Line of the Day: Ricky Romero: August 2nd, 2011

Ricky Romero allowed one hit, a solo home run to Desmond Jennings in the sixth inning, over eight innings while striking out seven and walking four to lead the Toronto Blue Jays to a 3-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. It was Romero's 16th Quality Start in 22 attempts. (video recap)

Line: 8 IP | 1 H | 1 ER | 4 BB | 7 K; W | QS

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Romero continues to mature as a pitcher and his numbers are proving it. His ERA is down (2.98). His WHIP is down (1.20). His H/9 is down (7.3). His K/9 is up (7.9). And his K/BB is up (2.25). These are all positive signs of good things to come for the 26 year old left-hander.

Romero is currently the 20th-ranked fantasy baseball starting pitcher, ahead of guys like Michael Pineda (21st), David Price (22nd), Jon Lester (23rd) and Tim Hudson (24th). Quite the output for a player with an ADP of 194.3 in ESPN leagues.

Question: What's it going to take (short-term and/or long-term) for Blue Jays to supplant the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays as roadblocks to a divisional title or wild card berth?

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Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition

The Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while several big moves were conspired (I'll probably write my thoughts on Ubaldo Jimenez in a future article), the back end of most 'pens stayed intact. The Rangers added major depth with Mike Adams and Koji Uehara as they try and repeat once more as the AL Champions. Brad Ziegler, former Oakland A, has been shuttled off to Arizona. Other than that, stability reigned in the AL. Certainly there's bound to be Waiver Wire activity in the coming weeks, and I'm sure we'll have more news as it comes.

But for now, let's look at last week's performers:

• Jonathan Papelbon saw action in one game this past week, where he slammed the door on the Chicago White Sox in a perfect ninth inning. He struck out the side, and notched his 24th save of the season.
• Grant Balfour came into three games, pitched three innings, and only allowed two hits. He also got two knockouts, but no holds or saves as the games (all wins) were already well-in-hand.
• Andrew Bailey showed up in two games (like Balfour's games, both well-in-hand so no saves), and gave up an unearned run on two hits in two innings pitched. He fanned three in the midsts of his work.
• Jordan Walden managed to get a save in two games, allowing two hits and getting two punch-outs. The Indians made his save very interesting (as Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard can attest to), but he managed to pull it out.

And this week's winners and losers:

• "Doing Work" - Mariano Rivera (NYY): In an occurrence that's of no surprise to anyone (100% ownership in ESPN leagues), Mo has been putting together a season to compare with the best ones of his career. A 1.74 ERA (4th lowest in his career), a 7.40 K/BB ratio (2nd best), a 0.6% HR (2nd best), and he's averaging 14 pitches per game in relief, the best in his career. I really don't have to say much about Mo. He's 41, still dealing over 90 MPH on his heat, and his numbers over the last 4 seasons have been much better than his career averages. He does seem to be getting hit more easily (.294 BAbip this season vs. .264 career), but with a FIP this year of 1.88 (right in line with his season ERA, 0.87 better than his career average, and the best in his career), he is still an insanely effective pitcher. He has 587 saves on his career, and knowing the Yankees and their fight in the AL East, he will hit 600 before the season's end. I'm not a Yankee fan, but I do know a superstar player when I see one. Mo is one for the ages.
• "Unsung Hero" - David Robertson (NYY): Behind every great closer, there's usually a great set-up man. In the real-life Gotham City, Mo's Batman is accompanied by 'Robin' Robertson. David has only been in the Bigs for four years, so saying a season is his best so far isn't difficult. However, the amount of improvement he's shown has been amazing. His ERA this year is 1.90 below his average, his FIP is 1.35 lower, and his WHIP (while not impressive) is 0.11 lower. His LOB % (85.5), GB % (46.0), and K/9 ratio (14.46) are all much higher than his career marks. He's picked up 2 MPH on his fastball, almost 3 MPH on his curve, and a touch over 3 MPH on his changeup. He has a wide range of speeds, and has enough control to get batters to slap ground balls down. Plus, there's the fact of him not giving up a single home run all season. He's grabbed 21 holds for the year so far, so he's definitely worth a pick-up in holds and deep leagues. He could be next in line to take over closing duties after Mo retires. If he continues on his upward trend, the drop-off after Rivera will be much, much less than I think anyone anticipates.
• "Heart Attack Award" - Neftali Feliz (TEX): There may have been a reason behind the Rangers' acquisition of Adams and Uehara, and it might be to back Feliz up in a possible "closer-by-committee" situation if he continues to struggle. I know I've written about Feliz before. At the time, I wrote that he'd possibly be coming around. Well, so far, not so good: a loss (and a blown save in the process) and a save in his last two games. He gave up two runs on three hits in 1.1 innings pitched, with a walk and a strikeout. Yes, as I stated before, he's coming off a horrible month of June. His month of July wasn't great: 0-1 record, 5 Sv, 4.00 ERA, 9 IP in 10 G, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks. While it was an improvement on June, there's still a lot of work to get back to the sub-2.00 ERAs of April and May. His last 28 days numbers (save the ERA) are trending more towards his '11 season numbers, so there is still a chance for Feliz to pull it together and end his season strong. There may be less pressure on Feliz in this pennant race now that Adams and Uehara are both Rangers, but I don't see a change in the role of closer unless Feliz completely falls on his face.
• "ZOMBIE!" - Jon Rauch (TOR): The Blue Jays do have an outside chance at the Playoffs: only 10.5 games out of the Wild Card lead, and an above-.500 record. If they were in the AL Central, they'd be tied with the Indians at two games out of the lead. However, Jon Rauch isn't exactly helping them get there. Over his last three games (2.2 IP), he's given up two runs on three hits, only grabbing two strikeouts. With a WHIP of 1.500, an OPS of .876 and a BAbip of .357 over the last four weeks, it's really doubtful that this is just a 'phase'. With a low GB% (36.6), a high HR/9 ratio (1.62), and a FIP of almost 5 (4.82), there's something more to all of this. Rauch has lost speed on all his pitches (1.5 MPH on his fastball alone) along with an increased reliance on his changeup (10.7% this year, up from 6.2% a year ago). The problem comes into effect when you consider his average fastball is at 89.4 MPH, his average slider is 84.6 MPH, and his average changeup is 83.7 MPH. A 5.7 MPH difference between a pitcher's hard stuff and his "finesse" pitches is definitely not a good thing, and tends to get him hit hard. The unfortunate thing is that the next-in-line for the closer role, Frank Francisco, is not much better. The Jays may want to consider a Waiver Wire move for 'pen help, or any hope of Playoffs for them is moot.

 The NL will be on report on Thursday as usual. As always, comment below or hit me up on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Happy Birthday To Me! Trade Deadline Edition

Every year, Major League Baseball delivers me the best birthday presents ever...blockbuster trades. You see, I have the extreme pleasure of being a baseball/fantasy baseball/Yankees fan whose birthday falls on July 30th...the eve of the Trade Deadline. And it looks like my presents are starting to roll in early this year.

The Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaukee trade on July 13th came a couple of weeks early, you know, like the card from your aunt or grandmother that includes a $5 bill, even though you're turning 40 and five dollars can barely buy you a foofoo, non-fat, mocha-choca latte you've come to love over the past few years of your life. Ok, I think I've said too much about that.

This trade did give fantasy baseball GMs plenty to talk about, too. What would K-Rod's role be with the Brewers and how would that effect John Axford's role as their current closer. Who would close for the Mets? Would it be the young fire-baller, Bobby Parnell or the gritty veteran, Jason Isringhausen? I'd say this kind of trade was just the sort of thing to get me excited for the weeks ahead.

Fast forward to July 27th and you've got the kind of present I'm talking about for a 40th birthday. It's like the wife just handed me the "emergency" credit card and told me to go to
Best Buy to by myself something pretty. And by pretty, I assume she meant something with the letters HDTV in it.

Chicago White Sox trade Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart. Then the St. Louis Cardinals trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters to the Toronto Blue Jays for the aforementioned Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski and Corey Patterson. I haven't seen that kind of hot, three-way action since the last time I unexpectedly got a free preview weekend of Cinemax! My computer Twitter'ed all over itself. The fantasy baseball repercussions of trades of this magnitude are still being felt across the airwaves of talk radio and in 140-characters-or-less blurbs.

And the day wasn't even done delivering me presents, yet. News of the Carlos Beltran-to-SF Giants-for-prospect(s) trade had everyone on Twitter speculating for hours until it was announced the uber-prospect was Zack Wheeler. Quick! Get me some Gatorade, caffeine and oysters. This could be a long and exciting day.

Late news broke of a Wil Nieves-to Atlanta trade as a result of the Braves having to put All-Star catcher Brian McCann on the DL. Come on. Really? This kind of trade is the equivalent of receiving a birthday card from your boss. You both know he didn't want to but his secretary made him do it anyway. Thanks for nothing, boss man. At least include a gift card next year.

Thursday, July 28th, got us back into the spirit of gift giving for my birthday with a Kosuke Fukudome-to-Cleveland trade. There could be some positive benefits to this deal for Fukudome (.282 BA vs RHP) in deeper, mixed leagues and AL-only ones. I won't be sending a thank you card for this trade, though. I deserve better.

So here we sit, heading into what's expected to be a weekend filled with buyers buying, sellers selling and some teams leaving their fans wondering what the future holds for their home teams. As a life-long New York Yankees fan, I know there's a present or two headed my way. The only question is, "What's in the box?"

Waiver Saviors: Digging Deep Edition

As the season grinds along, managing your rosters in competitive leagues becomes increasingly more difficult as everyone is targeting ways to make a run at the league title or finish in the money spots.

Let's look at a group of players with extremely low ownership rates who can help you in very deep mixed leagues or league-only ones. Shallow mixed leagues aren't worth playing in nor worth talking about. Stick to fantasy football. I hear there could be a season or something. Whatever.

• OF Hideki Matsui, OAK (10.8% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) is hitting .469 (15/32) since the All-Star break with two home runs and 11 RBI. He's the kind of player to own while he's on a hot streak and dump the moment he goes cold.
• OF Dexter Fowler, COL (21.3% ESPN; 18% Yahoo!) is making the most of his recent call-up from AAA. In 10 games, he's hitting .324 with a .439 OBP, three doubles, three triples, three stolen bases and 10 runs scored. With Carlos Gonzalez on the DL, Fowler should get every opportunity to start in center field and prove he's the player the Rockies and fantasy GM's wish he'd become.
• OF Marlon Byrd, CHC (14.0% ESPN; 17% Yahoo!) is back as the Cubs everyday center fielder and proving he can still hit after suffering multiple facial fractures. In 19 games since his return, he's hitting .329 (23/70) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and 10 runs scored.
• 1B/OF Mike Carp, SEA (0.5% ESPN; 1% Yahoo!) has a five-game hitting streak since being recalled from AAA, going 8-for-22 (.364) with two home runs. Expect the Mariners to continue running out their youngsters to see what they're capable of and whether or not they fit in to the team's long-term plans.
• 2B Mark Ellis, COL (6.7% ESPN; 8% Yahoo!) has produced a .325/16/2/11/2 line in 20 games since being traded to the Rockies and should be considered a viable option at second base or middle infielder position.
• RP Edward Mujica, FLA (3.3% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) has been named closer-in-waiting should the Marlins deal current closer Leo Nunez. If you are desperate for saves, now might be the time to pick up Mujica. You can drop him in all non-holds leagues come early next week if Nunez is still with the team.
• RP Glen Perkins, MIN (2.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is now the primary setup man for the Twins after Matt Capps recent implosion and Joe Nathan's return to closer. He is a must-own in holds leagues with his 10.01 K/9 ratio.
• 2B/3B/SS/OF Michael Martinez, PHI (18.1% ESPN; 10% Yahoo!) has filled in quite nicely as the Phillies have dealt with injuries to Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco. In July, he's hitting .296 with two home runs, 15 RBI and three stolen bases. Polanco is due back from the DL this weekend, so keep an eye on his playing time.
• 3B/SS/OF Willie Bloomquist, ARI (7.3% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) should be the primary beneficiary as the result of Stephen Drew's horrific injury. Bloomquist is hitting .327 with two stolen bases in July. As long as he is hitting and stealing bases, he should keep Cody Ransom on the bench.
• 2B Brett Lawrie, TOR (1.7% ESPN; 5% Yahoo!) has returned to the lineup in AAA and hitting .367 with a home run and seven RBI in seven July games. Expect him to be called up soon and inserted into third base as the Blue Jays fade from the playoff picture in the AL East. Lawrie should now be owned in all keeper leagues and dynasty formats.

If your league is still very active heading into August, then the action on the waiver wire should remain fiercely competitive. Dig a little deeper into the statistics (last 7 days, last 15 days, etc.) and keep an eye on injuries, playing time, trades and rookie call-ups to find the players who'll benefit the most from these moves and don't be afraid to anticipate the transactions with a bold move of your own.

Warming In The 'Pen: AL Edition: July 19th, 2011

Welcome back, faithful readers...

When we last left our intrepid AL setup men and closers, Joakim Soria and Daniel Bard were the studs of the week, and Jonathan Papelbon and Frank Francisco were the duds. Before we launch into this week's category winners (and in lieu of not having a K-Rod'esque deal to speak about), let's take a a look at how these gents performed over the last week:

• Soria appeared in one game this past week, notching a save in a KC 2-1 victory over the Twins. He faced five batters, giving up two hits. While not the kind of performance worthy of a dominant closer, Soria continues to be a bright spot for a Royals team that generally doesn't have much to cheer about.
• Bard has run his scoreless streak to 21.2 IP with two appearances totaling 2.1 IP post-All-Star Break. He grabbed another hold (his league-leading 22nd), fanning two, walking one, and allowing two hits. Bard continues to be solid deep-league material, and should (in my opinion) be considered high market value.
• Papelbon gave up one run on two hits in two innings pitched over his latest two appearances. He fanned two and claimed his 21st save of the year. Paps continues to give the BoSox fans their MLB daily allowance of cursing and sweating this season. But Paps being Paps, he should be relatively solid (while continuing to "excite") the rest of the campaign.
• Francisco was indeed moved back into the Jays' set-up role coming out of the All-Star Break, and has appeared in two games. In 2.1 IP, he allowed a hit, and struck out one. It's hard to say if he'll turn the corner once more, but racking up scoreless appearances for, say, the rest of this month? That couldn't hurt his chances to come back to the closer's role (currently held by Jon Rauch)

Now, for this week's performers:

• This week's pitcher that's "Doing Work" is Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been stupid good lately. Since taking one on the chin July 3rd against the Marlins (a game in which Mark Lowe blew the save opp and took the loss when a pickoff attempt failed, and Feliz allowed the last of Florida's 4 9th-inning runs), the Rangers have rattled off 11 straight wins. Feliz has been a large part of that. Since the Florida game, Feliz has given up a run on one hit in 5.1 IP, with a walk and four Ks and notching four saves. That includes three perfect outings this past week (2.1 IP) with three Ks and two saves. On the year, his surface numbers are good: 20-for-24 in saves, 2.97 ERA, 26 Ks in 36.1 IP, batters hitting .200 off him. With most things, however, there's a catch. His season numbers in most of the major categories are trending worse than his career averages, which leads me to believe that the advance scouts and batters are starting to figure him out in his second full season: ERA (2.97 in '11 vs 2.57 career), WHIP (1.183 vs 0.915), K/BB ratio (1.44 vs 3.09), GO/AO ratio (0.47 vs 0.58), and FIP (4.45 vs 3.25). While I'm not saying that he's someone to be wary of (he had a very off month of June, which could account for a lot of inflation), owners should be aware also that Feliz's name has been brought up in the trade rumor mills. My advice is to ride Neftali for what he's worth this year, keep a backup option (always wise advice all the same), and if you need to part with him, try to get good value based on overall numbers (plus the fact that he was the '10 Rookie of the Year) and not on a rocky month of June.
• The "Unsung Hero" of the week is the Twins' Joe Nathan. This year's been rough on both Nathan and the Twins in general. Minnesota's found themselves down near the bottom of the pack since the early season, being feasted upon by the injury bug; Nathan being one of the big names to go down for the Twinkies back in May with a right flexor strain. He wound up being out of the lineup for about a month; there was no reason to rush Nathan back, being a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. His first month and a half this season was forgettable, as the rust was obvious. But then the Twins started to pick up their pace and win games, the pack in the AL Central started to close, and Nathan came back in late June. In the 10 games since his return, he's been nothing short of stellar: 2-for-3 in saves, six holds, 9.1 IP, one run on four hits, zero walks, seven Ks. A lot of folks may have sold the farm on Nathan when he went on the DL (or earlier, fearing he wouldn't ever be the same post-surgery), but Matt Capps' implosion as the Twins' closer opens the door for a resurging Nathan. Obviously picking up Nathan at this point won't get you his hold numbers, but it will get you a pitcher that's thrown up a .344 OPS, a .125 BAbip, and a 0.429 WHIP since coming off the DL. And while those numbers are a lot to sustain for the rest of the campaign, the Twins being back in the race will have them leaning on Nathan much more now, giving him plenty of chances to excel and show his stuff from years past.
• My pick for the "Heart Attack Award", as much as it pains me to say it, is my Indians' own Vinnie Pestano (thought I was gonna say Chris "Pure Rage" Perez, didn't you?). The "Bullpen Mafia" has been the key to Cleveland's upstart success this season so far, and "Capo" Pestano has been one of the huge lifts that have allowed the 'pen to be so successful. His recent outings, however, have been offers that fantasy owners could refuse. Over his last 10 games, he's amassed a hefty 7.56 ERA (8.1 IP, 7 ER) on nine hits, three walks and 14 Ks. He was 2-for-3 in saves in the period with three holds. It's entirely possible that this is a bump in the road in a very young career (this being Pestano's first full year in the Majors). It will be interesting to keep watch, however. Considering the ineffectiveness of starters Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot (whom is on the DL at this time), the recent struggles of Carlos Carrasco, and the continued absence of promising rookie hurler Alex White, the Tribe bullpen will likely see a lot of work in the coming games as the rotation is jury-rigged together. Will the young guns hold it together? Or will lack of innings prior to all this work this year come back to bite 'em in the rear? Stay tuned on that. As for Pestano, I would advise getting him for depth in your advanced leagues. He's always good to pull holds out of the air (13 on the year), can back up Chris Perez in case of needing saves (he's come in in 18 save situations), and his deeper numbers (0.963 WHIP, .550 OPS, .260 BAbip, and 2.33 FIP) trend towards his recent issues being just blips on the radar screen.
• This week's "ZOMBIE!" was a little hard to pick out. And while I hate to kick a guy while he's down, I felt that Kevin Gregg of the Baltimore Orioles was probably the worst guy in the last little while. His last 10 games fleshed out like so: 9.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 Sv. His overall stats for the season? Not much better: 36 IP, 16 ER, 33 H, 24 BB, 31 K, 15/19 Sv. Digging deeper, I find some disturbing trends: As of right now, his WHIP (1.583), SO/BB ratio (1.29), and OPS (.769) are lining up to be the worst in his career. His FIP (4.69) is his second worst, with only his '09 Cubs campaign surpassing that (4.93). Maybe this suspension will help get Gregg's head on straight and salvage his '11 campaign. Or, maybe Koji Uehara will step up and make the Orioles' decision once Gregg comes off suspension a little harder. And maybe, just maybe, Gregg will learn how to throw a punch.

Be sure to tune in each Thursday for the NL side of things.

As always, you can hit up in the comment link below or find me on Twitter at @JCPronkFan48.

Waiver Saviors: The Slim Shady Edition

Regardless of the early returns, guys like Eric Hosmer, Anthony Rizzo and Mike Moustakas are names you heard of long before seeing them on Sports Center. Most of baseball's can't-miss rookies burst onto the fantasy baseball scene with tons of hype and are usually owned in any league worth a damn way before they ever set foot in a major league stadium.

But what about the rookies who come onto the scene with little-to-no hype whatsoever yet are quietly proving to be fantasy relevant to the savvy fantasy owner who isn't afraid to dig a little deeper into the depths of the waiver wire.

The following players are letting their numbers speak for themselves. And those numbers are screaming, "Hi! My name is...what? My name is...who?":

• OF Alex Presley, PIT (16.9% ESPN; 9% Yahoo!) is sporting a very impressive 5x5 line of .343/12/1/9/4 in 15 games since replacing the injured Jose Tabata. The Pirates will have a difficult decision to make once Tabata is activated and Garrett Jones could be the odd man out. Don't be surprised if Jones is traded for some pitching. (25 years old)
• SS Zack Cozart, CIN (2.1% ESPN; 4% Yahoo!) is the shortstop of the future for the Reds and is showing fantasy owners what to expect in 2012 with a six-game hitting streak to start his big-league career and an impressive .400/5/1/2/0 5x5 line. Let's see how Dusty Baker manages to mess this rookie up, too. (25 years old)
• OF Eric Thames, TOR (30.3% ESPN; 12% Yahoo!) is keeping his name in the mix for playing time in a crowded Blue Jays outfield with a .308/23/4/14/0 fantasy line over the first 32 games of his young career. Shipping Juan Rivera to the Dodgers and Corey Patterson becoming Corey Patterson again has helped but a hot-hitting Travis Snider may stand in his way for regular at-bats. (24 years old)
• OF Josh Reddick, BOS (2.1% ESPN; 3% Yahoo!) has had two previous, unsuccessful auditions with the Red Sox (27 games in 2009 and 29 games in 2010) resulting in a .182 batting average in 121 at-bats. In 26 games this season, Reddick has put up a .352/16/3/17/1 line and could be pushing free agent J.D. Drew out the door come the July 31st trade deadline. (24 years old)
• 2B Jemile Weeks, OAK  (24.2% ESPN; 18% Yahoo!) is doing all he can to not be simply known as "Rickie Weeks' little brother". He's used the first 35 games of his career this season to produce a .319/17/0/11/10 fantasy line and allowed Oakland to ship Mark Ellis off to Colorado for minor league pitcher Bruce Billings. He will never have the power Rickie possesses but show rack up plenty of steals sitting atop the Athletics lineup. (24 years old)

I would never suggest throwing in the towel on your season but at some point (soon) you'll need to be realistic  about if you are playing to win in 2011 or building a foundation of keepers and/or dynasty players for 2012. Don't go crazy stockpiling your team with tons of prospects over proven veterans because sometimes the label of "can't-miss prospect" causes fantasy owners to overvalue a player's potential and could destroy a future season before it ever gets underway.

Question: Which of these five players are you buying into for the 2012 season and why?

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 17th, 2011

The Knurve To Say: Second Half Guarantees

This week, I have The Knurve to Say...
…the following eight things will happen in the second half!

1. Matt Kemp ends the year going 40/40. I know I have my Mike Stanton Mancrush, but my Kemp one is growing, as well. What’s not to like about a guy who's doing what he’s doing and is putting a team and an organization on his back? Sure, he was an embarrassment in the All-Star Game, but he's going to keep doing in the second half exactly what he did in the first half. If you take a look at his peripherals, his better batting eye and improved luck has contributed to his ascension. He's taking more walks than he did last year and he's striking out a little less. He's choosing better pitches to hit, he's hitting them, and he's running when he can.
2. The Chicago White Sox will win the AL Central, and it's going to be close with the…Detroit Tigers. I just can't do it. I can’t convince myself that the Cleveland Indians will hang in here. I expect improved performances from underperformers like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham alongside stronger pitching from John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson. There's too much talent, albeit streaky, on this White Sox team to think they can't win this division. I'm still a believer that this is their division to lose.
3. There are several guys who I think are at their peak value that I would look to deal while they’re this good. I know this may sound crazy, but many people in your league would consider Adrian Gonzalez the best player in the game right now. But I would use his Home Run Derby performance to your advantage if you own him. I think next year is the year we see the power out of him that we were all expecting. I think Gonzalez hits closer to the low 30's than the 40+ people expected. If you can fill holes with Gonzalez, who doesn’t contribute anything to one category as it is, then go ahead and sell him in a two-for-one. I feel the same way about Lance Berkman, Jair Jurrjens, Brennan Boesch and Michael Morse.
4. On the opposite end, here are guys who will have big second halves: Troy Tulowitzki (because he always does), Ichiro Suzuki, Rios, Dunn, Bud Norris, Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez.
5. If you want more in-depth answers on why I feel the way I do about the players in bullets #3 and #4, leave a comment.
6. Behind Kemp, the most valuable outfielder will be Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm starting to believe that he is capable of these power numbers. He's already eclipsed his career high in the majors or minors for one season, but I think the fact that he’s fully healthy and hitting in front of that offense makes him seeeeeeexy.
7. The Toronto Blue Jays win the AL Wild Card. I know it's bold, but I made this prediction on my blog at the beginning of the season and I'm sticking to it. They've had some disappointing offensive performers, but I think they are all capable of bouncing back. Aaron Hill will pick it up, Brett Lawrie will be an immediate contributor, Rajai Davis will have another fabulous second half, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista will keep mashing, and the pitching around Ricky Romero will be better. I believe in the Jays, and I don't think the New York Yankees pitching can be this good anymore. I think Bartolo Colon's outing on Thursday is indicative of bad things to come for the their rotation, especially with Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano's health problems and no Joba Chamberlain.
8. My division winners are: NL West: Giants, NL Central: Brewers, NL East: Phils, NL Wildcard: Braves, AL West, Rangers, AL Central: White Sox, AL East: Red Sox, AL Wildcard: Blue Jays.

No "Thoughts From The Week That Was" this week, so we're going to hop straight into the "Mike Stanton Mancrush Meter". Right now, it sits at a 5. He dropped 2 homers on Saturday in Wrigley, meaning he could be primed for a huge second half. Because of those two bombs, coupled with the fact that he's tweeting more, I will bump the meter up to a 7. And with my family potentially planning a trip to Miami to see a baseball game, the thought of seeing him in person is making me all oogly-googly.

Joke of the week: In the talks to decide where we may go for this vacation, my mother asked me "if there would be available seats at a Marlins game."

Follow me on @TheKnurve. Much love everybody.

Waiver Saviors: July 14th, 2011

Three days without baseball games that matter and one of those days without an internet connection at home has me feeling like I've been through some sort of fantasy baseball detox program against my will. Who organized this intervention? (Probably my wife and kids).

If you're in a league that doesn't suck, now is the time to start evaluating each player on your roster to determine if they are part of the problem or part of the solution.

Let's take a look at some players possibly available on your league's waiver wire who could help your team bring home some fantasy baseball glory.

• OF Nate Schierholtz, SF (30% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) is hitting .425 (17/40) with a .700 SLG in the month of July with three home runs and eight RBI. His first half 5x5 line of .293/30/7/31/5 could easily be duplicated in the second half depending, though, if the Giants are buyers or sellers as the Trade Deadline approaches. Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell must go.
• OF Ben Revere, MIN (9.3% ESPN; 4% Yahoo!) was June's co-winner of the AL Rookie of the Month award with a .294 batting average and seven stolen bases. With Jason Kubel and Denard Span still on the DL, Revere should continue to get a chance to showcase his stuff. Target him for his ability to score runs and steal bases without killing your team's batting average while sacrificing home runs and power.
• RP Bobby Parnell, NYM (33.7% ESPN; 25% Yahoo!) and Jason Isringhausen, NYM (10.6% ESPN; 14% Yahoo!) could both be in the mix for saves and holds as a result of the Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaulkee trade. Ownership rates suggests fantasy owners are gambling on Parnell becoming the closer. If you're desperate for saves, grab whoever is available until it all shakes out. Both are must-owns in leagues using holds as a scoring category.
• RP Javy Guerra, LAD (18.5% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) seems to be the Dodgers' closer du jour. He's recorded their last two saves while striking out three over two innings pitched. A save is a save is a save. Pounce now and dump later, if necessary.
• OF Travis Snider, TOR (33.2% ESPN; 26% Yahoo!) has been on fire since his recall from AAA. In seven games, he's hitting .367 (11/30) with six doubles, one home run, eight RBI and six runs scored. A very productive second half could easily be a reality for him.
• 1B Casey Kotchman, TB (6.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is hitting .336 with a .394 OBP in 75 games this season. He won't bring much else on offense (3 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R) but could be a very nice fit as a CI, DH or UTIL player for a team needing a batting average boost in a deep league.
• C/1B Mike Napoli, TEX (65% ESPN; 72% Yahoo!) is worth checking your waiver wire for just in case he was dropped during his stint on the DL and is still lingering out there. In six games since his return from the DL, he has two home runs, eight RBI and a .316 batting average. He may only get four to five starts a week but for a player with catcher eligibility, he's a must own.

This may not be the "sexiest" group of names you'd hope to find when reading a "waivers" article but these are players who can help you make up ground or stay on top of the standings right now. Keeper and dynasty leagues have a very different set of challenges than the more common one-and-done leagues. Players like Mike Trout and Pedro Beato would certainly be worthy of a mention but I don't think either player is going to help you win your league this year. And I am a big believer of playing to win now while worrying about keepers once I'm out of the running or in the off season.

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 13th, 2011.

Warming In The 'Pen: The Premier AL Edition: July 12th, 2011

It's that time, folks.

Welcome to the initial installment of "Warming In The 'Pen"! I'm Jeff, your MC for this ride, and I hope it can be fun and insightful for everyone involved!

In case you're just tuning in, the purpose of this article series is to cover your closer and short relief needs. I'll review the stats and info from the last week in baseball, and present you some news and views on who's hot, who's not, and who's possibly worth a second look. Facts mixed with a healthy dose of opinion is what I hope to offer up for your perusal, and I hope for constructive and lively debate and commentary right back. This is give and take, ladies and gents. We'll work best together, and that's how we'll get the most out of it.

A few little things first:

• Just a reminder that the AL side of the house publishes Tuesdays, and the NL publishes Thursdays. Both will receive my same treatments and attentions!
• Any opinions in these articles are purely my own. They don't necessarily represent COSFBA, any other contributors or writers, MLB, its affiliates and teams... Yada yada quasi-legalese.
• I do not consider myself an expert by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is to give opinions with some factual backing, but any ultimate moves and views are up to you, dear fantasy baseball GM.

Now onto the meat and potatoes!

The article series is going to consist of four sections per article, each featuring at least reliever of personal note for that particular section. In this initial article, I'll take the time to introduce each section, what I look for, and then give my week's picks for each. Starting with the NL article on Thursday, it'll be much more compact and an easier read.

Are we ready? Hope so because. Here. We. GO!

• The first section is called "Doing Work". Put simply, this is the section where the most solid performers over the last week (usually combined with a solid season-to-date) are stationed. In my opinion, this section features players that are likely a known quantity, but if you can find them running free in your league, they're worth an immediate look.
• This week's pick is Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals. While his overall numbers may not astound off the bat (4-3, 4.03 ERA, 15/20 Sv, 33 K, 1.26 WHIP), his more recent performances have been more in-line with his career stats. In his last 10 games (10 IP), he's given up 1 earned run, while racking up 7 saves and 12 Ks. His OPS is a more-than-reasonable .500, which I feel shows that he's turning the corner after a rough start (his current OPS is a lofty .696 on the year). He's coming back to being the closer, and the bright spot, that an overall dismal Royals team needs for any hopes of improvement.
• The next section is "Unsung Heroes".  This section highlights the performances that may have gone "under the radar". There's pitchers that might not be those household names, but I feel like there's value in the hidden gems here. Maybe it's a depth or 6x6 league, or maybe it's someone to look at to steal some stats. It's always going to be someone to keep an eye on.
• The "Unsung Hero" for the week is the Boston Red Sox Daniel Bard. You won't find a better Holds man in the league right now, with a total of 21 holds "in the clubhouse" (4 Holds just in the last 7 days). While this guy won't be giving you big standard numbers (1-4 record, 1/3 Sv), this guy is a massive pick-me-up to the Boston starting staff and long relief. He's only allowed 14% of inherited runners to score (that's 3/22) in 41 G. He's sporting a paltry .492 OPS and a .206 BAbip (Batting Average for Balls In Play). He has 44 Ks in 44 IP. And, oh by the way, he's not allowed a run in his last 19.1 IP. This guy's an unknown (only owned in 19% of ESPN leagues), absolutely rock-solid short reliever who's good for holds and Ks in deep and advanced leagues. He might also be the best available option in the BoSox bullpen for saves if Jonathan Papelbon was to go belly-up for any reason.
• Our third section is known as "The Heart-Attack Award". The recipients of this "award" are decent performers. Their methods, however, are the ones guilty of costing fans and fantasy owners hair, sleep, and quite possibly tens of dollars in antacids weekly. These pitchers will mostly be mid- to upper-tier pitchers that are having the recent up-and-down performances (those that are more prolonged get their own category). While the players in this section aren't ones I feel should be dumped like weeks-old milk, extra caution is advised.
• The first-ever Heart Attack Award goes to the aforementioned Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox. While Paps has notched 4 saves and 10 Ks over the last 7 days, he's given up 3 earned runs (including a longball) and 6 H in 5 IP in the same timeframe. When you take those numbers by themselves, he doesn't seem horrible. But takes these along with this week's line: 3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .669 OPS, .363 BAbip. He's on-pace to give up only 14 BB (close to a career best), but he's also on-pace to give up a career-worst 65 H. My interpretation and opinion is that Paps is either starting to swap his finesse for pure 'power pitching', or the league's hitters are starting to figure him out. His 0.51 GO/AO (Ground Outs / Air Outs) ratio seems to imply that he's getting hit harder (or at least more solidly) this season in comparison. It's something to keep a watch of.
• Lastly, we have the "ZOMBIE!" category. As the name implies, the players mentioned in this section should be avoided unless desperation is in the air. Even then, ensure you have a shotgun or (more appropriately) a baseball bat handy. These players will more than happily eat at your fantasy bottom line (while moaning, "STAAAAAAAAAATS!"). Just remember Rule #22, because it applies to fantasy baseball as much as it does the Zombie Apocalypse: "When in doubt, know your way out!"
• This weeks "ZOMBIE!" is Frank Francisco of the Toronto Blue Jays. Francisco saw limited work in the last 7 days (2 G), and the line was not impressive: 1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB. Yet he somehow managed to notch a save and 3 Ks. Of interest to me is the way he helped set the table for Travis Hafner's game-winning grand slam against Cleveland on Thursday (which is where the majority of that dismal line came from): a 1B, a 2B, and a BB. All this was without getting an out, in an attempt to close out a game that Toronto had well in hand. While he didn't directly give up the game-winner, he set the next pitcher up to have negative margin for error. Francisco is having a terrible year overall on top of the bombshell his last outing (5.92 ERA, 10/14 Sv, 1.849 WHIP, .880 OPS, .368 BAbip), so he is not an attractive option at all as your go-to closer.His viability as even a backup-to-the-backup in a deep league is highly questionable in my mind. There are also rumors flying around that the Toronto front office wants to put him back in a setup role, a move they'd made with Francisco earlier this year when he'd struggled in the closing role. This is a bad trend, and the only reason he'll come back into the closing role later this season is because of the futility of Toronto's 'pen. There are still 71.9% of the owners in ESPN's leagues that have faith in having this pitcher on their roster, but I expect that to drop significantly. There are too many better options.

So there you have it, folks. I promise things will refine and look (and likely sound) a lot clearer with the NL closers on Thursday, but the fluff needed to get out of the way.

Questions, comments, suggestions are always welcome in the boxes below, or by hitting me up on my Twitter feed: @JCPronkFan48

The Knurve To Say: July 11th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...the Braves are about to begin a dynasty.

Hey, the article isn’t called “The Knurve to Say” for no reason! I was having a conversation with one of my buddies who’s a Braves fan the other day. As we were talking about this team, I kept getting more and more shocked when I kept talking about how good this team is and how young they are.

Let’s start with the pitching. Sure, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are getting up there in years. But when you think about Jair Jurrjens (25), Tommy Hanson (24), and Brandon Beachy (24), there’s elite potential in each of those guys. And don’t forget about the two guys the Braves have in AAA right now. Mike Minor is only 23 and Julio Teheran is 20! Twenty years old and he’s already tasted the majors. They also have one guy in AA named Randall Delgado who the Braves consider a top 3 prospect in their own system and he's 21. And we haven’t even gotten to who I think is the best of these prospects, Kris Medlen. If you’ll remember, Medlen got hurt at the end of last year and needed Tommy John surgery after getting hit by a batted ball. I think this could dramatically help his career because it wasn’t like there was THAT much structural damage to the elbow and the Braves were just being cautious. With basically a new arm, Medlen could be scary in the next few years.

When we look at their bullpen, Jonny Venters is 26 and he has some of the best stuff in the majors. Craig Kimbrel, 23, looks like a competent closer of the future with a big arm and great stuff. Eric O’Flaherty is another middle relief guy who is just 26 with an ERA sitting at 1.10 at the halfway point this season.

The hitting is not as promising as the pitching, but it’s still pretty darn good. Jason Heyward is only going to get better in the next few years and he will anchor this offense for a very long time. I don’t see Freddie Freeman getting much better than he is now but I can see him being a solid 25/100 guy who is a good defender and will hit in the .290-.300 range for his career. Brian McCann is only 27, but people think he’s much older since he’s been in the league for five years now. I also have to think this year is an aberration for Dan Uggla. None of his peripherals indicate a decline and his game is pretty straightforward. He’s an abnormally large man playing a relatively evasive position and I can see him performing well for the duration of his contract.

Those four guys are still very young and have enormous potential. I think the Braves have let Beachy, Minor, Teheran, and Medlan taste the majors at such a young age so they can use them as chips to make moves to shore up their offense long-term. I trust Frank Wren and I trust the Braves brand of clean and consistent baseball. They show up and get the job done, and with their youthful and talented arms, the outlook for this franchise is among the brightest in the game.

My opinion: I’ll arbitrarily say the Braves win four World Series this decade if everybody stays healthy. Why the hell not?

Thoughts from the week that was:

• I’d be remiss if I didn't mention the tragedy in Texas last week. I can’t imagine how terrible that family feels, especially the man’s son. There’s nothing good about this situation but it seems like the Texas Rangers are handling this very supportively and professionally. Hopefully some good will come of this despite it being such a terrible situation.
• Hanley Ramirez is back. Get him if you can.
• Uggla’s catching on. I think last year really spoiled Uggla owners as to his potential. Remember, before last year, he was a .250 hitter who would get his 30 home runs and 95+ RBI. In July, he’s been a .250 hitter with two dingers and five RBI. His final line will look like .230 or so, but that means he’s going to have a big second half.
• Joey Votto is overrated. Sure he’s posting an elite slash line (.325/.440/.510). Sure he’s walking a ton and scoring runs. But when push comes to shove, he’s on pace for 25 HR/100 RBI. And while fantasy owners aren't upset with those numbers, people who have drafted guys like Ryan Howard and Paul Konerko for much cheaper are getting better numbers at a much better value.
• Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre and Emilio Bonifacio are all speedsters I’m buying right now. If you can get them for cheap, have at it.
• Given J. J. Putz’s injury history the past few years, if you have David Hernandez and you have space on your bench, hang onto him. He’s been cash money for the past two weeks and he’s worth keeping around.

The Mike Stanton Man-crush Meter was at a 3 last week. Many of you know I was very disappointed in Mike ‘the skull crusher’ Stanton, but he put together quite a week last week. I’m going to put it back up to a 5 this week. It would be a 6, but one of his homers went less than 400 feet and if I’m going to invest some of my love in another man, he’s going to need to hit every homer more than 400 feet. It’s that simple.

Joke of the week: Hot Dog walks into a bar, bartender says “we don’t serve food here.”

Have a great week everybody! Follow me @TheKnurve with questions or comments and follow fellow contributor @JCPronkFan48 for all things relief pitching-related.

The Knurve To Say: July 5th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...not only is Brian McCann the best catcher in baseball now, but he has been the best for the past five years.

When my love of fantasy baseball was developing, I had one player who I wanted to get on my team every year; Placido Polanco. He was a great defender for the Tigers, he hit for average, he scored runs, it was awesome. But after a while, I realized how purely marginal a phenomenal batting average is when a player doesn’t contribute anywhere else. It’s the same reason you could argue Tony Gwynn was such an overrated fantasy player outside of his prime because he hit for a good average and did nothing else.

But just as Gwynn received so much hype during his career, I think Joe Mauer is the same, if not worse. The top three catchers in the past five or six years have been Mauer, Victor Martinez, and McCann. In looking back at the numbers, Martinez and McCann are a cut above, fantasy-wise.

Many fantasy baseball owners are like I was when I was younger (not to belittle fantasy baseball owners by comparing them with my childhood stupidity). We are fascinated with batting average. We can see a .320+ AVG and totally neglect the other holes in a player’s game, and this is the year where we notice the entirety of Mauer’s flaws, especially since McCann is having such a phenomenal year.

The McCann-Mauer comparison isn’t even close in my eyes, and that’s even taking into account 2009, when Mauer had his MVP year. When we evaluate players year-to-year in fantasy, we want to see consistency and consistent contributions. Mauer’s 2009 has set the table for a profoundly disappointing 2010 and, so far, 2011. The reason I think this is worthy of noting and worthy of writing this is because of the position they play. Unless you over-invest, fantasy owners don’t expect phenomenal production from their catchers. But the reason McCann has been better, is better now, and will be better than Mauer is because he contributes more consistently in more categories from a position you don’t expect much out of.

My opinion: From now on, stay the heck away from Mauer and players like him. There will always be someone in your league who thinks his batting average potential is worth way more than it actually is.

Thoughts from the past week that was:

• Hanley Ramirez is back! He had a few great games last week and he’s still a complete defensive liability, but a trip to the launch-pad known as Rangers Ballpark may have cured his woes. The Marlins may not have their lives together, but I am a believer that Hanley will right the ship and this team will play better baseball from here on out.
• Somebody get Aramis Ramirez a juice box. He hit six homers last week! SIX! That’s unbelievable. If you read my NL All-Star predictions, you’ll know that I thought third base in the NL was a vast wasteland. As much as people love to rip on Aramis, he is on pace for around 20/80 with around a .300 average to end the season. It’s amazing, but that may be the best stat line a third baseman in the NL posts this year, and it’s not even close. I’m buying this hot streak.
• If somebody’s going to get A-Ram a juice box, somebody get Dee Gordon a Triple Thick Milkshake. I admire the fight in this kid, but I just don’t know if he is big enough to be successful in the big leagues. I want him to succeed, I really do, but I question if he is capable of generating the bat speed necessary to get past first base even though his speed is uber-vuluptuous.
• After homering off both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, I’m fully ready to say Jose Bautista is back. I said a few weeks ago to sell on him. A large part of me would still sell unless you’re playing him at third base. This is not to say he can’t hit 20 homers in the second half, but I feel like he’s becoming one of those guys whose name recognition is growing among fantasy owners. I think there’s a correlation to the fact that he received the most all-star votes of all-time. People may just overpay a bunch for him. If you can fill holes in your team by getting rid of Bautista, I would do it.
• I’m going to say this now and I know it’s going to sound crazy. If there’s any feedback on this comment, I will write a separate article on it next week or a special article later this week. If the Pittsburgh Pirates make the playoffs (HUGE IF), then I think there is a case to be made for Joel Hanrahan to be the NL MVP. The Pirates run differential this season is +2. If they don’t have Hanrahan, the best closer in the game this season, then there is absolutely ZERO reason for optimism on this team going forward. I never thought I’d be one to advocate for a closer to be an MVP, but a 1.37 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 25-for-25 in save chances is hard to refute on a team with a AAA offense.

Last week, the Mike Stanton Man-Crush Meter sat at a 5. This week, I’m sad to say, it’s dropped to a 3. I mean, what the hell Mike. I shamelessly and embarrassingly dedicate a whole section of my new articles to you and you do this to me? No home runs since June 11?!?! Really?!?!? What the hell, bro?! You’re not doing anything well right now and it’s so frustrating. I don’t even know how to react. Trying to throw in a few steals at the end of the month isn’t going to make me feel better. If you don’t hit a dinker in the next week, we’re going to have some problems. But if you do make Prince Fielder’s NL Home Run Derby team, you’ll have great potential to captivate me again.

Joke of the week: What did the snail say when he was riding the turtle? WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!! (Thanks Matt Lauer)

David Kaplan
@TheKnurve
DHKaplan17@yahoo.com

The Knurve's American League All-Star Ballot

Shalom Everybody!

Ever since they made the All-Star game "mean something" by having it decide homefield in the World Series, I've had mixed feelings about the game. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the person the San Francisico Giants have to thank the most for winning last year's World Series (not getting there) is not Tim Lincecum, not Cody Ross, not Brian Wilson, not even Brian Wilson's beard, but......Brian McCann?!?!?

McCann's bases clearing double in the All-Star game propelled the NL to victory and gave the Giants homefield where Jonathan Sanchez, Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain were stupendous last year. I should also mention that I'm a huge believer in the Home Run Derby ruining a players swing for the second half, so I never want my fantasy hombres to be in the contest. I will say I'm looking forward to the bombs that are going to be dropped in Arizona.

So it is with this frustration in mind that I give you my American League All-Star starters, but I'll have two names under each position. The first name is who it WILL be and the second name is who it SHOULD/COULD be, just like this game SHOULD/COULD be an exhibition. If I say it "should be", then you know I feel strongly about the 2nd name, but if I say "could be" then you know a case could be made.

Catcher
It will be: Victor Martinez
He qualifies there, so it will be him. This one's all in the name for Victor. He is not the best catcher on his team (hint, hint...) but he's hitting solidly over .320 and is producing runs at a pretty solid clip. His production is a big reason the Detroit Tigers are in good shape to take a very winnable division.

It should be: Alex Avila
Now Avila is the best catcher on the Tigers and he's having a breakout year. I passed on the chance to pick him up in one of my leagues in favor of Wilson Ramos, and that's been my biggest regret so far this fantasy season. He's showing great flashses of power, has 10-steal potential, and is an even bigger reason than Martinez, and maybe even Miguel Cabrera, that the Tigers are where they are. Avila is the MVP of the Tigers this season because without his production, this team would be as average as every other team in the AL Central seems.

First Base
It will be: Adrian Gonzalez
This one is pretty straighforward. Gonzalez has been the most complete hitter in the AL and it's not even close. He's scoring runs, hitting for power, hitting for average, driving runs in at a ridiculous clip, and has carried the Red Sox, at times. People forget that he started somewhat slow, hitting a paltry .314 in April. What? David? That's not paltry!!! It is when you consider he hit .341 in May and .404 in June with 15 dingers in those two months. The man is a stud.

It should be: Paul Konerko
This is not a knock on Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Mark Teixeira at all, but Konerko has done everything but steal bases for the White Sox when the rest of their offense has been as useless as bacon to someone who keeps kosher. Like V-Mart, it's refreshing to see Konerko put these past two seasons together and bounce back to the stud he was when the White Sox won it all last decade. Think about the White Sox offensive potential in Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham. When you consider none of those guys have been hitting and it's been Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin keeping this underperforming team in the race. Many players can fold under that pressure, but Konerko has excelled.

Second Base
It will be: Robinson Cano
I don't have many qualms with this. I have really enjoyed watching Cano's career blossom in the way that it has. He hit .342 in his second full year in the bigs with just 15 homers. He has evolved his game to hit for power and not feel like he has to pull everything, which I think is rare for a young player who is entering his prime. I also like the fact that Cano was a homegrown Yankee. The fact that he came from their farm system is refreshing. He's hovered around .300 the whole season despite not being the most patient hitter, but he makes it work. This is a pretty clear choice.

It could be: Ian Kinsler
I only say this because Kinsler is Jewish. Just kidding. Seriously though, when Kinsler is healthy, he gives such an unbelievable boost to the Texas Rangers. His batting average is down a little bit this year, but with double digit homers and steals, already. His BABIP is 40 points lower than his career mark, so I can see him having a big second half if he's healthy. His run production is also down, but there's only so much he can do since he's been leading off five out of every six games.

Shortstop
It will be: Asdrubal Cabrera
He's been the rock of the overperforming Indians offense. He's been hitting for power, stealing bases and simply doing it all for the Cleveland Indians. I don't think there's much of an argument here. Jeter's days as an All-Star are done. Who better to fill his shoes than a player as similar to him as Cabrera. Cabrera has a touch more power than Jeter did but he's also a stud defensively, which us fantasy players have to take into account, as boring as that may be.

It could be: Jhonny Peralta
There are a lot of options here, including J. J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus, but I think Peralta has been a critical performer for the Tigers. He's on pace for around 25 HR/95 RBI and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. If you told the Tigers at the beginning of the season these would be Peralta's halfway stats, then they'd have given you a hot dog. Chubby Jhonny Peralta could be eating tons of hot dogs in Arizona.

Third Base
It will be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any argument here? He is head and shoulders better than any other third baseman in the AL. This is the weakest position, by far, in fantasy and the majors this year, so what's to argue with here? I chronicled in one of my "Knurve to Say" articles that Bautista was having a brutal June, but his April and May will put him in the All-Star game. He's on pace for 10 steals, he takes walks, scores runs, he does it all. I boldly predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to get the Wildcard, and I truly believe this team has it all. Bautista is the anchor.

It should be: Jose Bautista
Is there really any arguing here? Sure Alex Rodriguez has a case, but I can't see any possible scenario where America would feel A-Rod gets the nod over Bautista, who is finally getting the recognition for what he's been doing.

Outfield
It will be: Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki
I'll start with the two locks: Granderson and Ellsbury. Is there even any question? These two guys are studs who you got for pretty cheap on draft day compared to the levels they have performed. AL Outfield is so weak this season that these two are shoo-ins. The pragmatist in me wants to be realistic and say Ichiro's going to get the votes to become an All-Star because he always does. He is starting to pick it back up, so it's not a completely lame assertion. B. J. Upton has hit 11 more dingers with the same number of steals and significantly worse batting average, so it might be six of one half a dozen of the other.

It should be: Granderson, Ellsbury and Upton
As for Upton, people want to rip on his batting average, and that's pretty easy because it's THAT terrible, but if you look at his counting stats, he's on pace for another 25 HR/45 SB season, which makes the batting average much easier to swallow. Considering the other possible names for this list are Alex Gordon and Brennan Boesch, I think we can be confident in this tandem.

Starting Pitcher
It will be: Justin Verlander
I think Verlander is well-liked enough across the country that he has to be the favorite here. As much as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will garner a ton of votes, I'd hope baseball fans can appreciate Verlander's dominance this season. With this being another "Year of the Pitcher", it's not easy to pick this spot, but Verlander leads the majors in K's, WHIP, and Wins. His ERA is a full run higher than Weaver's, but the defense behind Verlander is 24th in the majors in Fielding Percentage whereas the Angels are 4th in the AL (8th in the majors).

It could be: Jered Weaver
There's certainly a great case to be made for Weaver. His April was Zack Greinke-esque (circa 2009) and he has established himself as a dominant starter in the AL. Along with Verlander, he's proven himself durable and reliable. Aside from one slight hiccup against the Indians, he's been as good as they come. When you're 6'7", throwing downhill is much better, especially when you're able to locate your off-speed stuff as well as he has.

So there it is... thoughts? Tweet me @TheKnurve. I'd love some feedback!
-David Kaplan