still looking like pretty even players across the board. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .345 BABIP, a .389 wOBA and a wRC+ of 145 while Player B has a .324 BABIP, a .396 wOBA and a wRC+ of 143. These guys are virtually twins of the baseball diamond. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Mitch Moreland and Player B is Todd Helton.

My fantasy perspective: Are you ready to know the stark difference between these two players? Moreland is 100% owned compared to Helton's 51% ownership rate. Moreland is looked upon as a young player on an offensively potent team with tons of potential while Helton is viewed as a player with injury concerns on the downside of his player career. The numbers tell us different.
  • Player A: .293 BA (63/215), 34 R, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 9 SB
  • Player B: .265 BA (58/219), 39 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 5 SB
Again, to be fair for comparison reasons, these two players both qualify at the same position. Player A has a significant advantage in batting average and nearly twice the stolen bases than Player B while the other three scoring categories can be considered a wash to this point in the season. Each player has 21 XBH but Player B has a significant 34 to 10 advantage in walks over Player A. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .341 BABIP, a .335 wOBA and a wRC+ of 111 while Player B has a .317 BABIP, a .357 wOBA and a wRC+ of 127. Not a ton of difference here and I can see making a case to own either of these players. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Corey Patterson and Player B is Colby Rasmus.

My fantasy perspective: When I hear Patterson's name, I think of a player who hasn't had much of a career since 2008. But a deeper look into his Baseball-Refernce.com player page shows a 2004 season where he went 24/32 (HR/SB) and a 2006 season of 16/45. I'm not suggesting he's going to put up numbers like those in 2011 at 31 years of age but he has proven the ability to produce at the major league level. Rasmus is a 24 year old fantasy stud with many great seasons ahead of him and who deserves his 100% ownership rate but why is Patterson only owned in 69.2% of leagues?

This simple exercise of looking at the scoring category numbers that matter in your league and searching the waiver wires for the players who can fill those needs will make your team better. The hard part is knowing when to cut ties with the players with obvious name recognition for the players possibly available on waivers who can help your team win. And knowing is half the battle.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Waiver Saviors: Small Sample Size

When looking for players available on your league's waiver wire, what sorting options do you prefer to use? Last seven days? Fourteen or fifteen days (depending on your league)? Thirty days? Or do you like to like at the entire year-to-date statistics to weigh a player's value?

I'm a fan of the "last 15 days" option ESPN offers when looking for available free agents. Fifteen days seems like a nice length of time to judge if a player is worthy of a free agent pickup.

This edition of Waiver Saviors will look for players owned in approximately 50% or less of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues and having a significant statistical impact over the last fifteen days (May 18th - June 1st).
  • 2B Danny Espinosa, WAS (37.2% ESPN; 28% Yahoo! owned) has five home runs and 11 RBI with an acceptable .273 (12/44) batting average.
  • 2B/OF Allen Craig, STL (9.7% E; 14% Y!) is hitting .419 (18/43) with three home runs, 11 RBI and qualifies as at 2B in Yahoo! leagues. He should see increased playing time with Matt Holliday hitting the DL.
  • 1B Freddie Freeman, ATL (24.3% E; 22% Y!) has turned things around of late. He's batting .385 (20/52) with one home run, five RBI and two stolen bases with seven multi-hit games over the last two weeks. He could be a valuable long-term solution as a CI or IF in deeper mixed leagues.
  • OF Jon Jay, STL (43.7% E; 13% Y!) will also benefit from the Holliday injury. He's making the most of his opportunities by hitting .373 (22/59) with four stolen bases.
  • RP Mark Melancon, HOU (64% E; 43% Y!) is settling in to the closers role after a bumpy start. He has three saves and a win since his last blown save with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over a span of 6.2 innings pitched.
  • SP Kevin Correia, PIT (42.6% E; 41% Y!) has three wins (all quality starts) over his last 20 innings pitched with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also leads the majors with eight wins.
  • 1B/2B/3B/OF Ty Wigginton (11.1% E; 14% Y!) has a nine game hitting streak and is hitting .333 (14/42) with three home runs (eight extra-base hits), five RBI and 10 runs scored. His position eligibility may vary in leagues but any roster can benefit from a player with that much flexibility.
  • OF Angel Pagan, NYM (59.8% E; 39% Y!) has ten hits, five runs and two stolen bases in six games since returning to action from the DL with an oblique injury. Maybe 2010 wasn't a fluke.
  • OF Corey Patterson, TOR (38.3% E; 31% Y!) is has 21 hits (.318 BA) for 33 total bases and regular playing time. Ignore his name and chase the stats he's putting up and find a spot on your roster for him.
  • OF Laynce Nix, WAS (22.1% E; 11% Y!) has four home runs, seven RBI and five runs scored while playing nearly exclusively against right-handed pitchers. His .289 average (11/38) and 1.025 OPS are worthy of an outfield platoon on your fantasy team, as well.
  • OF Josh Willingham, OAK (27.2% E; 25% Y!) is only hitting .250 (11/44) but has four home runs (seven extra-base hits), 12 RBI, five runs, six walks and even a stolen base.
  • 1B/OF Juan Rivera, TOR (5.0% E; 6% Y!) is hitting .305 (18/59) with two home runs, eight RBI and seven runs while collecting a hit in 12 of 14 games.
I know there are tons of "waiver" articles out there but I hope when reading through the Waiver Saviors series you're able to actually go to your league and find the majority of these players available and beneficial to your team's overall success. Drop me a line if you pick some of these players up and let me know how I did. Anyone can recommend a player. I want you to know that I follow my own advice. I pick up a good bit of these players if they are available in any of my five leagues. Just putting my money where my mouth is.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Line of the Day: June 1st, 2011

SP Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies pitched a four-hit shutout for his first win of the season in a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. He struck out seven and walked none. It was his eighth career complete game and third career shutout.

Line: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K; W, QS, CG, SHO

My fantasy perspective: April and May were not kind to Jimenez, going a combined 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in nine starts. Add in a 45/30 K/BB ratio in 50.2 innings pitched and the start of his season has been down-right forgettable to fantasy owners.

If this start was a preview of things to come, Jimenez owners could be in line for the fantasy numbers he produced in the first half of 2010 (15-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). The opportunity to acquire him cheaply in a trade probably slammed shut last night, but now may be the time to approach an owner simply looking for a change.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Line of the Day: May 28th, 2011

Chris Iannetta of the Colorado Rockies homered twice and drove in six runs in the Rockies' 15-4 rout of the St. Louis Cardinals. It was Iannetta's first career multi-homer game and the six RBI were a single-game high for him, as well.

Line: 5 AB, 2 R, 4 H, 6 RBI; 2 HR

My fantasy perspective: Iannetta's four hits helped raise his season's batting average to just .242 but the two home runs gave him seven for the season and puts him on pace for 22 this year. His seven home runs are tied for third-most among all catchers. Over the last 30 days he's appeared in 23 games and is hitting .291 (23/79) with five home runs and 15 RBI.

Fantasy owners want Iannetta to be better but his ownership numbers prove they have no faith what they are seeing is for real. Owned in just 14.4% of ESPN and 23% of Yahoo! leagues, Iannetta deserves a long look if your team is reeling from the loss of Buster Posey.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Waiver Saviors: Who's Hot and Available

This edition of Waiver Saviors is not a celebrity gossip edition. There will be no Kardashians mentioned unless one of them is dating Matt Kemp. Today's post will be focusing on those players owned in approximately 50% or less of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues AND having a significant statistical impact over the last 15 days (through May 24th).

Here's the latest batch of waiver wire targets you need to be aware of at this point in the season:
  • OF Jon Jay, STL (13/8% ESPN; 5% Yahoo! owned) is hitting .392 (20/51) with nine RBI and three stolen bases while filling in across an outfield dealing with injuries. If your team needs offense, Jay is worth the look while he's hot and making the most of his opportunities.
  • OF Laynce Nix, WAS (21.9% E; 8% Y!) is hitting .362 (17/47) with three home runs, nine RBI and a stolen base as the Nationals' regular left fielder. He's projecting to hit 20 HR this season, which isn't much of a stretch for a player averaging 17 HR per 162 games over his career.
  • 1B/2B/3B Adam Kennedy, SEA (2.5% E; 4% Y!) is hitting .297 (11/37) with two home runs and two stolen bases and can be a short term fix to a fantasy roster dealing with injuries. As second basemen go, Kennedy is ranked higher than Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill and Gordon Beckham.
  • OF Raul Ibanez, PHI (47.6% E; 33% Y!) is hitting .326 (15/46) with two home runs, six RBI and 10 runs scored and has raised his average from a season-low .154 on May 1st to a season-high .252 today.
  • 1B/OF Brad Hawpe, SD (5.8% E; 5% Y!) is hitting .318 (14/44) with two home runs, six RBI and 10 runs scored and could be a nice addition to your team in deep leagues utilizing extra roster positions such as CI, IF, UTL and DH or NL-only leagues.
  • C Jonathan Lucroy, MIL (29.4% E; 26% Y!) is hitting .390 (16/41) with four home runs, 15 RBI and a 1.188 OPS and deserves to be owned in all formats. He's climbed the charts to become the 5th-ranked catcher on ESPN in just 32 games played.
  • OF Seth Smith, COL (46.7% E; 29% Y!) is hitting .372 (16/43) with three home runs, nine RBI and two stolen bases while settling in as the Rockies' everyday right fielder. He may sit against some of the tougher lefties (.327 vs RHP; .214 vs LHP), but I think the concerns over him being a platoon should be put to rest.
  • 1B Juan Miranda, ARI (0.5% E; 1% Y!) is hitting .375 (9/24) with one home run and five RBI and the reason the Diamondbacks recently released Russell Branyan. He's currently dealing with a hand/wrist injury but seems to be in Arizona's long term plans at first base.
  • 1B/OF Michael Morse, WAS (2.3% E; 10% Y!) is hitting .407 (11/27) with two home runs and five RBI and will get an extended look at first base while Adam LaRoche in on the disabled list. He's now showing signs of being the player who hit nine homers  this past Spring and highly touted as a sleeper.
  • 2B/3B Justin Turner, NYM (46% E; 17% Y!) is hitting .326 (15/46) with one home run and 12 RBI while seeing time at second base and third base for the injured David Wright. Check your league settings to see which position(s) he qualifies at because his value increases with dual eligibility.
Being extremely proactive in your daily leagues is the easiest way to stay ahead of lazy owners. We are nearly 1/3 of the way into the season and soon, if not already, it will be time to cut ties with under-performing players and take a chances on others that can help your team make up points in the standings. Head-to-head leaguers should be ready to treat each week separately and play as aggressively as possible to win.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from May 24th, 2011

Here are some fantasy baseball tidbits I picked up from games played on May 24th, 2011:
  • SP Jorge de la Rosa, COL has a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow and will require Tommy John surgery. He'll be out for at least a full calendar year. This is a devastating blow to the Rockies and will be hard for fantasy owners to find a decent enough replacement for the numbers de la Rosa was able to put up.
  • SP Josh Collmenter, ARI had extended his scoreless streak to 24 innings before allowing home runs to Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith in the fourth inning of the Diamondbacks game against the Rockies. He's now 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.66 WHIP and available in 85% of ESPN and 84% of Yahoo! leagues .
  • CL J.J. Putz, ARI is now 13-for-13 in save opportunities with a 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a 19/5 K/BB ratio in 20 innings pitched. His 13 Saves are tied for fourth best in the majors.
  • OF Carlos Gonzalez, COL homered twice (8) and drove in four runs (31) in the opening game of the Rockies' double-header. It was the third multi-homer game of his career.
  • 2B/3B/OF Ryan Roberts, ARI stole his seventh base. He now has seven home runs and seven stolen bases on the season and is on pace for a 24/24 season. Who saw THAT coming?
  • RP Rafael Soriano, NYY was shut down indefinitely with right elbow inflammation and can safely be dropped in all leagues where he was being rostered for Holds. Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson will continue to pick up the bulk of Holds in the Yankees' pen. 
  • 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR went 0-for-4 against CC Sabathia and is now 0-for-15 in his career versus the lefty. Watch for that matchup the next time these two are scheduled to meet up.
  • RP Al Alburquerque, DET earned his first major league victory. There's nothing fantasy-relevant about him (yet) except in leagues that may use K/9 as a scoring category, where he's sporting a robust 15.3 K/9 ratio. Plus that's just a great baseball name to type.
  • OF Matt Joyce, TB hit his eighth home run of the season and leads the majors with a .367 batting average. He's now the 10th-ranked player on ESPN's Player Rater and the 14th-ranked player in Yahoo! leagues. Players like him are why we play fantasy baseball.
  • C Alex Avila, DET homered twice and now has a 5x5 line of .292/17/8/27/2 for the season, good enough for the 2nd-best fantasy baseball catcher in 2011.
  • SP Josh Beckett, BOS allowed one run and five hits in 6 2-3 innings and lowered his ERA to an AL-low 1.69. He's now 4-1 and looking like the ace of the Red Sox staff again.
  • 1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS leads the majors with 42 RBI and is unbelievable 13-for-25 (.525) with two outs and a runner in scoring position. "Pay that man his money."
  • DH David Ortiz, BOS is batting .341 with seven homers and nine RBI in his last 20 games. Keep an eye on the Red Sox schedule for upcoming interleague games in NL parks.
  • C Carlos Santana, CLE is in an 0-for-19 slump and hitting just .203 this season. He's made up for the low average with six home runs, 21 RBI and 21 runs scored.
  • 2B Brian Roberts, BAL is seeing a specialist to deal with concussion symptoms and is expected to be out for at least three more weeks.
  • OF Raul Ibanez, PHI is hitting .375 with 11 extra-base hits and 11 RBIs in 20 games since May 3rd. He's only owned in 47.6% of ESPN and 32% of Yahoo! leagues.
  • OF Carlos Quentin, CHW became the fifth player over the last 13 days to homer three times in a game. It was the first three-homer game of his career and gave him 12 home runs and 31 RBI for the season.
  • 1B/DH Adam Dunn, CHW ended a 3-for-33 slump with his fifth home run of the year. He's still batting just .192. If only he could hit his reported weight (285).
  • SP Nick Blackburn, MIN pitched a complete game and ended the month of May with a 3-0 record with a 1.72 ERA in five starts.
  • OF David DeJesus, OAK hit two home runs in a game for the second time in his career. Both have come this month. Oddly, those are his only four home runs for the year.
  • RP Eduardo Sanchez, STL worked a perfect inning for his 5th save in seven chances. The Cardinals' bullpen continues to be a mystery. Five separate relievers have recorded a save for them this season (Fernando Salas , Sanchez, Mitchell Boggs, Trever Miller, Ryan Franklin).
  • OF Mike Stanton, FLA hit his 11th home run for the season. He now has 33 home runs in 143 career games and is on pace for 39 this year. By the way, he's just 21 years old.
  • CL Leo Nunez, FLA recorded his major league-leading 18th save (in 18 chances) and has a 24/9 K/BB ratio and a 8.9 K/9 ratio over 24.1 innings pitched.
  • C Buster Posey, SF extended his current hitting streak to 12 games and has raised his average from .241 to .287. We knew there'd be some growing pains in his sophomore season, so hopefully this is a sign of good things to continue to come.
How useful are these post-game notes and tidbits to fantasy owners? Would you like to see them appear more often on COSFBA as a daily game roundup feature? Please let me know. Feedback is always appreciated.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Line of the Day: May 19th, 2011

1B Jason Giambi of the Colorado Rockies homered three times in a game for the first time in his career and drove in all seven runs in the Rockies 7-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was his 39th career multi-homer game and the seven RBI tied a career high.

Line: 5 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 7 RBI; 3 HR

My fantasy perspective: Giambi was 3-for-26 (.115) before this game in a very limited role, so he hasn't been fantasy relevant. The Rockies will have some interleague games where Giambi will get to DH or a spot start at first base now and again but really doesn't deserve to be rostered unless Todd Helton goes down with an injury.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards here.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Waiver Saviors: May 19th, 2011

Waiver Saviors is a regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact in fantasy baseball and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process. This advice applies best to very deep, mixed leagues and shallow league-only leagues. I'm not sure why people still insist on playing in shallow mixed leagues where EVERYONE is available on waivers.

Here's the latest batch of Waiver Saviors who may be worth owning if your roster continually has been decimated by injuries or you're finally ready to move on from an under-performing draft selection:
  • OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (32.6% ESPN; 29% Yahoo! owned) is currently tied for sixth in hits (51) in the MLB, is hitting .307 and has scored 22 runs. Those are some positives. On the flip side, he only has two home runs and nine RBI, a 2.9 BB% and an inflated BABIP of .374. The Cubs will continue to run him out there everyday and slot him in the three hole in the lineup and there is value in that if you need a temporary fill-in for an injured player. And it also helps that he's hitting .340 over his last 15 games and both of his homers have come during that span.
  • OF Jonny Gomes, CIN (17.2% E; 23% Y!) is only hitting .183 and officially lost his starting left field job, so why would there be any value in acquiring him? One word; interleague. The Reds are going to use him at DH in upcoming interleague games hoping to utilize his bat. This could be the wake up call his season needs. Now if he could just cut down his 31.7 K% and have a few balls drop into play (.195 BABIP).
  • OF Seth Smith, COL (25.8% E; 15% Y!) has started 31 of the Rockies 41 games and made it into a total of 35, producing 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23 Runs and 3 SB. At his current pace, he'd produce a full season line of .286/91/16/71/12. In 2010, only 28 players accomplished a 16 HR/12 SB or better season. His splits (.301 BA vs RHP; .167 BA vs LHP) prove he'll be stuck in a platoon and should be utilized as such on your fantasy team, as well.
  • 1B Todd Helton, COL (68.3% E; 37% Y!) looks healthy and could add value to your team in several categories from a CI, IF or UTL/DH slot in deep, mixed leagues or shallow NL-only ones (8th-ranked NL first baseman). Is a 20+ HR/75+ RBI/.315+ BA season that much of a stretch for him? He's outperforming guys like Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn and Billy Bulter at this point and deserves a look.
  • OF Corey Patterson, TOR (14.1% E; 7% Y!) is currently the Blue Jays starting left fielder and batting at the top of an offensively-potent lineup. In his last 14 straight starts, he's batting .295 (18/61) with six doubles, two triples, nine RBI, 11 runs scored and three stolen bases. Get past the name and look at the statistics and you'll see a player with plenty of fantasy value while getting the opportunity to play.
  • 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (43.4% E; 39% Y!) has returned to the lineup from a shoulder injury and tearing it up. In six games since his return, he's hitting .435 (10/23) with a 1.132 OPS and should be a mainstay in the middle of the Reds' potent offense with the occasional day off for rest.
  • 3B Alberto Callaspo, LAA (51.7% E; 32% Y!) is another third baseman with value on waivers. Over his last 15 days, he's hitting .339 (19/56) with 11 RBI. He doesn't offer much power or speed but would fill in nicely if you are reeling from injuries at what's proving to be an even shallower third base position than it was on draft day.
  • OF Roger Bernadina, WAS (2.2% E; 2% Y!) is the Nationals' starting center fielder and leadoff hitter and deserves to be owned in more leagues. He's now hitting .293 on the year with four stolen bases in his last 11 games. His 12.8 BB% has led to a nice .383 OBP. If the Nationals' offense could find some consistency, Bernadina could be a cheap source for runs scored, too.
  • C Yadier Molina, STL (60.3% E; 55% Y!) has a 5x5 line of .323/16/3/18/1 and currently stands as the third-ranked catcher on ESPN's Player Rater after hitting .483 (14/29) with a 1.190 OPS over his last seven games. There's no reason to hold onto a multi-category killing catcher this deep into the season. You should be willing to play the hot hand if you missed out on the upper-tier options.
  • OF John Jay, STL (1.1% E; 2% Y!) could see some additional playing time if Tony LaRussa continues get Albert Pujols starts at third base, going forward. His .322/8/3/11/1 line has been very under-utilized up until this point, thanks to the blazing start to the season Lance Berkman has had.
  • OF Ryan Ludwick, SD (20.3% E; 17% Y!) has been on a tear over his last seven games, hitting .444 (12/27) with four home runs, 13 RBI and a .889 SLG. He may only be worth rostering on road trips, though (.177/6/4/11/0 at home; .280/13/4/17/1 away).
  • RP Fernando Salas, STL (55.3% E; 39% Y!) is the latest Cardinals' reliever to get a chance at some saves and has gone 4-for-4 in his opportunities. Mix in a 2-0 record, 1.02 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.15 K/9, 3.20 K/BB, .153 BAA and three Holds and you got yourself a very valuable reliever in nearly all formats.
Is it time to hit the panic button yet on some under-performing players and if so, which ones have you simply cut your losses with and moved on from already? I'd love to hear from you in the comments section.

Be sure to check back every day to see who won COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:
  • Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
  • Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
  • John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
  • Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.
There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:
  • Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him
Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:
  • Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
  • Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
  • Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
  • John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
  • Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.
Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.