Special Trade Recap: Fukudome to Cleveland

As the local Cleveland Indians apologist, I was asked to give my slant on the trade that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Tribe today. Now this is obviously outside of my "area of expertise", being the late-inning relief guy here. But I think getting out of one's element every once in a while isn't necessarily a bad thing.

So here goes.

The Details: Chicago Cubs OF Kosuke Fukudome was sent to the Indians yesterday for two minor league players: OF Abner Abreu (Class A Kinston) and RH RP Carlton Smith (Class AAA Columbus). Fukudome, who has $4.7 million left on his contract for 2011, will have all but $775,000 of it picked up by the Cubs. Fukudome is in the last year of his contract and is potentially worth free-agent compensation this coming offseason. This means if the Indians offer Fukudome arbitration and he declines in favor of free agency, he would qualify as a Type B free agent (and would be worth one compensatory pick in '12). To make room on the 40-man roster, OF Travis Buck was designated for assignment.

The Breakdown: Fukudome was reasonably solid in the lead-off spot for the Cubs, contributing a .275 BA / .374 OBP / .742 OPS. The 13 RBIs is a little misleading, as he hit lead-off for a National League team. He's an extremely patient hitter, sporting an average of 4.33 pitches / AB this year. While he's not going to impress with his power (3 HR this season, 13 HRs tops in his MLB career, and a .141 ISO for his MLB career leans towards him being naturally light on power), his bat-handling is relatively good (.330 BAbip, 5-for-5 in sac bunts, only 2 GIDP, and a 5.1 AB/K ratio). He has plus speed (2-for-4 in steals this year, 27-for-51 on his MLB career), and is a flexible outfielder (he's played both RF and CF in three of the four years of his career).

The Positives:

• Fukudome is stats-wise instantly the best outfielder on the Indians not named Michael Brantley. With Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo on the shelf for at least the next month (Choo is hopeful for mid-August, but that should be taken with a grain of salt), the Tribe has been platooning Travis Buck, Austin Kearns, Ezequiel Carrera, and Shelley Duncan (currently in AAA Columbus)... We'll forget that little "experiment" with Luis Valbuena in the outfield. Both Sizemore and Choo were picking up their games (they were a combined 20-for-63 with ten walks and 20 RBIs in their last ten games played) before they were hurt, so their losses were at the worst time possible. Since the All-Star Break, the platoon mentioned above (minus Duncan, who had not played since July 8th and was sent back down to Columbus July 17th) has gone 14-for-73 (.192) with 12 walks and five RBIs. Fukudome by himself went 9-for-35 (.257) with four walks and an RBI. Travis Buck was by far the weakest link of the platoon (2-for-24, 2 BB, 2 RBI), and he was designated for assignment to get Fukudome a spot on the 40-man roster.
• Fukudome gives the Indians a legitimate contact bat that is sorely needed. How sorely? In the 13 games (5-8 record) since the All-Star Break, the Indians are dead last in the AL in BA (.216) and OBP (.285), second-to-last in hits (91) and RBIs (43), and third-to-last in runs (46). This year, Fukudome is batting .311 with RISP, with an impressive OPS of .982, and a .394 BAbip. That's actually an improvement on his solid career marks (.274 / .871 / .306). And while his bat isn't a power right-handed bat like the Indians fans insist they need, it's a marked improvement over what they have available.

The Negatives:

• The biggest (and only real) negative can be distilled down to two words. Two simple words make all of the above stats on Fukudome pale instantly: League Change. All of the numbers are including NL pitching, whom he's dealt with for the last 4 years. With this lovely invention of Interleague Play, we can see how he's stack up against the pitchers of the AL. The stats are not-so-hot. In 53 games (200 PA) against the AL in his career, he's batting .217, sporting an OPS of .594, but does have a .282 BAbip. He's hit a home run, driven in eight... But his K/BB ratio is just a touch over 2.00 (43 Ks, 21 BBs).
• He's going to be coming into a situation with the Indians where he's going to be asked to produce pretty much immediately. He's made a more drastic change of scenery before, coming from the Chunichi Dragons of the Japan Central League to join the Cubs in '08 (a campaign that saw him as an All-Star Starter and in the running for the Rookie of the Year). This time, he at least has some familiarity with the pitching coming in, and might be able to bring the professionalism and solid skillset to bear quickly.

The Verdict: In my mind, we won't know the full effect of this trade for about 2-3 weeks. Fukudome will need an adjustment period to full-time AL pitching staffs, but he has solid experience and a good eye to back him up. I feel he'll hit a good stride in September, producing near his career averages in the important categories. He is a low-risk, medium-reward move that doesn't have the "Wow!" factor of a Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants. However, he is one of the pieces that the Indians needed to fill the gaping holes of Sizemore and Choo.

I feel that the Indians aren't done making moves, but this first one is a good step in the right direction.

Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition

Well, well, well...Wednesday was a big day in the land of baseball. A bombshell of a deal sending Carlos Beltran to the World Champion San Francisco Giants, a massive three-way exchange involving 11 players in all. Yesterday had Kosuke Fukudome heading to Cleveland to shore up the outfield (a move on which I might have more to say). With just two days left til the Trading Deadline, there's bound to be plenty more 'shock and awe' to come. I'm sure there will be updates as we go along.

As it is, let's go over last week's names:

• John Axford continues to impress, knocking out three saves in three games. Three innings of work saw him give up two hits, striking out three and walking no one. A very solid week for the youngster as the Brew-Crew fight off three other teams for the top spot in the NL Central.
• Jason Isringhausen appeared in two games and saved both. He now has 296 saves on his career. He gave up a hit, a walk, and two knockouts in two innings of work. Bobby Parnell has been rocky over the past few games, so I believe that Izzy is going to be the go-to closer. That is, unless a move gets made. Beltran's already been let go by the Not-So-Mighty Mets. We won't know if they're in full fire-sale mode until Sunday.
• Fernando Salas worked two innings this past week, allowing one hit and one walk, fanning four and notching two saves. The Cards are only a half-game out from the above-mentioned Brewers, and so long as Fernando continues his solid performances, St. Louis will be in the race for the rest of the season.
• Carlos Marmol was seen in three games (2.2 IP), giving up three hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. Sean Marshall seems to have the lead as the "closer for the moment" on the Cubs staff, and it looks like Carlos will be in a set-up role until his mechanics are right. He could be good for a few cheap and easy holds in the interim.

With all that said and done, here's this week's award "winners":

• "Doing Work" - Brian Wilson (SF): Since his little dugout meltdown on the 1st of the month, "The Beard" has been on a tear. In his last ten appearances (ten innings pitched) since he threw down with that Gatorade cooler, he's saved eight games, giving up two runs on seven hits in the process. He's walked four, but stuck out nine in the span. With the Giants' acquisition of Carlos Beltran, the front office is showing its seriousness and intent on thinking "repeat" this year. Contention, especially late-season, will depend on Wilson being his freaky self (all apologies to the REAL Freak, Tim Lincecum) at the back-end of the San Fran 'pen. Career-wise, Brian's heading into his best month of the season: He carries a 1.26 ERA in the month of August on his career, .555 OPS, .286 BAbip, and a strong 1.158 WHIP. This is very promising for a team that's picked up a huge bat for an offense looking desperately for help. While a boost in offense might trim down The Beard's save chances, Beltran will not solve all the Giants' O woes. Wilson will still be in the top five in saves, and likely be a catalyst to another push to the Playoffs for the City By The Bay.
• "Unsung Hero" - Mike Adams (SD): Though the Padres are well-removed from playoff contention, but you wouldn't know it by looking at Adams. He has been having a sensational year, along the lines of Joakim Soria for the Royals on the AL side of the fence. In the last week of work, Mike didn't allow a single run, gave up two hits, and no walks. He's also notched four knockouts and two holds. Sporting a 1.15 ERA on the season, Adams deeper numbers are equally impressive: 0.723 WHIP, 5.33 K/BB ratio, a .451 OPS, and a BAbip of a microscopic .200. His FIP of 2.07, while less solid than his ERA, is still extremely sweet and indicative of a pitcher that's solid enough to not need the backing of his defense (mid-ranked in the MLB). With the trade winds swirling around San Diego closer Heath Bell (and even Adams himself), the situation in the Padres' camp is fluid. If Bell is traded, I would expect Adams to move into the closer role and be a pick-up of value in most leagues. If Adams were to get traded however, it would be to a team with an immediate need for a solid set-up man. That'd help his value in deep or 5x5/6x6 leagues. Either way, Adams is worth looking into for shoring up your fantasy staff.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Antonio Bastardo (PHI): Yet another story about another closer in another pennant chase not exactly getting things done lately. Bastardo has slipped a bit off a solid season over the last seven days. He's only notched one save in three appearances (2.2 IP), giving up two runs on two hits and two walks. On a good note, he did fan three. Antonio has been having a career year, with an ERA of 1.38, FIP of 2.52, OPS of .422, and BAbip of .159. However, there's the case of another young arm possibly starting to fold under the pressure of a tight race. Bastardo's numbers over the last 14 days (ERA of 4.50, OPS of .568, BAbip of .286) are a little troubling. While there's not really a whole lot to go off of (he's only worked one game in August in his career), a sudden falloff during a pennant race is never a good thing. My recommendation is to hang onto Bastardo until we get an idea of how at least the first half of August goes for him.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Henry Rodriguez (WSH): The Nats, while realistically in the Wild Card hunt, are going to have some issues while Rodriguez is in their 'pen. His last seven days read like a pitching coach's nightmare: two games, 1.1 IP, six runs on four hits (including a blast), six walks, no strikeouts. A 4.25 ERA on the year, combined with a paltry 1.32 K/BB ratio, 1.639 WHIP, and .313 BAbip are the epitome of "stay away". There are a few pluses to his game: Only one homer allowed in 36 innings, a GO/AO ratio of 1.48 is solid, he has five holds on the season, and he's only allowed 27% of his inherited runners to score (3-for-11). While those kinds of things may hold promise for future considerations (say, the next year or two), he is of no help now, and should be avoided at any and all opportunities.

That's all that's fit to print for the moment. As always, comments below, or hit me up on Twitter: @JCPronkFan48

Waiver Saviors: Digging Deep Edition

As the season grinds along, managing your rosters in competitive leagues becomes increasingly more difficult as everyone is targeting ways to make a run at the league title or finish in the money spots.

Let's look at a group of players with extremely low ownership rates who can help you in very deep mixed leagues or league-only ones. Shallow mixed leagues aren't worth playing in nor worth talking about. Stick to fantasy football. I hear there could be a season or something. Whatever.

• OF Hideki Matsui, OAK (10.8% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) is hitting .469 (15/32) since the All-Star break with two home runs and 11 RBI. He's the kind of player to own while he's on a hot streak and dump the moment he goes cold.
• OF Dexter Fowler, COL (21.3% ESPN; 18% Yahoo!) is making the most of his recent call-up from AAA. In 10 games, he's hitting .324 with a .439 OBP, three doubles, three triples, three stolen bases and 10 runs scored. With Carlos Gonzalez on the DL, Fowler should get every opportunity to start in center field and prove he's the player the Rockies and fantasy GM's wish he'd become.
• OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (14.0% ESPN; 17% Yahoo!) is back as the Cubs everyday center fielder and proving he can still hit after suffering multiple facial fractures. In 19 games since his return, he's hitting .329 (23/70) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and 10 runs scored.
• 1B/OF Mike Carp, SEA (0.5% ESPN; 1% Yahoo!) has a five-game hitting streak since being recalled from AAA, going 8-for-22 (.364) with two home runs. Expect the Mariners to continue running out their youngsters to see what they're capable of and whether or not they fit in to the team's long-term plans.
• 2B Mark Ellis, COL (6.7% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) has produced a .325/16/2/11/2 line in 20 games since being traded to the Rockies and should be considered a viable option at second base or middle infielder position.
• RP Edward Mujica, FLA (3.3% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) has been named closer-in-waiting should the Marlins deal current closer Leo Nunez. If you are desperate for saves, now might be the time to pick up Mujica. You can drop him in all non-holds leagues come early next week if Nunez is still with the team.
• RP Glen Perkins, MIN (2.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is now the primary setup man for the Twins after Matt Capps recent implosion and Joe Nathan's return to closer. He is a must-own in holds leagues with his 10.01 K/9 ratio.
• 2B/3B/SS/OF Michael Martinez, PHI (18.1% ESPN; 10% Yahoo!) has filled in quite nicely as the Phillies have dealt with injuries to Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco. In July, he's hitting .296 with two home runs, 15 RBI and three stolen bases. Polanco is due back from the DL this weekend, so keep an eye on his playing time.
• 3B/SS/OF Willie Bloomquist, ARI (7.3% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) should be the primary beneficiary as the result of Stephen Drew's horrific injury. Bloomquist is hitting .327 with two stolen bases in July. As long as he is hitting and stealing bases, he should keep Cody Ransom on the bench.
• 2B Brett Lawrie, TOR (1.7% ESPN; 5% Yahoo!) has returned to the lineup in AAA and hitting .367 with a home run and seven RBI in seven July games. Expect him to be called up soon and inserted into third base as the Blue Jays fade from the playoff picture in the AL East. Lawrie should now be owned in all keeper leagues and dynasty formats.

If your league is still very active heading into August, then the action on the waiver wire should remain fiercely competitive. Dig a little deeper into the statistics (last 7 days, last 15 days, etc.) and keep an eye on injuries, playing time, trades and rookie call-ups to find the players who'll benefit the most from these moves and don't be afraid to anticipate the transactions with a bold move of your own.

Warming Up In The 'Pen: NL Edition: July 21st, 2011

Greetings once more, folks!

While we haven't had that blockbuster of a deal involving the back-end of anyone's 'pen like last week (trade deadline's only 10 days away!), there is a bit of news that's worthwhile to report about one of my picks from the last NL article. Let's get to that previous week review:

• Drew Storen was straight dominant in two appearances this last week, both saves. He only allowed one hit in two innings of work, fanning four in the process and walking none.
• Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset saw a good amount of work this past week (three appearances for Masset, four for Ondrusek). Each added a hold to his line, working 5.1 innings of scoeless ball combined. Each man allowed a hit, a walk, and a strikeout over the last seven days.
• Francisco Cordero seemed to recover nicely from being the co-"Heart Attack Winner" this past week, notching two saves in two perfect innings of work...
• ...But Carlos Marmol went pure nuclear, giving up six earned runs in 1.2 innings of work. He only gave up three hits, but allowed an astounding seven walks in three outings. The Cubs are working Marmol on the side to fix up a "mechanical flaw" centered around his slider, and have installed Sean Marshall as the go-to closer for the team in the interim.
• Zach Braddock continued to be, well, Zach Braddock, giving up four runs on two hits and two walks in his only appearance over the last week. Oh, by the way, did I mention he didn't even record a single out? I think that's enough about Mr. Braddock for now.

 So onto this week's fun!

• Our "Doing Work" star is none other than John Axford from the Milwaukee Brewers. Since the Francisco Rodriguez trade, Axford has doled out three saves in four outings, giving up two runs (one earned) on four hits in four innings. He walked two in those outings, but also punched out four. If K-Rod's arrival on the scene has phased the young right-hander, it hasn't shown. The Brew-Crew have stayed the course using Axford as their closer, even after acquiring K-Rod, and it's not hard to see why: 26/28 Saves, 1.52 GO/AO ratio, 3.00 K/BB ratio, and a 73% Contact Percentage. He's a strike-thrower, pitches to contact, and lets his defense help him. Even though the defense behind him is the third worst in the NL, his stats say that he's perfectly capable of doing things himself (reference the K/BB ratio, and his FIP of 2.28 versus his ERA of 2.78). But the stats also tell us that he could be walking a fine line. His WHIP (1.368), H/9 (8.5), and BAbip (.353) are all pretty hefty numbers. While a sub-par defense (and gracious scorers) could be driving numbers like those upward, it could be indicative of a younger arm starting to tire and lose the control that contact pitchers need to be effective. Axford is on-pace to work more innings (74.1) than he's ever pitched in the Majors, and the second most in his career as a whole (his most being his '08 stint with Milwaukee's A+ club at 95 IP).The K-Rod deal could easily have been one to bolster the 'pen and save Axford's arm. K-Rod's a proven commodity and could help down the stretch while the club eases Axford into more innings, instead of sacrificing a solid "future considerations" arm. Fantasy owners should read that as: the Brewers will likely ease off using the young phenom as the season soldiers on, bringing K-Rod in for more save opps come August and September, especially if the Brew-Crew finds themselves in an NL Central dogfight near the end. And for those of you wondering, K-Rod's line since coming to the Brew-Crew: 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 0/1 Saves, 1 Hold, 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
• This week's "Unsung Hero" has been mentioned in my previous article: Jason Isringhausen of the New York Mets. Post K-Rod, Izzy has been dubbed the closer in this MacGyver'ed back-end of the Mets' 'pen, and he's come out strong. He worked three games this week, notching save #294 in his career (and win #47). Through four shutout innings (including two innings of work last night), he allowed two hits and two walks, but sat down six. The 38 year-old northpaw gets a lot of help from his defense nowadays (0.58 GO/AO, .221 BAbip, 2.76 ERA vs 4.28 FIP), but does still have something left in the cannon (1.80 K/BB with 27 Ks in 32.2 IP). The big thing with Izzy will be stamina. Terry Collins has stated that Izzy will get a day or two off after pitching two innings last night, and that likely means any save opportunities will fall to Bobby Parnell (who, incidentally, got the hold in Izzy's save). There are rumblings that Izzy could be dealt by the Trade Deadline, which would be a blow to Mets fans and baseball at large (Izzy has a chance to hit 300 saves with the same club he broke in with), but could be an interesting twist for fantasy leagues with Holds as a stat as Izzy could fit into the eighth inning plans of several staffs. I would say grab Izzy up if he's available in free agency or the waiver wire in your 5x5 or 6x6 league, but I also wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him. His age may put him as only a temporary solution in whatever bullpen he's in.
• The "Heart Attack Award" for today goes to Fernando Salas of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have scuffled of late, losing three straight, and seven of their last ten. Salas hasn't exactly helped right the ship in his last three outings, saving one, blowing one, and losing two (including the blown save). He gave up three runs in three innings, allowed five hits (including two longballs), and only struck out two. While Fernando's numbers this season are no slouch (2.68 ERA, 17/20 Saves, 0.915 WHIP, 4.18 K/BB, .569 OPS, .227 BAbip), the fact that he's melted down in the last week when the Cards have been desperate to stay atop their division is distressing. Though there's not many numbers to back this up (he only made his ML debut in late May of '10), Salas could be in for a rough second half. Cards fans will be hoping for a turn-around from Salas and a quick return to his "old" form. Otherwise, Jason Motte is waiting in the wings for a shot to get the Cards back into the thick of the hunt. Fantasy owners may want to be aware of things like these: 4.78 ERA, 1 Save, 1.595 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, .859 OPS, .324 BAbip. Those are Salas' second-half numbers. Again, Salas is only 26, and is pitching in his first FULL season with the Cards, so take the numbers as you will. My opinion is one of cautious optimism in Salas' youth and current production, but keep other options on your roster in case the bottom does (once again) fall out.
• My "ZOMBIE!" is the aforementioned Carlos Marmol of the Cubs. His season has seemed to go from bad to worse. Now the Cubs are trying to get his mechanics back in shape with his slider. The Cubs are hoping to platoon Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood in the closer's role while Marmol gets right, but neither one of those men has been exactly lighting things up (3.18 and 3.45 ERAs respectively, with 2/7 Saves between them). Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) the Cubs are 14 games out, and can take the time to get Marmol back to form. To fantasy owners who still have Marmol, I think it's safe to let go at this point and attempt to get someone that'll be more useful to the depth of your rotation.

Next week is looking to be a doozy. Not much in the way of big moves just yet, but the way the trade winds are swirling, it could be the calm before the storm.

As always, comments are welcome below or reach out to me on Twitter @JCPronkFan48.

Line of the Day: July 15th, 2011

Ryan Dempster pitched four-hit ball over eight scoreless innings and struck out nine without issuing a walk as the Chicago Cubs help on to beat the Florida Marlins 2-1.

Line: 8 IP | 4 H | 0 ER | 0 BB | 9 K; W | QS

My fantasy perspective: After a disastrous April (6 GS, 1-3, 9.58 ERA), Dempster has done all he could to turn his season around. Since then, he's gone 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 starts. More impressively, the Cubs have gone 11-3 in those starts.

If Dempster can stay on this pace, he could easily amass 12-15 wins and approach 200 strikeouts while continually chipping away at his gaudy 4.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. You may be able to pry him away in a trade fairly cheaply from an owner who's only looking at his season's numbers and not the impressive run his been on over the last 2.5 months.

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Warming In The 'Pen: The NL Edition: July 14th, 2011

Greetings once again, folks!

It figures that when I'm getting ready to work on the NL side of the house for this article series, something big comes up. I suppose that's to be expected around this time of the season, and we should expect more news in the next several days to come. Needless to say, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the move made this morning involving the New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers before getting into the normal heart of the article today.

The Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers today for 2 gentlemen by the name of "Player To Be Named Later", a common commodity. I'll be honest and say I'm not sure what either team's looking to get out of this deal.

The Mets are giving up a star-power closer for prospects when they're not completely removed from the hunt. A good stretch run could find them in the thick of the Wildcard race. However, if the Mets suddenly find themselves running as a closer-by-committee, it could be a rough road to haul. A couple of candidates to fill the role would be the grizzled-but-tough right-handed veteran presence of Jason Isringhausen (whom at the tender age of 38 is seven saves shy of the vaunted 300 mark), and the young and spry Bobby Parnell (who has really grown into the short-relief role with the Mets the last two years). This could also clear the road for another call-up of Dale Thayer, who's had a decent season closing in Triple-A Buffalo. Time will tell how the Mets front office handles this move, though reports are that this is by no means a "waving the white flag" maneuver.

Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on the Izzy/Parnell situation. I would be leaning more towards Izzy in the short-term, due to his star power, experience for a possible playoff push, and the simple fact of getting save #300 on the team he broke into the show with. That's something baseball fans in general would want to see in this day and age.

The Brewers, in the meantime, are picking up another closer when they have John Axford, who is having a sensational year. Rodriguez hasn't pitched in a setup role since the team he was with was called the Anaheim Angels, but the Milwaukee bullpen could benefit from another strong arm. LaTroy Hawkins has been one of the only solid late-inning options for the Brew-Crew as of late, but is still coming off of rotator cuff surgery late last season. The Brewers will be careful with Hawkins for the rest of the season, and especially now that another proven arm has joined the 'pen.

The big news for fantasy owners here is that there may be split closes for Axford and K-Rod from here on out. As close as the NL Central race is, though, don't be surprised to see Milwaukee "dance with who brought them there" and keep Axford as the primary Saves choice. That would leave K-Rod and LaTroy to platoon the set-up role, and thusly split and share any Hold chances in deep leagues.

Now, back to regularly-scheduled programming.

• This week's NL pick for "Doing Work" is Washington's Drew Storen. Drew's last 5 games have been uneventful: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 K, 4 Sv. Those numbers, along with a solid season overall (5-2, 2.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 20/23 Sv, 3 Hld), I'm willing to say that this kid (23 years old) is just starting on an upswing. The kid's a ground-ball pitcher (1.50 GO/AO) with a more-than-servicable OPS (.560) and BABIP (.218). Some are questioning his FIP of over 3.50, but I feel that with his youth, that'll improve by bounds. He is a solid pick-up in more or less any style league, and should be good for several statistical categories for the rest of the season.
• The "Unsung Heroes" in the Senior Circuit this week (and yes, that's plural) are the Reds' Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset. The pair have combined for 5 holds over 8.2 IP, allowing 1 ER, 6 H and 3 BB, striking out 6 along the way. This tandem has assisted the Reds to hold close (pun only semi-intended) in the NL Central race, being only 4 games out with a whole half to go. Ondrusek and Masset have amassed 21 holds on the season, keeping low OPS (.595 and .630) and BABIP (.226 and .283). They both give up more ground balls than fly balls, but are slightly prone to the home run ball (7 HR in 89 IP). Despite this, I feel that these two are a good pick-up. If you have to choose between the two though, I would have to choose Ondrusek on his youth and potential in the long-run.
• The "Heart Attack Award" in this piece also go to a pair: Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero and the Cubs' Carlos Marmol. As good as Ondrusek and Masset have been for the Reds, Cordero has been just as... flaky. While Cordero has posted a season line worthy of some of his better campaigns in his careers (3-3, 2.95 ERA, 17/22 Sv), his last 5 games have been nothing short of horrific. In 4.1 innings, he's given up 7 runs on 9 hits (including a homer), 4 walks, and only getting 1 K. He saved one game, but blew 3. Marmol has similar season numbers (2-2, 2.57 ERA, 19/25 Sv), and while his last 5 games weren't as bad as Cordero's, his line was no walk in the park: 3.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. Both of them are going through rough patches right now, but Cordero's seems a little more serious. His issues with being hit seem to be more sustained as of late, and at 13 seasons in the Big Leagues, his arm may be showing signs of trailing off. With a decent duo in the bullpen (as mentioned above), and Aroldis Chapman lurking in the shadows, any further signs of this slump continuing could pull Cordero out of the closer role on a more permanent basis.
• Lastly, the "ZOMBIE!" of the National League this week is Milwaukee hurler Zach Braddock. Zack is likely to be the loser in the K-Rod deal, and for good reason. His last 5 games: 4 IP, 6 ER on 5 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. The results were a hold and a blown save. His season is along the same lines (0-1, 5.19 ERA, 0/1 Sv), and some of the advanced stats don't sit in his favor: a GO/AO of 0.48, along with a Slg of .369 and OPS of .690 tell me that he's getting hit, and getting hit hard. 43% of the hits he's given up have been of the extra bases variety, and batters are finding a way to make contact off him (63% of the strikes he threw were either fouled off or put in-play). I don't feel Mister Braddock is long for the Brewers rotation, especially now with K-Rod in the mix. Maybe a stint in the Minors will give him something; be it a better mix of his pitches, an added weapon to the arsenal. Even a chance to get that dominant vibe off Triple-A hitting, and bring it back up to the Brewers in September could be the key to making this pitcher a force in the future. For now, however, I can't see him being even remotely usable in anything but a league needing ridiculous depth on the bench.

So that's my take on the NL this week. I know I promised more concise, but no one can anticipate the tides of change in the world of baseball. Things may calm down after the Trading Deadline passes.

At least until September call-ups.

See y'all next Tuesday!

Comments, complaints, or any other words? Hit me up with a comment in the box below, or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

The Knurve To Say: July 5th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...not only is Brian McCann the best catcher in baseball now, but he has been the best for the past five years.

When my love of fantasy baseball was developing, I had one player who I wanted to get on my team every year; Placido Polanco. He was a great defender for the Tigers, he hit for average, he scored runs, it was awesome. But after a while, I realized how purely marginal a phenomenal batting average is when a player doesn’t contribute anywhere else. It’s the same reason you could argue Tony Gwynn was such an overrated fantasy player outside of his prime because he hit for a good average and did nothing else.

But just as Gwynn received so much hype during his career, I think Joe Mauer is the same, if not worse. The top three catchers in the past five or six years have been Mauer, Victor Martinez, and McCann. In looking back at the numbers, Martinez and McCann are a cut above, fantasy-wise.

Many fantasy baseball owners are like I was when I was younger (not to belittle fantasy baseball owners by comparing them with my childhood stupidity). We are fascinated with batting average. We can see a .320+ AVG and totally neglect the other holes in a player’s game, and this is the year where we notice the entirety of Mauer’s flaws, especially since McCann is having such a phenomenal year.

The McCann-Mauer comparison isn’t even close in my eyes, and that’s even taking into account 2009, when Mauer had his MVP year. When we evaluate players year-to-year in fantasy, we want to see consistency and consistent contributions. Mauer’s 2009 has set the table for a profoundly disappointing 2010 and, so far, 2011. The reason I think this is worthy of noting and worthy of writing this is because of the position they play. Unless you over-invest, fantasy owners don’t expect phenomenal production from their catchers. But the reason McCann has been better, is better now, and will be better than Mauer is because he contributes more consistently in more categories from a position you don’t expect much out of.

My opinion: From now on, stay the heck away from Mauer and players like him. There will always be someone in your league who thinks his batting average potential is worth way more than it actually is.

Thoughts from the past week that was:

• Hanley Ramirez is back! He had a few great games last week and he’s still a complete defensive liability, but a trip to the launch-pad known as Rangers Ballpark may have cured his woes. The Marlins may not have their lives together, but I am a believer that Hanley will right the ship and this team will play better baseball from here on out.
• Somebody get Aramis Ramirez a juice box. He hit six homers last week! SIX! That’s unbelievable. If you read my NL All-Star predictions, you’ll know that I thought third base in the NL was a vast wasteland. As much as people love to rip on Aramis, he is on pace for around 20/80 with around a .300 average to end the season. It’s amazing, but that may be the best stat line a third baseman in the NL posts this year, and it’s not even close. I’m buying this hot streak.
• If somebody’s going to get A-Ram a juice box, somebody get Dee Gordon a Triple Thick Milkshake. I admire the fight in this kid, but I just don’t know if he is big enough to be successful in the big leagues. I want him to succeed, I really do, but I question if he is capable of generating the bat speed necessary to get past first base even though his speed is uber-vuluptuous.
• After homering off both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, I’m fully ready to say Jose Bautista is back. I said a few weeks ago to sell on him. A large part of me would still sell unless you’re playing him at third base. This is not to say he can’t hit 20 homers in the second half, but I feel like he’s becoming one of those guys whose name recognition is growing among fantasy owners. I think there’s a correlation to the fact that he received the most all-star votes of all-time. People may just overpay a bunch for him. If you can fill holes in your team by getting rid of Bautista, I would do it.
• I’m going to say this now and I know it’s going to sound crazy. If there’s any feedback on this comment, I will write a separate article on it next week or a special article later this week. If the Pittsburgh Pirates make the playoffs (HUGE IF), then I think there is a case to be made for Joel Hanrahan to be the NL MVP. The Pirates run differential this season is +2. If they don’t have Hanrahan, the best closer in the game this season, then there is absolutely ZERO reason for optimism on this team going forward. I never thought I’d be one to advocate for a closer to be an MVP, but a 1.37 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 25-for-25 in save chances is hard to refute on a team with a AAA offense.

Last week, the Mike Stanton Man-Crush Meter sat at a 5. This week, I’m sad to say, it’s dropped to a 3. I mean, what the hell Mike. I shamelessly and embarrassingly dedicate a whole section of my new articles to you and you do this to me? No home runs since June 11?!?! Really?!?!? What the hell, bro?! You’re not doing anything well right now and it’s so frustrating. I don’t even know how to react. Trying to throw in a few steals at the end of the month isn’t going to make me feel better. If you don’t hit a dinker in the next week, we’re going to have some problems. But if you do make Prince Fielder’s NL Home Run Derby team, you’ll have great potential to captivate me again.

Joke of the week: What did the snail say when he was riding the turtle? WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!! (Thanks Matt Lauer)

David Kaplan
@TheKnurve
DHKaplan17@yahoo.com

Line of the Day: June 27th, 2011

Aramis Ramirez doubled, homered twice and drove in three runs in the Chicago Cubs 7-3 victory over the Colorado Rockies. It was his 24th multi-homer game of his career.

Line: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B, 2 HR

My fantasy perspective: Ramirez is starting to show signs of life. In his first 53 games of the season, he had just two home runs, 21 RBI and a .287 batting average. But over his last 19 games, he's homered six times with 16 RBI and a .295 batting average.

If you've held onto Ramirez through the first two-plus months of the season, your patience is starting to be rewarded. He's currently on pace for a .289/60/17/77/0 season, but with a few more hot streaks like the one he's been on and he could easily reach the 25 HR mark.

If you're an owner who's frustrated with owning him, now would be the time to approach the obvious Cubs' fan in your league (HINT: his team is always named the "Chicago Cubs") to see what player(s) he'd trade you in return for Ramirez.

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Your League Probably Sucks...

...IF any of these examples are true about the fantasy baseball leagues you're in this season:

• Eric Hosmer is owned in only 59% of Yahoo! leagues. He has a 5x5 line of .309/18/5/21/2 in 32 games and has been an impact player since being called up on May 6th. He hit home runs in back-to-back games at New York on May 11th and 12th. He should have been 100% owned on May 13th, if not sooner. Check your waiver wire now to validate how much your league probably sucks.
• There is no reason whatsoever for Manny Ramirez to still be owned in 7.7% of ESPN and 5% of Yahoo! leagues. NONE! WHAT! SO! EVER! Quit sending trade proposals to these owners for any of their players. They gave up caring about your league long ago.
• Joe Mauer owners are dying to get his bat back into their lineups and there's hope it could happen in as soon as a weeks time. But can you explain to me why he's currently starting in 14% of Yahoo! leagues? Oh, I know why. Because those 14% of owners were so bromantically committed to having Mauer on their team that they no longer had anything to live for when he got injured. If your league hates the DL or has such limited bench spots, I have a formula for you. Lazy owners + crappy league settings - common sense = sucky league.
• Speaking of catchers: Does your league use a "two catcher" format? If so, it sucks. ESPN's Player Rater ranks just 17 catcher-eligible players with a rating above zero. Now I'm no mathematician but a negative rating on any scale has got to be a bad thing. Oh and one of those 17 players is Mr. Out For The Season Buster Posey, so let's knock that down to 16 players. Jorge Posada is ranked 27th and is owned in 18.4% of ESPN leagues. Nuff said. Quit requiring people to draft crappy hitters, you sadomasochists.
• Hey...you know that guy in your league who named his team after his favorite real team (most likely the Cubs) and his infield is made up of Carlos Pena, Darwin Barney, Starlin Castro and Aramis Ramirez? And his pitching staff is anchored by Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano with Carlos Marmol as his closer? Yeah? Well that guy sucks as an owner and any league that continues to invite that guy sucks too.
• Anthony Rizzo and Mike Moustakas were both called up to the majors this week and should see their ownership numbers skyrocket. Wait. What's that? You only get to make changes to your lineup weekly? Oh my. Weekly leagues suck. Plain and simple. This isn't fantasy football. Get involved in daily leagues or don't get involved at all. If fantasy baseball takes too much time and/or effort to manage a team over the course of six months then don't join.
• Keeper leagues are a lot of fun but why is everyone in your league talking about them in June? I'd rather play to win my league this year owning Johnny Damon than lose while owning Bryce Harper. Quit sucking and play to win now!

I'll continue writing these posts periodically to point out the number one frustration most fantasy baseball players experience in their leagues most years: INACTIVITY! Inactive owners affect the overall value of a league. How many times have you sent a trade proposal to another owner to simply have it ignored or expire?   Does winning a league filled with inactivity really give you any level off satisfaction if no money was involved? Probably not. Does kicking a cat before it can steal your soul feel good? The answer to that will always be yes. ALWAYS!

What experiences have you had which left you pondering whether or not your league(s) sucks?

Waiver Saviors: May 19th, 2011

Waiver Saviors is a regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact in fantasy baseball and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process. This advice applies best to very deep, mixed leagues and shallow league-only leagues. I'm not sure why people still insist on playing in shallow mixed leagues where EVERYONE is available on waivers.

Here's the latest batch of Waiver Saviors who may be worth owning if your roster continually has been decimated by injuries or you're finally ready to move on from an under-performing draft selection:

• OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (32.6% ESPN; 29% Yahoo! owned) is currently tied for sixth in hits (51) in the MLB, is hitting .307 and has scored 22 runs. Those are some positives. On the flip side, he only has two home runs and nine RBI, a 2.9 BB% and an inflated BABIP of .374. The Cubs will continue to run him out there everyday and slot him in the three hole in the lineup and there is value in that if you need a temporary fill-in for an injured player. And it also helps that he's hitting .340 over his last 15 games and both of his homers have come during that span.
• OF Jonny Gomes, CIN (17.2% E; 23% Y!) is only hitting .183 and officially lost his starting left field job, so why would there be any value in acquiring him? One word; interleague. The Reds are going to use him at DH in upcoming interleague games hoping to utilize his bat. This could be the wake up call his season needs. Now if he could just cut down his 31.7 K% and have a few balls drop into play (.195 BABIP).
• OF Seth Smith, COL (25.8% E; 15% Y!) has started 31 of the Rockies 41 games and made it into a total of 35, producing 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23 Runs and 3 SB. At his current pace, he'd produce a full season line of .286/91/16/71/12. In 2010, only 28 players accomplished a 16 HR/12 SB or better season. His splits (.301 BA vs RHP; .167 BA vs LHP) prove he'll be stuck in a platoon and should be utilized as such on your fantasy team, as well.
• 1B Todd Helton, COL (68.3% E; 37% Y!) looks healthy and could add value to your team in several categories from a CI, IF or UTL/DH slot in deep, mixed leagues or shallow NL-only ones (8th-ranked NL first baseman). Is a 20+ HR/75+ RBI/.315+ BA season that much of a stretch for him? He's outperforming guys like Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn and Billy Bulter at this point and deserves a look.
• OF Corey Patterson, TOR (14.1% E; 7% Y!) is currently the Blue Jays starting left fielder and batting at the top of an offensively-potent lineup. In his last 14 straight starts, he's batting .295 (18/61) with six doubles, two triples, nine RBI, 11 runs scored and three stolen bases. Get past the name and look at the statistics and you'll see a player with plenty of fantasy value while getting the opportunity to play.
• 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (43.4% E; 39% Y!) has returned to the lineup from a shoulder injury and tearing it up. In six games since his return, he's hitting .435 (10/23) with a 1.132 OPS and should be a mainstay in the middle of the Reds' potent offense with the occasional day off for rest.
• 3B Alberto Callaspo, LAA (51.7% E; 32% Y!) is another third baseman with value on waivers. Over his last 15 days, he's hitting .339 (19/56) with 11 RBI. He doesn't offer much power or speed but would fill in nicely if you are reeling from injuries at what's proving to be an even shallower third base position than it was on draft day.
• OF Roger Bernadina, WAS (2.2% E; 2% Y!) is the Nationals' starting center fielder and leadoff hitter and deserves to be owned in more leagues. He's now hitting .293 on the year with four stolen bases in his last 11 games. His 12.8 BB% has led to a nice .383 OBP. If the Nationals' offense could find some consistency, Bernadina could be a cheap source for runs scored, too.
• C Yadier Molina, STL (60.3% E; 55% Y!) has a 5x5 line of .323/16/3/18/1 and currently stands as the third-ranked catcher on ESPN's Player Rater after hitting .483 (14/29) with a 1.190 OPS over his last seven games. There's no reason to hold onto a multi-category killing catcher this deep into the season. You should be willing to play the hot hand if you missed out on the upper-tier options.
• OF John Jay, STL (1.1% E; 2% Y!) could see some additional playing time if Tony LaRussa continues get Albert Pujols starts at third base, going forward. His .322/8/3/11/1 line has been very under-utilized up until this point, thanks to the blazing start to the season Lance Berkman has had.
• OF Ryan Ludwick, SD (20.3% E; 17% Y!) has been on a tear over his last seven games, hitting .444 (12/27) with four home runs, 13 RBI and a .889 SLG. He may only be worth rostering on road trips, though (.177/6/4/11/0 at home; .280/13/4/17/1 away).
• RP Fernando Salas, STL (55.3% E; 39% Y!) is the latest Cardinals' reliever to get a chance at some saves and has gone 4-for-4 in his opportunities. Mix in a 2-0 record, 1.02 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.15 K/9, 3.20 K/BB, .153 BAA and three Holds and you got yourself a very valuable reliever in nearly all formats.

Is it time to hit the panic button yet on some under-performing players and if so, which ones have you simply cut your losses with and moved on from already? I'd love to hear from you in the comments section.

Be sure to check back every day to see who won COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award.

Waiver Saviors: April's Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

My Waiver Saviors articles have always been about finding players available in a high percentage of leagues (I use ESPN and Yahoo! data because those are the two sites I personally prefer to play leagues in) and are having a statistical impact at the time the article is written.

This version of Waiver Saviors will look at a lineup of All-Star performances by players either not drafted or drafted near the end of most drafts this offseason. ESPN only tracks ADP (Average Draft Position) up to 260 picks and it looks like Yahoo! is in the same neighborhood. I believe a standard 5x5 10-team league uses 26 roster spots by default.

Here are your Fantasy Baseball Wavier Saviors All-Stars through the month of April:

• Catcher Russell Martin of the New York Yankees has shown he's fully recovered from his injury and reversed the downward trend his career was taking with the Dodgers. His 5x5 line of .293/13/6/19/2 makes him the #1-ranked catcher in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. He was virtually undrafted on ESPN (260) and while he did a little better on Yahoo! (213.5). Joe Mauer owners need to step away from the edge.
• First baseman Ike Davis of the New York Mets is showing owners he's worth all of the hype he received last season. His 5x5 line of .337/16/5/20 has him ranked 7th on ESPN and 8th on Yahoo! among such fantasy heavyweights as Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. All this from an ESPN ADP of 210.2 on ESPN and 229.2 on Yahoo!
• Second baseman Darwin Barney of the Chicago Cubs has secured the majority of the playing time with his 5x5 line of .326/15/1/14/1, after being virtually undrafted in all formats. Jeff Baker is still in the mix for playing time, so keep an eye on things if Barney falters and Baker takes advantage of additional at-bats.
• Third baseman Placido Polanco of the Philadelphia Phillies is healthy again and thriving as a fantasy baseball hitting machine. His 41 hits in just 26 games led to a 5x5 line of .398/18/2/19/3 from a player with an ADP of 203.3 on ESPN and 229.5 on Yahoo!
• Shortstop Jed Lowrie of the Boston Red Sox is proving he deserves to be in the mix for at-bats, having already made an appearance at all four infield positions, by producing a "legendary" 5x5 line of .368/13/3/12/0 in April.
• Outfielder Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals was considered by most to be on the downside of his career but has proved everyone wrong by opening the season with a 5x5 line of .393/23/8/22/0. Could he return to the player that has averaged 33 home runs and 110 RBI per 162 games played over his 13 year career? Current fantasy owners sure hope so.
• Outfielder Jeff Francoeur of the Kansas City Royals has regained some of his 2005-2007 lightning that made him a fantasy-relevant player breaking in with the Braves. Both he and the Royals were the butt of many offseason-signing jokes but who's laughing at his 5x5 line of .314/16/5/20/3 now?
• Outfielder Alfonso Soriano of the Chicago Cubs is tied for the major league lead in home runs with 10. Let that soak in for a moment as you look at the entire 5x5 line of .258/15/10/20/0 he was able to put up in April. His average and the fact that he's not stealing bases are both negatives but, for a player with an ADP of 207.8 on ESPN and 206.6 on Yahoo!, the risk versus reward factor is proving to be low at this point. Plus if he totally tanks it from this point on, very few owners will feel bad about dropping him to waivers.

This All-Star team deserves a place for two additional stars:

• Outfielder Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals has gone from highly touted rookie to fantasy baseball bust to roto-relevant in just five seasons in the big leagues. His early 5x5 line of .339/20/2/19/2 has ranked inside the top-20 on ESPN (17th) and Yahoo! (19th), thanks to a recent 19-game hitting streak.
• Outfielder Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays became a "legend" too when called upon to fill in for the retirement-bound Manny Ramirez. A recent 0-17 streak brought his 5x5 line down to .289/17/1/8/10, but quick reacting fantasy owners grabbing him off waivers aren't complaining...yet. It will be interesting to see what his numbers look like after the month of May is over.

No All-Star team would be complete without some pitchers, so here are a few that have dominated out of virtually nowhere:

• Starting pitcher Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals went from undrafted to a must-own with a 4-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP start to the season.
• Starting pitcher James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has provided owners that drafted him in ESPN (203.9) and Yahoo! (225.2) leagues plenty to smile about by going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 46.1 innings pitched.
• Rookie starting pitcher Michael Pineda of the Seattle Mariners has started of his career with five straight quality starts and a 4-1 record, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings. His ADP of 225.1 on ESPN and 237.4 on Yahoo! prove there were some very savvy owners grabbing him in the last few rounds of drafts.
• Starting pitcher Justin Masterson of the Cleveland Indians went 5-0 in April with five quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and seems ready to live up to the hype Red Sox fans witnessed back in 2008.
• Relief pitcher Brandon League of the Seattle Mariners has stepped in brilliantly for the injured David Aardsma as closer, going 7-for-7 in saves with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Could a closer controversy be brewing? It will be interesting to watch what develops as Aardsma is due back soon.
•  Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth of the Tampa Bay Rays has been given the first chance to be the team's closer and has done a good job, saving his first five chances before blowing a save on the last day of April. With young arms Joel Peralta and Jake McGee and an injured J.P. Howell due back soon, you wonder how much longer Farnsworth will get the call to close games.

So there are your April 2010 Waiver Saviors All-Stars. What players were you able to grab off waivers in your leagues who've made the most difference to your success in April? Are you daily or weekly change leagues? Which do you prefer?

Did You Know?: April 29th, 2011

If you weren't already aware, know this. I am a box score guy. I love the simplicity of the story it tells with numbers. I'm also excited about all of the new baseball statistics that seem to pop up yearly and even though I'm a little late to the game in understanding their utmost importance in using them when evaluating fantasy baseball players, it doesn't mean that I'm not paying attention. I hope to incorporate more of them into my analysis as I see fit. Stay tuned.

Now on to some statistics which you may not be aware of nearly a full month into the season in the latest installment of Did You Know?:

• Adam Dunn has just two home runs and 10 RBI in 19 games this season, while Ben Zobrist accomplished those numbers in yesterday's doubleheader.
• Names I did not expect to see in the top 10 in Total Bases this early in the season: Lance Berkman (1st), Jeff Francoeur (tied 6th) and Ike Davis (tied 9th).
• Aren't stolen base guys supposed to be stealing bases? Juan Pierre has five steals and has been caught six times. Brett Gardner has four steals and has been caught three times. Chone Figgins has three steals and three caught stealings.
• Josh Johnson has allowed just 13 hits in 34 innings pitched. Batters are "hitting" .116 off of him this season.
• Austin Jackson is hitting just .167 (16/96) and has nearly twice the number of K's (31) as hits (16).
• Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .284 with a .303 BABIP with zero walks in 95 at-bats. He must like his own chances when swinging the bat. Hopefully you don't own him in an OBP league.
• Ryan Dempster has allowed 33 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. His ERA of 9.58 is higher than his K/9 ratio of 8.42.
• At age 37, Johnny Damon is on pace for 130 RBI in just 136 games played (20 RBI in 21 of Rays first 35 games). Don't forget about 26 HR/26 SB pace, too.
• Jorge Posada and Russell Martin have each hit six home runs in exactly 69 at-bats this season. Martin is batting .290 compared to Posada's .130 average.
• Huston Street leads the majors with nine saves and is on pace for 63 total.
• Matt Garza has 41 K's in just 30.2 innings pitched for a staggering 12.03 K/9 ratio yet he's 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA and an ugly WHIP of 1.47.

Are there some surprising statistics floating around out there already that have you scrambling to acquire or drop a player? If so, share them with the group, please. We all have a right to know.

Waiver Saviors: April 27th, 2011

Waiver Saviors will be a semi-regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process.

Here are some players having a hot week worth taking a long look at for the short and long term, depending on your league type, too:

• OF Peter Bourjos, LAA (11.1% ESPN owned; 22% Yahoo! owned) has gone 9/23 (.391 BA; 1.112 OPS) over the last week with no home runs (four extra-base hits for 16 total bases), four runs, an RBI and a stolen base. For the season, his 5x5 line is now at .321/11/2/9/2 and very worthy of an outfield slot in all leagues except the shallow ones.
• OF Melky Cabrera, KC (21.9% E; 14% Y!) has gone 10/26 (.385 BA; 1.141 OPS) over the last week with one home run (five extra-base hits for 18 total bases), five RBI, four runs and a stolen base. His season's 5x5 line of .301/15/2/14/2 has to be taken seriously soon by fantasy owners or at least while he and the Royals are firing on all cylinders.
• OF Ryan Ludwick, SD (2.2% E; 6% Y!) has gone 11/34 (.324 BA; 1.067 OPS) over the last week with  three home runs (seven extra-base hits for 24 total bases), five RBI and four runs scored. He's 5x5 line of .209/12/4/11/1 is getting better but may only have value as a spot starter in deeper mixed leagues or very shallow NL-only ones. An encouraging sign is that three of his four home runs have come at PETCO but that unfortunately comes along with a .157 batting average at home, too.
• OF Ben Francisco, PHI (26.8% E; 20% Y!) has gone 8/26 (.308 BA; .960 OPS) over the last week with two home runs (three extra-base hits for 16 total bases), six RBI and three runs scored. He seems to have settled back in as the Phillies' everyday right fielder and has produced a season's 5x5 line of .262/10/4/14/1, with is becoming more ownable in most league formats.
• 2B/SS Darwin Barney, CHC (41% E; 24% Y!) has gone 12/34 (.353 BA; .824 OPS) over the last week with one home run (two extra-base hits for 16 total bases), eight RBI, five runs and one stolen base. His 5x5 line of .329/13/1/13/1 makes him a great find for a MI slot in deeper leagues and a must-own in NL-only formats. He should continue to get the majority of starts at second base and hit out of the number two hole.
• SS Erick Aybar, LAA (67.3% E; 16% Y!) has gone 9/28 (.321 BA; .679 OPS) over the last week. He's started at shortstop the last seven games and stolen two bases. He won't contribute much to your fantasy team unless he continues to hit for average and steal bases. Even then, his value is limited to a spot start or MI position in the deepest of leagues.
• OF Kosuke Fukudome, CHC (2.9% E; 4% Y!) has gone 14/23 (.609 BA; 1.292 OPS) over the last week but that was helped by 5-for-5 and 4-for-7 performances. He's only starting against right-handed pitchers, so he may only be worth rostering to play in favorable match ups.
• 1B Brett Wallace, HOU (8.3% E; 10% Y!) has gone 11/21 (.524 BA; 1.260 OPS) over the last week with no home runs (four extra-base hits for 15 total bases), two RBI and five runs scored. He doesn't have the power numbers (1 HR this season) to be a primary option at first base but his overall 5x5 line of .347/14/1/8/0 makes him a target as a CI or IF candidate on deeper leagues.
• OF Carlos Gomez, MIL (15.3% E; 6% Y!) has gone 10/27 (.370 BA; .861 OPS) over the last week with one home run (one extra-base hit for 13 total bases), four RBI, five runs and a stolen base. Maybe he's feeling the pressure of Nyjer Morgan being brought in and Corey Hart coming off the DL? Keep an eye on his playing time if you plan to pick him up.

Starting pitchers are harder to grab off waivers, with most only have four or five starts to show their stuff. Keep an eye on all of the "pitch and ditch" type articles regarding streaming to see if there's a gem or too hiding in there. Relief pitchers in the mix for saves should be grabbed now and dumped later if things don't pan out. You'll probably miss out if your league is worth anything when it comes to scavenging for saves.

Fun With Player Projections

With three full weeks of games in the books to start the 2011 season, it's time to start looking at some of the statistics players are putting up and determining what's true or false about what we are seeing. ESPN Player Profile pages have a fun "projected" line worth looking at but have little value in truly projecting the season's outcomes with such as small sample size:

• SS Starlin Castro, CHC leads the majors with 35 hits in 21 games. At his current pace, he projects to collect 270 hits, breaking Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 record of 262. It's doubtful Castro gets anywhere near the record but if you wound up with him on your roster(s) rather than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, you're not in a position to complain.
• 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR is tied for the major league lead with seven home runs, has scored 19 runs and walked 19 times in just 18 games this season. At his current pace, he projects to hit 54 home runs (sound familiar?), score 147 runs and walk 147 times. None of these numbers put him in the stratosphere of "record-breaking" but they should be putting the talk of his 2010 simply being a fluke to rest.
• 1B Prince Fielder, MIL leads the majors with 22 RBI in his first 21 games this season. At his current pace, he'd drive in 170 runs in 162 games played. It's unlikely he'll keep up this pace but he could be back in line with his own 2009, when he drove in 141 runs in 162 games. Either way, his owners have to be pleased with his hot start to 2011.
• OF Sam Fuld, TB has an unlikely 27 hits and 10 stolen bases in 20 games this season. At his current pace, Fuld will accumulate 199 hits and 74 steals. Could 175 hits and 40 stolen bases be that unrealistic for a player that's proving he deserves every opportunity to be in the lineup?
• OF/DH Bobby Abreu,  may only be hitting .240 but he's tied for the major league lead with 19 walks for a robust .394 OBP. At his current pace, that walk rate would put him at 140 for the season. He has a career .400 OBP and has walked over 120 times in a season twice, so this pace isn't all that unheard of for the disciplined Abreu.
• OF Matt Kemp, LAD is doing all he can to make fantasy owners forget about his 2010 season by starting off 2011 with this insane 5x5 line: .402/16/5/17/8. At his current pace, he's looking at a season's ending line of .402/127/35/127/56 and a run at the Triple Crown. There's no way he hits anywhere near .400 but he looks like a man on a mission to go 40/40. If you passed on Kemp because you were burned by him in 2010, there's always 2012.
• OF Dexter Fowler, COL is unfortunately tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with 27 but has offset that with 14 walks and a .381 OBP. At his current pace, Fowler would strike out 208 times and walk 108.
• OF Juan Pierre, CHW is known for his stolen base prowess in fantasy baseball but he already has been caught stealing five times to go along with his five stolen bases. At his current pace, Pierre would be looking at 37 SB and 37 CS. Now, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get caught stealing that often but you may start wondering if he's losing a step at age 33. And without his speed, Pierre's not much of a fantasy option.
• SP Jered Weaver, LAA is 5-0 with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over his first five starts. At his current pace, Weaver projects to start 39 games and strike out 301 batters in 278.2 innings pitched. Those just aren't realistic numbers in today's game but if he keeps his current 9.6 K/9 and matches his innings pitched from 2010 (224.1), he'd probably wind up leading the majors in strikeouts again in 2011 with 241.
• CL Mariano Rivera, NYY has appeared in 11 of the Yankees first 18 games and saved seven of their 12 wins. At his current pace, Rivera would appear in 99 games and finish the season with 63 saves. He's only averaging 64.2 appearances over the last five seasons, so he should slow down once the rest of the Yankee pen settles into their roles. I'd bet Rivera's a lock for his usual 35-45 saves again this year.

The goal of this exercise is to point out not getting too crazy over such a small sample of statistics, positively or negatively. Proven stars will more than likely return to levels that proven stars are used to performing at, statistically speaking. Now, that doesn't mean a top player can't have a down year (see Matt Kemp's 2010) but at least give everyone more than 1/8th of the overall schedule to prove their values to your fantasy baseball roster(s).

Which players are you buying are for real and what numbers are you predicting for them that might surprise most? Which players are you afraid are going to have an off or down year and are ready to cut ties with (drop or trade)? Please use the comments section below to get the conversation started.