Fantasy Baseball Investment Market: It's a Sellers Market!

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians
Why would you move your ace for prospects? Only reason it makes sense is that you are trying to sell high. I've been saying all season long that Ubaldo is not the same pitcher he was before the All-Star break last season. Yes, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season but the same can be said of any starting pitcher in the game. If you can find a manager who feels that a change of scenery is just what Jimenez needs to get back on track…take advantage. There is nothing suggesting the Ubaldo of old is coming back soon, if ever. Colorado was smart to unload him while he still held value. You'd be smart to do the same.

SELL Ubaldo has been showing signs of wear of tear since last season. His velocity has been notably down all of 2011. I still maintain there is an injury hiding somewhere. Unfortantely for Cleveland, it still hasn't presented itself.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
"The Freak" has traditionally had terrible Augusts but his performances leading up to the month have usually been money in the bank. This season, he's starting to show signs of weakness.

The first red flag is his walk rates have increased in each of the past three seasons:
2009 2.72 BB9 / 7.5 BB%
2010 3.22 BB9 / 8.5 BB%
2011 3.56 BB9 / 9.6 BB%

In addition, his K/9 (still at elite levels) are trending downward:
2009 10.42
2010 9.79
2011 9.64

Anytime I see pitcher with trends opposite of what I want to see, I get nervous. If I see that pitcher's bottom line being affected by the aforementioned, I start to panic. Lincecum already has nine losses this season. He had ten losses last season and only seven losses the year before. If you can unload him based on name value alone, do it. If you're in a keeper league, I still suggest the same course of action.

SELL! The leak in the hull is still small enough that many probably haven't noticed yet. This ship is going down.

Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox
You don't need me to tell you Crawford has been a major bust this season. You don't need me to tell you that Crawford has always had trouble with left-handed pitching. Did you know: Fenway has generally provided major trouble for left-handed hitters in the past? He left his comfy situation in Tropicana for a payday with a chance at winning it all with Boston. He may get his ring but he won't be the reason why the Red Sox win one.

2009 672PA / 15HR / 60SB / .305AVG / .816OPS
2010 663PA / 19HR / 47SB / .307AVG / .851OPS
2011 338PA / 7HR / 12SB / .245AVG / .659OPS

In 2011, he's hitting .139 vs LHP / .292 vs RHP and .250 Home / .238 Away
In 2010, he hit .254 vs LHP / .329 vs RHP and .295 Home / .311 Away
In 2009, he hit .269 vs LHP / .322 vs RHP and .295 Home / .315 Away

This is a guy whose value lies not only in his speed but in his ability to hit for power. If you take away his 20 HR potential and .800+ OPS, he's merely a high priced Michael Bourn. Take away his speed and he's practically worthless in fantasy. In some circles, his name value and previous draft position may still hold weight. If this is the case and you can sell him fifty-cents on the dollar, you should do it. Yes, he was slightly injured some this season but his struggles began long before we started to hear any excuses for poor performance. This is not a player who is going to rebound anytime soon.

2011 (by month)
March/April 1 HR / 4 SB / .155 BA
May 3 HR / 3 SB / .301 BA
June 2 HR / 1 SB / .278 BA
July 0 HR / 4 SB / .250 BA
August 1 HR / 0 SB / .250 BA

SELL! A speed/power guy with limited power and no speed who can't hit lefties and plays in a lefty killing park is worth what to you? Get rid of him.

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Investment Market: Buy, Sell and Hold: July 20th, 2011

Players in fantasy are merely investments. We each draft our team and try in earnest to make trades and waiver picks to maximize the value of our team. I no longer see Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez. I see the only three players currently in MLB who have shown the tools to actually reach 40/40 club (I will publish a special article on this as Kemp continues to approach the lofty goal.). That epitomizes a blue chip stock in fantasy baseball. I will continue to draft all three of them ahead of most players each and every season until they display trends to suggest otherwise. In order to play the fantasy game you need to know who to BUY, SELL and HOLD as the long season unwinds. Each Wednesday I will explore three players based on where their values are heading. This week I will examine a nosediving Hanley Ramirez, who I sold about four weeks ago in three leagues. I will salivate over Andrew McCutchen, who I have failed to obtain in any of my four leagues. Lastly, I will review the astounding GB% of Charlie Morton and weigh its affect when compared to his control issues.

Hanley Ramirez (27)
You've likely read about the low percentage of line drives, highest GB% (he's not alone here), ISO below league average, not hitting fastballs, etc. Many experts claim they didn't see this coming and they have no idea why this is happening. This is exactly why i don't listen to most so-called experts.

I'm not a scout and I don't have the luxury of knowing exactly what goes on in the trainers room. What I do know is that the trending hasn't been pretty for some time now. 2011 will mark the fourth straight season in which his power numbers have dropped. In 2008, he hit 33 HR, followed by 24, and then 21 in 2010. Hanley burst onto the scene swiping 51 bases his first two seasons, followed by a steady hold in the 30 range. The speed seems to have held steady this season as the power numbers continue to dip.

Year	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
2008	33	35	0.239	0.940
2009	24	27	0.201	0.954
2010	21	32	0.175	0.853
2011	9	17	0.140	0.742

Hanley has been a top pick for several years now. As a shortstop, he needs to continue to hit for power in order to hold his place atop the draft value pool. Without 20 HR pop, he's just a another speedy middle infielder. How overvalued is he?

MI	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
A	17	12	0.206	0.838
B	11	10	0.206	0.834
C	17	12	0.222	0.801

(A) Asdrubal Cabrera (B) Ben Zobrist (C) Danny Espinosa

If you can sell Hanley over his next hot streak I would do it. I would even sell .75 on the dollar if you have to. He may bounce back next season when the Marlins move into the new ball park, but current trending suggests the power has been slowing for several years now. At such a young age, this is troubling indeed. SELL

Andrew McCutchen (24)
At the time of this writing article, the Pirates are in first place in the NL Central. Andrew has been a large part of the newfound success in Pittsburgh. We already know he was a high profile prospect and we all expected him to provide five category goodness for fantasy managers. He has arrived. He's still crazy young too. In keeper and dynasty leagues, he's a golden nugget who you must own.

Year	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
2009	12	22	0.185	0.836
2010	16	33	0.163	0.814
2011	14	15	0.209	0.867

We know how scarce a true 30/30 player is in baseball. Andrew is on target this season. We also need to keep in mind that players who steal 30+ bases seldom provide enough pop in their bats to be in the .800 OPS range. We're looking at a future five category stud who will carry fantasy teams for years to come. How good is McCutchen so far this season?

OF	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
A	24	27	0.275	0.983
B	15	14	0.204	0.846
C	13	16	0.19	0.829

(A) Matt Kemp (B) Justin Upton (C) Carlos Gonzalez

IF you can somehow pry McCutchen from any owner, you should. He could eventually get injured by playing all-out defense, so use that in your sales pitch. Bottom line, this kid is going to hit or come close to 30/30 this season and should continue to provide plenty of five category goodness for several more years to come. BUY

Charlie Morton (27)
If I was told before the season began we'd have another Pirate in my inaugural article I'd have told everyone they were sniffing glue. I can tell you to hold onto Cargo, but isn't that obvious? Morton is a very interesting investment right now for several reasons. First, he's playing for what could be "THE" up and coming team in baseball right now. They just drafted two spectacular pitchers and stole a couple of hitters in the draft. Should they sign everyone by the deadline, things could be scary in Pittsburgh very soon. Neil Huntington is saving this team from many years of misery.

Secondly, you have to look at Morton's 61.1 GB% this season. Why is this important? You can not hit a HR off a guy who induces the Ground Ball at a rate like Morton. As long as the Pirates continue to sport sufficient defensive play behind him he will continue to be a dangerous presence on the mound. His GB/FB is 3.52. This is insane.

It's hard to pin down what to expect from a guy who has just rebuilt himself. In deeper leagues, he needs to be owned and possibly targeted depending on your specific needs. He's not going to provide a ton of K's but he does have a respectable stat line so far this season.

102 IP | 8 W | 60 K | 40 BB | 110 H | 0.26 HR/9 | 3.62 ERA | 3.49 FIP

You may ask why he's not a strong buy? His 71.6% LOB is a red flag, and his 3.53 BB rate is far too high compared to his low 5.29 K rate. His 1.47 WHIP is much too high for him to continue to rely on the double play. That said, he could harness his control and become someone worthy of fantasy stardom. Morton is one of the most intriguing players in fantasy at the moment. If he limits the walks to the 3.0 range and gets his K rate over 6, he could become very good. If the BB rate falls under 3.0 and the K rate enters the 7.0/9 IP territory, he will be a star. HOLD


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