Line of the Day: Jason Kipnis: August 10th, 2011

Jason Kipnis went 5-for-5 with a double, a home run, three RBI and four runs scored to power the Cleveland Indians to a 10-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers in Ubaldo Jimenez's home debut. Kipnis now has six home runs, the first six of his career, over his last 10 games. (video recap)

Line: 5 AB | 4 R | 5 H | 3 RBI; 2B | HR

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Kipnis started slow (2-for-17 in his first six games) but has been on fire over his last 10 games. He's gone 16-for-44 (.364 BA) with three doubles, six home runs, 10 RBI and 13 runs scored and a .417 OBP and a .841 SLG. Those numbers are good enough to rank him second overall for fantasy second basemen over the last 15 days behind only Dan Uggla, who's currently riding a 31-game hitting streak.

You'd better move quickly to the waiver wire if you need second base or middle infielder help because his ownership numbers are on the rise! He's now owned in 58.6% of ESPN leagues, 27% of Yahoo! leagues and 56% of CBS leagues.

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Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition: August 5th, 2011

Welcome back! Apologies for the lateness of the article... Things outside of COSFBA have been a little hectic lately and I've been somewhat under the weather myself (damn heat wave). I'll endeavor to keep things as close to normal as possible here, though likely shorter.

There's been very little movement Waiver Wire-wise with the back end of the 'pens since the first of the month. The Mike Adams trade was the biggest one and it did shake up the Padres' bullpen.  However, who knows what the next few weeks will hold.

Let's have a review of last week's names:

• Brian Wilson only appeared in two games over the last week, due to blow-outs both by and against the Giants. He picked up a save and a loss in 1.1 innings, giving up a run on three hits while walking one and striking out two. Friday's game was the first game he allowed a run since before the All-Star Break, so we shouldn't read anything more into it than a closer having an off night.
• Adams was shuttled off from the San Diego Padres to the Texas Rangers. While it's hard to judge a trade this early, especially across leagues, here's the splits: in his last appearance with the Padres, he pitched an inning allowing a hit and a strikeout. He got the hold in that game. In his first appearance with the Rangers, he pitched an inning allowing a run and two hits, getting a punchout and allowing a walk. Like with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, it's going to be hard to see immediate impact when coming from the opposite league. Once he has time to adjust (3-to-4 weeks, in my opinion), he should be back to near-dominance.
• Antonio Bastardo wound up in four games in the last week, winning two and picking up two holds. He only gave up a run on three hits in 3.1 innings, fanning four. He did allow a longball in last night's 8-6 win over Colorado, but such a thing is a rarity this season (he's only allowed three on the season). His and Ryan Madson's work are pivotal to keep Philly atop the NL East.
• Henry Rodriguez worked in a little longer relief last week, logging 4.1 innings in two games. He gave up a run on a hit, walking one and striking out five. There haven't been any clear or consistent signs of his performances improving; flashes here and there. There might be continued hope for him, but right now all signs point to not much improvement.

 Now, let's get some names out there for this week:

• "Doing Work" - J.J. Putz (ARI): J.J. has been having a solid season as the D-Backs closer, helping keep them within a game of the Division-leading (and World Champion) Giants. His last week reads dominantly: 2.2 innings pitched in three appearances, zero runs on three hits with a walk. He grabbed three saves, running his season total to 25. He is coming off the DL after to a right elbow injury, and isn't showing any ill-effects aside from a slight drop in fastball velocity (1 MPH) which right now could be contributed to 'rust'. The D-Backs had no problems throwing him in three straight games, but will likely rest him for a bit and let Arizona's solid set-up man David Hernandez close as needed. Expect that trend to continue for likely the next month as Putz works his arm (and elbow) back to shape and normal routine. J.J. will still be good for late innings, and will be relied upon for the high-leverage situations as the hunt for the Playoffs builds to a climax.
• "Unsung Hero" - Heath Bell (SD): While the Padres are pretty well out of the hunt for the Playoffs this year, you wouldn't know it looking at Heath. 30+ saves with a sub-2.50 ERA, hitters batting .210 against him. Last week's line reads brilliantly as well: three games, three innings, no runs, one hit, three punchouts. Most of this with the trade winds swirling around him and Mike Adams (who was the eventual 'odd man out'), and in the midst of a relatively dreadful San Diego season. The Padres have been playing a little better lately than their record indicates, and Buddy Black is not a manager to "mail-in" a season, so expect Heath to get plenty of work in for the rest of the year. He'll make it all count, even though it may be way too late to bail out the leaky boat of the '11 San Diego Padres season.
• "Heart-Attack Award" - Jason Isringhausen (NYM): Izzy got roughed up over his last week. He appeared in four games, four innings pitched. He allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and saved two games. He's up to 298 saves on his career, and I will stand behind him getting #300 on a Mets uniform (there were some trade winds swirling for him, and some still say he might still move over the Waiver Wire). However, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. New York is still on the outside edge of a Wild-Card spot, and will be playing like it. Izzy's in line to log more innings in a season than he has since his '07 Cardinals campaign, and it's going to wear on his arm pretty good at this point. The Mets seem to be riding Izzy for all he's worth, and I'm looking to see a fade within the next month and a half. Whether they stick it out with Izzy, or use a fresher (and younger) Bobby Parnell for the stretch run, will be decided by the standings.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Rex Brothers (COL):The Colorado Rockies setup man has been having a first year in the Big Leagues to... well... remember, but probably not for the reasons he'd want to. Up until the last week, he was running along pretty well. But then this happened: four appearances, three innings, six runs, five hits, two walks, six Ks. That equals out to two losses and a blown save. While there's pretty much nothing to go on (3 years of Minors work), Rex is next-in-line for the closer role, apparently by his merits. He's on-pace to pitch more innings than he has in pretty much any level of the Minors. Brothers could either be reduced in workload, or shut down completely because of it. It's extremely difficult to predict future performance on a rookie, so I would have to say that Rex is a "wait til next year" candidate and find your holds elsewhere.

Here's hoping for a return to normal next week!

Fantasy Baseball Investment Market: It's a Sellers Market!

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians
Why would you move your ace for prospects? Only reason it makes sense is that you are trying to sell high. I've been saying all season long that Ubaldo is not the same pitcher he was before the All-Star break last season. Yes, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season but the same can be said of any starting pitcher in the game. If you can find a manager who feels that a change of scenery is just what Jimenez needs to get back on track…take advantage. There is nothing suggesting the Ubaldo of old is coming back soon, if ever. Colorado was smart to unload him while he still held value. You'd be smart to do the same.

SELL Ubaldo has been showing signs of wear of tear since last season. His velocity has been notably down all of 2011. I still maintain there is an injury hiding somewhere. Unfortantely for Cleveland, it still hasn't presented itself.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
"The Freak" has traditionally had terrible Augusts but his performances leading up to the month have usually been money in the bank. This season, he's starting to show signs of weakness.

The first red flag is his walk rates have increased in each of the past three seasons:
2009 2.72 BB9 / 7.5 BB%
2010 3.22 BB9 / 8.5 BB%
2011 3.56 BB9 / 9.6 BB%

In addition, his K/9 (still at elite levels) are trending downward:
2009 10.42
2010 9.79
2011 9.64

Anytime I see pitcher with trends opposite of what I want to see, I get nervous. If I see that pitcher's bottom line being affected by the aforementioned, I start to panic. Lincecum already has nine losses this season. He had ten losses last season and only seven losses the year before. If you can unload him based on name value alone, do it. If you're in a keeper league, I still suggest the same course of action.

SELL! The leak in the hull is still small enough that many probably haven't noticed yet. This ship is going down.

Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox
You don't need me to tell you Crawford has been a major bust this season. You don't need me to tell you that Crawford has always had trouble with left-handed pitching. Did you know: Fenway has generally provided major trouble for left-handed hitters in the past? He left his comfy situation in Tropicana for a payday with a chance at winning it all with Boston. He may get his ring but he won't be the reason why the Red Sox win one.

2009 672PA / 15HR / 60SB / .305AVG / .816OPS
2010 663PA / 19HR / 47SB / .307AVG / .851OPS
2011 338PA / 7HR / 12SB / .245AVG / .659OPS

In 2011, he's hitting .139 vs LHP / .292 vs RHP and .250 Home / .238 Away
In 2010, he hit .254 vs LHP / .329 vs RHP and .295 Home / .311 Away
In 2009, he hit .269 vs LHP / .322 vs RHP and .295 Home / .315 Away

This is a guy whose value lies not only in his speed but in his ability to hit for power. If you take away his 20 HR potential and .800+ OPS, he's merely a high priced Michael Bourn. Take away his speed and he's practically worthless in fantasy. In some circles, his name value and previous draft position may still hold weight. If this is the case and you can sell him fifty-cents on the dollar, you should do it. Yes, he was slightly injured some this season but his struggles began long before we started to hear any excuses for poor performance. This is not a player who is going to rebound anytime soon.

2011 (by month)
March/April 1 HR / 4 SB / .155 BA
May 3 HR / 3 SB / .301 BA
June 2 HR / 1 SB / .278 BA
July 0 HR / 4 SB / .250 BA
August 1 HR / 0 SB / .250 BA

SELL! A speed/power guy with limited power and no speed who can't hit lefties and plays in a lefty killing park is worth what to you? Get rid of him.

Have questions, comments or suggestions for future articles? Please use the comments section below or hit me up on Twitter @SheriffStathead.

Line of the Day: Asdrubal Cabrera: August 1st, 2011

Asdrubal Cabrera went 3-for-5 with two home runs and four RBI and led the Cleveland Indians to a 9-6 victory over the Boston Red Sox. It was the second multi-homer game of his career.  (video recap)

Line: 5 AB | 3 R | 3 H | 4 RBI; 2 HR

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Prior to the 2011 season, Cabrera had 18 career home runs in 1610 plate appearances (1 HR/89.4 PA). He has now has 19 home runs in 465 plate appearances this season (1 HR/24.5 PA). He leads the team in home runs, RBI (65) and batting average (.293).

His 6.0 BB%, 16.8 K% and .320 BABIP are all close enough to his career averages, as well as his LD%, GB% and FB%. Simply put, more fly balls are being hit for home runs than they were at any point prior to this season (14.8% HR/FB in 2011 compared to a previous career-high of 6.7% in 2008).

Question: Is this the kind of production we should expect from Cabrera going forward or is this season simply an anomaly ?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Special Trade Recap: Fukudome to Cleveland

As the local Cleveland Indians apologist, I was asked to give my slant on the trade that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Tribe today. Now this is obviously outside of my "area of expertise", being the late-inning relief guy here. But I think getting out of one's element every once in a while isn't necessarily a bad thing.

So here goes.

The Details: Chicago Cubs OF Kosuke Fukudome was sent to the Indians yesterday for two minor league players: OF Abner Abreu (Class A Kinston) and RH RP Carlton Smith (Class AAA Columbus). Fukudome, who has $4.7 million left on his contract for 2011, will have all but $775,000 of it picked up by the Cubs. Fukudome is in the last year of his contract and is potentially worth free-agent compensation this coming offseason. This means if the Indians offer Fukudome arbitration and he declines in favor of free agency, he would qualify as a Type B free agent (and would be worth one compensatory pick in '12). To make room on the 40-man roster, OF Travis Buck was designated for assignment.

The Breakdown: Fukudome was reasonably solid in the lead-off spot for the Cubs, contributing a .275 BA / .374 OBP / .742 OPS. The 13 RBIs is a little misleading, as he hit lead-off for a National League team. He's an extremely patient hitter, sporting an average of 4.33 pitches / AB this year. While he's not going to impress with his power (3 HR this season, 13 HRs tops in his MLB career, and a .141 ISO for his MLB career leans towards him being naturally light on power), his bat-handling is relatively good (.330 BAbip, 5-for-5 in sac bunts, only 2 GIDP, and a 5.1 AB/K ratio). He has plus speed (2-for-4 in steals this year, 27-for-51 on his MLB career), and is a flexible outfielder (he's played both RF and CF in three of the four years of his career).

The Positives:

• Fukudome is stats-wise instantly the best outfielder on the Indians not named Michael Brantley. With Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo on the shelf for at least the next month (Choo is hopeful for mid-August, but that should be taken with a grain of salt), the Tribe has been platooning Travis Buck, Austin Kearns, Ezequiel Carrera, and Shelley Duncan (currently in AAA Columbus)... We'll forget that little "experiment" with Luis Valbuena in the outfield. Both Sizemore and Choo were picking up their games (they were a combined 20-for-63 with ten walks and 20 RBIs in their last ten games played) before they were hurt, so their losses were at the worst time possible. Since the All-Star Break, the platoon mentioned above (minus Duncan, who had not played since July 8th and was sent back down to Columbus July 17th) has gone 14-for-73 (.192) with 12 walks and five RBIs. Fukudome by himself went 9-for-35 (.257) with four walks and an RBI. Travis Buck was by far the weakest link of the platoon (2-for-24, 2 BB, 2 RBI), and he was designated for assignment to get Fukudome a spot on the 40-man roster.
• Fukudome gives the Indians a legitimate contact bat that is sorely needed. How sorely? In the 13 games (5-8 record) since the All-Star Break, the Indians are dead last in the AL in BA (.216) and OBP (.285), second-to-last in hits (91) and RBIs (43), and third-to-last in runs (46). This year, Fukudome is batting .311 with RISP, with an impressive OPS of .982, and a .394 BAbip. That's actually an improvement on his solid career marks (.274 / .871 / .306). And while his bat isn't a power right-handed bat like the Indians fans insist they need, it's a marked improvement over what they have available.

The Negatives:

• The biggest (and only real) negative can be distilled down to two words. Two simple words make all of the above stats on Fukudome pale instantly: League Change. All of the numbers are including NL pitching, whom he's dealt with for the last 4 years. With this lovely invention of Interleague Play, we can see how he's stack up against the pitchers of the AL. The stats are not-so-hot. In 53 games (200 PA) against the AL in his career, he's batting .217, sporting an OPS of .594, but does have a .282 BAbip. He's hit a home run, driven in eight... But his K/BB ratio is just a touch over 2.00 (43 Ks, 21 BBs).
• He's going to be coming into a situation with the Indians where he's going to be asked to produce pretty much immediately. He's made a more drastic change of scenery before, coming from the Chunichi Dragons of the Japan Central League to join the Cubs in '08 (a campaign that saw him as an All-Star Starter and in the running for the Rookie of the Year). This time, he at least has some familiarity with the pitching coming in, and might be able to bring the professionalism and solid skillset to bear quickly.

The Verdict: In my mind, we won't know the full effect of this trade for about 2-3 weeks. Fukudome will need an adjustment period to full-time AL pitching staffs, but he has solid experience and a good eye to back him up. I feel he'll hit a good stride in September, producing near his career averages in the important categories. He is a low-risk, medium-reward move that doesn't have the "Wow!" factor of a Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants. However, he is one of the pieces that the Indians needed to fill the gaping holes of Sizemore and Choo.

I feel that the Indians aren't done making moves, but this first one is a good step in the right direction.

Happy Birthday To Me! Trade Deadline Edition

Every year, Major League Baseball delivers me the best birthday presents ever...blockbuster trades. You see, I have the extreme pleasure of being a baseball/fantasy baseball/Yankees fan whose birthday falls on July 30th...the eve of the Trade Deadline. And it looks like my presents are starting to roll in early this year.

The Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaukee trade on July 13th came a couple of weeks early, you know, like the card from your aunt or grandmother that includes a $5 bill, even though you're turning 40 and five dollars can barely buy you a foofoo, non-fat, mocha-choca latte you've come to love over the past few years of your life. Ok, I think I've said too much about that.

This trade did give fantasy baseball GMs plenty to talk about, too. What would K-Rod's role be with the Brewers and how would that effect John Axford's role as their current closer. Who would close for the Mets? Would it be the young fire-baller, Bobby Parnell or the gritty veteran, Jason Isringhausen? I'd say this kind of trade was just the sort of thing to get me excited for the weeks ahead.

Fast forward to July 27th and you've got the kind of present I'm talking about for a 40th birthday. It's like the wife just handed me the "emergency" credit card and told me to go to
Best Buy to by myself something pretty. And by pretty, I assume she meant something with the letters HDTV in it.

Chicago White Sox trade Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart. Then the St. Louis Cardinals trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters to the Toronto Blue Jays for the aforementioned Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski and Corey Patterson. I haven't seen that kind of hot, three-way action since the last time I unexpectedly got a free preview weekend of Cinemax! My computer Twitter'ed all over itself. The fantasy baseball repercussions of trades of this magnitude are still being felt across the airwaves of talk radio and in 140-characters-or-less blurbs.

And the day wasn't even done delivering me presents, yet. News of the Carlos Beltran-to-SF Giants-for-prospect(s) trade had everyone on Twitter speculating for hours until it was announced the uber-prospect was Zack Wheeler. Quick! Get me some Gatorade, caffeine and oysters. This could be a long and exciting day.

Late news broke of a Wil Nieves-to Atlanta trade as a result of the Braves having to put All-Star catcher Brian McCann on the DL. Come on. Really? This kind of trade is the equivalent of receiving a birthday card from your boss. You both know he didn't want to but his secretary made him do it anyway. Thanks for nothing, boss man. At least include a gift card next year.

Thursday, July 28th, got us back into the spirit of gift giving for my birthday with a Kosuke Fukudome-to-Cleveland trade. There could be some positive benefits to this deal for Fukudome (.282 BA vs RHP) in deeper, mixed leagues and AL-only ones. I won't be sending a thank you card for this trade, though. I deserve better.

So here we sit, heading into what's expected to be a weekend filled with buyers buying, sellers selling and some teams leaving their fans wondering what the future holds for their home teams. As a life-long New York Yankees fan, I know there's a present or two headed my way. The only question is, "What's in the box?"

Warming Up In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 26th, 2011

Greetings and salutations!

This is likely to be a shorter article than usual this week; Outside-of-COSFBA considerations are taking precedence. However, I'm going to try and get as much goodness out with a few less words than normal. So with that out of the way, here's a quick review of last week's performers:

• Neftali Feliz saw only one game of work in the last week (yesterday). He gave up a hit and a walk in one inning in an absolute pummeling of Minnesota. Manager Ron Washington stated that the long layoff for Feliz wasn't by design, with an off-day and only one save opportunity cropping up (in the 6th on July 20th against the Angels). Feliz was working on the side during the stretch. It's interesting to note that Feliz had a six-day 'vacation' which included the All-Star Break last year, and was lights-out in his remaining performances. Could we be due for a repeat?
• Speaking of the Twins, closer Joe Nathan saw two games this past seven days. He allowed a run on two hits in two innings, striking out one. He was 2-for-2 in the save chances to give him a total of seven on the year. If the Twins have any chance of competing once more in the suddenly-clogged AL Central, Nathan will need to continue to be steady and solid in the back of the 'pen like he has been lately. He has the opportunity to show that the early season was just "knocking off the rust".
• Vinnie Pestano also worked two games and was roughed up for two runs on four hits, including a longball in last night's dramatic Indians comeback win against the Angels. He had only one strikeout in his two innings of work this past week. He blew the save last night on a 1-0 four-seamer Bobby Abreu promptly deposited in the right field seats. The recent streak of work for the "Bullpen Mafia" has been troubling, and I'm starting to wonder (like last week) if the number of innings is starting to wear on the young arms. Pestano and the rest need to right the ship if the Tribe is going to stay in competition.
• Kevin Gregg served his three-game suspension but did work two games against LA over the past week. He notched a save in two innings pitched, giving up two hits and two walks, but two strikeouts as well. It'll be interesting to see if the "cooling of his heels" helps his game any going forward.

 Now let's move forward with this week's guns:

• "Doing Work": Jonathan Papelbon (BOS) - Paps once more makes an appearance in the 'Pen, and this time it's on the "good" side of the ledger. Since giving up the solo run against the Rays, Paps has been dominant. Five innings of work has seen him allow a grand total of one hit. He's also notched three saves and five strikeouts. He's always had solid months of July and August in his career, notching career ERAs under 2.25 each month (2.24 in July, 1.92 in August), WHIPs under 1.100 (0.980 / 1.067), OPSs under .585 (.566 / .584) and BABIPs under .300 (.262 / .293). Careerwise, his FIP has actually been worst in the month of June (3.26), steadily dropping in July (2.91) and even more dramatically in August (2.27). In my opinion, Paps has turned the corner with the turn of the calendar month. The fact that he has full ownership in ESPN leagues shows that the rest of the fantasy owners are keeping the faith in Paps and the Red Sox fight in the AL East race.
• "Unsung Hero": Grant Balfour (OAK) - The Athletics set-up man has been having a stellar campaign, and the last seven days have been no exception. In three outings (3.1 innings total), Balfour is 3-for-3 in holds (18 on the season), giving up three hits, walking one and fanning one. The 2.03 ERA he's accumulated on the year is the second best in his career (his 1.54 ERA with the '08 Rays the only one better). His FIP overall this year (3.11) is better than his career average (3.42), and there are other numbers that are better this year versus his career averages (.237 BAbip vs. .281, 2.56 K/BB ratio vs. 2.38, 1.05 WHIP vs. 1.26, .541 OPS vs. .647). He's coming off of a strained right oblique, and has shown no lingering or ill effects. The fact that he's not seemingly well-known (1.6% ESPN league ownership, only up 0.3% from last week) means he might be more of a depth league pick. However, he's well worth the grab even in your more standard leagues if he's available.
• "Heart Attack Award": Andrew Bailey (OAK) - Bailey's last seven days haven't been horrible. He's given up one run on two hits in three innings, walking three and striking out five. While grabbing saves in each of those appearances, allowing base runners is never a good sign. His FIP throughout his career has exceeded his ERA (2.44 FIP vs. 2.25 ERA this season alone, a more dramatic 2.96 vs. 1.47 last season). Interestingly, he's been throwing more fastballs than ever in his career (78.2% vs. a 65.0% career average), but with a one-MPH drop in average speed. It might not be much of a change, but combine that with a similar drop across the board with all his pitches, and you start to wonder if there might be an issue with Bailey's mechanics. Be it an actual flaw or hitch in his delivery, or perhaps wear and tear, there could be cause for future concern. This isn't enough for me to say to stay away from Andrew; I'm no expert in the medical sciences or the 'sciences' of pitching. However, it's safe to say there's something more here than what's on the surface. Be wary, and only grab Bailey for depth. I have a feeling that Oakland, being out of the race as far as they are, may begin relying on the above-mentioned Balfour for saves sooner rather than later.
• "ZOMBIE!": Jordan Walden (LAA) - The Angel's All-Star closer has been having a good season, but his recent outings have been a mixed bag. Last night, he blew a save (and got the loss) by giving up two runs on two hits (one of which was a game-tying double by Travis Hafner! Sorry, boss.), along with a walk and a strikeout. In the last week, those are the only runs he's given up. However, since June 22, he's gone 2-2, 6/10 saves, five runs, nine hits, three walks, and six strikeouts. This 'wilting under the pressure' during the Angels' attempt to keep up with the Rangers. During the last three months of the season in his (albeit short) career, his WHIPs (1.33 and 1.30), BABIPs (.429 and .333), and BB/9 ratio (3.00 and 4.38) are elevated. While this may be nothing, the fact that it's happening to a closer (whose entire purpose is to 'seal the deal' under pressure) on a team competing for a playoff spot against the AL Champions really brings into question the mental character of Walden in my mind. I can't cry 'fire sale' on him in your leagues, but I firmly believe that his recent performances are a prelude to a full-blown meltdown as the Angels continue to try to hang in the pennant race.

While there's been no major trade fires burning as of yet, we continue to keep an eye on things. We'll report what we find, and I'll have the NL side of the house on Thursday.

Comments below, or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

In The Sabermetric Spotlight: What a Relief

I'm sorry. I take full responsibility for Adrian Beltre's injury. The power of the Spotlight is a difficult one to control, and I am only beginning to learn to harness it's power.

Today, I'd like to switch things up a bit. The Spotlight will feature three individuals, and you're about to find out why. Today, we shine The Sabermetric Spotlight on...

Birds of a feather

The Orioles bullpen hasn't been a stable source of saves in a long time. The last 4 Orioles to earn 30+ saves in a season are guys by the name of George Sherrill (31 in 2008), Chris Ray (33 in 2006), B.J. Ryan (36 in 2005) and Jorge Julio (36 in 2003). Not exactly names that would strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters.

Take a look at the below table. One pitcher is obviously having a better year, but isn't closing, so what gives?


Oriole #1 is obviously the ever-stressful Kevin Gregg, but who is behind door #2? That would be none other than Koji Uehara, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any reliever in the league.

I like to think that I would make a better manager than most of the managers currently out there, but seriously, the stats speak for themselves. The fact that Uehara isn't closing for this team is ridiculous. Not only are all of his numbers miles better than Gregg's, but his peripherals back it up. Uehara has the best xFIP (shown to have the highest correlation with future performance of all the pitching metrics) of any Orioles pitcher, and it's not even close. Uehara's xFIP of 2.35 is more than half that of Gregg's at 4.81. I'm a big Buck Showalter fan, but come on, enough is enough.

Of pitchers with more than 30 IP, Uehara has the second highest LOB% (Left-on-base%) at a whipping 97.4%. That's only second to Nationals All-Star Tyler Clippard, who was very close to making this article.

Uehara's excellent ERA and WHIP, as well as mouth-watering strikeout rate (11.8 K/9), could make him one of the elite closers in the league, if only he were given the chance. It's been rumored that Gregg is on the trading block, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt. With minimal return, the Orioles can dump some salary and become a better team by moving Uehara into his well-earned closing role.

Most fantasy owners are starting to catch on, and he's probably owned in deeper leagues already, but I honestly feel, regardless of trade rumors, that he's worth a look in all formats.

Bullpen Mafia?

The Tribe has affectionately named their surprisingly good bullpen the Bullpen Mafia. I'm not sure if that's an attempt to make the bullpen appear more intimidating, but I will admit it's a catchy nickname.

Much like the Orioles above, the Indians bullpen hasn't been threatening in quite some time. The last 3 Tribe to toss 25+ saves were Joe Borowski (45 in 2007) and Bob Wickman (45 in 2005) and Danys Baez (25 in 2003). Not exactly a who's who of lights out closers.

The Indians are in nearly the same situation the Orioles are in, shown by the table below. It's obvious that Chris Perez is Indian #1, but you might be surprised at who is #2.

Are you stumped? I know that my fellow COSFBA contributor JCPronkFan48 probably has the answer, but can you figure out who it is?

Perhaps the most deserving to be the "don" is Vinnie Pestano, who makes a surprising appearance as out Indian #2. Look at the K's he had compared to the innings pitched, and try not to drool.

Much like the Orioles pen, Pestano is hands down having a better year than the closer that backs him up. Perhaps it's inexperience, but I'm really unsure as to why Pestano isn't given a chance to close the game more often, especially with how shaky Perez is at times.

One fact you might find interesting is that Pestano's xFIP of 2.26 is the 3rd lowest in the league, among qualifying relief pitchers. Who are the two in front of him? Sergio Romo and Craig Kimbrel. That's pretty good company to have if you ask me. Pestano's current xFIP is the lowest since baseball researchers started keeping track of xFIP. It's amazing that he's only owned in 1% of ESPN leagues.

The Tiger goes "Meow"

Finally rounding out today's article is the Tigers bullpen. Jose Valverde has been a great pickup for the Tigers, excelling in the closers role. But in 2011, there is another Tiger, who is having a far more impressive year...and also happens to have one of the coolest names ever. One last time, take a look at the below table.

Jose Valverde is Tiger #1, the current closer. Definitely not a bad season, but not as good a one might hope. So who is Tiger #2, having a stellar season himself, with no love in regards to getting save opportunities?

That's right, Al Alburquerque is our mystery contestant #2. Following suit with Uehara and Pestano, his strike-out rate makes me salivate.

Alburquerque has a team low 2.75 xFIP, lower than fellow Tiger and All-Star Justin Verlander, to go along with his K/9, and strong ERA and WHIP. He can help you in 3 categories right off the bat, and might get some save chances down the road.

One word of caution, Alburquerque is only 25 years old, and has never pitched more than 41 innings at any level, so the Tigers will likely tread lightly with him. However, with the Tigers in the think of a division race, they might lean on him more than they would otherwise.

Do you have a comment about the article? Do you have a suggestion for the next player featured In The Sabermetric Spotlight? Hit me up on twitter @SillyLittleGame or leave a comment below!

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 19th, 2011

Welcome back, faithful readers...

When we last left our intrepid AL setup men and closers, Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard were the studs of the week, and Jonathan Papelbon and Frank Francisco were the duds. Before we launch into this week's category winners (and in lieu of not having a K-Rod'esque deal to speak about), let's take a a look at how these gents performed over the last week:

• Soria appeared in one game this past week, notching a save in a KC 2-1 victory over the Twins. He faced five batters, giving up two hits. While not the kind of performance worthy of a dominant closer, Soria continues to be a bright spot for a Royals team that generally doesn't have much to cheer about.
• Bard has run his scoreless streak to 21.2 IP with two appearances totaling 2.1 IP post-All-Star Break. He grabbed another hold (his league-leading 22nd), fanning two, walking one, and allowing two hits. Bard continues to be solid deep-league material, and should (in my opinion) be considered high market value.
• Papelbon gave up one run on two hits in two innings pitched over his latest two appearances. He fanned two and claimed his 21st save of the year. Paps continues to give the BoSox fans their MLB daily allowance of cursing and sweating this season. But Paps being Paps, he should be relatively solid (while continuing to "excite") the rest of the campaign.
• Francisco was indeed moved back into the Jays' set-up role coming out of the All-Star Break, and has appeared in two games. In 2.1 IP, he allowed a hit, and struck out one. It's hard to say if he'll turn the corner once more, but racking up scoreless appearances for, say, the rest of this month? That couldn't hurt his chances to come back to the closer's role (currently held by Jon Rauch)

Now, for this week's performers:

• This week's pitcher that's "Doing Work" is Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been stupid good lately. Since taking one on the chin July 3rd against the Marlins (a game in which Mark Lowe blew the save opp and took the loss when a pickoff attempt failed, and Feliz allowed the last of Florida's 4 9th-inning runs), the Rangers have rattled off 11 straight wins. Feliz has been a large part of that. Since the Florida game, Feliz has given up a run on one hit in 5.1 IP, with a walk and four Ks and notching four saves. That includes three perfect outings this past week (2.1 IP) with three Ks and two saves. On the year, his surface numbers are good: 20-for-24 in saves, 2.97 ERA, 26 Ks in 36.1 IP, batters hitting .200 off him. With most things, however, there's a catch. His season numbers in most of the major categories are trending worse than his career averages, which leads me to believe that the advance scouts and batters are starting to figure him out in his second full season: ERA (2.97 in '11 vs 2.57 career), WHIP (1.183 vs 0.915), K/BB ratio (1.44 vs 3.09), GO/AO ratio (0.47 vs 0.58), and FIP (4.45 vs 3.25). While I'm not saying that he's someone to be wary of (he had a very off month of June, which could account for a lot of inflation), owners should be aware also that Feliz's name has been brought up in the trade rumor mills. My advice is to ride Neftali for what he's worth this year, keep a backup option (always wise advice all the same), and if you need to part with him, try to get good value based on overall numbers (plus the fact that he was the '10 Rookie of the Year) and not on a rocky month of June.
• The "Unsung Hero" of the week is the Twins' Joe Nathan. This year's been rough on both Nathan and the Twins in general. Minnesota's found themselves down near the bottom of the pack since the early season, being feasted upon by the injury bug; Nathan being one of the big names to go down for the Twinkies back in May with a right flexor strain. He wound up being out of the lineup for about a month; there was no reason to rush Nathan back, being a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. His first month and a half this season was forgettable, as the rust was obvious. But then the Twins started to pick up their pace and win games, the pack in the AL Central started to close, and Nathan came back in late June. In the 10 games since his return, he's been nothing short of stellar: 2-for-3 in saves, six holds, 9.1 IP, one run on four hits, zero walks, seven Ks. A lot of folks may have sold the farm on Nathan when he went on the DL (or earlier, fearing he wouldn't ever be the same post-surgery), but Matt Capps' implosion as the Twins' closer opens the door for a resurging Nathan. Obviously picking up Nathan at this point won't get you his hold numbers, but it will get you a pitcher that's thrown up a .344 OPS, a .125 BAbip, and a 0.429 WHIP since coming off the DL. And while those numbers are a lot to sustain for the rest of the campaign, the Twins being back in the race will have them leaning on Nathan much more now, giving him plenty of chances to excel and show his stuff from years past.
• My pick for the "Heart Attack Award", as much as it pains me to say it, is my Indians' own Vinnie Pestano (thought I was gonna say Chris "Pure Rage" Perez, didn't you?). The "Bullpen Mafia" has been the key to Cleveland's upstart success this season so far, and "Capo" Pestano has been one of the huge lifts that have allowed the 'pen to be so successful. His recent outings, however, have been offers that fantasy owners could refuse. Over his last 10 games, he's amassed a hefty 7.56 ERA (8.1 IP, 7 ER) on nine hits, three walks and 14 Ks. He was 2-for-3 in saves in the period with three holds. It's entirely possible that this is a bump in the road in a very young career (this being Pestano's first full year in the Majors). It will be interesting to keep watch, however. Considering the ineffectiveness of starters Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot (whom is on the DL at this time), the recent struggles of Carlos Carrasco, and the continued absence of promising rookie hurler Alex White, the Tribe bullpen will likely see a lot of work in the coming games as the rotation is jury-rigged together. Will the young guns hold it together? Or will lack of innings prior to all this work this year come back to bite 'em in the rear? Stay tuned on that. As for Pestano, I would advise getting him for depth in your advanced leagues. He's always good to pull holds out of the air (13 on the year), can back up Chris Perez in case of needing saves (he's come in in 18 save situations), and his deeper numbers (0.963 WHIP, .550 OPS, .260 BAbip, and 2.33 FIP) trend towards his recent issues being just blips on the radar screen.
• This week's "ZOMBIE!" was a little hard to pick out. And while I hate to kick a guy while he's down, I felt that Kevin Gregg of the Baltimore Orioles was probably the worst guy in the last little while. His last 10 games fleshed out like so: 9.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 Sv. His overall stats for the season? Not much better: 36 IP, 16 ER, 33 H, 24 BB, 31 K, 15/19 Sv. Digging deeper, I find some disturbing trends: As of right now, his WHIP (1.583), SO/BB ratio (1.29), and OPS (.769) are lining up to be the worst in his career. His FIP (4.69) is his second worst, with only his '09 Cubs campaign surpassing that (4.93). Maybe this suspension will help get Gregg's head on straight and salvage his '11 campaign. Or, maybe Koji Uehara will step up and make the Orioles' decision once Gregg comes off suspension a little harder. And maybe, just maybe, Gregg will learn how to throw a punch.

Be sure to tune in each Thursday for the NL side of things.

As always, you can hit up in the comment link below or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

"Now warming, in the left field bullpen..."

Greetings fellow COSFBA'ers (try saying THAT three times fast)!

My name is Jeff Coleman, and I'm happy to be joining you all as a contributing writer in the blogosphere. And while I'm new to the realm here, I'm hoping to provide a fresh outlook and take on things that I hope y'all find informative, entertaining, and maybe a little dazzling, at points.

But first...a little about me:

• 34 years old, currently living in Crothersville, Indiana
• Was born and raised around the outskirts of Cleveland, Ohio (so yes, I bleed Wahoo Red And Blue)
• Spent six years as Air Force Active Duty and am entering Year 3 of Reserves duty, stationed at Travis Air Force Base, California as an aircraft mechanic (so I have a bit of a "soft spot" towards the World Champs, as well)
• A fan of the sport for the sport's sake, not for the names on the front OR back of the jerseys (but yes, I have my favorites, as I mentioned... doesn't everyone?)

I'm sure that's all well and good, but I'm sure y'all want to hear about the upcoming article series, and a bit of my experience with the Grand Ol' Game.

Well...you've got your wish!

I've been following baseball since the mid-80's. Brought up with the Tribe (of course), but found myself liking a lot of the (at that time) underdog-ish teams: the Toronto Blue Jays, the Minnesota Twins, and the Atlanta Braves. So it was immediately apparent that I wasn't just a hometown follower. I like baseball for baseball. Stats appealed to me. I was a weird little kid and liked math.

Go figure.

I didn't get into fantasy baseball until the 2000's but by the time I found that little haven, I was deep into living my life (and giving it away to the military). So I never had the time I wanted to fully partake. I did some Yahoo! H2H public leagues. I think I dabbled in ESPN or CBS Sports, one of those two. But I at least tried to follow the games, the stats. I started looking into this whole "sabermetrics" thing because Billy Beane was a HUGE topic of conversation in Northern California. I spent a lot of the time I could putting together my own 'fantasy' teams in MVP Baseball (and now the MLB 2k series) for my computer and video game system, with mixed results. But it kept me thinking and entertained.

And I hope to do the same with this article series for you fine folks.

The series, called "Warming In The 'Pen", will be focused on closers and other late-inning relief. The guys you look to for saves, holds, late-inning Ks and heroics, and the other funness that tends to fall to the depths of the bullpen staff. Who's hot, who's playing for a shot, who's utterly abysmal and should be avoided at all costs. And the "who's likely to give you a heart attack every night, but is still worth the price of acquiring" (*coughcough*ChrisPerez*coughcough*).

The series will start next week with AL closers being featured on Tuesdays and their NL counterparts appearing on Thursdays. I'm hoping to take in-depth statistical analysis, distill it down to reading even the most casual fantasy fan can get something out of, and present it from a "Joe Every-Fan" perspective, complete with opinions I'm sure some of you will go "Huh???" over.

So that's what you get to look forward to! I hope we'll all get a little something out of it, and have fun doing it!

See everyone next week!

Jeff Coleman
@JCPronkFan48

Line of the Day: July 6th, 2011

Justin Masterson pitched eight scoreless innings in a 5-3 victory over the New York Yankees. He allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out six and raising his overall record to 7-6 on the season.

Line: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K; W, QS

My fantasy perspective: Masterson is slowing becoming the fantasy pitcher owners hoped he'd mature into. He's on pace for 13-15 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP in the 1.20's. Not bad for a virtually undrafted player.

Via FanGraphs, his K/9 rate is down a bit to 6.36 compared to his career rate of 7.16 but so is his BB/P rate (2.81 vs 3.66 career). His ground ball percentage of 55.7% is also right in line with his career rate of 56.5% and helps explains a career-low HR/9 rate of 0.30.

He's only 69.2% owned in ESPN and 69% owned in ESPN leagues, so check out your league's waiver wire if you are in need of a quality starting pitcher.

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

The Knurve's American League All-Star Ballot

Shalom Everybody!

Ever since they made the All-Star game "mean something" by having it decide homefield in the World Series, I've had mixed feelings about the game. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the person the San Francisico Giants have to thank the most for winning last year's World Series (not getting there) is not Tim Lincecum, not Cody Ross, not Brian Wilson, not even Brian Wilson's beard, but......Brian McCann?!?!?

McCann's bases clearing double in the All-Star game propelled the NL to victory and gave the Giants homefield where Jonathan Sanchez, Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain were stupendous last year. I should also mention that I'm a huge believer in the Home Run Derby ruining a players swing for the second half, so I never want my fantasy hombres to be in the contest. I will say I'm looking forward to the bombs that are going to be dropped in Arizona.

So it is with this frustration in mind that I give you my American League All-Star starters, but I'll have two names under each position. The first name is who it WILL be and the second name is who it SHOULD/COULD be, just like this game SHOULD/COULD be an exhibition. If I say it "should be", then you know I feel strongly about the 2nd name, but if I say "could be" then you know a case could be made.

Catcher
It will be: Victor Martinez
He qualifies there, so it will be him. This one's all in the name for Victor. He is not the best catcher on his team (hint, hint...) but he's hitting solidly over .320 and is producing runs at a pretty solid clip. His production is a big reason the Detroit Tigers are in good shape to take a very winnable division.

It should be: Alex Avila
Now Avila is the best catcher on the Tigers and he's having a breakout year. I passed on the chance to pick him up in one of my leagues in favor of Wilson Ramos, and that's been my biggest regret so far this fantasy season. He's showing great flashses of power, has 10-steal potential, and is an even bigger reason than Martinez, and maybe even Miguel Cabrera, that the Tigers are where they are. Avila is the MVP of the Tigers this season because without his production, this team would be as average as every other team in the AL Central seems.

First Base
It will be: Adrian Gonzalez
This one is pretty straighforward. Gonzalez has been the most complete hitter in the AL and it's not even close. He's scoring runs, hitting for power, hitting for average, driving runs in at a ridiculous clip, and has carried the Red Sox, at times. People forget that he started somewhat slow, hitting a paltry .314 in April. What? David? That's not paltry!!! It is when you consider he hit .341 in May and .404 in June with 15 dingers in those two months. The man is a stud.

It should be: Paul Konerko
This is not a knock on Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Mark Teixeira at all, but Konerko has done everything but steal bases for the White Sox when the rest of their offense has been as useless as bacon to someone who keeps kosher. Like V-Mart, it's refreshing to see Konerko put these past two seasons together and bounce back to the stud he was when the White Sox won it all last decade. Think about the White Sox offensive potential in Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham. When you consider none of those guys have been hitting and it's been Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin keeping this underperforming team in the race. Many players can fold under that pressure, but Konerko has excelled.

Second Base
It will be: Robinson Cano
I don't have many qualms with this. I have really enjoyed watching Cano's career blossom in the way that it has. He hit .342 in his second full year in the bigs with just 15 homers. He has evolved his game to hit for power and not feel like he has to pull everything, which I think is rare for a young player who is entering his prime. I also like the fact that Cano was a homegrown Yankee. The fact that he came from their farm system is refreshing. He's hovered around .300 the whole season despite not being the most patient hitter, but he makes it work. This is a pretty clear choice.

It could be: Ian Kinsler
I only say this because Kinsler is Jewish. Just kidding. Seriously though, when Kinsler is healthy, he gives such an unbelievable boost to the Texas Rangers. His batting average is down a little bit this year, but with double digit homers and steals, already. His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career mark, so I can see him having a big second half if he's healthy. His run production is also down, but there's only so much he can do since he's been leading off five out of every six games.

Shortstop
It will be: Asdrubal Cabrera
He's been the rock of the overperforming Indians offense. He's been hitting for power, stealing bases and simply doing it all for the Cleveland Indians. I don't think there's much of an argument here. Jeter's days as an All-Star are done. Who better to fill his shoes than a player as similar to him as Cabrera. Cabrera has a touch more power than Jeter did but he's also a stud defensively, which us fantasy players have to take into account, as boring as that may be.

It could be: Jhonny Peralta
There are a lot of options here, including J. J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus, but I think Peralta has been a critical performer for the Tigers. He's on pace for around 25 HR/95 RBI and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. If you told the Tigers at the beginning of the season these would be Peralta's halfway stats, then they'd have given you a hot dog. Chubby Jhonny Peralta could be eating tons of hot dogs in Arizona.

Third Base
It will be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any argument here? He is head and shoulders better than any other third baseman in the AL. This is the weakest position, by far, in fantasy and the majors this year, so what's to argue with here? I chronicled in one of my "Knurve to Say" articles that Bautista was having a brutal June, but his April and May will put him in the All-Star game. He's on pace for 10 steals, he takes walks, scores runs, he does it all. I boldly predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to get the Wildcard, and I truly believe this team has it all. Bautista is the anchor.

It should be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any arguing here? Sure Alex Rodriguez has a case, but I can't see any possible scenario where America would feel A-Rod gets the nod over Bautista, who is finally getting the recognition for what he's been doing.

Outfield
It will be: Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki
I'll start with the two locks: Granderson and Ellsbury. Is there even any question? These two guys are studs who you got for pretty cheap on draft day compared to the levels they have performed. AL Outfield is so weak this season that these two are shoo-ins. The pragmatist in me wants to be realistic and say Ichiro's going to get the votes to become an All-Star because he always does. He is starting to pick it back up, so it's not a completely lame assertion. B. J. Upton has hit 11 more dingers with the same number of steals and significantly worse batting average, so it might be six of one half a dozen of the other.

It should be: Granderson, Ellsbury and Upton
As for Upton, people want to rip on his batting average, and that's pretty easy because it's THAT terrible, but if you look at his counting stats, he's on pace for another 25 HR/45 SB season, which makes the batting average much easier to swallow. Considering the other possible names for this list are Alex Gordon and Brennan Boesch, I think we can be confident in this tandem.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Justin Verlander
I think Verlander is well-liked enough across the country that he has to be the favorite here. As much as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will garner a ton of votes, I'd hope baseball fans can appreciate Verlander's dominance this season. With this being another "Year of the Pitcher", it's not easy to pick this spot, but Verlander leads the majors in K's, WHIP, and Wins. His ERA is a full run higher than Weaver's, but the defense behind Verlander is 24th in the majors in Fielding Percentage whereas the Angels are 4th in the AL (8th in the majors).

It could be: Jered Weaver
There's certainly a great case to be made for Weaver. His April was Zack Greinke-esque (circa 2009) and he has established himself as a dominant starter in the AL. Along with Verlander, he's proven himself durable and reliable. Aside from one slight hiccup against the Indians, he's been as good as they come. When you're 6'7", throwing downhill is much better, especially when you're able to locate your off-speed stuff as well as he has.

So there it is... thoughts? Tweet me @TheKnurve. I'd love some feedback!
-David Kaplan

Playing the Name Game: Who's Who

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" is the third time this season I'll be comparing nameless player's statistics  and hopefully opening your eyes a little bit to how name recognition (and sometimes the lack thereof) can skew the realm of fantasy baseball ownership. This time I'm going to hold back all of the player's names until the end. NOTE: All stats quoted are from games played through June 29th, 2011.

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Let's jump right into the game by comparing the statistics (5x5 style) of a pair of outfielders in Scenario A:

• Player A: .258 BA, 35 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .282 BA, 42 R, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB

Player A is owned in 67.5% of ESPN leagues and just 39% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 84% of Yahoo! leagues. Are the 24 points in batting average, seven runs, two RBI and two stolen bases really worth such a discrepancy in ownership numbers? Here's a hint to guessing their names: neither player's home park would be consider hitter-friendly.

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Let's take a look at another pair of outfielders producing similar stats in Scenario B:

• Player A: .262 BA, 51 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 5 SB
• Player B: .264 BA, 25 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB

Again, pretty similar except for the large discrepancy in runs scored. How could that be explained? What if I told you Player A has had 279 at-bats while Player B has only had 148 at-bats? So, very similar numbers in half the at-bats, except for runs. Player A cost you an ADP of 104.1 while it's safe to say Player B was virtually undrafted. Now let's take a look at ownership numbers. Player A (99.6% E; 86% Y!); Player B (8% E; 5% Y!). Here's a hint to narrow down who they are: both players are on different contending teams in the NL Central.

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Enough with outfielder comparisons for the moment. Check out these pair of first basemen in Scenario C:

• Player A: .173 BA, 20 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB
• Player B: .217 BA, 17 R, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Ugh, why would anyone want to own either of these players with nearly half a season in the books? Fantasy owners got the memo about Player B and have avoided ownership to the tune of 0.4% in ESPN leagues and 1% of Yahoo! leagues. Quite the head-scratcher, though, that Player A is still owned in 83.3% of ESPN leagues and 79% of Yahoo! leagues. Oh right, Player A cost you an ADP of 37.3.

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How about a trio of first basemen with similar numbers up for comparison in Scenario D?:

• Player A: .297 BA, 33 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .272 BA, 33 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB
• Player C: .306 BA, 34 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

Okay, now we're talking. These three are virtually the same player, right? Wrong. Ownership levels are all over the place. Player A is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 90% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in just 43.3% of ESPN leagues and 30% of Yahoo! leagues and lastly, Player C is 91.9% owned in ESPN leagues and 53% of Yahoo! leagues. Over the last 15 days, Player B has three home runs while the other two combined have none.

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Lastly, let's compare a pair of young catchers with a ton of potential but I wonder if that potential is another year away from being realized after looking at Scenario E:

• Player A: .226 BA, 36 R, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB
• Player B: .226 BA, 24 R, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB

Again, other than runs scored and a few bonus steals, these catchers are providing nearly the same level of offense to a fantasy team. Both players are 25 years old but the perception of each is quite different. Player A has only played 2/3rds of his games at catcher and the other 1/3rd at first base and owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 95% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B has caught nearly the same amount of games but stuck in a perceived 60/40 split of time with a veteran catcher and owned in 50.9% of ESPN leagues and 52% of Yahoo! leagues.

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Enough with the player comparisons already, right? Let's get to revealing the player's names after the break.

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Official All-Star Ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, one of the requirements is to post an official All-Star ballot each year. As a member of the Fantasy Chapter, my ballot will have a fantasy skew to its nominees.

Let's get to the balloting, by league. Up first, COSFBA's 2011 American League All-Stars:

• C Alex Avila, DET (.303/28/10/45/3)
• 1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (.358/56/16/71/1)
• 2B Robinson Cano, NYY (.291/45/14/48/6)
• 3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY (.300/48/13/50/4)
• SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE (.290/50/12/43/12)
• OF Curtis Granderson, NYY (.279/68/21/55/12)
• OF Jose Bautista, TOR (.328/60/23/48/5)
• OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS (.304/55/9/39/24)
• DH David Ortiz, BOS (.311/47/17/48/1)
• SP Justin Verlander, DET (10-3, 2.38 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 124 K)
• RP Mariano Rivera, NYY (19 Saves, 1.84 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 23 K)

Now on to COSFBA's 2011 National League All-Stars:

• C Brian McCann, ATL (.300/27/13/43/2)
• 1B Prince Fielder, MIL (.306/48/21/67/0)
• 2B Rickie Weeks, MIL (.294/56/14/33/7)
• 3B Placido Polanco, PHI (.286/30/4/39/3)
• SS Jose Reyes, NYM (.334/58/3/31/27)
• OF Matt Kemp, LAD (.329/50/21/60/21)
• OF Ryan Braun, MIL (.309/55/15/57/16)
• OF Justin Upton, ARI (.304/45/12/39/14)
• SP Cole Hamels, PHI (9-4, 2.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 108 K)
• RP Joel Hanrahan, PIT (22 Saves, 1.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 31 K)

So there you have them, COSFBA's 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Star rosters. Agree? Disagree? Use the comments section to award your fantasy baseball all-stars. Feel free to comment on who you'd have as a reserve player, too.

NOTE: All stats referenced are as of games played through June 25th, 2011 and are for standard 5x5 scoring categories.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from May 25th, 2011

Here are some fantasy baseball-relevant tidbits and notes I picked up from box scores and recaps from games played on May 25th, 2011:

• OF Carl Crawford, BOS went 4-for-4 with two doubles, a home run, two RBI and three runs scored in the Red Sox 14-2 rout of the Cleveland Indians (and earned himself a "Line of the Day" award). Crawford went 6-for-11 in this series and seems ready to reward fantasy owners that hung onto him through all of his struggles.
• OF Grady Sizemore, CLE ran the bases without any problems and is expected to be activated from the DL before this weekend's series versus the Rays.
• DH David Ortiz, BOS hit his 10th home run of the season and is 13/32 (.406) with three homers and a 1.250 OPS over the last seven days. Keep an eye on late-June when the Red Sox play road interleague games without a DH.
• OF Andruw Jones, NYY hit a pair of two-run home runs in a spot start in left field. He doesn't play regularly enough to have much fantasy value but it's nice to see he still has some gas left in the tank.
• SP Jo-Jo Reyes, TOR suffered the loss against the Yankees and dropped his record to 0-4 on the season and tied a major league record with 28 starts without a victory. With only three quality starts in 10 games started, it's probably safe to avoid Reyes until he proves he can be effective.
• 1B/OF Mike Morse, WAS hit his third home run in three days and should be owned in all leagues except the most shallow. He'll play first base regularly until Adam LaRoche returns.
• SP Zack Greinke, MIL struck out 10 (or more) batters for the 10th time in his career and also hit his second career home run. His 39 K's in just 28 innings translates into a 12.54 K/9 ratio to go along with a ridiculous 39:3 K:BB ratio of 13-to-1. Wow. Hopefully he's given up pick-up basketball.
• SP Erik Bedard, SEA pitched six shutout innings and earned his third win in his last five starts without a loss. He's allowed two runs or less in all five of those starts. With 45 K's in 51.2 innings pitched, Bedard seems to have returned to the land of the fantasy relevant. Owned in only 47% of ESPN and 36% of Yahoo! leagues, now would be a good time to take a shot at streaming him in his next start against Baltimore.
• CL Brandon League, SEA pitched a perfect ninth inning to record his 12th save in 15 chances (and three in a row now) and seems to have regained control over the closer's role after nearly losing it with three straight blown save opportunities.
• C J.R. Towles, HOU broke an 0-for-32 slump with three hits and a walkoff RBI in the 9th inning. You can do much better at the catcher position in fantasy baseball.
• OF Melky Cabrera, KC hit his sixth home run of the season and has 15 RBI and 11 runs scored over his last 19 games. He's 93.9% owned in ESPN leagues but only 60% in Yahoo! leagues. Why the disparity? Odd. Check your Yahoo! waiver wires if you are in need of some outfield depth.
• OF Mike Stanton, FLA was 4-for-6 with four RBI in a wild game against the Giants. Over the last 15 games, Stanton is 17/44 (.386) with six home runs, 14 RBI, eight runs scored, 10 extra-base hits and a 1.309 OPS.
• C Buster Posey, SF has reportedly suffered a broken leg and torn ligaments in a home plate collision. Details are just coming out this morning. Horrible news. On a positive note, 1B/OF Brandon Belt was recalled and should receive regular playing time going forward.
• SP Ian Kennedy, ARI raised his record to 6-1 on the season and went 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in five May starts. Eight of his 11 starts have been quality starts.
• CL J.J. Putz, ARI pitched a perfect ninth inning, registering a franchise-record 14th straight save to start the season.
• CL Jordan Walden, LAA recorded his 10th save in 13 opportunities and has regained control over the closer's role. He now has a 24:11 K:BB ratio in 23.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

I'd love some feedback from readers about this feature. Is it useful? Worth continuing? More in depth analysis needed to make it useful? More commentary to make it fun? Any information is greatly appreciated.