Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition: August 5th, 2011

Welcome back! Apologies for the lateness of the article... Things outside of COSFBA have been a little hectic lately and I've been somewhat under the weather myself (damn heat wave). I'll endeavor to keep things as close to normal as possible here, though likely shorter.

There's been very little movement Waiver Wire-wise with the back end of the 'pens since the first of the month. The Mike Adams trade was the biggest one and it did shake up the Padres' bullpen.  However, who knows what the next few weeks will hold.

Let's have a review of last week's names:

• Brian Wilson only appeared in two games over the last week, due to blow-outs both by and against the Giants. He picked up a save and a loss in 1.1 innings, giving up a run on three hits while walking one and striking out two. Friday's game was the first game he allowed a run since before the All-Star Break, so we shouldn't read anything more into it than a closer having an off night.
• Adams was shuttled off from the San Diego Padres to the Texas Rangers. While it's hard to judge a trade this early, especially across leagues, here's the splits: in his last appearance with the Padres, he pitched an inning allowing a hit and a strikeout. He got the hold in that game. In his first appearance with the Rangers, he pitched an inning allowing a run and two hits, getting a punchout and allowing a walk. Like with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, it's going to be hard to see immediate impact when coming from the opposite league. Once he has time to adjust (3-to-4 weeks, in my opinion), he should be back to near-dominance.
• Antonio Bastardo wound up in four games in the last week, winning two and picking up two holds. He only gave up a run on three hits in 3.1 innings, fanning four. He did allow a longball in last night's 8-6 win over Colorado, but such a thing is a rarity this season (he's only allowed three on the season). His and Ryan Madson's work are pivotal to keep Philly atop the NL East.
• Henry Rodriguez worked in a little longer relief last week, logging 4.1 innings in two games. He gave up a run on a hit, walking one and striking out five. There haven't been any clear or consistent signs of his performances improving; flashes here and there. There might be continued hope for him, but right now all signs point to not much improvement.

 Now, let's get some names out there for this week:

• "Doing Work" - J.J. Putz (ARI): J.J. has been having a solid season as the D-Backs closer, helping keep them within a game of the Division-leading (and World Champion) Giants. His last week reads dominantly: 2.2 innings pitched in three appearances, zero runs on three hits with a walk. He grabbed three saves, running his season total to 25. He is coming off the DL after to a right elbow injury, and isn't showing any ill-effects aside from a slight drop in fastball velocity (1 MPH) which right now could be contributed to 'rust'. The D-Backs had no problems throwing him in three straight games, but will likely rest him for a bit and let Arizona's solid set-up man David Hernandez close as needed. Expect that trend to continue for likely the next month as Putz works his arm (and elbow) back to shape and normal routine. J.J. will still be good for late innings, and will be relied upon for the high-leverage situations as the hunt for the Playoffs builds to a climax.
• "Unsung Hero" - Heath Bell (SD): While the Padres are pretty well out of the hunt for the Playoffs this year, you wouldn't know it looking at Heath. 30+ saves with a sub-2.50 ERA, hitters batting .210 against him. Last week's line reads brilliantly as well: three games, three innings, no runs, one hit, three punchouts. Most of this with the trade winds swirling around him and Mike Adams (who was the eventual 'odd man out'), and in the midst of a relatively dreadful San Diego season. The Padres have been playing a little better lately than their record indicates, and Buddy Black is not a manager to "mail-in" a season, so expect Heath to get plenty of work in for the rest of the year. He'll make it all count, even though it may be way too late to bail out the leaky boat of the '11 San Diego Padres season.
• "Heart-Attack Award" - Jason Isringhausen (NYM): Izzy got roughed up over his last week. He appeared in four games, four innings pitched. He allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and saved two games. He's up to 298 saves on his career, and I will stand behind him getting #300 on a Mets uniform (there were some trade winds swirling for him, and some still say he might still move over the Waiver Wire). However, he isn't a spring chicken anymore. New York is still on the outside edge of a Wild-Card spot, and will be playing like it. Izzy's in line to log more innings in a season than he has since his '07 Cardinals campaign, and it's going to wear on his arm pretty good at this point. The Mets seem to be riding Izzy for all he's worth, and I'm looking to see a fade within the next month and a half. Whether they stick it out with Izzy, or use a fresher (and younger) Bobby Parnell for the stretch run, will be decided by the standings.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Rex Brothers (COL):The Colorado Rockies setup man has been having a first year in the Big Leagues to... well... remember, but probably not for the reasons he'd want to. Up until the last week, he was running along pretty well. But then this happened: four appearances, three innings, six runs, five hits, two walks, six Ks. That equals out to two losses and a blown save. While there's pretty much nothing to go on (3 years of Minors work), Rex is next-in-line for the closer role, apparently by his merits. He's on-pace to pitch more innings than he has in pretty much any level of the Minors. Brothers could either be reduced in workload, or shut down completely because of it. It's extremely difficult to predict future performance on a rookie, so I would have to say that Rex is a "wait til next year" candidate and find your holds elsewhere.

Here's hoping for a return to normal next week!

Warming In The 'Pen: NL Edition

Well, well, well...Wednesday was a big day in the land of baseball. A bombshell of a deal sending Carlos Beltran to the World Champion San Francisco Giants, a massive three-way exchange involving 11 players in all. Yesterday had Kosuke Fukudome heading to Cleveland to shore up the outfield (a move on which I might have more to say). With just two days left til the Trading Deadline, there's bound to be plenty more 'shock and awe' to come. I'm sure there will be updates as we go along.

As it is, let's go over last week's names:

• John Axford continues to impress, knocking out three saves in three games. Three innings of work saw him give up two hits, striking out three and walking no one. A very solid week for the youngster as the Brew-Crew fight off three other teams for the top spot in the NL Central.
• Jason Isringhausen appeared in two games and saved both. He now has 296 saves on his career. He gave up a hit, a walk, and two knockouts in two innings of work. Bobby Parnell has been rocky over the past few games, so I believe that Izzy is going to be the go-to closer. That is, unless a move gets made. Beltran's already been let go by the Not-So-Mighty Mets. We won't know if they're in full fire-sale mode until Sunday.
• Fernando Salas worked two innings this past week, allowing one hit and one walk, fanning four and notching two saves. The Cards are only a half-game out from the above-mentioned Brewers, and so long as Fernando continues his solid performances, St. Louis will be in the race for the rest of the season.
• Carlos Marmol was seen in three games (2.2 IP), giving up three hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. Sean Marshall seems to have the lead as the "closer for the moment" on the Cubs staff, and it looks like Carlos will be in a set-up role until his mechanics are right. He could be good for a few cheap and easy holds in the interim.

With all that said and done, here's this week's award "winners":

• "Doing Work" - Brian Wilson (SF): Since his little dugout meltdown on the 1st of the month, "The Beard" has been on a tear. In his last ten appearances (ten innings pitched) since he threw down with that Gatorade cooler, he's saved eight games, giving up two runs on seven hits in the process. He's walked four, but stuck out nine in the span. With the Giants' acquisition of Carlos Beltran, the front office is showing its seriousness and intent on thinking "repeat" this year. Contention, especially late-season, will depend on Wilson being his freaky self (all apologies to the REAL Freak, Tim Lincecum) at the back-end of the San Fran 'pen. Career-wise, Brian's heading into his best month of the season: He carries a 1.26 ERA in the month of August on his career, .555 OPS, .286 BAbip, and a strong 1.158 WHIP. This is very promising for a team that's picked up a huge bat for an offense looking desperately for help. While a boost in offense might trim down The Beard's save chances, Beltran will not solve all the Giants' O woes. Wilson will still be in the top five in saves, and likely be a catalyst to another push to the Playoffs for the City By The Bay.
• "Unsung Hero" - Mike Adams (SD): Though the Padres are well-removed from playoff contention, but you wouldn't know it by looking at Adams. He has been having a sensational year, along the lines of Joakim Soria for the Royals on the AL side of the fence. In the last week of work, Mike didn't allow a single run, gave up two hits, and no walks. He's also notched four knockouts and two holds. Sporting a 1.15 ERA on the season, Adams deeper numbers are equally impressive: 0.723 WHIP, 5.33 K/BB ratio, a .451 OPS, and a BAbip of a microscopic .200. His FIP of 2.07, while less solid than his ERA, is still extremely sweet and indicative of a pitcher that's solid enough to not need the backing of his defense (mid-ranked in the MLB). With the trade winds swirling around San Diego closer Heath Bell (and even Adams himself), the situation in the Padres' camp is fluid. If Bell is traded, I would expect Adams to move into the closer role and be a pick-up of value in most leagues. If Adams were to get traded however, it would be to a team with an immediate need for a solid set-up man. That'd help his value in deep or 5x5/6x6 leagues. Either way, Adams is worth looking into for shoring up your fantasy staff.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Antonio Bastardo (PHI): Yet another story about another closer in another pennant chase not exactly getting things done lately. Bastardo has slipped a bit off a solid season over the last seven days. He's only notched one save in three appearances (2.2 IP), giving up two runs on two hits and two walks. On a good note, he did fan three. Antonio has been having a career year, with an ERA of 1.38, FIP of 2.52, OPS of .422, and BAbip of .159. However, there's the case of another young arm possibly starting to fold under the pressure of a tight race. Bastardo's numbers over the last 14 days (ERA of 4.50, OPS of .568, BAbip of .286) are a little troubling. While there's not really a whole lot to go off of (he's only worked one game in August in his career), a sudden falloff during a pennant race is never a good thing. My recommendation is to hang onto Bastardo until we get an idea of how at least the first half of August goes for him.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Henry Rodriguez (WSH): The Nats, while realistically in the Wild Card hunt, are going to have some issues while Rodriguez is in their 'pen. His last seven days read like a pitching coach's nightmare: two games, 1.1 IP, six runs on four hits (including a blast), six walks, no strikeouts. A 4.25 ERA on the year, combined with a paltry 1.32 K/BB ratio, 1.639 WHIP, and .313 BAbip are the epitome of "stay away". There are a few pluses to his game: Only one homer allowed in 36 innings, a GO/AO ratio of 1.48 is solid, he has five holds on the season, and he's only allowed 27% of his inherited runners to score (3-for-11). While those kinds of things may hold promise for future considerations (say, the next year or two), he is of no help now, and should be avoided at any and all opportunities.

That's all that's fit to print for the moment. As always, comments below, or hit me up on Twitter: @JCPronkFan48

Warming Up In The 'Pen: NL Edition: July 21st, 2011

Greetings once more, folks!

While we haven't had that blockbuster of a deal involving the back-end of anyone's 'pen like last week (trade deadline's only 10 days away!), there is a bit of news that's worthwhile to report about one of my picks from the last NL article. Let's get to that previous week review:

• Drew Storen was straight dominant in two appearances this last week, both saves. He only allowed one hit in two innings of work, fanning four in the process and walking none.
• Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset saw a good amount of work this past week (three appearances for Masset, four for Ondrusek). Each added a hold to his line, working 5.1 innings of scoeless ball combined. Each man allowed a hit, a walk, and a strikeout over the last seven days.
• Francisco Cordero seemed to recover nicely from being the co-"Heart Attack Winner" this past week, notching two saves in two perfect innings of work...
• ...But Carlos Marmol went pure nuclear, giving up six earned runs in 1.2 innings of work. He only gave up three hits, but allowed an astounding seven walks in three outings. The Cubs are working Marmol on the side to fix up a "mechanical flaw" centered around his slider, and have installed Sean Marshall as the go-to closer for the team in the interim.
• Zach Braddock continued to be, well, Zach Braddock, giving up four runs on two hits and two walks in his only appearance over the last week. Oh, by the way, did I mention he didn't even record a single out? I think that's enough about Mr. Braddock for now.

 So onto this week's fun!

• Our "Doing Work" star is none other than John Axford from the Milwaukee Brewers. Since the Francisco Rodriguez trade, Axford has doled out three saves in four outings, giving up two runs (one earned) on four hits in four innings. He walked two in those outings, but also punched out four. If K-Rod's arrival on the scene has phased the young right-hander, it hasn't shown. The Brew-Crew have stayed the course using Axford as their closer, even after acquiring K-Rod, and it's not hard to see why: 26/28 Saves, 1.52 GO/AO ratio, 3.00 K/BB ratio, and a 73% Contact Percentage. He's a strike-thrower, pitches to contact, and lets his defense help him. Even though the defense behind him is the third worst in the NL, his stats say that he's perfectly capable of doing things himself (reference the K/BB ratio, and his FIP of 2.28 versus his ERA of 2.78). But the stats also tell us that he could be walking a fine line. His WHIP (1.368), H/9 (8.5), and BAbip (.353) are all pretty hefty numbers. While a sub-par defense (and gracious scorers) could be driving numbers like those upward, it could be indicative of a younger arm starting to tire and lose the control that contact pitchers need to be effective. Axford is on-pace to work more innings (74.1) than he's ever pitched in the Majors, and the second most in his career as a whole (his most being his '08 stint with Milwaukee's A+ club at 95 IP).The K-Rod deal could easily have been one to bolster the 'pen and save Axford's arm. K-Rod's a proven commodity and could help down the stretch while the club eases Axford into more innings, instead of sacrificing a solid "future considerations" arm. Fantasy owners should read that as: the Brewers will likely ease off using the young phenom as the season soldiers on, bringing K-Rod in for more save opps come August and September, especially if the Brew-Crew finds themselves in an NL Central dogfight near the end. And for those of you wondering, K-Rod's line since coming to the Brew-Crew: 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 0/1 Saves, 1 Hold, 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
• This week's "Unsung Hero" has been mentioned in my previous article: Jason Isringhausen of the New York Mets. Post K-Rod, Izzy has been dubbed the closer in this MacGyver'ed back-end of the Mets' 'pen, and he's come out strong. He worked three games this week, notching save #294 in his career (and win #47). Through four shutout innings (including two innings of work last night), he allowed two hits and two walks, but sat down six. The 38 year-old northpaw gets a lot of help from his defense nowadays (0.58 GO/AO, .221 BAbip, 2.76 ERA vs 4.28 FIP), but does still have something left in the cannon (1.80 K/BB with 27 Ks in 32.2 IP). The big thing with Izzy will be stamina. Terry Collins has stated that Izzy will get a day or two off after pitching two innings last night, and that likely means any save opportunities will fall to Bobby Parnell (who, incidentally, got the hold in Izzy's save). There are rumblings that Izzy could be dealt by the Trade Deadline, which would be a blow to Mets fans and baseball at large (Izzy has a chance to hit 300 saves with the same club he broke in with), but could be an interesting twist for fantasy leagues with Holds as a stat as Izzy could fit into the eighth inning plans of several staffs. I would say grab Izzy up if he's available in free agency or the waiver wire in your 5x5 or 6x6 league, but I also wouldn't mortgage the farm to get him. His age may put him as only a temporary solution in whatever bullpen he's in.
• The "Heart Attack Award" for today goes to Fernando Salas of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have scuffled of late, losing three straight, and seven of their last ten. Salas hasn't exactly helped right the ship in his last three outings, saving one, blowing one, and losing two (including the blown save). He gave up three runs in three innings, allowed five hits (including two longballs), and only struck out two. While Fernando's numbers this season are no slouch (2.68 ERA, 17/20 Saves, 0.915 WHIP, 4.18 K/BB, .569 OPS, .227 BAbip), the fact that he's melted down in the last week when the Cards have been desperate to stay atop their division is distressing. Though there's not many numbers to back this up (he only made his ML debut in late May of '10), Salas could be in for a rough second half. Cards fans will be hoping for a turn-around from Salas and a quick return to his "old" form. Otherwise, Jason Motte is waiting in the wings for a shot to get the Cards back into the thick of the hunt. Fantasy owners may want to be aware of things like these: 4.78 ERA, 1 Save, 1.595 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, .859 OPS, .324 BAbip. Those are Salas' second-half numbers. Again, Salas is only 26, and is pitching in his first FULL season with the Cards, so take the numbers as you will. My opinion is one of cautious optimism in Salas' youth and current production, but keep other options on your roster in case the bottom does (once again) fall out.
• My "ZOMBIE!" is the aforementioned Carlos Marmol of the Cubs. His season has seemed to go from bad to worse. Now the Cubs are trying to get his mechanics back in shape with his slider. The Cubs are hoping to platoon Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood in the closer's role while Marmol gets right, but neither one of those men has been exactly lighting things up (3.18 and 3.45 ERAs respectively, with 2/7 Saves between them). Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) the Cubs are 14 games out, and can take the time to get Marmol back to form. To fantasy owners who still have Marmol, I think it's safe to let go at this point and attempt to get someone that'll be more useful to the depth of your rotation.

Next week is looking to be a doozy. Not much in the way of big moves just yet, but the way the trade winds are swirling, it could be the calm before the storm.

As always, comments are welcome below or reach out to me on Twitter @JCPronkFan48.

Warming In The 'Pen: The NL Edition: July 14th, 2011

Greetings once again, folks!

It figures that when I'm getting ready to work on the NL side of the house for this article series, something big comes up. I suppose that's to be expected around this time of the season, and we should expect more news in the next several days to come. Needless to say, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the move made this morning involving the New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers before getting into the normal heart of the article today.

The Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers today for 2 gentlemen by the name of "Player To Be Named Later", a common commodity. I'll be honest and say I'm not sure what either team's looking to get out of this deal.

The Mets are giving up a star-power closer for prospects when they're not completely removed from the hunt. A good stretch run could find them in the thick of the Wildcard race. However, if the Mets suddenly find themselves running as a closer-by-committee, it could be a rough road to haul. A couple of candidates to fill the role would be the grizzled-but-tough right-handed veteran presence of Jason Isringhausen (whom at the tender age of 38 is seven saves shy of the vaunted 300 mark), and the young and spry Bobby Parnell (who has really grown into the short-relief role with the Mets the last two years). This could also clear the road for another call-up of Dale Thayer, who's had a decent season closing in Triple-A Buffalo. Time will tell how the Mets front office handles this move, though reports are that this is by no means a "waving the white flag" maneuver.

Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on the Izzy/Parnell situation. I would be leaning more towards Izzy in the short-term, due to his star power, experience for a possible playoff push, and the simple fact of getting save #300 on the team he broke into the show with. That's something baseball fans in general would want to see in this day and age.

The Brewers, in the meantime, are picking up another closer when they have John Axford, who is having a sensational year. Rodriguez hasn't pitched in a setup role since the team he was with was called the Anaheim Angels, but the Milwaukee bullpen could benefit from another strong arm. LaTroy Hawkins has been one of the only solid late-inning options for the Brew-Crew as of late, but is still coming off of rotator cuff surgery late last season. The Brewers will be careful with Hawkins for the rest of the season, and especially now that another proven arm has joined the 'pen.

The big news for fantasy owners here is that there may be split closes for Axford and K-Rod from here on out. As close as the NL Central race is, though, don't be surprised to see Milwaukee "dance with who brought them there" and keep Axford as the primary Saves choice. That would leave K-Rod and LaTroy to platoon the set-up role, and thusly split and share any Hold chances in deep leagues.

Now, back to regularly-scheduled programming.

• This week's NL pick for "Doing Work" is Washington's Drew Storen. Drew's last 5 games have been uneventful: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 K, 4 Sv. Those numbers, along with a solid season overall (5-2, 2.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 20/23 Sv, 3 Hld), I'm willing to say that this kid (23 years old) is just starting on an upswing. The kid's a ground-ball pitcher (1.50 GO/AO) with a more-than-servicable OPS (.560) and BABIP (.218). Some are questioning his FIP of over 3.50, but I feel that with his youth, that'll improve by bounds. He is a solid pick-up in more or less any style league, and should be good for several statistical categories for the rest of the season.
• The "Unsung Heroes" in the Senior Circuit this week (and yes, that's plural) are the Reds' Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset. The pair have combined for 5 holds over 8.2 IP, allowing 1 ER, 6 H and 3 BB, striking out 6 along the way. This tandem has assisted the Reds to hold close (pun only semi-intended) in the NL Central race, being only 4 games out with a whole half to go. Ondrusek and Masset have amassed 21 holds on the season, keeping low OPS (.595 and .630) and BABIP (.226 and .283). They both give up more ground balls than fly balls, but are slightly prone to the home run ball (7 HR in 89 IP). Despite this, I feel that these two are a good pick-up. If you have to choose between the two though, I would have to choose Ondrusek on his youth and potential in the long-run.
• The "Heart Attack Award" in this piece also go to a pair: Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero and the Cubs' Carlos Marmol. As good as Ondrusek and Masset have been for the Reds, Cordero has been just as... flaky. While Cordero has posted a season line worthy of some of his better campaigns in his careers (3-3, 2.95 ERA, 17/22 Sv), his last 5 games have been nothing short of horrific. In 4.1 innings, he's given up 7 runs on 9 hits (including a homer), 4 walks, and only getting 1 K. He saved one game, but blew 3. Marmol has similar season numbers (2-2, 2.57 ERA, 19/25 Sv), and while his last 5 games weren't as bad as Cordero's, his line was no walk in the park: 3.2 IP, 2 ER on 2 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. Both of them are going through rough patches right now, but Cordero's seems a little more serious. His issues with being hit seem to be more sustained as of late, and at 13 seasons in the Big Leagues, his arm may be showing signs of trailing off. With a decent duo in the bullpen (as mentioned above), and Aroldis Chapman lurking in the shadows, any further signs of this slump continuing could pull Cordero out of the closer role on a more permanent basis.
• Lastly, the "ZOMBIE!" of the National League this week is Milwaukee hurler Zach Braddock. Zack is likely to be the loser in the K-Rod deal, and for good reason. His last 5 games: 4 IP, 6 ER on 5 H (including a longball), 2 BB, 2 K. The results were a hold and a blown save. His season is along the same lines (0-1, 5.19 ERA, 0/1 Sv), and some of the advanced stats don't sit in his favor: a GO/AO of 0.48, along with a Slg of .369 and OPS of .690 tell me that he's getting hit, and getting hit hard. 43% of the hits he's given up have been of the extra bases variety, and batters are finding a way to make contact off him (63% of the strikes he threw were either fouled off or put in-play). I don't feel Mister Braddock is long for the Brewers rotation, especially now with K-Rod in the mix. Maybe a stint in the Minors will give him something; be it a better mix of his pitches, an added weapon to the arsenal. Even a chance to get that dominant vibe off Triple-A hitting, and bring it back up to the Brewers in September could be the key to making this pitcher a force in the future. For now, however, I can't see him being even remotely usable in anything but a league needing ridiculous depth on the bench.

So that's my take on the NL this week. I know I promised more concise, but no one can anticipate the tides of change in the world of baseball. Things may calm down after the Trading Deadline passes.

At least until September call-ups.

See y'all next Tuesday!

Comments, complaints, or any other words? Hit me up with a comment in the box below, or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

The Knurve's National League All-Star Ballot

Here are my picks for the National League All-Stars. Be sure to check out my American League All-Star picks, too.

Catcher
It will be: Brian McCann
When I reflect on McCann, I love thinking about how he was the afterthought to Jeff Francoeur when they were called up in 2005. To think Franceour would flame out and McCann would turn into, in my opinion, the best catcher in baseball was not expected. That opinion is an article for another time, but with an average over .300 and 14 dingers, he's the anchor for the Braves underperforming offense. This spot is his again, and nobody's going to take it from him.

It could be: Miguel Montero
Filling this spot is like what I imagine parents feel when they're going to have twins: you're really excited about having one, but you realize you have to pay for two of these. Terrible jokes aside, Montero has been pretty solid on a pretty solid Diamondbacks offense this season. Catching has always been a weaker position, but there's a large contingent of average catchers after McCann, and I think Montero is the best of the average. Jon Lucroy, Ramon Hernandez, and Yadier Molina deserve mentions. The other notable in this group gets his own sentence: Chris Ianetta. If this guy could hit even .250 then he'd be almost as valuable as McCann, but Mr. Mendoza's line is hard to stomach.

First Base
It will be: Joey Votto
...and this disappoints me. I think I can make a pretty good case that Votto is not an All-Star, but I am pretty confident he'll get the votes to be a starter. Everybody wants to tout the season he's had, but at the end of the day he's got very little to show for it. His value is in his batting eye and he's fantastic at drawing walks and scoring runs, but he's only on pace for a 20/100 season, and the guy that SHOULD be starting at first base is almost at 20/100 in the first half.

It should be: Prince Fielder
This is a large man making a large case for a large contract. Goodness, this man deserves to start. Who would have thought Fielder could make a better case for a bigger contract than Albert Pujols, but I am starting to believe it was going to happen even before Pujols went down. Fielder is having a spectacular year, on pace for a 40/140 year, which is absurd. I am glad the Brew Crew is having a great year both because Fielder is keepin' it so real and because I think the Brewers will take the NL Pennant.

Second Base
It will be: Rickie Weeks
You really have to give this guy credit. When he's healthy, he's nasty, and he's been a great leadoff hitter at the top of this pungent lineup. His speed numbers are a little down, but he's been a solid contributor overall. And when you have Fielder and that Ryan Braun guy swinging like they're hitting with a tennis racket, it really helps bring Weeks home.

It should be: Danny Espinosa
Yeah, I said should. It's bold, but it's deserved. He's hit more homers, driven in more runs and stolen more bases than Weeks. I'm convinced if Espinosa had Braun and Fielder (hmmm) behind him, he could score more runs. This guy seems to have it all, and if the Nats pony up and spend some bills this winter, he could become a fantasy stud. The batting average might not get much better, but I can see him evolving into a better version of Weeks or Ian Kinsler.

Shortstop
It will be: Jose Reyes
Is there even a question? This guy has done absolutely everything he can to help the Mets. Get this guy on a winning team, please. It's been great to see what he can do when he's healthy, and it's been truly astounding. The Mets basically build Citi Field for Reyes' swing and he seems to have figured it out. He has 15 triples for goodness sakes. His career high in the category is 19. Watching Reyes play baseball is a lot of fun. Whichever team gets him will be making a worthy investment.

It could be: Troy Tulowitzki
Begrudgingly, I need to give Tulo some credit. After a smokin' hot April, he's had a pretty average May and June. But what does Tulo do best? He does work in the second half. If you'd like proof of this, I'd like to direct you towards his 15 HR/40 RBI performance in the second half of last year....IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. On one hand, he's been good, but not great. I think it's well understood he deserves the respect to start because he will turn it in the second half.

Third Base
It will be: Placido Polanco
I look at Polanco like I look at a good dog: he's nice, he does the same thing everyday, he doesn't go wild and he never pees on the carpet. In all seriousness, the Philly Phaithful will propel Polanco to the start in an otherwise weak position. He's reliable, he hits for average, he can score runs and he's great defensively. I'm pretty tired of talking about him, because the only reason he'll be an All-Star is because everybody else at the position is bad or hurt. Speaking of which, I really wonder what it's like to be THAT guy at an All-Star game. Will all the other All-Stars look at Polanco and think, "The only reason he's here is because David Wright is hurt."

It should be: Ryan Roberts
I think I've pretty well hammered home the point that this position is weak, but Roberts has actually been pretty impressive. He's been one of several pleasant surprises for the Diamondbacks. His 10 dingers and 12 steals are both pretty solid. As strange as this may be to say, I think if Wright was healthy Roberts would get more recognition because the media loooooooves to compare players, it gives better drama.

Outfield
It will be: Matt Kemp, Braun and Justin Upton
Just like Granderson and Ellsbury don't need much discussion, Kemp and Braun don't either. I can't tell you how much I want Kemp to go 40/40. I think the Dodgers organization really needs it. And Braun is just mashing. The 'Hebrew Hammer' has been workin' it hard this season. Upton is the only contentious pick here, but when reflecting upon where the game is this season, I think it's pretty clear he will get the nod. Upton has been an RBI machine of late and has great speed and power. To think how young he is makes me extremely excited to see what he is capable of doing.

It could be: Kemp, Braun and about 10 other people
In all seriousness, I think there about 10 names who would not surprise me at all to make it with Kemp and Braun. Make no mistake. These two are a cut above the rest, but not by too much. Would any of you cry foul if (in no particular order) Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jayson Werth, Carlos Beltran, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman made it? It's pretty clear-cut that there are going to be some bigtime snubs at this All-Star game, and the majority of them will be NL outfielders.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Roy Halladay
He's the best pitcher in baseball. Hearing other hitters talk about how good Halladay really is makes you appreciate him that much more. When they say the guy can throw 5 pitches for strikes almost every which way, it's hard to hate on him. I think even Mets fans respect Halladay, and that's saying something. He's doing the same thing every year. He's a Cy Young calibur pitcher. Makes you wonder what an entire career in the NL would have been like for him.

It could be: either of his two teammates
It's amazing to look at the amount of quality starting pitching in the NL, but Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are just a cut above everybody else. Lee had an obnoxious June and Hamels has been absolutely amazing. Pardon this tangent, but Hamels amazes the hell out of me. He has two pitches that he can throw for strikes, his fastball and his changeup, and he has some trouble locating his curveball. But Hamels is a good reminder that if you locate those two pitches, then you don't need that secondary pitch with alternative movement. This is another spot where 10 other guys could make a case, but these two are more dominant and just better.

Tweet me @TheKnurve with any comments, questions or general feedback on my articles.
-David Kaplan

The Knurve To Say: June 27th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...Jhoulys Chacin will be a top 3 starting pitcher by the end of 2012.
     I know this is relatively bold, but I’m a huge believer in this guy. He’s seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL, but I still get the feeling he’s underappreciated and it’s got me wondering.
     His K/9 is slightly down from last year but so is his BB/9. I have chronicled on my blog how much of a premium elite starting pitching he has become. The increasing depth of starting pitching is going to force us to look for that extra something at a good value. I think even next year, Chacin will be available for a good price because of his relative obscurity.
     But why do I believe he’s going to turn into an elite starting pitcher? For starters, the dude’s only 23 and he’s already doing solid work. His minor league numbers indicate he has the ability for fabulous control. That being said, I think this is his adjustment year. The slight dip in K/9 doesn’t worry me at all because it has been accompanied by a lower BB/9 and an above average HR/FB rate. The higher Home Run rate is to be expected in Coors, but there’s typically a correlation between walk rates and HR/FB rates. Chacin’s track record implies those rates will regress to a mean, and I expect his K rates to spike.
     Chacin is well aware that he is most successful when he keeps the ball down. His high ground ball rates and career BABIP of .255 implies that he has the ability to show phenomenal control. If you are scared of Chacin’s high strand rate, don’t be. His ability to keep the ball down means fewer RBI’s and Home Runs alongside more double-plays.
     My recommendation: If you’re in a keeper league, try to go get him. If you’re at the bottom of your league, offer up an older starter or sell high on somebody. If you can get Chacin for Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Alexi Ogando, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez are just a few of the guys having good years that I’d trade for Chacin in a heartbeat.

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I was a loser and stayed home to watch the White Sox-Nats game on Friday night. The ejection of temporary manager John McLaren was awesome, but I want to talk about Henry Rodriguez for a second. Chances are you've never heard of Rodriguez, but I’m going to say with utter confidence that he has the nastiest stuff in the Majors. I was absolutely shocked at what this guy was doing. He’s hitting 100 with his fastball and has a slider/sinker that is the most absurd thing I have ever seen in my entire life. There are no great videos showing his whole arsenal. But check out the location and speed of these fastballs when he was on the Athletics: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11390201 And check out the pure filth of this wild pitch earlier this year: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14609955. It’s no wonder he has an absurdly low ERA and high WHIP.
• Speaking of McLaren's ejection, I was pissed after they overruled that call, for one reason, and one reason only. Armando Galarraga. Where was the home plate umpire when Jim Joyce clearly blew the call that cost him a perfect game? There’s no excuse for overruling that call Friday night. Sure, it was a bang-bang play, but to the wimpy rookie umpire, don’t poop your pants whenever someone questions you. Joe Torre needs to talk to his umpires about what can get overruled and what can’t. That was absolutely terrible.
• I’m convinced the Diamondbacks are going to win the NL West going away. This team was one year away after their atrocious season last year, and now that they improved the bullpen and their young offense is a year older. Their starting pitching has been a performing a little over their heads (See: Joshua Collmenter and Ian Kennedy) but they have the highest offensive potential in that division and it’s not even close. Speaking of them, in case you haven’t seen Wily Mo Pena’s shtoinker Friday night… you’re welcome: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16233223
• I used to think the Kardashian’s were the dumbest, most annoying people ever. Then Jim Riggleman decided to stop managing the Nationals.
• The report that came out where Logan Morrison told new manager Jack McKeon that he was going to go home and play with his Twitter and McKeon asked what kind of dog it was, made me laugh for about 20 minutes.
• Given the power of the AL East, I am ready to declare Josh Beckett and James Shields two of the best pitchers in baseball. But if I own them I’m selling high. The fact of the matter is these guys are not, nor have they ever been, THIS good. If you own one of these guys, I’m milking them for all their worth. Mark my words on this one, starting pitching is so deep, shore up a hole in your roster by getting rid of these guys. I think these guys will be good for the rest of the season, but I think both of their value has peaked right now. Three straight complete games!?! Are you kidding me?
• I’m going to say this now, and I will probably elaborate on this in my article next week, but Joe Mauer’s contract may go down as one of the biggest busts in baseball history.

The Mike Stanton Mancrush-Meter was a 6 last week. I’m sad to say it’s down to a 5 this week. He sat the first few games of last week with an eye infection and then came back and had two straight 3 hit games on Wednesday and Thursday before he had a golden sombrero Friday night, striking out all four times he came to the plate. With no mammoth, testosterone-inducing bombs to the crowded Sun Life Stadium outfield bleachers this week, I sure hope he hits one this week.

Joke of the week: Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average in June is 10 points higher than Shaq’s free throw percentage in the entire 2006-2007 season with the Heat. I can’t tell which is funnier; how good Gonzalez is or how bad Shaq was.

Have a great week, fellow Americans.
@TheKnurve

KNURVE'S NOTE: I swear on my future children's ugliness that I didn't read Matthew Berry's column from last week before I touted Chacin and selling high on Beckett and Shields.

Waiver Saviors: Small Sample Size

When looking for players available on your league's waiver wire, what sorting options do you prefer to use? Last seven days? Fourteen or fifteen days (depending on your league)? Thirty days? Or do you like to like at the entire year-to-date statistics to weigh a player's value?

I'm a fan of the "last 15 days" option ESPN offers when looking for available free agents. Fifteen days seems like a nice length of time to judge if a player is worthy of a free agent pickup.

This edition of Waiver Saviors will look for players owned in approximately 50% or less of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues and having a significant statistical impact over the last fifteen days (May 18th - June 1st).

• 2B Danny Espinosa, WAS (37.2% ESPN; 28% Yahoo! owned) has five home runs and 11 RBI with an acceptable .273 (12/44) batting average.
• 2B/OF Allen Craig, STL (9.7% E; 14% Y!) is hitting .419 (18/43) with three home runs, 11 RBI and qualifies as at 2B in Yahoo! leagues. He should see increased playing time with Matt Holliday hitting the DL.
• 1B Freddie Freeman, ATL (24.3% E; 22% Y!) has turned things around of late. He's batting .385 (20/52) with one home run, five RBI and two stolen bases with seven multi-hit games over the last two weeks. He could be a valuable long-term solution as a CI or IF in deeper mixed leagues.
• OF Jon Jay, STL (43.7% E; 13% Y!) will also benefit from the Holliday injury. He's making the most of his opportunities by hitting .373 (22/59) with four stolen bases.
• RP Mark Melancon, HOU (64% E; 43% Y!) is settling in to the closers role after a bumpy start. He has three saves and a win since his last blown save with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over a span of 6.2 innings pitched.
• SP Kevin Correia, PIT (42.6% E; 41% Y!) has three wins (all quality starts) over his last 20 innings pitched with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also leads the majors with eight wins.
• 1B/2B/3B/OF Ty Wigginton (11.1% E; 14% Y!) has a nine game hitting streak and is hitting .333 (14/42) with three home runs (eight extra-base hits), five RBI and 10 runs scored. His position eligibility may vary in leagues but any roster can benefit from a player with that much flexibility.
• OF Angel Pagan, NYM (59.8% E; 39% Y!) has ten hits, five runs and two stolen bases in six games since returning to action from the DL with an oblique injury. Maybe 2010 wasn't a fluke.
• OF Corey Patterson, TOR (38.3% E; 31% Y!) is has 21 hits (.318 BA) for 33 total bases and regular playing time. Ignore his name and chase the stats he's putting up and find a spot on your roster for him.
• OF Laynce Nix, WAS (22.1% E; 11% Y!) has four home runs, seven RBI and five runs scored while playing nearly exclusively against right-handed pitchers. His .289 average (11/38) and 1.025 OPS are worthy of an outfield platoon on your fantasy team, as well.
• OF Josh Willingham, OAK (27.2% E; 25% Y!) is only hitting .250 (11/44) but has four home runs (seven extra-base hits), 12 RBI, five runs, six walks and even a stolen base.
• 1B/OF Juan Rivera, TOR (5.0% E; 6% Y!) is hitting .305 (18/59) with two home runs, eight RBI and seven runs while collecting a hit in 12 of 14 games.

I know there are tons of "waiver" articles out there but I hope when reading through the Waiver Saviors series you're able to actually go to your league and find the majority of these players available and beneficial to your team's overall success. Drop me a line if you pick some of these players up and let me know how I did. Anyone can recommend a player. I want you to know that I follow my own advice. I pick up a good bit of these players if they are available in any of my five leagues. Just putting my money where my mouth is.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from May 25th, 2011

Here are some fantasy baseball-relevant tidbits and notes I picked up from box scores and recaps from games played on May 25th, 2011:

• OF Carl Crawford, BOS went 4-for-4 with two doubles, a home run, two RBI and three runs scored in the Red Sox 14-2 rout of the Cleveland Indians (and earned himself a "Line of the Day" award). Crawford went 6-for-11 in this series and seems ready to reward fantasy owners that hung onto him through all of his struggles.
• OF Grady Sizemore, CLE ran the bases without any problems and is expected to be activated from the DL before this weekend's series versus the Rays.
• DH David Ortiz, BOS hit his 10th home run of the season and is 13/32 (.406) with three homers and a 1.250 OPS over the last seven days. Keep an eye on late-June when the Red Sox play road interleague games without a DH.
• OF Andruw Jones, NYY hit a pair of two-run home runs in a spot start in left field. He doesn't play regularly enough to have much fantasy value but it's nice to see he still has some gas left in the tank.
• SP Jo-Jo Reyes, TOR suffered the loss against the Yankees and dropped his record to 0-4 on the season and tied a major league record with 28 starts without a victory. With only three quality starts in 10 games started, it's probably safe to avoid Reyes until he proves he can be effective.
• 1B/OF Mike Morse, WAS hit his third home run in three days and should be owned in all leagues except the most shallow. He'll play first base regularly until Adam LaRoche returns.
• SP Zack Greinke, MIL struck out 10 (or more) batters for the 10th time in his career and also hit his second career home run. His 39 K's in just 28 innings translates into a 12.54 K/9 ratio to go along with a ridiculous 39:3 K:BB ratio of 13-to-1. Wow. Hopefully he's given up pick-up basketball.
• SP Erik Bedard, SEA pitched six shutout innings and earned his third win in his last five starts without a loss. He's allowed two runs or less in all five of those starts. With 45 K's in 51.2 innings pitched, Bedard seems to have returned to the land of the fantasy relevant. Owned in only 47% of ESPN and 36% of Yahoo! leagues, now would be a good time to take a shot at streaming him in his next start against Baltimore.
• CL Brandon League, SEA pitched a perfect ninth inning to record his 12th save in 15 chances (and three in a row now) and seems to have regained control over the closer's role after nearly losing it with three straight blown save opportunities.
• C J.R. Towles, HOU broke an 0-for-32 slump with three hits and a walkoff RBI in the 9th inning. You can do much better at the catcher position in fantasy baseball.
• OF Melky Cabrera, KC hit his sixth home run of the season and has 15 RBI and 11 runs scored over his last 19 games. He's 93.9% owned in ESPN leagues but only 60% in Yahoo! leagues. Why the disparity? Odd. Check your Yahoo! waiver wires if you are in need of some outfield depth.
• OF Mike Stanton, FLA was 4-for-6 with four RBI in a wild game against the Giants. Over the last 15 games, Stanton is 17/44 (.386) with six home runs, 14 RBI, eight runs scored, 10 extra-base hits and a 1.309 OPS.
• C Buster Posey, SF has reportedly suffered a broken leg and torn ligaments in a home plate collision. Details are just coming out this morning. Horrible news. On a positive note, 1B/OF Brandon Belt was recalled and should receive regular playing time going forward.
• SP Ian Kennedy, ARI raised his record to 6-1 on the season and went 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in five May starts. Eight of his 11 starts have been quality starts.
• CL J.J. Putz, ARI pitched a perfect ninth inning, registering a franchise-record 14th straight save to start the season.
• CL Jordan Walden, LAA recorded his 10th save in 13 opportunities and has regained control over the closer's role. He now has a 24:11 K:BB ratio in 23.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

I'd love some feedback from readers about this feature. Is it useful? Worth continuing? More in depth analysis needed to make it useful? More commentary to make it fun? Any information is greatly appreciated.

Waiver Saviors: Who's Hot and Available

This edition of Waiver Saviors is not a celebrity gossip edition. There will be no Kardashians mentioned unless one of them is dating Matt Kemp. Today's post will be focusing on those players owned in approximately 50% or less of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues AND having a significant statistical impact over the last 15 days (through May 24th).

Here's the latest batch of waiver wire targets you need to be aware of at this point in the season:

• OF Jon Jay, STL (13/8% ESPN; 5% Yahoo! owned) is hitting .392 (20/51) with nine RBI and three stolen bases while filling in across an outfield dealing with injuries. If your team needs offense, Jay is worth the look while he's hot and making the most of his opportunities.
• OF Laynce Nix, WAS (21.9% E; 8% Y!) is hitting .362 (17/47) with three home runs, nine RBI and a stolen base as the Nationals' regular left fielder. He's projecting to hit 20 HR this season, which isn't much of a stretch for a player averaging 17 HR per 162 games over his career.
• 1B/2B/3B Adam Kennedy, SEA (2.5% E; 4% Y!) is hitting .297 (11/37) with two home runs and two stolen bases and can be a short term fix to a fantasy roster dealing with injuries. As second basemen go, Kennedy is ranked higher than Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill and Gordon Beckham.
• OF Raul Ibanez, PHI (47.6% E; 33% Y!) is hitting .326 (15/46) with two home runs, six RBI and 10 runs scored and has raised his average from a season-low .154 on May 1st to a season-high .252 today.
• 1B/OF Brad Hawpe, SD (5.8% E; 5% Y!) is hitting .318 (14/44) with two home runs, six RBI and 10 runs scored and could be a nice addition to your team in deep leagues utilizing extra roster positions such as CI, IF, UTL and DH or NL-only leagues.
• C Jonathan Lucroy, MIL (29.4% E; 26% Y!) is hitting .390 (16/41) with four home runs, 15 RBI and a 1.188 OPS and deserves to be owned in all formats. He's climbed the charts to become the 5th-ranked catcher on ESPN in just 32 games played.
• OF Seth Smith, COL (46.7% E; 29% Y!) is hitting .372 (16/43) with three home runs, nine RBI and two stolen bases while settling in as the Rockies' everyday right fielder. He may sit against some of the tougher lefties (.327 vs RHP; .214 vs LHP), but I think the concerns over him being a platoon should be put to rest.
• 1B Juan Miranda, ARI (0.5% E; 1% Y!) is hitting .375 (9/24) with one home run and five RBI and the reason the Diamondbacks recently released Russell Branyan. He's currently dealing with a hand/wrist injury but seems to be in Arizona's long term plans at first base.
• 1B/OF Michael Morse, WAS (2.3% E; 10% Y!) is hitting .407 (11/27) with two home runs and five RBI and will get an extended look at first base while Adam LaRoche in on the disabled list. He's now showing signs of being the player who hit nine homers  this past Spring and highly touted as a sleeper.
• 2B/3B Justin Turner, NYM (46% E; 17% Y!) is hitting .326 (15/46) with one home run and 12 RBI while seeing time at second base and third base for the injured David Wright. Check your league settings to see which position(s) he qualifies at because his value increases with dual eligibility.

Being extremely proactive in your daily leagues is the easiest way to stay ahead of lazy owners. We are nearly 1/3 of the way into the season and soon, if not already, it will be time to cut ties with under-performing players and take a chances on others that can help your team make up points in the standings. Head-to-head leaguers should be ready to treat each week separately and play as aggressively as possible to win.

Line of the Day: May 20th, 2011

OF Jayson Werth of the Washington Nationals homered twice and drove in four runs in the Nationals 17-5 rout of the Baltimore Orioles. His home run was one of six hit by the Nationals' offense and set a team record for most home runs in a game. The 17 runs also set a franchise record.

Line: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 4 RBI; 2 HR, HBP

My fantasy perspective: Werth hasn't lived up to the hype of his free agent contract (7yr/$126M) but few thought he would this season. After a disappointing month of April (hitting just .220 with 4 HR and 7 RBI), he's rebounded in May to hit .286 with 4 HR, 11 RBI and 4 SB so far. At his current pace, Werth could finish the season with 29 HR, 22 SB and 88 Runs but only 66 RBI and a .247 batting average. If he can get his average up to or above his career .269 mark and his RBI total close to the 85 he's averaged per 162 games, fantasy owners will have gotten what they paid for with their 5th or 6th round pick.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Waiver Saviors: May 19th, 2011

Waiver Saviors is a regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact in fantasy baseball and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process. This advice applies best to very deep, mixed leagues and shallow league-only leagues. I'm not sure why people still insist on playing in shallow mixed leagues where EVERYONE is available on waivers.

Here's the latest batch of Waiver Saviors who may be worth owning if your roster continually has been decimated by injuries or you're finally ready to move on from an under-performing draft selection:

• OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (32.6% ESPN; 29% Yahoo! owned) is currently tied for sixth in hits (51) in the MLB, is hitting .307 and has scored 22 runs. Those are some positives. On the flip side, he only has two home runs and nine RBI, a 2.9 BB% and an inflated BABIP of .374. The Cubs will continue to run him out there everyday and slot him in the three hole in the lineup and there is value in that if you need a temporary fill-in for an injured player. And it also helps that he's hitting .340 over his last 15 games and both of his homers have come during that span.
• OF Jonny Gomes, CIN (17.2% E; 23% Y!) is only hitting .183 and officially lost his starting left field job, so why would there be any value in acquiring him? One word; interleague. The Reds are going to use him at DH in upcoming interleague games hoping to utilize his bat. This could be the wake up call his season needs. Now if he could just cut down his 31.7 K% and have a few balls drop into play (.195 BABIP).
• OF Seth Smith, COL (25.8% E; 15% Y!) has started 31 of the Rockies 41 games and made it into a total of 35, producing 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23 Runs and 3 SB. At his current pace, he'd produce a full season line of .286/91/16/71/12. In 2010, only 28 players accomplished a 16 HR/12 SB or better season. His splits (.301 BA vs RHP; .167 BA vs LHP) prove he'll be stuck in a platoon and should be utilized as such on your fantasy team, as well.
• 1B Todd Helton, COL (68.3% E; 37% Y!) looks healthy and could add value to your team in several categories from a CI, IF or UTL/DH slot in deep, mixed leagues or shallow NL-only ones (8th-ranked NL first baseman). Is a 20+ HR/75+ RBI/.315+ BA season that much of a stretch for him? He's outperforming guys like Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn and Billy Bulter at this point and deserves a look.
• OF Corey Patterson, TOR (14.1% E; 7% Y!) is currently the Blue Jays starting left fielder and batting at the top of an offensively-potent lineup. In his last 14 straight starts, he's batting .295 (18/61) with six doubles, two triples, nine RBI, 11 runs scored and three stolen bases. Get past the name and look at the statistics and you'll see a player with plenty of fantasy value while getting the opportunity to play.
• 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (43.4% E; 39% Y!) has returned to the lineup from a shoulder injury and tearing it up. In six games since his return, he's hitting .435 (10/23) with a 1.132 OPS and should be a mainstay in the middle of the Reds' potent offense with the occasional day off for rest.
• 3B Alberto Callaspo, LAA (51.7% E; 32% Y!) is another third baseman with value on waivers. Over his last 15 days, he's hitting .339 (19/56) with 11 RBI. He doesn't offer much power or speed but would fill in nicely if you are reeling from injuries at what's proving to be an even shallower third base position than it was on draft day.
• OF Roger Bernadina, WAS (2.2% E; 2% Y!) is the Nationals' starting center fielder and leadoff hitter and deserves to be owned in more leagues. He's now hitting .293 on the year with four stolen bases in his last 11 games. His 12.8 BB% has led to a nice .383 OBP. If the Nationals' offense could find some consistency, Bernadina could be a cheap source for runs scored, too.
• C Yadier Molina, STL (60.3% E; 55% Y!) has a 5x5 line of .323/16/3/18/1 and currently stands as the third-ranked catcher on ESPN's Player Rater after hitting .483 (14/29) with a 1.190 OPS over his last seven games. There's no reason to hold onto a multi-category killing catcher this deep into the season. You should be willing to play the hot hand if you missed out on the upper-tier options.
• OF John Jay, STL (1.1% E; 2% Y!) could see some additional playing time if Tony LaRussa continues get Albert Pujols starts at third base, going forward. His .322/8/3/11/1 line has been very under-utilized up until this point, thanks to the blazing start to the season Lance Berkman has had.
• OF Ryan Ludwick, SD (20.3% E; 17% Y!) has been on a tear over his last seven games, hitting .444 (12/27) with four home runs, 13 RBI and a .889 SLG. He may only be worth rostering on road trips, though (.177/6/4/11/0 at home; .280/13/4/17/1 away).
• RP Fernando Salas, STL (55.3% E; 39% Y!) is the latest Cardinals' reliever to get a chance at some saves and has gone 4-for-4 in his opportunities. Mix in a 2-0 record, 1.02 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.15 K/9, 3.20 K/BB, .153 BAA and three Holds and you got yourself a very valuable reliever in nearly all formats.

Is it time to hit the panic button yet on some under-performing players and if so, which ones have you simply cut your losses with and moved on from already? I'd love to hear from you in the comments section.

Be sure to check back every day to see who won COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award.

A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:

• Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
• Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
• John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
• Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.

There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:

• Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him

Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:

• Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
• Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
• Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
• John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
• Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.

Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.