Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition: August 5th, 2011

Welcome back! Apologies for the lateness of the article... Things outside of COSFBA have been a little hectic lately and I've been somewhat under the weather myself (damn heat wave). I'll endeavor to keep things as close to normal as possible here, though likely shorter.

There's been very little movement Waiver Wire-wise with the back end of the 'pens since the first of the month. The Mike Adams trade was the biggest one and it did shake up the Padres' bullpen.  However, who knows what the next few weeks will hold.

Let's have a review of last week's names:

• Brian Wilson only appeared in two games over the last week, due to blow-outs both by and against the Giants. He picked up a save and a loss in 1.1 innings, giving up a run on three hits while walking one and striking out two. Friday's game was the first game he allowed a run since before the All-Star Break, so we shouldn't read anything more into it than a closer having an off night.
• Adams was shuttled off from the San Diego Padres to the Texas Rangers. While it's hard to judge a trade this early, especially across leagues, here's the splits: in his last appearance with the Padres, he pitched an inning allowing a hit and a strikeout. He got the hold in that game. In his first appearance with the Rangers, he pitched an inning allowing a run and two hits, getting a punchout and allowing a walk. Like with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, it's going to be hard to see immediate impact when coming from the opposite league. Once he has time to adjust (3-to-4 weeks, in my opinion), he should be back to near-dominance.
• Antonio Bastardo wound up in four games in the last week, winning two and picking up two holds. He only gave up a run on three hits in 3.1 innings, fanning four. He did allow a longball in last night's 8-6 win over Colorado, but such a thing is a rarity this season (he's only allowed three on the season). His and Ryan Madson's work are pivotal to keep Philly atop the NL East.
• Henry Rodriguez worked in a little longer relief last week, logging 4.1 innings in two games. He gave up a run on a hit, walking one and striking out five. There haven't been any clear or consistent signs of his performances improving; flashes here and there. There might be continued hope for him, but right now all signs point to not much improvement.

 Now, let's get some names out there for this week:

• "Doing Work" - J.J. Putz (ARI): J.J. has been having a solid season as the D-Backs closer, helping keep them within a game of the Division-leading (and World Champion) Giants. His last week reads dominantly: 2.2 innings pitched in three appearances, zero runs on three hits with a walk. He grabbed three saves, running his season total to 25. He is coming off the DL after to a right elbow injury, and isn't showing any ill-effects aside from a slight drop in fastball velocity (1 MPH) which right now could be contributed to 'rust'. The D-Backs had no problems throwing him in three straight games, but will likely rest him for a bit and let Arizona's solid set-up man David Hernandez close as needed. Expect that trend to continue for likely the next month as Putz works his arm (and elbow) back to shape and normal routine. J.J. will still be good for late innings, and will be relied upon for the high-leverage situations as the hunt for the Playoffs builds to a climax.
• "Unsung Hero" - Heath Bell (SD): While the Padres are pretty well out of the hunt for the Playoffs this year, you wouldn't know it looking at Heath. 30+ saves with a sub-2.50 ERA, hitters batting .210 against him. Last week's line reads brilliantly as well: three games, three innings, no runs, one hit, three punchouts. Most of this with the trade winds swirling around him and Mike Adams (who was the eventual 'odd man out'), and in the midst of a relatively dreadful San Diego season. The Padres have been playing a little better lately than their record indicates, and Buddy Black is not a manager to "mail-in" a season, so expect Heath to get plenty of work in for the rest of the year. He'll make it all count, even though it may be way too late to bail out the leaky boat of the '11 San Diego Padres season.
• "Heart-Attack Award" - Jason Isringhausen (NYM): Izzy got roughed up over his last week. He appeared in four games, four innings pitched. He allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and saved two games. He's up to 298 saves on his career, and I will stand behind him getting #300 on a Mets uniform (there were some trade winds swirling for him, and some still say he might still move over the Waiver Wire). However, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. New York is still on the outside edge of a Wild-Card spot, and will be playing like it. Izzy's in line to log more innings in a season than he has since his '07 Cardinals campaign, and it's going to wear on his arm pretty good at this point. The Mets seem to be riding Izzy for all he's worth, and I'm looking to see a fade within the next month and a half. Whether they stick it out with Izzy, or use a fresher (and younger) Bobby Parnell for the stretch run, will be decided by the standings.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Rex Brothers (COL):The Colorado Rockies setup man has been having a first year in the Big Leagues to... well... remember, but probably not for the reasons he'd want to. Up until the last week, he was running along pretty well. But then this happened: four appearances, three innings, six runs, five hits, two walks, six Ks. That equals out to two losses and a blown save. While there's pretty much nothing to go on (3 years of Minors work), Rex is next-in-line for the closer role, apparently by his merits. He's on-pace to pitch more innings than he has in pretty much any level of the Minors. Brothers could either be reduced in workload, or shut down completely because of it. It's extremely difficult to predict future performance on a rookie, so I would have to say that Rex is a "wait til next year" candidate and find your holds elsewhere.

Here's hoping for a return to normal next week!

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition

The Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while several big moves were conspired (I'll probably write my thoughts on Ubaldo Jimenez in a future article), the back end of most 'pens stayed intact. The Rangers added major depth with Mike Adams and Koji Uehara as they try and repeat once more as the AL Champions. Brad Ziegler, former Oakland A, has been shuttled off to Arizona. Other than that, stability reigned in the AL. Certainly there's bound to be Waiver Wire activity in the coming weeks, and I'm sure we'll have more news as it comes.

But for now, let's look at last week's performers:

• Jonathan Papelbon saw action in one game this past week, where he slammed the door on the Chicago White Sox in a perfect ninth inning. He struck out the side, and notched his 24th save of the season.
• Grant Balfour came into three games, pitched three innings, and only allowed two hits. He also got two knockouts, but no holds or saves as the games (all wins) were already well-in-hand.
• Andrew Bailey showed up in two games (like Balfour's games, both well-in-hand so no saves), and gave up an unearned run on two hits in two innings pitched. He fanned three in the midsts of his work.
• Jordan Walden managed to get a save in two games, allowing two hits and getting two punch-outs. The Indians made his save very interesting (as Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard can attest to), but he managed to pull it out.

And this week's winners and losers:

• "Doing Work" - Mariano Rivera (NYY): In an occurrence that's of no surprise to anyone (100% ownership in ESPN leagues), Mo has been putting together a season to compare with the best ones of his career. A 1.74 ERA (4th lowest in his career), a 7.40 K/BB ratio (2nd best), a 0.6% HR (2nd best), and he's averaging 14 pitches per game in relief, the best in his career. I really don't have to say much about Mo. He's 41, still dealing over 90 MPH on his heat, and his numbers over the last 4 seasons have been much better than his career averages. He does seem to be getting hit more easily (.294 BAbip this season vs. .264 career), but with a FIP this year of 1.88 (right in line with his season ERA, 0.87 better than his career average, and the best in his career), he is still an insanely effective pitcher. He has 587 saves on his career, and knowing the Yankees and their fight in the AL East, he will hit 600 before the season's end. I'm not a Yankee fan, but I do know a superstar player when I see one. Mo is one for the ages.
• "Unsung Hero" - David Robertson (NYY): Behind every great closer, there's usually a great set-up man. In the real-life Gotham City, Mo's Batman is accompanied by 'Robin' Robertson. David has only been in the Bigs for four years, so saying a season is his best so far isn't difficult. However, the amount of improvement he's shown has been amazing. His ERA this year is 1.90 below his average, his FIP is 1.35 lower, and his WHIP (while not impressive) is 0.11 lower. His LOB % (85.5), GB % (46.0), and K/9 ratio (14.46) are all much higher than his career marks. He's picked up 2 MPH on his fastball, almost 3 MPH on his curve, and a touch over 3 MPH on his changeup. He has a wide range of speeds, and has enough control to get batters to slap ground balls down. Plus, there's the fact of him not giving up a single home run all season. He's grabbed 21 holds for the year so far, so he's definitely worth a pick-up in holds and deep leagues. He could be next in line to take over closing duties after Mo retires. If he continues on his upward trend, the drop-off after Rivera will be much, much less than I think anyone anticipates.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Neftali Feliz (TEX): There may have been a reason behind the Rangers' acquisition of Adams and Uehara, and it might be to back Feliz up in a possible "closer-by-committee" situation if he continues to struggle. I know I've written about Feliz before. At the time, I wrote that he'd possibly be coming around. Well, so far, not so good: a loss (and a blown save in the process) and a save in his last two games. He gave up two runs on three hits in 1.1 innings pitched, with a walk and a strikeout. Yes, as I stated before, he's coming off a horrible month of June. His month of July wasn't great: 0-1 record, 5 Sv, 4.00 ERA, 9 IP in 10 G, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. While it was an improvement on June, there's still a lot of work to get back to the sub-2.00 ERAs of April and May. His last 28 days numbers (save the ERA) are trending more towards his '11 season numbers, so there is still a chance for Feliz to pull it together and end his season strong. There may be less pressure on Feliz in this pennant race now that Adams and Uehara are both Rangers, but I don't see a change in the role of closer unless Feliz completely falls on his face.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Jon Rauch (TOR): The Blue Jays do have an outside chance at the Playoffs: only 10.5 games out of the Wild Card lead, and an above-.500 record. If they were in the AL Central, they'd be tied with the Indians at two games out of the lead. However, Jon Rauch isn't exactly helping them get there. Over his last three games (2.2 IP), he's given up two runs on three hits, only grabbing two strikeouts. With a WHIP of 1.500, an OPS of .876 and a BAbip of .357 over the last four weeks, it's really doubtful that this is just a 'phase'. With a low GB% (36.6), a high HR/9 ratio (1.62), and a FIP of almost 5 (4.82), there's something more to all of this. Rauch has lost speed on all his pitches (1.5 MPH on his fastball alone) along with an increased reliance on his changeup (10.7% this year, up from 6.2% a year ago). The problem comes into effect when you consider his average fastball is at 89.4 MPH, his average slider is 84.6 MPH, and his average changeup is 83.7 MPH. A 5.7 MPH difference between a pitcher's hard stuff and his "finesse" pitches is definitely not a good thing, and tends to get him hit hard. The unfortunate thing is that the next-in-line for the closer role, Frank Francisco, is not much better. The Jays may want to consider a Waiver Wire move for 'pen help, or any hope of Playoffs for them is moot.

 The NL will be on report on Thursday as usual. As always, comment below or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Warming Up In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 26th, 2011

Greetings and salutations!

This is likely to be a shorter article than usual this week; Outside-of-COSFBA considerations are taking precedence. However, I'm going to try and get as much goodness out with a few less words than normal. So with that out of the way, here's a quick review of last week's performers:

• Neftali Feliz saw only one game of work in the last week (yesterday). He gave up a hit and a walk in one inning in an absolute pummeling of Minnesota. Manager Ron Washington stated that the long layoff for Feliz wasn't by design, with an off-day and only one save opportunity cropping up (in the 6th on July 20th against the Angels). Feliz was working on the side during the stretch. It's interesting to note that Feliz had a six-day 'vacation' which included the All-Star Break last year, and was lights-out in his remaining performances. Could we be due for a repeat?
• Speaking of the Twins, closer Joe Nathan saw two games this past seven days. He allowed a run on two hits in two innings, striking out one. He was 2-for-2 in the save chances to give him a total of seven on the year. If the Twins have any chance of competing once more in the suddenly-clogged AL Central, Nathan will need to continue to be steady and solid in the back of the 'pen like he has been lately. He has the opportunity to show that the early season was just "knocking off the rust".
• Vinnie Pestano also worked two games and was roughed up for two runs on four hits, including a longball in last night's dramatic Indians comeback win against the Angels. He had only one strikeout in his two innings of work this past week. He blew the save last night on a 1-0 four-seamer Bobby Abreu promptly deposited in the right field seats. The recent streak of work for the "Bullpen Mafia" has been troubling, and I'm starting to wonder (like last week) if the number of innings is starting to wear on the young arms. Pestano and the rest need to right the ship if the Tribe is going to stay in competition.
• Kevin Gregg served his three-game suspension but did work two games against LA over the past week. He notched a save in two innings pitched, giving up two hits and two walks, but two strikeouts as well. It'll be interesting to see if the "cooling of his heels" helps his game any going forward.

 Now let's move forward with this week's guns:

• "Doing Work": Jonathan Papelbon (BOS) - Paps once more makes an appearance in the 'Pen, and this time it's on the "good" side of the ledger. Since giving up the solo run against the Rays, Paps has been dominant. Five innings of work has seen him allow a grand total of one hit. He's also notched three saves and five strikeouts. He's always had solid months of July and August in his career, notching career ERAs under 2.25 each month (2.24 in July, 1.92 in August), WHIPs under 1.100 (0.980 / 1.067), OPSs under .585 (.566 / .584) and BABIPs under .300 (.262 / .293). Careerwise, his FIP has actually been worst in the month of June (3.26), steadily dropping in July (2.91) and even more dramatically in August (2.27). In my opinion, Paps has turned the corner with the turn of the calendar month. The fact that he has full ownership in ESPN leagues shows that the rest of the fantasy owners are keeping the faith in Paps and the Red Sox fight in the AL East race.
• "Unsung Hero": Grant Balfour (OAK) - The Athletics set-up man has been having a stellar campaign, and the last seven days have been no exception. In three outings (3.1 innings total), Balfour is 3-for-3 in holds (18 on the season), giving up three hits, walking one and fanning one. The 2.03 ERA he's accumulated on the year is the second best in his career (his 1.54 ERA with the '08 Rays the only one better). His FIP overall this year (3.11) is better than his career average (3.42), and there are other numbers that are better this year versus his career averages (.237 BAbip vs. .281, 2.56 K/BB ratio vs. 2.38, 1.05 WHIP vs. 1.26, .541 OPS vs. .647). He's coming off of a strained right oblique, and has shown no lingering or ill effects. The fact that he's not seemingly well-known (1.6% ESPN league ownership, only up 0.3% from last week) means he might be more of a depth league pick. However, he's well worth the grab even in your more standard leagues if he's available.
• "Heart Attack Award": Andrew Bailey (OAK) - Bailey's last seven days haven't been horrible. He's given up one run on two hits in three innings, walking three and striking out five. While grabbing saves in each of those appearances, allowing base runners is never a good sign. His FIP throughout his career has exceeded his ERA (2.44 FIP vs. 2.25 ERA this season alone, a more dramatic 2.96 vs. 1.47 last season). Interestingly, he's been throwing more fastballs than ever in his career (78.2% vs. a 65.0% career average), but with a one-MPH drop in average speed. It might not be much of a change, but combine that with a similar drop across the board with all his pitches, and you start to wonder if there might be an issue with Bailey's mechanics. Be it an actual flaw or hitch in his delivery, or perhaps wear and tear, there could be cause for future concern. This isn't enough for me to say to stay away from Andrew; I'm no expert in the medical sciences or the 'sciences' of pitching. However, it's safe to say there's something more here than what's on the surface. Be wary, and only grab Bailey for depth. I have a feeling that Oakland, being out of the race as far as they are, may begin relying on the above-mentioned Balfour for saves sooner rather than later.
• "ZOMBIE!": Jordan Walden (LAA) - The Angel's All-Star closer has been having a good season, but his recent outings have been a mixed bag. Last night, he blew a save (and got the loss) by giving up two runs on two hits (one of which was a game-tying double by Travis Hafner! Sorry, boss.), along with a walk and a strikeout. In the last week, those are the only runs he's given up. However, since June 22, he's gone 2-2, 6/10 saves, five runs, nine hits, three walks, and six strikeouts. This 'wilting under the pressure' during the Angels' attempt to keep up with the Rangers. During the last three months of the season in his (albeit short) career, his WHIPs (1.33 and 1.30), BABIPs (.429 and .333), and BB/9 ratio (3.00 and 4.38) are elevated. While this may be nothing, the fact that it's happening to a closer (whose entire purpose is to 'seal the deal' under pressure) on a team competing for a playoff spot against the AL Champions really brings into question the mental character of Walden in my mind. I can't cry 'fire sale' on him in your leagues, but I firmly believe that his recent performances are a prelude to a full-blown meltdown as the Angels continue to try to hang in the pennant race.

While there's been no major trade fires burning as of yet, we continue to keep an eye on things. We'll report what we find, and I'll have the NL side of the house on Thursday.

Comments below, or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Line of the Day: Ian Kinsler: July 25th, 2011

Ian Kinsler went 4-for-6 with a double, home run and four RBI in the Texas Rangers 20-6 rout of the Minnesota Twins. The Rangers became the first team to scored 20 runs in a game this season. (video recap)

Line: 6 AB | 2 R | 4 H | 4 RBI; 2B | HR | BB

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Kinsler is the fourth-ranked fantasy baseball second baseman with his .255/72/16/41/19 line and the 33rd-ranked player, overall. His ADP was 43.8, so he's actually performing better than expected so far this season.

His .255 average may be down from his career .277 average but his OBP (.361) and SLG (.460) are right in line with his career numbers. He's also on pace for 25 HR and 30 SB which would be right in line with the 24 HR and 28 SB he averages per 162 games played.

Question: Do Kinsler's numbers get overlooked when discussing elite fantasy second basemen?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Line of the Day: July 22nd, 2011

Nelson Cruz went 4-for-4 with a home run and a career-high eight RBI as the Texas Rangers routed the Toronto Blue Jays 12-2. He had only one RBI in his previous 11 games. (video recap)

Line: 4 AB | 1 R | 4 H | 8 RBI; 2B | HR

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Cruz now has 22 home runs and 64 RBI in 81 games and could make a strong run at 40/100 be season's end. Problem is, he's never stayed healthy enough to play more than 128 games in a season.

His numbers show he's striking out more (25.7 K%) and walking less (6.6 BB%) than his career rates. As a result, his batting average (.252) and on-base percentage (.302) are down but his slugging percentage is up (.524), leading to a robust .272 ISO.

Question: How many home runs and RBI do you expect Cruz to finish with this season?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on
Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Line of the Day: July 21st, 2011

C.J. Wilson allowed just two hits, a walk and a hit by pitch but ended up on the losing end of a 1-0 game against Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels. It was the fifth complete game of  Wilson's career. Four have come in a losing effort. (video recap)

Line: 8 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 0 ER | 1 BB | 8 K; CG | L

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Wilson continues to improve on what was a break-out season as a starter in 2010. This season, he's on pace for 200+ strikeouts due to a 8.08 K/9 ratio and a 22.0 K%. He's also establishing career-best numbers when it comes to limiting walks, allowing 2.82 BB/9 for a 7.7 BB%, leading to a career-best 1.16 WHIP.

Question: Is C.J. Wilson the ace of the Texas Rangers' pitching staff and a legitimate American League Cy Young candidate?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

In The Sabermetric Spotlight: Adrian Beltre

Yesterday, @RedSox tweeted "Gonzo went 4-5 w/ a run in 4-0 win over the O's. This season, he has 4 games w/ 4 hits - most by a #RedSox 1B since Mo Vaughn in '96." I can feel the power of the Spotlight growing each week...

Boy, 2004 sure feels like a long time ago. In September of 2004, "My Goodies" by Ciara (feat. Petey Pablo) was the number one song on the Hot 100 Chart. Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 were tops in the box office. Hurricane Jean was pounding Florida. Adrian Beltre was having the season of a lifetime when he managed to hit .334 with 48 HR and 121 RBI. He's come a long way. Had his ups and downs. And changed teams three times. This week, we shine The Sabermetric Spotlight on...

Adrian Beltre, 3B Texas Rangers

After finishing 3rd on ESPN's Player Rater for thirdbaseman in 2010, Beltre was poised to have another big year, moving to another hitters park in Arlington. Currently, in ESPN standard leagues, Beltre ranks 2nd among fantasy thirdbaseman, only behind the other-worldly Jose Bautista. Let's take a look at his current line.


Comparing these numbers to last year in Boston, the average is down a little, but there is a huge power boost and run production is also up. Beltre is having a fantastic year no matter which way you look at it. In fact, Beltre is on pace for career highs in R and RBI, with the second highest career number in HR (second only to the fantastic 2004 season). Isn't this the same guy that hit only 8 HR over 111 games in the 2009 (albiet injury-riddled) season?

Where is all this production coming from? If you simply look at his counting stats, everything but average looks like an improvement over his stellar 2010 campaign, and a significant upgrade over the dismal 2009 season.


Any fantasy owner would be thrilled with these numbers. Even the batting average wont hurt you. Considering that you didn't expect any speed out of Beltre, you would most likely consider this a draft-day success. But hang on a second. Several of Beltre's peripherals look fishy, and contradict the solid season he's been having.

Year	BABIP	ISO	LD%	K%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	O-Contact%	Contact%	SwStr%
2009	0.301	0.114	16.4%	15.5%	45.6%	37.9%	5.6%	58.4%	76.6%	12.5%
2010	0.331	0.233	19.1%	12.8%	40.5%	40.5%	13.5%	73.1%	82.8%	8.8%
2011	0.255	0.228	17.1%	9.2%	38.9%	44.0%	13.0%	72.1%	85.8%	7.0%
Career	0.292	0.189	18.9%	15.2%	41.5%	39.6%	13.1%	62.2%	79.6%	10.3%

First of all, why was 2009 such a bad season for Beltre? Injuries aside, his numbers were much lower than expected, across the board (save his SB total). His BABIP wasn't terrible (in fact, better than his career average), so it's not like he was unlucky, he genuinely had a bad year. Perhaps injuries played a more significant role than we originally thought. Beltre's K% was significantly higher than is has been the last two years, but at that point in his career it was right on line with his career average. His ISO was significantly down, but that alone couldn't account for his lack of production?

What sticks out to me about 2009 was his unusually high O-Contact% (percent contact made on pitches outside the zone) and SwStr%, meaning he swung and missed at a lot of pitches. His FB% was slightly down, and his HR/FB rate was at a career low. He obviously wasn't getting the pitches he wanted, and was rolling easy grounders to infielders it seems. I think this is a season that Beltre and his fantasy owners in 2009 want to forget.

Back to the present. Take a look at the BABIP numbers in the table. 80 points below last season, and more than 40 points below is career average, not to mention he's in what is considered a very hitter friendly ball park. Beltre's LD% is right on line with his career numbers, so he's making good contact at the plate. His GB% is a little lower than previous years, but nothing too out of the ordinary. It's clear that Beltre is having awful luck this year when it comes to putting the ball in play. In fact, of all qualifying Rangers, Beltre has the second lowest BABIP, only behind Ian Kinsler.

So your telling me, ballpark factors aside, Beltre was luckier in 2009 (his worst season) than he is in 2011? Your telling me that Beltre, despite being on pace for some career highs, could improve? Bingo.

Beltre's ISO is nearly exacty where it was last year, and higher than his career average. Where are all these HRs coming from? His HR/FB rate is nearly the same as last year, so it's not like he's found a new power stroke. The FB% for 2011 (so far) does stick out, however. It's higher than years past, and higher than his career average. How much of this is attributed to his approach at the plate in Texas, is hard to say, but the fact remains the same. Beltre is hitting more HRs because he's hitting more fly balls.

This thought could also explain why his batting average is down slightly, and his BABIP is lower than usual. When you are hitting more fly balls, you are bound to record more outs. The longer the ball is in the air, the more likely it is that you'll be headed back to the bench. You live by the long ball; you die by the long ball (doesn't really apply here, but I just thought it sounded good).

Another number that caught my eye was Beltre's career low K%. Perhaps he is seeing the ball better, or is getting better at adjusting to pitchers in his early 30s. Beltre's Contact% is at a career high, and his SwStr% is at a career low. He's not missing many pitches, and going deep into counts. This gives him the opportunity to look for the pitch he's waiting for and drive it somewhere.

I think Beltre, even after the stellar first half, could have an even better second half. Will he hit 40 HR? Probably not. I think 35 HR is something you could reasonably expect from him. I believe he will post career highs in Runs and RBI, eclipsing 100 in both, and I also think his batting average will come up. If I had a chance to trade for him, I would definitely pull the trigger.

Do you have a comment about the article? Do you have a suggestion for the next player featured In The Sabermetric Spotlight? Hit me up on twitter @SillyLittleGame or leave a comment below!

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 19th, 2011

Welcome back, faithful readers...

When we last left our intrepid AL setup men and closers, Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard were the studs of the week, and Jonathan Papelbon and Frank Francisco were the duds. Before we launch into this week's category winners (and in lieu of not having a K-Rod'esque deal to speak about), let's take a a look at how these gents performed over the last week:

• Soria appeared in one game this past week, notching a save in a KC 2-1 victory over the Twins. He faced five batters, giving up two hits. While not the kind of performance worthy of a dominant closer, Soria continues to be a bright spot for a Royals team that generally doesn't have much to cheer about.
• Bard has run his scoreless streak to 21.2 IP with two appearances totaling 2.1 IP post-All-Star Break. He grabbed another hold (his league-leading 22nd), fanning two, walking one, and allowing two hits. Bard continues to be solid deep-league material, and should (in my opinion) be considered high market value.
• Papelbon gave up one run on two hits in two innings pitched over his latest two appearances. He fanned two and claimed his 21st save of the year. Paps continues to give the BoSox fans their MLB daily allowance of cursing and sweating this season. But Paps being Paps, he should be relatively solid (while continuing to "excite") the rest of the campaign.
• Francisco was indeed moved back into the Jays' set-up role coming out of the All-Star Break, and has appeared in two games. In 2.1 IP, he allowed a hit, and struck out one. It's hard to say if he'll turn the corner once more, but racking up scoreless appearances for, say, the rest of this month? That couldn't hurt his chances to come back to the closer's role (currently held by Jon Rauch)

Now, for this week's performers:

• This week's pitcher that's "Doing Work" is Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been stupid good lately. Since taking one on the chin July 3rd against the Marlins (a game in which Mark Lowe blew the save opp and took the loss when a pickoff attempt failed, and Feliz allowed the last of Florida's 4 9th-inning runs), the Rangers have rattled off 11 straight wins. Feliz has been a large part of that. Since the Florida game, Feliz has given up a run on one hit in 5.1 IP, with a walk and four Ks and notching four saves. That includes three perfect outings this past week (2.1 IP) with three Ks and two saves. On the year, his surface numbers are good: 20-for-24 in saves, 2.97 ERA, 26 Ks in 36.1 IP, batters hitting .200 off him. With most things, however, there's a catch. His season numbers in most of the major categories are trending worse than his career averages, which leads me to believe that the advance scouts and batters are starting to figure him out in his second full season: ERA (2.97 in '11 vs 2.57 career), WHIP (1.183 vs 0.915), K/BB ratio (1.44 vs 3.09), GO/AO ratio (0.47 vs 0.58), and FIP (4.45 vs 3.25). While I'm not saying that he's someone to be wary of (he had a very off month of June, which could account for a lot of inflation), owners should be aware also that Feliz's name has been brought up in the trade rumor mills. My advice is to ride Neftali for what he's worth this year, keep a backup option (always wise advice all the same), and if you need to part with him, try to get good value based on overall numbers (plus the fact that he was the '10 Rookie of the Year) and not on a rocky month of June.
• The "Unsung Hero" of the week is the Twins' Joe Nathan. This year's been rough on both Nathan and the Twins in general. Minnesota's found themselves down near the bottom of the pack since the early season, being feasted upon by the injury bug; Nathan being one of the big names to go down for the Twinkies back in May with a right flexor strain. He wound up being out of the lineup for about a month; there was no reason to rush Nathan back, being a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. His first month and a half this season was forgettable, as the rust was obvious. But then the Twins started to pick up their pace and win games, the pack in the AL Central started to close, and Nathan came back in late June. In the 10 games since his return, he's been nothing short of stellar: 2-for-3 in saves, six holds, 9.1 IP, one run on four hits, zero walks, seven Ks. A lot of folks may have sold the farm on Nathan when he went on the DL (or earlier, fearing he wouldn't ever be the same post-surgery), but Matt Capps' implosion as the Twins' closer opens the door for a resurging Nathan. Obviously picking up Nathan at this point won't get you his hold numbers, but it will get you a pitcher that's thrown up a .344 OPS, a .125 BAbip, and a 0.429 WHIP since coming off the DL. And while those numbers are a lot to sustain for the rest of the campaign, the Twins being back in the race will have them leaning on Nathan much more now, giving him plenty of chances to excel and show his stuff from years past.
• My pick for the "Heart Attack Award", as much as it pains me to say it, is my Indians' own Vinnie Pestano (thought I was gonna say Chris "Pure Rage" Perez, didn't you?). The "Bullpen Mafia" has been the key to Cleveland's upstart success this season so far, and "Capo" Pestano has been one of the huge lifts that have allowed the 'pen to be so successful. His recent outings, however, have been offers that fantasy owners could refuse. Over his last 10 games, he's amassed a hefty 7.56 ERA (8.1 IP, 7 ER) on nine hits, three walks and 14 Ks. He was 2-for-3 in saves in the period with three holds. It's entirely possible that this is a bump in the road in a very young career (this being Pestano's first full year in the Majors). It will be interesting to keep watch, however. Considering the ineffectiveness of starters Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot (whom is on the DL at this time), the recent struggles of Carlos Carrasco, and the continued absence of promising rookie hurler Alex White, the Tribe bullpen will likely see a lot of work in the coming games as the rotation is jury-rigged together. Will the young guns hold it together? Or will lack of innings prior to all this work this year come back to bite 'em in the rear? Stay tuned on that. As for Pestano, I would advise getting him for depth in your advanced leagues. He's always good to pull holds out of the air (13 on the year), can back up Chris Perez in case of needing saves (he's come in in 18 save situations), and his deeper numbers (0.963 WHIP, .550 OPS, .260 BAbip, and 2.33 FIP) trend towards his recent issues being just blips on the radar screen.
• This week's "ZOMBIE!" was a little hard to pick out. And while I hate to kick a guy while he's down, I felt that Kevin Gregg of the Baltimore Orioles was probably the worst guy in the last little while. His last 10 games fleshed out like so: 9.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 Sv. His overall stats for the season? Not much better: 36 IP, 16 ER, 33 H, 24 BB, 31 K, 15/19 Sv. Digging deeper, I find some disturbing trends: As of right now, his WHIP (1.583), SO/BB ratio (1.29), and OPS (.769) are lining up to be the worst in his career. His FIP (4.69) is his second worst, with only his '09 Cubs campaign surpassing that (4.93). Maybe this suspension will help get Gregg's head on straight and salvage his '11 campaign. Or, maybe Koji Uehara will step up and make the Orioles' decision once Gregg comes off suspension a little harder. And maybe, just maybe, Gregg will learn how to throw a punch.

Be sure to tune in each Thursday for the NL side of things.

As always, you can hit up in the comment link below or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Waiver Saviors: July 14th, 2011

Three days without baseball games that matter and one of those days without an internet connection at home has me feeling like I've been through some sort of fantasy baseball detox program against my will. Who organized this intervention? (Probably my wife and kids).

If you're in a league that doesn't suck, now is the time to start evaluating each player on your roster to determine if they are part of the problem or part of the solution.

Let's take a look at some players possibly available on your league's waiver wire who could help your team bring home some fantasy baseball glory.

• OF Nate Schierholtz, SF (30% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) is hitting .425 (17/40) with a .700 SLG in the month of July with three home runs and eight RBI. His first half 5x5 line of .293/30/7/31/5 could easily be duplicated in the second half depending, though, if the Giants are buyers or sellers as the Trade Deadline approaches. Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell must go.
• OF Ben Revere, MIN (9.3% ESPN; 4% Yahoo!) was June's co-winner of the AL Rookie of the Month award with a .294 batting average and seven stolen bases. With Jason Kubel and Denard Span still on the DL, Revere should continue to get a chance to showcase his stuff. Target him for his ability to score runs and steal bases without killing your team's batting average while sacrificing home runs and power.
• RP Bobby Parnell, NYM (33.7% ESPN; 25% Yahoo!) and Jason Isringhausen, NYM (10.6% ESPN; 14% Yahoo!) could both be in the mix for saves and holds as a result of the Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaulkee trade. Ownership rates suggests fantasy owners are gambling on Parnell becoming the closer. If you're desperate for saves, grab whoever is available until it all shakes out. Both are must-owns in leagues using holds as a scoring category.
• RP Javy Guerra, LAD (18.5% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) seems to be the Dodgers' closer du jour. He's recorded their last two saves while striking out three over two innings pitched. A save is a save is a save. Pounce now and dump later, if necessary.
• OF Travis Snider, TOR (33.2% ESPN; 26% Yahoo!) has been on fire since his recall from AAA. In seven games, he's hitting .367 (11/30) with six doubles, one home run, eight RBI and six runs scored. A very productive second half could easily be a reality for him.
• 1B Casey Kotchman, TB (6.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is hitting .336 with a .394 OBP in 75 games this season. He won't bring much else on offense (3 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R) but could be a very nice fit as a CI, DH or UTIL player for a team needing a batting average boost in a deep league.
• C/1B Mike Napoli, TEX (65% ESPN; 72% Yahoo!) is worth checking your waiver wire for just in case he was dropped during his stint on the DL and is still lingering out there. In six games since his return from the DL, he has two home runs, eight RBI and a .316 batting average. He may only get four to five starts a week but for a player with catcher eligibility, he's a must own.

This may not be the "sexiest" group of names you'd hope to find when reading a "waivers" article but these are players who can help you make up ground or stay on top of the standings right now. Keeper and dynasty leagues have a very different set of challenges than the more common one-and-done leagues. Players like Mike Trout and Pedro Beato would certainly be worthy of a mention but I don't think either player is going to help you win your league this year. And I am a big believer of playing to win now while worrying about keepers once I'm out of the running or in the off season.

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 13th, 2011.

The Knurve To Say: July 11th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...the Braves are about to begin a dynasty.

Hey, the article isn’t called “The Knurve to Say” for no reason! I was having a conversation with one of my buddies who’s a Braves fan the other day. As we were talking about this team, I kept getting more and more shocked when I kept talking about how good this team is and how young they are.

Let’s start with the pitching. Sure, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are getting up there in years. But when you think about Jair Jurrjens (25), Tommy Hanson (24), and Brandon Beachy (24), there’s elite potential in each of those guys. And don’t forget about the two guys the Braves have in AAA right now. Mike Minor is only 23 and Julio Teheran is 20! Twenty years old and he’s already tasted the majors. They also have one guy in AA named Randall Delgado who the Braves consider a top 3 prospect in their own system and he's 21. And we haven’t even gotten to who I think is the best of these prospects, Kris Medlen. If you’ll remember, Medlen got hurt at the end of last year and needed Tommy John surgery after getting hit by a batted ball. I think this could dramatically help his career because it wasn’t like there was THAT much structural damage to the elbow and the Braves were just being cautious. With basically a new arm, Medlen could be scary in the next few years.

When we look at their bullpen, Jonny Venters is 26 and he has some of the best stuff in the majors. Craig Kimbrel, 23, looks like a competent closer of the future with a big arm and great stuff. Eric O’Flaherty is another middle relief guy who is just 26 with an ERA sitting at 1.10 at the halfway point this season.

The hitting is not as promising as the pitching, but it’s still pretty darn good. Jason Heyward is only going to get better in the next few years and he will anchor this offense for a very long time. I don’t see Freddie Freeman getting much better than he is now but I can see him being a solid 25/100 guy who is a good defender and will hit in the .290-.300 range for his career. Brian McCann is only 27, but people think he’s much older since he’s been in the league for five years now. I also have to think this year is an aberration for Dan Uggla. None of his peripherals indicate a decline and his game is pretty straightforward. He’s an abnormally large man playing a relatively evasive position and I can see him performing well for the duration of his contract.

Those four guys are still very young and have enormous potential. I think the Braves have let Beachy, Minor, Teheran, and Medlan taste the majors at such a young age so they can use them as chips to make moves to shore up their offense long-term. I trust Frank Wren and I trust the Braves brand of clean and consistent baseball. They show up and get the job done, and with their youthful and talented arms, the outlook for this franchise is among the brightest in the game.

My opinion: I’ll arbitrarily say the Braves win four World Series this decade if everybody stays healthy. Why the hell not?

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I’d be remiss if I didn't mention the tragedy in Texas last week. I can’t imagine how terrible that family feels, especially the man’s son. There’s nothing good about this situation but it seems like the Texas Rangers are handling this very supportively and professionally. Hopefully some good will come of this despite it being such a terrible situation.
• Hanley Ramirez is back. Get him if you can.
• Uggla’s catching on. I think last year really spoiled Uggla owners as to his potential. Remember, before last year, he was a .250 hitter who would get his 30 home runs and 95+ RBI. In July, he’s been a .250 hitter with two dingers and five RBI. His final line will look like .230 or so, but that means he’s going to have a big second half.
• Joey Votto is overrated. Sure he’s posting an elite slash line (.325/.440/.510). Sure he’s walking a ton and scoring runs. But when push comes to shove, he’s on pace for 25 HR/100 RBI. And while fantasy owners aren't upset with those numbers, people who have drafted guys like Ryan Howard and Paul Konerko for much cheaper are getting better numbers at a much better value.
• Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre and Emilio Bonifacio are all speedsters I’m buying right now. If you can get them for cheap, have at it.
• Given J. J. Putz’s injury history the past few years, if you have David Hernandez and you have space on your bench, hang onto him. He’s been cash money for the past two weeks and he’s worth keeping around.

The Mike Stanton Man-crush Meter was at a 3 last week. Many of you know I was very disappointed in Mike ‘the skull crusher’ Stanton, but he put together quite a week last week. I’m going to put it back up to a 5 this week. It would be a 6, but one of his homers went less than 400 feet and if I’m going to invest some of my love in another man, he’s going to need to hit every homer more than 400 feet. It’s that simple.

Joke of the week: Hot Dog walks into a bar, bartender says “we don’t serve food here.”

Have a great week everybody! Follow me @TheKnurve with questions or comments and follow fellow contributor @JCPronkFan48 for all things relief pitching-related.

Line of the Day: July 8th, 2011

Mike Napoli of the Texas Rangers went 3-for-4 with a grand slam in an 8-5 victory over the Oakland A's. It was his third career grand slam.

Line: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 4 RBI; 2 2B, HR (GS)

My fantasy perspective: Napoli should have been a dominant fantasy catcher in 2011 but with only 51 games played so far, some have deemed him a disappointment. His .237 batting average isn't helping your team any but the 12 home runs have him on pace for a run at 25-30.

Just 48.6% owned in ESPN leagues and 68% in Yahoo!, Napoli has value slotted in as a catcher. He's currently ranked as the ninth-best fantasy catcher. He's also eligible at first base and has additional value in deeper leagues utilizing a CI, IF and/or multiple DH or utility roster spots. Take the good with the bad when it comes to a player with the power potential of Napoli and find a place for him on your team unless you're in the shallowest of leagues.

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Line of the Day: July 7th, 2011

Derek Holland pitched a four-hit shutout in a 6-0 victory over the Oakland A's in a game marred by the tragic death of a fan falling from the stands. My condolences go out to his family.

Line: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K; W, QS, CG, SHO

My fantasy perspective: Holland has flashed signs of dominance at times this season but has been too inconsistent, having only recorded a quality start in nine of his 18 starts, yet two of those nine were complete game shutouts. He's widely available in ESPN (8.1% owned) and Yahoo! (23% owned), so you shouldn't need to make a decision on ownership until he proves to be more consistent.

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

The Knurve's American League All-Star Ballot

Shalom Everybody!

Ever since they made the All-Star game "mean something" by having it decide homefield in the World Series, I've had mixed feelings about the game. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the person the San Francisico Giants have to thank the most for winning last year's World Series (not getting there) is not Tim Lincecum, not Cody Ross, not Brian Wilson, not even Brian Wilson's beard, but......Brian McCann?!?!?

McCann's bases clearing double in the All-Star game propelled the NL to victory and gave the Giants homefield where Jonathan Sanchez, Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain were stupendous last year. I should also mention that I'm a huge believer in the Home Run Derby ruining a players swing for the second half, so I never want my fantasy hombres to be in the contest. I will say I'm looking forward to the bombs that are going to be dropped in Arizona.

So it is with this frustration in mind that I give you my American League All-Star starters, but I'll have two names under each position. The first name is who it WILL be and the second name is who it SHOULD/COULD be, just like this game SHOULD/COULD be an exhibition. If I say it "should be", then you know I feel strongly about the 2nd name, but if I say "could be" then you know a case could be made.

Catcher
It will be: Victor Martinez
He qualifies there, so it will be him. This one's all in the name for Victor. He is not the best catcher on his team (hint, hint...) but he's hitting solidly over .320 and is producing runs at a pretty solid clip. His production is a big reason the Detroit Tigers are in good shape to take a very winnable division.

It should be: Alex Avila
Now Avila is the best catcher on the Tigers and he's having a breakout year. I passed on the chance to pick him up in one of my leagues in favor of Wilson Ramos, and that's been my biggest regret so far this fantasy season. He's showing great flashses of power, has 10-steal potential, and is an even bigger reason than Martinez, and maybe even Miguel Cabrera, that the Tigers are where they are. Avila is the MVP of the Tigers this season because without his production, this team would be as average as every other team in the AL Central seems.

First Base
It will be: Adrian Gonzalez
This one is pretty straighforward. Gonzalez has been the most complete hitter in the AL and it's not even close. He's scoring runs, hitting for power, hitting for average, driving runs in at a ridiculous clip, and has carried the Red Sox, at times. People forget that he started somewhat slow, hitting a paltry .314 in April. What? David? That's not paltry!!! It is when you consider he hit .341 in May and .404 in June with 15 dingers in those two months. The man is a stud.

It should be: Paul Konerko
This is not a knock on Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Mark Teixeira at all, but Konerko has done everything but steal bases for the White Sox when the rest of their offense has been as useless as bacon to someone who keeps kosher. Like V-Mart, it's refreshing to see Konerko put these past two seasons together and bounce back to the stud he was when the White Sox won it all last decade. Think about the White Sox offensive potential in Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham. When you consider none of those guys have been hitting and it's been Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin keeping this underperforming team in the race. Many players can fold under that pressure, but Konerko has excelled.

Second Base
It will be: Robinson Cano
I don't have many qualms with this. I have really enjoyed watching Cano's career blossom in the way that it has. He hit .342 in his second full year in the bigs with just 15 homers. He has evolved his game to hit for power and not feel like he has to pull everything, which I think is rare for a young player who is entering his prime. I also like the fact that Cano was a homegrown Yankee. The fact that he came from their farm system is refreshing. He's hovered around .300 the whole season despite not being the most patient hitter, but he makes it work. This is a pretty clear choice.

It could be: Ian Kinsler
I only say this because Kinsler is Jewish. Just kidding. Seriously though, when Kinsler is healthy, he gives such an unbelievable boost to the Texas Rangers. His batting average is down a little bit this year, but with double digit homers and steals, already. His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career mark, so I can see him having a big second half if he's healthy. His run production is also down, but there's only so much he can do since he's been leading off five out of every six games.

Shortstop
It will be: Asdrubal Cabrera
He's been the rock of the overperforming Indians offense. He's been hitting for power, stealing bases and simply doing it all for the Cleveland Indians. I don't think there's much of an argument here. Jeter's days as an All-Star are done. Who better to fill his shoes than a player as similar to him as Cabrera. Cabrera has a touch more power than Jeter did but he's also a stud defensively, which us fantasy players have to take into account, as boring as that may be.

It could be: Jhonny Peralta
There are a lot of options here, including J. J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus, but I think Peralta has been a critical performer for the Tigers. He's on pace for around 25 HR/95 RBI and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. If you told the Tigers at the beginning of the season these would be Peralta's halfway stats, then they'd have given you a hot dog. Chubby Jhonny Peralta could be eating tons of hot dogs in Arizona.

Third Base
It will be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any argument here? He is head and shoulders better than any other third baseman in the AL. This is the weakest position, by far, in fantasy and the majors this year, so what's to argue with here? I chronicled in one of my "Knurve to Say" articles that Bautista was having a brutal June, but his April and May will put him in the All-Star game. He's on pace for 10 steals, he takes walks, scores runs, he does it all. I boldly predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to get the Wildcard, and I truly believe this team has it all. Bautista is the anchor.

It should be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any arguing here? Sure Alex Rodriguez has a case, but I can't see any possible scenario where America would feel A-Rod gets the nod over Bautista, who is finally getting the recognition for what he's been doing.

Outfield
It will be: Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki
I'll start with the two locks: Granderson and Ellsbury. Is there even any question? These two guys are studs who you got for pretty cheap on draft day compared to the levels they have performed. AL Outfield is so weak this season that these two are shoo-ins. The pragmatist in me wants to be realistic and say Ichiro's going to get the votes to become an All-Star because he always does. He is starting to pick it back up, so it's not a completely lame assertion. B. J. Upton has hit 11 more dingers with the same number of steals and significantly worse batting average, so it might be six of one half a dozen of the other.

It should be: Granderson, Ellsbury and Upton
As for Upton, people want to rip on his batting average, and that's pretty easy because it's THAT terrible, but if you look at his counting stats, he's on pace for another 25 HR/45 SB season, which makes the batting average much easier to swallow. Considering the other possible names for this list are Alex Gordon and Brennan Boesch, I think we can be confident in this tandem.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Justin Verlander
I think Verlander is well-liked enough across the country that he has to be the favorite here. As much as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will garner a ton of votes, I'd hope baseball fans can appreciate Verlander's dominance this season. With this being another "Year of the Pitcher", it's not easy to pick this spot, but Verlander leads the majors in K's, WHIP, and Wins. His ERA is a full run higher than Weaver's, but the defense behind Verlander is 24th in the majors in Fielding Percentage whereas the Angels are 4th in the AL (8th in the majors).

It could be: Jered Weaver
There's certainly a great case to be made for Weaver. His April was Zack Greinke-esque (circa 2009) and he has established himself as a dominant starter in the AL. Along with Verlander, he's proven himself durable and reliable. Aside from one slight hiccup against the Indians, he's been as good as they come. When you're 6'7", throwing downhill is much better, especially when you're able to locate your off-speed stuff as well as he has.

So there it is... thoughts? Tweet me @TheKnurve. I'd love some feedback!
-David Kaplan

Playing the Name Game

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" takes another look at player comparisons without knowing their names. Name recognition tends to sway our interpretation of a player's overall fantasy value. This exercise in player evaluating will help you find some waiver wire gems who are being overlooked by others in your leagues.

I'll run through a few of these comparisons (using standard 5x5 categories) for your fantasy baseball viewing pleasure and hopefully give you something to mull over as you assess your roster(s). NOTE: All statistics quoted are for games played through June 8th, 2011 and ownership numbers are from ESPN leagues.

• Player A: .310 BA (57/184), 29 R, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 2 SB
• Player B: .316 BA (55/174), 25 R, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB

Okay, not much difference here when you compare simple 5x5 lines. Too be fair, both players qualify at the same position. A deeper look into their numbers show Player A has 20 XBH and Player B has 22 XBH. Player B has walked 20 times while Player A has 19 walks. Hmmmm. Player A has a .890 OPS compared to Player B's .918 OPS. Still looking like pretty even players across the board. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .345 BABIP, a .389 wOBA and a wRC+ of 145 while Player B has a .324 BABIP, a .396 wOBA and a wRC+ of 143. These guys are virtually twins of the baseball diamond. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Mitch Moreland and Player B is Todd Helton.

My fantasy perspective: Are you ready to know the stark difference between these two players? Moreland is 100% owned compared to Helton's 51% ownership rate. Moreland is looked upon as a young player on an offensively potent team with tons of potential while Helton is viewed as a player with injury concerns on the downside of his player career. The numbers tell us different.

• Player A: .293 BA (63/215), 34 R, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 9 SB
• Player B: .265 BA (58/219), 39 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 5 SB

Again, to be fair for comparison reasons, these two players both qualify at the same position. Player A has a significant advantage in batting average and nearly twice the stolen bases than Player B while the other three scoring categories can be considered a wash to this point in the season. Each player has 21 XBH but Player B has a significant 34 to 10 advantage in walks over Player A. Let's go SABR via FanGraphs. Player A has a .341 BABIP, a .335 wOBA and a wRC+ of 111 while Player B has a .317 BABIP, a .357 wOBA and a wRC+ of 127. Not a ton of difference here and I can see making a case to own either of these players. It's time for the reveal. Player A is Corey Patterson and Player B is Colby Rasmus.

My fantasy perspective: When I hear Patterson's name, I think of a player who hasn't had much of a career since 2008. But a deeper look into his Baseball-Refernce.com player page shows a 2004 season where he went 24/32 (HR/SB) and a 2006 season of 16/45. I'm not suggesting he's going to put up numbers like those in 2011 at 31 years of age but he has proven the ability to produce at the major league level. Rasmus is a 24 year old fantasy stud with many great seasons ahead of him and who deserves his 100% ownership rate but why is Patterson only owned in 69.2% of leagues?

This simple exercise of looking at the scoring category numbers that matter in your league and searching the waiver wires for the players who can fill those needs will make your team better. The hard part is knowing when to cut ties with the players with obvious name recognition for the players possibly available on waivers who can help your team win. And knowing is half the battle.

Line of the Day: May 16th, 2011

SP Colby Lewis of the Texas Rangers pitched a complete game, five-hitter for his first career shutout in a 4-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox. Lewis struck out seven and walked just one while recording his third career complete game. He's evened his record to 4-4 and dropped his ERA to 3.81 and WHIP to 1.14 on the season.

Line: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

My fantasy perspective: Lewis seems to have turned things around after a rough start. In his first four starts of the season, he was 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA in 22 innings, giving up 24 hits, 17 ER with a 14:10 K:BB ratio. In his last four starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in 32.1 innings, allowing 24 hits, just 6 ER with a 24:4 K:BB ratio. Check your leagues waivers, he's owned in 71.6% of ESPN leagues and 58% of Yahoo! leagues. He should be owned in all formats.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards here.