Waiver Saviors: Post-Trade Deadline Pickups

Now that the July 31st Trade Deadline has come and gone, it's time to look through the waiver wires to see if there are players available who may have directly or indirectly benefited from a trade.

• 1B Derrek Lee, PIT (43% ESPN; 30% Yahoo!; 48% CBS) will officially become the Pirates every day first baseman now that Lyle Overbay was designated for assignment (DFA). Over his last 15 games, Lee is hitting .333 (15-for-45) with three home runs, seven RBI and a 1.032 OPS. Being out of the basement in Baltimore to a pennant race in Pittsburgh could be exactly what this veteran needs to wake up his bat for a productive two month stretch.
• OF Jason Bourgeois, HOU (30% ESPN; 17% Yahoo! 36% CBS) should benefit from Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence being shipped out of Houston. Since returning from the DL in late July, he's gone 9-for-25 (.360) with his first home run of the season and five stolen bases in his last four starts. If you need speed, Bourgeois is a must-have at this point.
• 2B Jose Altuve, HOU (1% ESPN; 2% Yahoo!; 12% CBS) began his big league career with a seven game hitting streak and is now 14-for-39 (.359) over 11 games. He hasn't shown any pop or speed, so his value is currently limiting to batting average. Deep keeper, dynasty and NL-leagues need to pay attention to his progress, going forward.
• 1B/3B Chris Davis, BAL (0.4% ESPN; 2% Yahoo!; 17% CBS) finally got his wish to be traded away from the Rangers system. He'll be given an opportunity in Baltimore to show if he can make it happen at the major league level. It's hard to ignore the power potential he's shown at the AAA level. So I guess it's "put up or shut up" time.
• 1B/OF Lucas Duda, NYM (3% ESPN; 3% Yahoo!; 15% CBS) seems to be the primary benefactor of the Carlos Beltran trade. NL-Only league owners are probably the most interested in his services.
• OF Ryan Ludwick, PIT (44% ESPN; 29% Yahoo!; 57% CBS) will probably be in the mix for the majority of playing time in left field for the Pirates, which could spell trouble for Jose Tabata, Alex Presley and Garrett Jones.
• SS Rafael Furcal, STL (23% ESPN; 33% Yahoo!; 40% CBS) was brought in to be the Cardinals' starting shortstop and maybe a change of scenery will help get his average up over the .200 mark sooner than later.
• OF Jon Jay, STL (20% ESPN; 12% Yahoo!; 38% CBS) takes over in center field for the recently exiled Colby Rasmus. He's a .300 hitter with the ability to reach double digits and should benefit all around from hitting in front of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman.
• SS Dee Gordon, LAD (2% ESPN; 3% Yahoo! 23% CBS) inherits the starting shortstop job due to Furcal's departure but really only brings his speed to the fantasy baseball game. He's 9-of-12 in stolen base attempts in 23 career games for a pace of 63 steals and 21 caught stealings over 162 game average.
• 1B Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (1% ESPN; n/a Yahoo!; n/a CBS) was called up from AA to be the D'Backs everyday first baseman after Juan Miranda failed to contribute and Brandon Allen was traded to Oakland. You'll have to wait for Yahoo! and CBS to add him to their player databases but feel free to pounce in your ESPN leagues if you believe he's the real deal. His 30 home runs (54 XBH) in 103 games this season are something to get excited about.

Keep an eye on teams that were sellers like Houston, Baltimore, San Diego and Seattle to give some young players a long look over the next couple of months. You may find some short and long term solutions, depending on your leagues' settings.

Line of the Day: July 20th, 2011

Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers allowed just three hits and struck out 12 over eight shutout innings to beat Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants 1-0. His 167 strikeouts this season are tops in the majors. (video recap)

Line: 8 IP | 3 H | 0 ER | 1 BB | 12 K; W | QS

(box score)

My fantasy perspective: Kershaw continues to prove he's right there with the rest of today's elite starting pitchers and is putting up Cy Young-worthy numbers. He's now 11-4 with a 2.72 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 145.2 innings pitched.

A deeper look into his numbers show his xFIP of 2.60 is actually lower than his ERA (that's a good thing) and his 10.32 K/9, 29% K%, 2.35 BB/9 and 6.6% BB% are all career-bests. He's currently ranked as the third-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball according to ESPN's Player Rater, too.

Oh yeah. I forgot to mention he's just 23 years old. The present, as well as the future, looks very bright for the young ace of the Dodgers. Now if only they could assemble a decent team around him.

Question: Where would you rank Kershaw among today's elite starting pitchers and who's ahead of him, if anyone?

---

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Investment Market: Buy, Sell and Hold: July 20th, 2011

Players in fantasy are merely investments. We each draft our team and try in earnest to make trades and waiver picks to maximize the value of our team. I no longer see Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez. I see the only three players currently in MLB who have shown the tools to actually reach 40/40 club (I will publish a special article on this as Kemp continues to approach the lofty goal.). That epitomizes a blue chip stock in fantasy baseball. I will continue to draft all three of them ahead of most players each and every season until they display trends to suggest otherwise. In order to play the fantasy game you need to know who to BUY, SELL and HOLD as the long season unwinds. Each Wednesday I will explore three players based on where their values are heading. This week I will examine a nosediving Hanley Ramirez, who I sold about four weeks ago in three leagues. I will salivate over Andrew McCutchen, who I have failed to obtain in any of my four leagues. Lastly, I will review the astounding GB% of Charlie Morton and weigh its affect when compared to his control issues.

Hanley Ramirez (27)
You've likely read about the low percentage of line drives, highest GB% (he's not alone here), ISO below league average, not hitting fastballs, etc. Many experts claim they didn't see this coming and they have no idea why this is happening. This is exactly why i don't listen to most so-called experts.

I'm not a scout and I don't have the luxury of knowing exactly what goes on in the trainers room. What I do know is that the trending hasn't been pretty for some time now. 2011 will mark the fourth straight season in which his power numbers have dropped. In 2008, he hit 33 HR, followed by 24, and then 21 in 2010. Hanley burst onto the scene swiping 51 bases his first two seasons, followed by a steady hold in the 30 range. The speed seems to have held steady this season as the power numbers continue to dip.

Year	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
2008	33	35	0.239	0.940
2009	24	27	0.201	0.954
2010	21	32	0.175	0.853
2011	9	17	0.140	0.742

Hanley has been a top pick for several years now. As a shortstop, he needs to continue to hit for power in order to hold his place atop the draft value pool. Without 20 HR pop, he's just a another speedy middle infielder. How overvalued is he?

MI	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
A	17	12	0.206	0.838
B	11	10	0.206	0.834
C	17	12	0.222	0.801

(A) Asdrubal Cabrera (B) Ben Zobrist (C) Danny Espinosa

If you can sell Hanley over his next hot streak I would do it. I would even sell .75 on the dollar if you have to. He may bounce back next season when the Marlins move into the new ball park, but current trending suggests the power has been slowing for several years now. At such a young age, this is troubling indeed. SELL

Andrew McCutchen (24)
At the time of this writing article, the Pirates are in first place in the NL Central. Andrew has been a large part of the newfound success in Pittsburgh. We already know he was a high profile prospect and we all expected him to provide five category goodness for fantasy managers. He has arrived. He's still crazy young too. In keeper and dynasty leagues, he's a golden nugget who you must own.

Year	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
2009	12	22	0.185	0.836
2010	16	33	0.163	0.814
2011	14	15	0.209	0.867

We know how scarce a true 30/30 player is in baseball. Andrew is on target this season. We also need to keep in mind that players who steal 30+ bases seldom provide enough pop in their bats to be in the .800 OPS range. We're looking at a future five category stud who will carry fantasy teams for years to come. How good is McCutchen so far this season?

OF	HR	SB	ISO	OPS
A	24	27	0.275	0.983
B	15	14	0.204	0.846
C	13	16	0.19	0.829

(A) Matt Kemp (B) Justin Upton (C) Carlos Gonzalez

IF you can somehow pry McCutchen from any owner, you should. He could eventually get injured by playing all-out defense, so use that in your sales pitch. Bottom line, this kid is going to hit or come close to 30/30 this season and should continue to provide plenty of five category goodness for several more years to come. BUY

Charlie Morton (27)
If I was told before the season began we'd have another Pirate in my inaugural article I'd have told everyone they were sniffing glue. I can tell you to hold onto Cargo, but isn't that obvious? Morton is a very interesting investment right now for several reasons. First, he's playing for what could be "THE" up and coming team in baseball right now. They just drafted two spectacular pitchers and stole a couple of hitters in the draft. Should they sign everyone by the deadline, things could be scary in Pittsburgh very soon. Neil Huntington is saving this team from many years of misery.

Secondly, you have to look at Morton's 61.1 GB% this season. Why is this important? You can not hit a HR off a guy who induces the Ground Ball at a rate like Morton. As long as the Pirates continue to sport sufficient defensive play behind him he will continue to be a dangerous presence on the mound. His GB/FB is 3.52. This is insane.

It's hard to pin down what to expect from a guy who has just rebuilt himself. In deeper leagues, he needs to be owned and possibly targeted depending on your specific needs. He's not going to provide a ton of K's but he does have a respectable stat line so far this season.

102 IP | 8 W | 60 K | 40 BB | 110 H | 0.26 HR/9 | 3.62 ERA | 3.49 FIP

You may ask why he's not a strong buy? His 71.6% LOB is a red flag, and his 3.53 BB rate is far too high compared to his low 5.29 K rate. His 1.47 WHIP is much too high for him to continue to rely on the double play. That said, he could harness his control and become someone worthy of fantasy stardom. Morton is one of the most intriguing players in fantasy at the moment. If he limits the walks to the 3.0 range and gets his K rate over 6, he could become very good. If the BB rate falls under 3.0 and the K rate enters the 7.0/9 IP territory, he will be a star. HOLD


Be sure to comment here and follow me on Twitter @SheriffStathead.

The Knurve To Say: Second Half Guarantees

This week, I have The Knurve to Say...
…the following eight things will happen in the second half!

1. Matt Kemp ends the year going 40/40. I know I have my Mike Stanton Mancrush, but my Kemp one is growing, as well. What’s not to like about a guy who's doing what he’s doing and is putting a team and an organization on his back? Sure, he was an embarrassment in the All-Star Game, but he's going to keep doing in the second half exactly what he did in the first half. If you take a look at his peripherals, his better batting eye and improved luck has contributed to his ascension. He's taking more walks than he did last year and he's striking out a little less. He's choosing better pitches to hit, he's hitting them, and he's running when he can.
2. The Chicago White Sox will win the AL Central, and it's going to be close with the…Detroit Tigers. I just can't do it. I can’t convince myself that the Cleveland Indians will hang in here. I expect improved performances from underperformers like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham alongside stronger pitching from John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson. There's too much talent, albeit streaky, on this White Sox team to think they can't win this division. I'm still a believer that this is their division to lose.
3. There are several guys who I think are at their peak value that I would look to deal while they’re this good. I know this may sound crazy, but many people in your league would consider Adrian Gonzalez the best player in the game right now. But I would use his Home Run Derby performance to your advantage if you own him. I think next year is the year we see the power out of him that we were all expecting. I think Gonzalez hits closer to the low 30's than the 40+ people expected. If you can fill holes with Gonzalez, who doesn’t contribute anything to one category as it is, then go ahead and sell him in a two-for-one. I feel the same way about Lance Berkman, Jair Jurrjens, Brennan Boesch and Michael Morse.
4. On the opposite end, here are guys who will have big second halves: Troy Tulowitzki (because he always does), Ichiro Suzuki, Rios, Dunn, Bud Norris, Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez.
5. If you want more in-depth answers on why I feel the way I do about the players in bullets #3 and #4, leave a comment.
6. Behind Kemp, the most valuable outfielder will be Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm starting to believe that he is capable of these power numbers. He's already eclipsed his career high in the majors or minors for one season, but I think the fact that he’s fully healthy and hitting in front of that offense makes him seeeeeeexy.
7. The Toronto Blue Jays win the AL Wild Card. I know it's bold, but I made this prediction on my blog at the beginning of the season and I'm sticking to it. They've had some disappointing offensive performers, but I think they are all capable of bouncing back. Aaron Hill will pick it up, Brett Lawrie will be an immediate contributor, Rajai Davis will have another fabulous second half, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista will keep mashing, and the pitching around Ricky Romero will be better. I believe in the Jays, and I don't think the New York Yankees pitching can be this good anymore. I think Bartolo Colon's outing on Thursday is indicative of bad things to come for the their rotation, especially with Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano's health problems and no Joba Chamberlain.
8. My division winners are: NL West: Giants, NL Central: Brewers, NL East: Phils, NL Wildcard: Braves, AL West, Rangers, AL Central: White Sox, AL East: Red Sox, AL Wildcard: Blue Jays.

No "Thoughts From The Week That Was" this week, so we're going to hop straight into the "Mike Stanton Mancrush Meter". Right now, it sits at a 5. He dropped 2 homers on Saturday in Wrigley, meaning he could be primed for a huge second half. Because of those two bombs, coupled with the fact that he's tweeting more, I will bump the meter up to a 7. And with my family potentially planning a trip to Miami to see a baseball game, the thought of seeing him in person is making me all oogly-googly.

Joke of the week: In the talks to decide where we may go for this vacation, my mother asked me "if there would be available seats at a Marlins game."

Follow me on @TheKnurve. Much love everybody.

Waiver Saviors: July 14th, 2011

Three days without baseball games that matter and one of those days without an internet connection at home has me feeling like I've been through some sort of fantasy baseball detox program against my will. Who organized this intervention? (Probably my wife and kids).

If you're in a league that doesn't suck, now is the time to start evaluating each player on your roster to determine if they are part of the problem or part of the solution.

Let's take a look at some players possibly available on your league's waiver wire who could help your team bring home some fantasy baseball glory.

• OF Nate Schierholtz, SF (30% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) is hitting .425 (17/40) with a .700 SLG in the month of July with three home runs and eight RBI. His first half 5x5 line of .293/30/7/31/5 could easily be duplicated in the second half depending, though, if the Giants are buyers or sellers as the Trade Deadline approaches. Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell must go.
• OF Ben Revere, MIN (9.3% ESPN; 4% Yahoo!) was June's co-winner of the AL Rookie of the Month award with a .294 batting average and seven stolen bases. With Jason Kubel and Denard Span still on the DL, Revere should continue to get a chance to showcase his stuff. Target him for his ability to score runs and steal bases without killing your team's batting average while sacrificing home runs and power.
• RP Bobby Parnell, NYM (33.7% ESPN; 25% Yahoo!) and Jason Isringhausen, NYM (10.6% ESPN; 14% Yahoo!) could both be in the mix for saves and holds as a result of the Francisco Rodriguez-to-Milwaulkee trade. Ownership rates suggests fantasy owners are gambling on Parnell becoming the closer. If you're desperate for saves, grab whoever is available until it all shakes out. Both are must-owns in leagues using holds as a scoring category.
• RP Javy Guerra, LAD (18.5% ESPN; 11% Yahoo!) seems to be the Dodgers' closer du jour. He's recorded their last two saves while striking out three over two innings pitched. A save is a save is a save. Pounce now and dump later, if necessary.
• OF Travis Snider, TOR (33.2% ESPN; 26% Yahoo!) has been on fire since his recall from AAA. In seven games, he's hitting .367 (11/30) with six doubles, one home run, eight RBI and six runs scored. A very productive second half could easily be a reality for him.
• 1B Casey Kotchman, TB (6.9% ESPN; 7% Yahoo!) is hitting .336 with a .394 OBP in 75 games this season. He won't bring much else on offense (3 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R) but could be a very nice fit as a CI, DH or UTIL player for a team needing a batting average boost in a deep league.
• C/1B Mike Napoli, TEX (65% ESPN; 72% Yahoo!) is worth checking your waiver wire for just in case he was dropped during his stint on the DL and is still lingering out there. In six games since his return from the DL, he has two home runs, eight RBI and a .316 batting average. He may only get four to five starts a week but for a player with catcher eligibility, he's a must own.

This may not be the "sexiest" group of names you'd hope to find when reading a "waivers" article but these are players who can help you make up ground or stay on top of the standings right now. Keeper and dynasty leagues have a very different set of challenges than the more common one-and-done leagues. Players like Mike Trout and Pedro Beato would certainly be worthy of a mention but I don't think either player is going to help you win your league this year. And I am a big believer of playing to win now while worrying about keepers once I'm out of the running or in the off season.

*All statistics quoted are from games played through July 13th, 2011.

The Knurve To Say: July 5th, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
...not only is Brian McCann the best catcher in baseball now, but he has been the best for the past five years.

When my love of fantasy baseball was developing, I had one player who I wanted to get on my team every year; Placido Polanco. He was a great defender for the Tigers, he hit for average, he scored runs, it was awesome. But after a while, I realized how purely marginal a phenomenal batting average is when a player doesn’t contribute anywhere else. It’s the same reason you could argue Tony Gwynn was such an overrated fantasy player outside of his prime because he hit for a good average and did nothing else.

But just as Gwynn received so much hype during his career, I think Joe Mauer is the same, if not worse. The top three catchers in the past five or six years have been Mauer, Victor Martinez, and McCann. In looking back at the numbers, Martinez and McCann are a cut above, fantasy-wise.

Many fantasy baseball owners are like I was when I was younger (not to belittle fantasy baseball owners by comparing them with my childhood stupidity). We are fascinated with batting average. We can see a .320+ AVG and totally neglect the other holes in a player’s game, and this is the year where we notice the entirety of Mauer’s flaws, especially since McCann is having such a phenomenal year.

The McCann-Mauer comparison isn’t even close in my eyes, and that’s even taking into account 2009, when Mauer had his MVP year. When we evaluate players year-to-year in fantasy, we want to see consistency and consistent contributions. Mauer’s 2009 has set the table for a profoundly disappointing 2010 and, so far, 2011. The reason I think this is worthy of noting and worthy of writing this is because of the position they play. Unless you over-invest, fantasy owners don’t expect phenomenal production from their catchers. But the reason McCann has been better, is better now, and will be better than Mauer is because he contributes more consistently in more categories from a position you don’t expect much out of.

My opinion: From now on, stay the heck away from Mauer and players like him. There will always be someone in your league who thinks his batting average potential is worth way more than it actually is.

Thoughts from the past week that was:

• Hanley Ramirez is back! He had a few great games last week and he’s still a complete defensive liability, but a trip to the launch-pad known as Rangers Ballpark may have cured his woes. The Marlins may not have their lives together, but I am a believer that Hanley will right the ship and this team will play better baseball from here on out.
• Somebody get Aramis Ramirez a juice box. He hit six homers last week! SIX! That’s unbelievable. If you read my NL All-Star predictions, you’ll know that I thought third base in the NL was a vast wasteland. As much as people love to rip on Aramis, he is on pace for around 20/80 with around a .300 average to end the season. It’s amazing, but that may be the best stat line a third baseman in the NL posts this year, and it’s not even close. I’m buying this hot streak.
• If somebody’s going to get A-Ram a juice box, somebody get Dee Gordon a Triple Thick Milkshake. I admire the fight in this kid, but I just don’t know if he is big enough to be successful in the big leagues. I want him to succeed, I really do, but I question if he is capable of generating the bat speed necessary to get past first base even though his speed is uber-vuluptuous.
• After homering off both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, I’m fully ready to say Jose Bautista is back. I said a few weeks ago to sell on him. A large part of me would still sell unless you’re playing him at third base. This is not to say he can’t hit 20 homers in the second half, but I feel like he’s becoming one of those guys whose name recognition is growing among fantasy owners. I think there’s a correlation to the fact that he received the most all-star votes of all-time. People may just overpay a bunch for him. If you can fill holes in your team by getting rid of Bautista, I would do it.
• I’m going to say this now and I know it’s going to sound crazy. If there’s any feedback on this comment, I will write a separate article on it next week or a special article later this week. If the Pittsburgh Pirates make the playoffs (HUGE IF), then I think there is a case to be made for Joel Hanrahan to be the NL MVP. The Pirates run differential this season is +2. If they don’t have Hanrahan, the best closer in the game this season, then there is absolutely ZERO reason for optimism on this team going forward. I never thought I’d be one to advocate for a closer to be an MVP, but a 1.37 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 25-for-25 in save chances is hard to refute on a team with a AAA offense.

Last week, the Mike Stanton Man-Crush Meter sat at a 5. This week, I’m sad to say, it’s dropped to a 3. I mean, what the hell Mike. I shamelessly and embarrassingly dedicate a whole section of my new articles to you and you do this to me? No home runs since June 11?!?! Really?!?!? What the hell, bro?! You’re not doing anything well right now and it’s so frustrating. I don’t even know how to react. Trying to throw in a few steals at the end of the month isn’t going to make me feel better. If you don’t hit a dinker in the next week, we’re going to have some problems. But if you do make Prince Fielder’s NL Home Run Derby team, you’ll have great potential to captivate me again.

Joke of the week: What did the snail say when he was riding the turtle? WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!! (Thanks Matt Lauer)

David Kaplan
@TheKnurve
DHKaplan17@yahoo.com

Official All-Star Ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, one of the requirements is to post an official All-Star ballot each year. As a member of the Fantasy Chapter, my ballot will have a fantasy skew to its nominees.

Let's get to the balloting, by league. Up first, COSFBA's 2011 American League All-Stars:

• C Alex Avila, DET (.303/28/10/45/3)
• 1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (.358/56/16/71/1)
• 2B Robinson Cano, NYY (.291/45/14/48/6)
• 3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY (.300/48/13/50/4)
• SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE (.290/50/12/43/12)
• OF Curtis Granderson, NYY (.279/68/21/55/12)
• OF Jose Bautista, TOR (.328/60/23/48/5)
• OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS (.304/55/9/39/24)
• DH David Ortiz, BOS (.311/47/17/48/1)
• SP Justin Verlander, DET (10-3, 2.38 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 124 K)
• RP Mariano Rivera, NYY (19 Saves, 1.84 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 23 K)

Now on to COSFBA's 2011 National League All-Stars:

• C Brian McCann, ATL (.300/27/13/43/2)
• 1B Prince Fielder, MIL (.306/48/21/67/0)
• 2B Rickie Weeks, MIL (.294/56/14/33/7)
• 3B Placido Polanco, PHI (.286/30/4/39/3)
• SS Jose Reyes, NYM (.334/58/3/31/27)
• OF Matt Kemp, LAD (.329/50/21/60/21)
• OF Ryan Braun, MIL (.309/55/15/57/16)
• OF Justin Upton, ARI (.304/45/12/39/14)
• SP Cole Hamels, PHI (9-4, 2.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 108 K)
• RP Joel Hanrahan, PIT (22 Saves, 1.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 31 K)

So there you have them, COSFBA's 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Star rosters. Agree? Disagree? Use the comments section to award your fantasy baseball all-stars. Feel free to comment on who you'd have as a reserve player, too.

NOTE: All stats referenced are as of games played through June 25th, 2011 and are for standard 5x5 scoring categories.

Line of the Day: June 20th, 2011

Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers did it all against Detroit. He pitched a two-hit shutout, striking out 12 and driving in two runs in a 4-0 victory over the Tigers. It was his second two-hit shutout in his last five starts and third of his career.

Line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K; W, QS, CG, SHO; 1-for-3, BB, 2 RBI

My fantasy perspective: This performance ranks as the second-highest of the season by any player (according to ESPN's formula). Might I remind you there have been two no-hitters already this season and neither rank higher.

Kershaw currently leads the majors with 117 strikeouts in 107.2 (9.8 K/9 ratio) and seems to be firing on all cylinders. Plus his BB/9 ratio is at a career-low 2.7 compared to his overall career ratio of 3.9. It's no surprise his K/BB ratio is at a career-high of 3.66 compared to his career average of 2.40.

At just 23 years old, the future looks very bright for the Dodgers' ace. Lock him up in all keeper and dynasty leagues for as long as your format allows.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

The Knurve To Say: June 20th, 2011

Hello to all the COSFBA readers, and thank you for allowing me into your wonderful homes.  I'd first like to start off by wishing all the papas out there a very Happy Father's Day.  I hope you were fed too much, annoyed by your kids a little less, and finally got those Callaway golf balls you've wanted for a while but were too lazy to get yourself.

But anways, the name of this article is, "The Knurve To Say".  I'll make some awesomely bold, yet stunningly correct assertions and then do my best to back it up.  So here we go!

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...
... Carl Crawford this year is Curtis Granderson from last year!
I tweeted this the other day @TheKnurve (first shameless plug), but I wanted to talk a little bit more about a revelation I had earlier this week and that is "a comparison between Crawford this year and Granderson last year".  Many fantasy owners, and certainly the Red Sox, have been very disappointed with Crawford's production to this point, and reasonably so.  He's only on pace for 14 dingers, 19 steals and a .243 AVG, which is a much slower pace than we were anticipating out of the number-one outfielder off the board in many league's drafts.  Both men also have to battle the stigma that they cannot hit lefties. Granderson seems to have figured it out (.277 with 9 HR in 83 at-bats) while Crawford is struggling mightily, hitting just .151 in 86 at-bats against southpaws this season.

Some of you may or may not remember Granderson got off to a similarly atrocious start last year, posting a two-HR April (and both dingers came on the opening weekend in Fenway) and just a .221 AVG before missing almost all of May with a groin injury.  Granderson came back and struggled some more before having what Yankee fans may start calling "The Meeting" with hitting coach Kevin Long, who shortened up his swing and made it fit to Yankee Stadium. Granderson hit a total of 14 stinkers in August and September and the rest, as they say, is history.  The adjustments Granderson made with Long were to shorten up his swing and eliminate some of the extraneous movement that slowed him down so much.

In looking at Crawford's swing, I see some similar problems with extraneous movement.  Both men left pitchers parks, entered hitters parks and signed big old contracts, therefore lofting expectations about what they are capable of.  But we have to remember adjustment periods are necessary to help cater swings to ballparks to fit their skill-set.  I'm not saying Crawford and Granderson are identical players (although they are similar), I'm simply saying if Crawford can take a page out of Adrian Gonzalez's book and figure out how to fight lefties off the other way with the short porch in left-field, then he'll be the fantasy player we all hoped he would be.  So to you, Crawford owners, expect him to start figuring lefties out in Fenway. He's just too talented not to.

The impetus for this whole idea was taking a look at Crawford's speed numbers and realizing how much hitting at the bottom of the order is hurting his fantasy value.  I owned Granderson last season and was furious he was hitting at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. If he could just get to that 2-hole then it would turn him into the offensive force we all expected. Just look what he's done in that spot this year: .288 AVG, 17 shtoinkers, 44 RBI and 9 SB.  #Winning.

As strange as this may seem, I think Crawford's injury will help him in the long run.  I'm pretty convinced Granderson's injury forced him to tighten things up at the dish so maybe the same will happen to Crawford.  I do want to mention with the season Jacoby Ellsbury is having, I don't think Crawford is ever going to hit those speed numbers we hoped he would.  I highly doubt he ever tops 50 steals in a Red Sox uniform. I look for him to be in the 35-40 range when he finally figures his life out.

So now that I've gotten that little tangent out of the way, here are some fantasy thoughts I had from this past week:

• Things are getting ugly for the Marlins. Watching this team play baseball has been as painful as listening to a Lil' B song.  For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, watch this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m5CIcbytfM). They actually have the bullpen and I am a believer in their offense, but with Hanley Ramirez as disappointing as he's been and Chris Coghlan getting sent down, it's hard to keep the faith. I truly believe this team has all the pieces. Sure, they may have been playing above their heads the first two months of the season, but I think we all know they're not THIS bad.  I'm definitely buying low on Hanley, for the right price. It's times like these in keeper leagues where you can pounce on a sell-high/buy-low situation while catch the opposing owner off guard. This might just be one of those years for Hanley.
• Adrian Gonzalez is a legitimate Triple Crown candidate. I was worried about his shoulder going into the year, but there are nights like last Tuesday where the Red Sox had five hits against the Jays and Gonzalez had 3 of them. Those are the performances that make you think this guy is onto something, especially considering he was 13-for-30 this week with three clobbershows and seven RBI.
• Going off of A-Gon, I have to say I'm starting to lose a little faith in Jose Bautista. Something has looked off about him in the past three weeks. Someone in one of my leagues just traded him for Matt Kemp straight up, and I think it was a great deal. He's slugging just .333 this month and pitchers are just not throwing to him. And guess who's been the beneficiary?  The RED-HOT Adam Lind.  Don't think these two occurrences aren't directly tied. Lind has been hitting lefties since he's been back and with Bautista's amazing ability to take walks, pitchers are being forced to throw to Lind, and he's been raking. That's a trend I can see continuing. I'm not saying Bautista's going to fall off the face of the earth, but this might be a good sell-high opportunity while many analysts are saying he's the new number-one fantasy player.
• I think Billy Butler will be a Ray by the end of the season. Sell high on him now because that's a crappy hitter’s park and he can't hit home runs.
• Since I'm talking a lot about selling, I want to share some buying opportunities. I know I own both of them on one team, but I think now is a buying opportunity for both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn. I think both of them are onto something. And while neither may turn it on in the AVG department, I can definitely see both of them taking different approaches at the plate that will help them in the long run.
• A walk-off balk? Are you kidding me, Mets?
• Don't look now but I think Jhonny Peralta might be legit.  He has been the primary beneficiary of hitting next to those guys Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera and I can see him putting up these numbers over the course of the year. He has mid-20's home run power with the ability to hit for AVG. With middle infield power as weak as it has been, he is someone I might make a run at.
• I firmly believe that last weekend’s Brewers-Red Sox series will be a World Series Preview.

The Mike Stanton Man-Crush meter currently sits at a six. With no home runs this week, Stanton has been letting me down. I take solace in the fact that nobody on the Marlins is hitting, so maybe his young, stellar, beautiful, strong, still-developing brain just needs to allow cooler heads to prevail in that clubhouse.  He'll get it back and will be jacking monster shots in no time.

Joke of the week: What time was it in Boston during the Stanley Cup? 15 past Luongo. The joke's even funnier because nobody cares about hockey.

I'll be doing this segment each and every Monday, so get used to it and let me know what you think.

David Kaplan aka The Knurve

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from June 12th, 2011

Here are some fantasy baseball-relevant tidbits and notes I picked up from box scores and recaps from games played on Sunday, June 12th, 2011:

• Miguel Olivo homered twice, giving him 10 on the season. It was the fourth multihomer game of his career. Over the last 30 days, he's put up a 5x5 line of .289/16/8/21/2, making him the #1-ranked fantasy catcher over that span. He's only owned in 40.5% of ESPN and 39% of Yahoo! leagues.
• Ichiro Suzuki had his second consecutive two-hit game. I think someone translated all of those "Is Ichiro done?" articles. I think the answer is no. Sure he's only hitting .258 but still on pace for 172 hits and 34 stolen bases. I'll take the over on batting average and hits at this point and under on stolen bases.
• Derek Jeter had two hits and is now at 2,993 for his career. You could do a lot worse at shortstop in fantasy baseball than the Yankee Captain. I'll be watching and cheering when 3,000 comes.
• Curtis Granderson went 4-for-4 and now has a season's 5x5 line of .279/54/20/47/10 making him the 5th-best fantasy baseball player this season. Not bad for a guy with an ADP of 91.6 in ESPN leagues.
• Jon Lester became the AL's first nine-game winner.
• Jose Bautista ended a 13-game homerless streak with his 21st of the season. He's still on pace for 52 home runs. Fluke? Nope.
• Dustin Pedroia (5), Adrian Gonzalez (13), Kevin Youkilis (9) and David Ortiz (17) all homered. The Red Sox offense has scored 30 runs in their last two games. I think it's safe to say they're firing on all cylinders.
• Kyle Drabek gave up eight earned runs in four innings and saw his ERA jump from 4.98 to 5.70 with a 1.79 WHIP. If he wasn't already unownable prior to this start, he definitely is now.
• Daniel Hudson won for the seventh time in eight decisions since starting the season 0-4. Congrats to all the owners who stuck with him or those who were able to grab him off waivers.
• Ryan Roberts hit his 10th home run of the season and second in two days. He also has nine stolen bases on the season and now on pace for a 25/22 season. He qualifies at 2B, 3B and even OF in some formats. This all screams MUST OWN to me.
• Ryan Madson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his 15th save in 16 chances. Brad Lidge who?
• Johnny Damon hit his 27th career leadoff home run and has reached base in a career-best 37 consecutive games. He's only owned in 54% of all Yahoo! leagues. Look past the name. His numbers (.279/30/8/33/7) are very ownable.
• Evan Longoria hit his first career inside-the-park home run. Discuss.
• J.P. Howell picked up his first save of the season. Kyle Farnsworth was not available because of the flu. Keep an eye on who gets the next handful of saves for the Rays.
• Jose Reyes had three hits, including a home run, and increased his batting average to a major league-leading .346. He's the sixth-ranked player in fantasy baseball and doing all he can to get a one-way ticket out of New York.
• Andrew McCutchen has an 11-game hitting streak in which he's hitting .488 (20/41) with 10 RBI.
• Tommy Hanson struck out a career-high 14 against the Astros to earn COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award (shameless plug). He improved to 3-0 with a 0.97 ERA in five career starts against the Houston.
• Dan Uggla broke out of a 7-for-76 slump by going 5-for-11 with a home run in last three games against Houston.
• Wandy Rodriguez was activated from the DL and scheduled to start today. Adjust your rosters accordingly.
• Prince Fielder hit 19th home run of the season, a 440 foot blast, and continues to lead the NL in RBI with 58. Enjoy it while you can, Brewers fans.
• John Axford converted his 15th straight save opportunity and 18th out of 20 overall.
• Philip Humber is 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last nine starts and is now owned in 59.6% of ESPN and 45% of Yahoo! leagues. Grab him off waivers if you're struggling in your pitching categories.
• Adam Dunn hit his second home run in four games. He's 3/12 (.250) with six RBI and three walks over that span. Sad to celebrate those numbers as a "good thing" but it is. And more of the bad: he's hitting .031 (1-for-47) against left-handed pitching this season.
• Francisco Liriano was six outs from his second no-hitter of the season. In his last 38 innings, he has a 1.89 ERA and allowed 17 hits and 17 walks. That's what fantasy owners wanted to see.
• Matt Kemp hit his NL-leading 20th home run and is the #1-ranked fantasy baseball player this season with his .331/45/20/56/14 line and on pace for a 48/34 season. There's the future MVP we've all been waiting to see.
• Pablo Sandoval was activated from the DL. Adjust your rosters accordingly.
• Brian Wilson converted his 18th save in 20 opportunities. His beard approves.

PHEW! That was a mouthful of information. I'll be sure to get started on those recaps earlier in the day to have them posted at a more favorable time. Regardless, please enjoy and feel free to comment or let me know how helpful this information would be if delivered earlier in the day after.

Line of the Day: May 29th, 2011

SP Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers allowed two hits and walked one while striking out 10 in an 8-0 victory over the Florida Marlins. It was Kershaw's second career complete game, both of which were shutouts.

Line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K; W, QS, CG, SHO

My fantasy perspective: Kershaw leads the majors with 87 strikeouts in 79 innings pitched for a career-best 9.91 K/9 ratio. He also has a career-low 2.73 BB/9 ratio. With nine quality starts in 12 games, Kershaw could easily have a better than 6-3 record on the season. Add in his 2.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and you can expect to see his name mentioned in the NL Cy Young Award conversation this offseason.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Be sure to check out the past winners of COSFBA's Line of the Day awards and subscribe to its feed, too.

Where Can I Find: Home Runs

If you're in a standard 5x5 Rotisserie league, you need to do all you can to not fall too far behind in any one category. A common belief is that you should shoot for no worse than fourth place in any category to keep yourself in the running to win your league.

With that in mind, here are some players that are available in a large percentage of ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues who could help you make up some ground in the Home Runs category. Be very aware, though, of the reasons why these players are sitting out there on waivers.

• OF Matt Joyce, TB has three home runs and is slugging .739 in May and now leads the AL in batting with a .356 average. ESPN owners are catching on as he's now owned in 72.1% of leagues but how is he still just 30% owned on Yahoo!? Make no assumptions. Check your waivers now to see if he's somehow available.
• C Jorge Posada, NYY is tied for the major league-lead in home runs (6) for catcher-eligible players. His .147 batting average (15/102) has everything to do with the fact that he's only owned in 42.5% of ESPN leagues and 63% of Yahoo! leagues (and dropping). At this point, he should only be owned in two-catcher leagues with 12 or more teams, as he's currently the 25th-ranked catcher on ESPN's Player Rater. But if you are desperate for home runs, he may be worth rostering and only playing on days when he has a history of success against opposing pitchers until he heats up. That's assuming he ever does.
• C Rod Barajas, LAD is also tied for the major league-lead in home runs (6) for catchers and gets the majority of starts for the Dodgers. His .236 batting average is going to do more damage than good to a competitive team, but he deserves to be owned in more than 1.9% of ESPN leagues and 9% of Yahoo! leagues. He's averaged 20 HR/162 games over his career. Spot starting verses a left-handed starter would be ideal. He's hitting .357 vs LHP compared to .192 vs RHP this season.
• OF Jonny Gomes, CIN has six home runs, 17 RBI, 18 runs scored and five stolen bases. Surely those numbers deserve to be owned in more than 31.9% of ESPN leagues and 34% of Yahoo! leagues, right? Wrong. His .192 batting average, 32.7 K% and a loss of playing time are why he's being dropped in huge chunks of leagues right now. He hit five of his six homers during a seven game span, so he may be worth picking up the next time he hits a home run and home he goes on a binge.
• OF Josh Willingham, OAK leads the A's in home runs (6) and RBI (22) but also in strikeouts (37). His .229 batting average is nothing to write home about, either. As long as the entire Oakland offense continues to struggle, his ownership numbers will remain low (10.5% ESPN; 16% Y!). On a positive note, he's still projecting to hit 20+ HR with 90+ RBI.
• 1B/OF Luke Scott, BAL is known to be a streaky home run hitter, so the time to grab him is when he's going through a dry spell. All six of his home runs this season came within a 16-game period (14 games played). His .263 average won't kill your team and he should be benched against LHP (2/23; .087 BA). Owned in 51.9% of ESPN leagues and just 39% of Yahoo! leagues, Scott could be the most widely available 30-HR potential player out there.
• 1B Mark Trumbo, LAA has a nice .270/14/6/17/2 line but was losing playing time to an overly crowded Angels' infield. Vernon Wells' injury has opened up some more opportunities to get Trumbo's bat into the lineup and he should continue to produce. At his current pace, he's projected to hit 26 HR for the season. His 16.5% ESPN and 16% Yahoo! ownership rates make him a widely available target, especially in leagues using a CI, IF or multiple DH/UTL roster positions.
• SS Alex Gonzalez, ATL is the 14th-ranked shortstop on ESPN's Player Rater, so I'm thinking his ownership numbers should be a bit higher than 41.8% on ESPN and 37% on Yahoo!, especially with a decent .252/20/5/16/0 from a thin shortstop position that's on pace to produce 22 HR, 70 RBI and 88 Runs.

Six weeks into the season may be time to start evaluating when to give up on some players. Swallow leaguers probably have the most flexibility to cut an under-performing player because they have the deepest waivers. Deep mixed or AL/NL Only leaguers have to be looking for incremental changes on a weekly basis to make up points. There's no time to sit back and continue to wait if you've fallen to the middle or the back of the pack. 

Playing the Name Game

We've all seen the fantasy baseball articles where the writer will compare one nameless player's statistics to another nameless player's statistics and then hit you with a ton of reasons why you should be looking past simple name recognition if you want to be winning your fantasy baseball league. And do you know why you see articles of this type all over the fantasy baseball blogosphere? Because they're very helpful when evaluating your roster and the "who's who" out there on waivers.

I'll run through a few of my own comparisons (using standard 5x5 categories) for your fantasy baseball viewing pleasure and hopefully give you something to mull over as you assess your roster(s).

• Player A: .321 BA (17/53), 15 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .255 BA (24/94), 15 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB

Simple comparisons show that Player A has only gotten roughly half the at-bats that Player B has received so far but has been able to score the same amount of runs, hit the same number of home runs and steal the same amount of bases, all with a higher batting average and just four less RBI. A deeper look into another statistic shows Player A has an .956 OPS while Player B's is .691. Any guesses yet? Well, Player A is Casey Blake and Player B is Martin Prado. Blake is owned in 12.4% of ESPN leagues and Prado is 100% owned, as he should be.

My fantasy perspective: Blake has settled in as the Dodgers' number two hitting and should get plenty of opportunities to continue scoring runs with the likes of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier tearing it up behind him, as long as he keeps getting on base. His value comes in deeper mixed leagues that utilize an extra CI and/or IF roster spot or in the much shallower NL-only format. Prado owners shouldn't be concerned.

• Player A: .282 BA (22/78), 11 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB
• Player B: .311 BA (28/90), 10 R, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB

Not a ton of difference here other than the fact that Player B hasn't shown the ability to hit a home run yet. A deeper look into their player profiles shows that Player A has walked 15 times compared to Player B's six times. Both players qualify at 2B, while Player B also qualifies at SS. Player B leads all 2B-eligible players with 28 hits this season. Any guesses? Player A is 100% owned Dustin Pedroia while Player B is 54.6% owned Ryan Theriot.

My fantasy perspective: Theriot is another of those players manager Tony LaRussa loves to pencil in at the top of his lineup card night after night. His value comes in the runs and stolen base categories while not hurting you in batting average (career .285 average). He won't help you much in home runs or RBI. His 2B/SS eligibility could help you in those deeper mixed leagues with an MI position or the shallow NL-only leagues. Pedroia owners should start to see even more benefits to their investment now that the Red Sox offense seems to be firing on all cylinders.

• Player A: 0-2, 26 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
• Player B: 3-2, 29 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

To start off, each of these pitchers have started five games this season and recorded four quality starts. Player A has allowed two runs or less in four starts and had his bullpen blow three chances for a win. Player B has allowed just one earned run and nine hits in his last three starts (20.2 innings pitched). Any guesses who these pitchers are yet? Player A is 100% owned Chris Carpenter while Player B is 39.1% owned Randy Wolf.

My fantasy perspective: Carpenter has been a tough luck recipient of a bullpen in flux but should benefit now that Mitchell Boggs has been named the closer and acting like one (3-for-3 in save opportunities). Wins aren't an easy stat to predict but he'll give you the the ERA, WHIP and K's we've come to expect from him. Wolf is in a groove and should be streamed, if not owned, for his next start against the Astros.

• Player A: .283 BA (28/99), 13 R, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB
• Player B: .216 BA (16/74), 10 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB

This is the classic case of owners drafting a player based on potential and hanging on to him longer than warranted. Player A was virtually undrafted while Player B cost owners an ADP of 67.7. So what's an owner to do when saddled with Player B, one that's cost them such a high pick? Sell low? Cut and run? There aren't many options for owners (such as myself) who thought this could be a bounce-back season for B.J. Upton other than to either keep running him out there and taking the good (5 SB) with the bad (.216 BA) or keeping him on the bench to limit the damage and hope he turns it around soon. Oh, Player A is Melky Cabrera and he's only 19.5% owned. Nothing sexy about throwing his name around fantasy baseball circles but he's currently playing with a renewed fire and has value in leagues using lots of outfield roster spots.

Doing exercises such as these regularly will help you not fall in love with a player's name recognition or your personal investment you have in him. And it is even easy to do if you're in a one-and-done league rather than a keeper or dynasty format. Just make wise decisions when it comes to the waiver wire because in no world am I suggesting you ever drop Upton to pick up Melky. But dropping Julio Borbon (.214/3/0/4/2) for Cabrera wouldn't be a difficult move to make at this point. Just be ready to do the opposite should Borbon turn things around.

What types of fantasy baseball articles are you finding most valuable to your teams on the web these days? Player projections? Injury updates? Waiver wire gems? Hot players being added or why others are being dropped? Let me know so I can continue to tailor the content COSFBA has to offer the competitive fantasy baseball player in this, just year two, of a site that continues to find its place in the blogosphere.

Fun With Player Projections

With three full weeks of games in the books to start the 2011 season, it's time to start looking at some of the statistics players are putting up and determining what's true or false about what we are seeing. ESPN Player Profile pages have a fun "projected" line worth looking at but have little value in truly projecting the season's outcomes with such as small sample size:

• SS Starlin Castro, CHC leads the majors with 35 hits in 21 games. At his current pace, he projects to collect 270 hits, breaking Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 record of 262. It's doubtful Castro gets anywhere near the record but if you wound up with him on your roster(s) rather than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, you're not in a position to complain.
• 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR is tied for the major league lead with seven home runs, has scored 19 runs and walked 19 times in just 18 games this season. At his current pace, he projects to hit 54 home runs (sound familiar?), score 147 runs and walk 147 times. None of these numbers put him in the stratosphere of "record-breaking" but they should be putting the talk of his 2010 simply being a fluke to rest.
• 1B Prince Fielder, MIL leads the majors with 22 RBI in his first 21 games this season. At his current pace, he'd drive in 170 runs in 162 games played. It's unlikely he'll keep up this pace but he could be back in line with his own 2009, when he drove in 141 runs in 162 games. Either way, his owners have to be pleased with his hot start to 2011.
• OF Sam Fuld, TB has an unlikely 27 hits and 10 stolen bases in 20 games this season. At his current pace, Fuld will accumulate 199 hits and 74 steals. Could 175 hits and 40 stolen bases be that unrealistic for a player that's proving he deserves every opportunity to be in the lineup?
• OF/DH Bobby Abreu,  may only be hitting .240 but he's tied for the major league lead with 19 walks for a robust .394 OBP. At his current pace, that walk rate would put him at 140 for the season. He has a career .400 OBP and has walked over 120 times in a season twice, so this pace isn't all that unheard of for the disciplined Abreu.
• OF Matt Kemp, LAD is doing all he can to make fantasy owners forget about his 2010 season by starting off 2011 with this insane 5x5 line: .402/16/5/17/8. At his current pace, he's looking at a season's ending line of .402/127/35/127/56 and a run at the Triple Crown. There's no way he hits anywhere near .400 but he looks like a man on a mission to go 40/40. If you passed on Kemp because you were burned by him in 2010, there's always 2012.
• OF Dexter Fowler, COL is unfortunately tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with 27 but has offset that with 14 walks and a .381 OBP. At his current pace, Fowler would strike out 208 times and walk 108.
• OF Juan Pierre, CHW is known for his stolen base prowess in fantasy baseball but he already has been caught stealing five times to go along with his five stolen bases. At his current pace, Pierre would be looking at 37 SB and 37 CS. Now, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get caught stealing that often but you may start wondering if he's losing a step at age 33. And without his speed, Pierre's not much of a fantasy option.
• SP Jered Weaver, LAA is 5-0 with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over his first five starts. At his current pace, Weaver projects to start 39 games and strike out 301 batters in 278.2 innings pitched. Those just aren't realistic numbers in today's game but if he keeps his current 9.6 K/9 and matches his innings pitched from 2010 (224.1), he'd probably wind up leading the majors in strikeouts again in 2011 with 241.
• CL Mariano Rivera, NYY has appeared in 11 of the Yankees first 18 games and saved seven of their 12 wins. At his current pace, Rivera would appear in 99 games and finish the season with 63 saves. He's only averaging 64.2 appearances over the last five seasons, so he should slow down once the rest of the Yankee pen settles into their roles. I'd bet Rivera's a lock for his usual 35-45 saves again this year.

The goal of this exercise is to point out not getting too crazy over such a small sample of statistics, positively or negatively. Proven stars will more than likely return to levels that proven stars are used to performing at, statistically speaking. Now, that doesn't mean a top player can't have a down year (see Matt Kemp's 2010) but at least give everyone more than 1/8th of the overall schedule to prove their values to your fantasy baseball roster(s).

Which players are you buying are for real and what numbers are you predicting for them that might surprise most? Which players are you afraid are going to have an off or down year and are ready to cut ties with (drop or trade)? Please use the comments section below to get the conversation started.