For those of you still checking in here periodically, be sure to pop over to MLB reports and check out my guest article at http://mlbreports.com/2011/11/11/mlb-guide-offseason/
Be sure to follow me at my new Twitter name, @DJAubain, for updates on the future of COSFBA 2.0.
Thanks,
Daniel
Showing posts with label Guest Writer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guest Writer. Show all posts
Friday, November 11, 2011
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Made-Up Statistic: The Super Start
Recently, I approached my friend and fellow blogger, William Tasker of The FlagrantFan, with an idea of how to make the seemingly-meaningless baseball statistic of the Quality Start into something, well, more meaningful. Using his love for the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool, the following article is what he came up with for COSFBA's first-ever Made-Up Statistic: The Super Start.
The statistics of baseball are like running your fingers over sandpaper. There is something tangible and pungent about the numbers. If you have read this writer's work before, you know that there is nothing this author enjoys more than playing around with those lovely statistics so easily found these days on this thing we call the Internet. The trouble with some of those statitics is that there are some stats that are simply meaningless. Someone at some time thought a particular statistic had some value and it became part of the baseball language. And then those statistics hang around whether they have value or not. What makes these meaningless statistics dangerous is that casual fans and even some solid baseball people think they still mean something.
Many writers have their own list of meaningless statistics. Many include Batting Average and Runs Batted In as meaningless. This writer struggles with those and still thinks there is some value there. For some, the Save is meaningless as is the Hold for set up guys. While this author thinks those statistics have some weakness, they are still a value to consider. For example, if your particular team doesn't have a guy that can close a game and your team keeps getting beat in the ninth inning, well, then you're going to think more of that stat aren't you?
This writer has a slightly askew way of considering the worth of a statistic. Take the number of games, appearances, etc., that are possible for that statistic to happen and if the percentage it does happen comes up too high, then it's meaningless. No statistic bears this out more than the Quality Start. In a "quality start", a pitcher has to pitch six full innings and give up three earned runs or less. First of all, any stat that rewards a player for an ERA higher than league average is flawed to begin with. And three earned runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA.
But again, for this writer, it comes down to how often it happens. For example, with the Quality Start, there have been 1,399 games played so far this season (before Sunday's action). Since each game features two starters, that means there have been a total of 2,798 possible chances for a quality game to be pitched. And before Sunday's action, there have been 1,551 Quality Starts. That means that the QS happens 55 percent of the time! How can any stat mean anything when it occurs that many times?
Justin Verlander has made 21 starts so far. Nineteen of them have been quality starts. While that may give his agent fuel for the contract wars, it becomes meaningless. So what we need is a statistic that does give some meaning to how many times a pitcher pitches a great game. Our definition has to occur a lot less frequently as a percentage to have some meaning.
We can't use "quality starts" as a name because it is already taken, and in this writer's mind, already tainted. Like all good statistics, we need initials that have a ring to it. A.C.E would be great, wouldn't it? But we can't get the letters to work. So what can we use? Let's go with something simple and call them Super Starts or SS for short.
The first thought was to move the innings up to seven instead of six. But that has still happened 895 times or 32 percent of the time. That's still a lot, right? So we have to make it more exclusive than that. COSFBA's founder, Daniel Aubain, wanted to add a Win to the mix to make the figure more cogent. While understanding that logic, there is still too much chance to a Win and too much still depends on what the rest of the team (and the other pitcher) does. We'd want something more in the pitcher's control.
Control? Okay, what if we make it seven innings, two runs or less and one walk or less? There have only been 130 of those. So that's a good candidate. The only problem is that it punishes guys who are effectively wild but still limit the other team often. Heck, even Carlos Zambrano has thrown four of these kinds of games. So we'll call this a no because of the Zambrano factor.
Perhaps there is a solution to this Super Start idea. Let's go with eight or more complete innings with one or less earned runs and two or less runs. Why the latter? Too many pitchers allow the extra base runners caused by an error to score. The Super Start not only gives the pitcher credit for the earned runs allowed, but also for the ability to limit the damage when his defense falters.
Okay, we have our stat. Does it pass the occurance test? It's only happened 216 times this season (before Sunday's action) in 2798 possible starts. That's only 7.7 percent of the time. That works.
So who would our leaders be? It's a good list:
Of all the instances a Super Start has occurred this season, the starting pitcher actually lost the game 18 times. But most of the time, if a pitcher pitches this well, he's going to win. Unless, of course, your last name is Fister, who is 0-1 in those four Super Starts.
If you want to know the pitchers with the most Super Starts for the past two years, that would be Felix Hernandez with 16 and Halladay and Lee tied with 15. The leader for the last ten years is Halladay with 70 followed by Sabathia with 49.
The leader for the last twenty-five years is Roger Clemens with 130 followed by Greg Maddux with 111. The leader for the last fifty years would be Tom Seaver with 175 followed by Gaylord Perry with 174. That's a surprise and impressive.
So what do you think? Does the Super Start work for you? Does it mean anything? Well, at least this writer knows that it means a heck of a lot more than a Quality Start, right?
Have an idea for a Made-Up Statistic you'd like us to explore in a future article? Email me directly at COSFBA@gmail.com with your idea or if you'd like to do the research yourself and present it in a guest posting opportunity on COSBFA.
Many writers have their own list of meaningless statistics. Many include Batting Average and Runs Batted In as meaningless. This writer struggles with those and still thinks there is some value there. For some, the Save is meaningless as is the Hold for set up guys. While this author thinks those statistics have some weakness, they are still a value to consider. For example, if your particular team doesn't have a guy that can close a game and your team keeps getting beat in the ninth inning, well, then you're going to think more of that stat aren't you?
This writer has a slightly askew way of considering the worth of a statistic. Take the number of games, appearances, etc., that are possible for that statistic to happen and if the percentage it does happen comes up too high, then it's meaningless. No statistic bears this out more than the Quality Start. In a "quality start", a pitcher has to pitch six full innings and give up three earned runs or less. First of all, any stat that rewards a player for an ERA higher than league average is flawed to begin with. And three earned runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA.
But again, for this writer, it comes down to how often it happens. For example, with the Quality Start, there have been 1,399 games played so far this season (before Sunday's action). Since each game features two starters, that means there have been a total of 2,798 possible chances for a quality game to be pitched. And before Sunday's action, there have been 1,551 Quality Starts. That means that the QS happens 55 percent of the time! How can any stat mean anything when it occurs that many times?
Justin Verlander has made 21 starts so far. Nineteen of them have been quality starts. While that may give his agent fuel for the contract wars, it becomes meaningless. So what we need is a statistic that does give some meaning to how many times a pitcher pitches a great game. Our definition has to occur a lot less frequently as a percentage to have some meaning.
We can't use "quality starts" as a name because it is already taken, and in this writer's mind, already tainted. Like all good statistics, we need initials that have a ring to it. A.C.E would be great, wouldn't it? But we can't get the letters to work. So what can we use? Let's go with something simple and call them Super Starts or SS for short.
The first thought was to move the innings up to seven instead of six. But that has still happened 895 times or 32 percent of the time. That's still a lot, right? So we have to make it more exclusive than that. COSFBA's founder, Daniel Aubain, wanted to add a Win to the mix to make the figure more cogent. While understanding that logic, there is still too much chance to a Win and too much still depends on what the rest of the team (and the other pitcher) does. We'd want something more in the pitcher's control.
Control? Okay, what if we make it seven innings, two runs or less and one walk or less? There have only been 130 of those. So that's a good candidate. The only problem is that it punishes guys who are effectively wild but still limit the other team often. Heck, even Carlos Zambrano has thrown four of these kinds of games. So we'll call this a no because of the Zambrano factor.
Perhaps there is a solution to this Super Start idea. Let's go with eight or more complete innings with one or less earned runs and two or less runs. Why the latter? Too many pitchers allow the extra base runners caused by an error to score. The Super Start not only gives the pitcher credit for the earned runs allowed, but also for the ability to limit the damage when his defense falters.
Okay, we have our stat. Does it pass the occurance test? It's only happened 216 times this season (before Sunday's action) in 2798 possible starts. That's only 7.7 percent of the time. That works.
So who would our leaders be? It's a good list:
- James Shields: 8
- Cliff Lee: 7
- Jered Weaver, Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, Cole Hamels: 6
- Kyle Lohse, Ian Kennedy: 5
- Jason Vargas, Derek Holland, Roy Halladay, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister: 4
Of all the instances a Super Start has occurred this season, the starting pitcher actually lost the game 18 times. But most of the time, if a pitcher pitches this well, he's going to win. Unless, of course, your last name is Fister, who is 0-1 in those four Super Starts.
If you want to know the pitchers with the most Super Starts for the past two years, that would be Felix Hernandez with 16 and Halladay and Lee tied with 15. The leader for the last ten years is Halladay with 70 followed by Sabathia with 49.
The leader for the last twenty-five years is Roger Clemens with 130 followed by Greg Maddux with 111. The leader for the last fifty years would be Tom Seaver with 175 followed by Gaylord Perry with 174. That's a surprise and impressive.
So what do you think? Does the Super Start work for you? Does it mean anything? Well, at least this writer knows that it means a heck of a lot more than a Quality Start, right?
Have an idea for a Made-Up Statistic you'd like us to explore in a future article? Email me directly at COSFBA@gmail.com with your idea or if you'd like to do the research yourself and present it in a guest posting opportunity on COSBFA.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
The Joys of Deeper Leagues
I recently reached out to fantasy baseball veteran Mike Gianella (bio) of Roto Think Tank for his perspective on "league-only leagues" versus "mixed leagues" and the following are some things to consider when deciding which format is right for you. Mike should also be followed by you on Twitter @MikeGianella. Enjoy his viewpoint.
2010 marked my 24th year playing fantasy baseball but it was the first time I was invited to play in a mixed league. I had won a CBS expert A.L.-only league so was asked to participate in the now-defunct CBS League of Champions. Toward the end of the online draft, I happened to mention to the league’s commissioner that this was my first time playing in a mixed league. Based on his reaction, you would think that I had told him that baseball itself sucks.
When people ask me why I prefer N.L. or A.L.-only leagues to mixed leagues, I have a lot of different answers. But if I’m honest about it, the real reason I play N.L. and A.L.-only is that when I started playing mixed leagues was practically unheard of.
I discovered Rotisserie League Baseball in the 1980s the way a lot of people did: by stumbling onto the original book at my local bookstore. Instantly, I became enamored with the concept. How could I not? Strat-O-Matic was one thing, but there was a game where the statistics of live baseball games counted? This sounded like the greatest thing ever to a 16-year-old kid who loved baseball and gaming.
The Rotisserie League Baseball book painted such a negative picture of mixed leagues that I was perfectly happy to start out doing N.L.-only. By the time mixed leagues were in fashion in the mid-to-late-1990s, I was happily in playing in one A.L.-only league and N.L.-only league and was fine with that.
I used to waste a lot of time flogging people for playing in mixed leagues. As I’ve gotten older and (hopefully) wiser I take more of a live-and-let-live approach. I can also see some of the advantages of mixed leagues, as well as some of the different challenges they present.
But if someone new to fantasy baseball asked for my opinion, I’d definitely try to sell him on the advantages of a deep N.L. or A.L.-only league. Here’s why:
It’s a great way to learn (even more) about the game you love: It’s difficult to argue with the entertainment value of a 23-player line-up where all of the hitters are starters and all of the pitchers are #3 starters or better or closers. When I started playing Rotisserie-style baseball I had to not only figure out which starting second basemen were better but also which back-ups were better and which ones might wind up starting in the Major Leagues over the guys ahead of them on the team. By the end of my first season, I went from thinking that I knew everything there was to know about baseball to realizing that there was plenty to learn about the game and how it worked.
Your talent evaluation skills are truly tested: In one-league leagues, you’ve got to make a call early and live or die with it. Erik Bedard is a great example. Sure, it’s apparent in mid-June to anyone with a pulse that he should be on your team. But in an A.L.-only you had to either take the plunge in April or not own Erik Bedard in 2011. Then you had to decide whether or not his terrible start was worth suffering through or if you should cut bait. Having the option to wait on Bedard is probably easier on the stomach, but I like these types of challenges and truly testing my baseball acumen.
Rosters more closely resemble the real thing: I’m not going to get on my soapbox and try to make a rational argument that owning Humberto Quintero is exciting. But while I don’t like owning Quintero, I do enjoy having to make tough choices about my team. Do I want to focus on power hitters or guys with speed? Do I want to try and grab a couple of ace starters or get a top flight closer and hope to pull and pray with my rotation? Real teams with budgetary constrains make decisions like this all the time. I also have to carry bench players and middle relievers, just like real Major League teams. And just like real MLB teams do, I have to choose wisely or my team will fail.
One-league leagues are better suited to keeper/auction leagues: If you like drafts and starting over every year then this argument doesn’t play, but I prefer keeper leagues and auctions. I like having the opportunity to keep players for a few years before I lose them to the free agent pool and like the complexity salaries and contracts add to this dynamic. I’ve seen mixed league keeper leagues with auction formats but they are few and far between.
If you do insist on playing in a mixed league, I would recommend playing in a 14 or 15-team league so that you at least have some of the challenges I’ve outlined above. 12-team mixed leagues start to resemble All-Star leagues; 10-team mixed leagues or fewer are probably fun for some but conceptually don’t seem competitive to me. In the end, though, you have to do what’s fun for you, not me. I love deep league formats. But I understand that while I find them exciting, you might not. Whatever format or type of league you play in, make sure it’s fun for you.
2010 marked my 24th year playing fantasy baseball but it was the first time I was invited to play in a mixed league. I had won a CBS expert A.L.-only league so was asked to participate in the now-defunct CBS League of Champions. Toward the end of the online draft, I happened to mention to the league’s commissioner that this was my first time playing in a mixed league. Based on his reaction, you would think that I had told him that baseball itself sucks.
When people ask me why I prefer N.L. or A.L.-only leagues to mixed leagues, I have a lot of different answers. But if I’m honest about it, the real reason I play N.L. and A.L.-only is that when I started playing mixed leagues was practically unheard of.
I discovered Rotisserie League Baseball in the 1980s the way a lot of people did: by stumbling onto the original book at my local bookstore. Instantly, I became enamored with the concept. How could I not? Strat-O-Matic was one thing, but there was a game where the statistics of live baseball games counted? This sounded like the greatest thing ever to a 16-year-old kid who loved baseball and gaming.
The Rotisserie League Baseball book painted such a negative picture of mixed leagues that I was perfectly happy to start out doing N.L.-only. By the time mixed leagues were in fashion in the mid-to-late-1990s, I was happily in playing in one A.L.-only league and N.L.-only league and was fine with that.
I used to waste a lot of time flogging people for playing in mixed leagues. As I’ve gotten older and (hopefully) wiser I take more of a live-and-let-live approach. I can also see some of the advantages of mixed leagues, as well as some of the different challenges they present.
But if someone new to fantasy baseball asked for my opinion, I’d definitely try to sell him on the advantages of a deep N.L. or A.L.-only league. Here’s why:
It’s a great way to learn (even more) about the game you love: It’s difficult to argue with the entertainment value of a 23-player line-up where all of the hitters are starters and all of the pitchers are #3 starters or better or closers. When I started playing Rotisserie-style baseball I had to not only figure out which starting second basemen were better but also which back-ups were better and which ones might wind up starting in the Major Leagues over the guys ahead of them on the team. By the end of my first season, I went from thinking that I knew everything there was to know about baseball to realizing that there was plenty to learn about the game and how it worked.
Your talent evaluation skills are truly tested: In one-league leagues, you’ve got to make a call early and live or die with it. Erik Bedard is a great example. Sure, it’s apparent in mid-June to anyone with a pulse that he should be on your team. But in an A.L.-only you had to either take the plunge in April or not own Erik Bedard in 2011. Then you had to decide whether or not his terrible start was worth suffering through or if you should cut bait. Having the option to wait on Bedard is probably easier on the stomach, but I like these types of challenges and truly testing my baseball acumen.
Rosters more closely resemble the real thing: I’m not going to get on my soapbox and try to make a rational argument that owning Humberto Quintero is exciting. But while I don’t like owning Quintero, I do enjoy having to make tough choices about my team. Do I want to focus on power hitters or guys with speed? Do I want to try and grab a couple of ace starters or get a top flight closer and hope to pull and pray with my rotation? Real teams with budgetary constrains make decisions like this all the time. I also have to carry bench players and middle relievers, just like real Major League teams. And just like real MLB teams do, I have to choose wisely or my team will fail.
One-league leagues are better suited to keeper/auction leagues: If you like drafts and starting over every year then this argument doesn’t play, but I prefer keeper leagues and auctions. I like having the opportunity to keep players for a few years before I lose them to the free agent pool and like the complexity salaries and contracts add to this dynamic. I’ve seen mixed league keeper leagues with auction formats but they are few and far between.
If you do insist on playing in a mixed league, I would recommend playing in a 14 or 15-team league so that you at least have some of the challenges I’ve outlined above. 12-team mixed leagues start to resemble All-Star leagues; 10-team mixed leagues or fewer are probably fun for some but conceptually don’t seem competitive to me. In the end, though, you have to do what’s fun for you, not me. I love deep league formats. But I understand that while I find them exciting, you might not. Whatever format or type of league you play in, make sure it’s fun for you.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Legendary Battle: Sam Fuld versus Jed Lowrie
These days, if you're a fan of Major League Baseball and follow anyone on Twitter blogging about baseball, then you're surely aware of a legendary battle taking place amongst the hashtags.
First out of the gates was the #LegendofSamFuld, dedicated to Tampa Bay Rays' outfielder Sam Fuld as he burst onto the baseball scene as a result of the Manny Ramirez retirement fiasco. A recent 12-game stretch of Fuld's produced these eye-opening stats: .420 BA (21/50), 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 7 SB, 3 BB, 3 K along with many defensive gems and a string of "legends" the likes that haven't been seen since Chuck Norris. Here's a sample of a few gems:
While the Sam Fuld legend was growing, a new legend was being birthed in Boston for their own cult hero, Jed Lowrie, with the #LegendofJedLowrie hashtag. Lowrie is in the midst of his own eye-popping offensive assault over his last nine games: .531 BA (17/32), 2 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB, 1 BB, 5 K, spurring legends such as these:
Michael Clair (@clairbearattack) of Old Time Family Baseball weighed in with:
There hasn't been a more fun story in baseball than the emergence of Sam Fuld. Fuld, a career fringe Major Leaguer, diabetic, and player who grew up obsessing over statistics, is the patron saint of the superfan. He's like us, only phenomenally gifted at playing baseball.
While his .344/.379/.525 start has been exciting and proof that he has is deserving of more Major League than given in previous years, it's not time to anoint him a fantasy god. Fuld doesn't offer enough power for a corner outfielder, having never topped six home runs in a minor league season, and his career .777 minor league OPS doesn't offer much hope either. He has an excellent batting eye, so if your fantasy league uses OBP instead of batting average, he's an great pick up. Fuld is a #Legend because he's a great guy who followed a unique career path and doesn't embarrass himself with extended playing time, something that is still a rarity. If anyone can prove me wrong though, it's Fuld.
Jed Lowrie, currently doing his best Troy Tulowitzki impression, is a different story. Three years ago Lowrie looked like the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox, hitting .258 with 25 doubles as a 24 year-old rookie and his offensive future was bright. At 27, Lowrie is just now entering his prime and with a few more good weeks, he should wrestle the starting job away from Marco Scutaro. If Francona can get him enough at-bats, and considering his home ballpark, Lowrie is a good bet to hit at least .275 with 15 or so home runs. How many shortstops managed to do both last season? Four. Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Alexei Ramirez, and Stephen Drew, with Miguel Tejada just missing the cut.
Rob Munstis (@bottomlinesox) of The Bottom Line weighed in with:
The legend of Jed Lowrie began in 2007. He tore through Double A and Triple A like Pecos Bill riding a tornado, hitting a combined .298 that year, while smashing 47 doubles, 8 triples and 13 homers while playing all over the infield. In 2008, he earned a spot on the big league roster and the Red Sox rode his bat through August, while Jed hit .284 with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer and 24 RBI in 102 at-bats.
It seemed Jed was desitined for greateness, but injuries and illness plagued the mighty Jed in 2009 and 2010... and whispers of a new "shortstop of the future" with "magic hands" began to spread through New England.
Jed returned to the field in 2011 and quietly made the team as the utility infielder, ready to wait his turn. But with the Red Sox floundering to an 0-5 start, the need for a hero grew, and Jed was ready. After a battle with the hated Yankees, Lowrie exploded onto the scene, starting 6 of the next 8 games and leading the offense with his Paul Bunyan-like lumber - hitting .465 with an 1.115 OPS, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 9 runs and 11 RBI, while players with bigger and much bigger contracts struggled to keep up.
Bottom Line: All joking aside, Lowrie is on a roll right now, and has more talent and power than Marco Scutaro. The Sox will create ways to squeeze him into the lineup, but he may struggle to log 400+ at-bats as long as Scutaro remains in Boston. Ride the wave and sell high when you can.
Kyle Phillippi (@PiratesGab) of Pirates Gab weighed in with:
Heroes come and go, but legends stay forever. A recent surge on Twitter has dubbed Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie 'legends.' But wait? They seem a bit young to be legends already, to be compared to the likes of Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols. In my opinion, none are legends right now, but down the road, I could see Sam Fuld being the legend. As of Thursday night, Fuld was batting .344 with a .380 OBP. That's quite impressive for anyone, let alone a three-year player.
My favorite Sam Fuld tweet: Sam Fuld can steal first base.
Jonathan C. Mitchell (@FigureFilbert) of MLB Dirt weighed in with:
Player A - .284/.372/.401 with a 112 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in 115 games.
Player B - .267/.345/.446 with a 108 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR and 4.1 rWAR in 182 games.
Player A - 11.9% Walk rate and 12.2% Strikeout rate and 5.9 Speed Score.
Player B – 10.9% Walk rate and 21.7% Strikeout rate and 3.3 Speed Score.
Player A - Can play all three outfield positions and is 29 years old.
Player B - Can play all four infield positions and is 27 years old.
Both “Legends” have struggled in small sample sizes and both have flourished in small sample sizes. Neither has enough experience to paint a perfect picture of which “Legend” will continue to perform at a high level of play.
Both Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie have the ability to be contributing factors to any team. Fuld could be most team’s starting centerfielder and is a major fan favorite. I had the pleasure of talking to him last night about his “Legendary” status and he is enjoying the ride and thanking the fans along the way by signing autographs for a minimum of 20 minutes before each game. I mean, this is a guy that eats Chick-Fil-A on Sundays and had April 11th renamed April Fuld’s Day in his honor. But, due to his position, age, Fan Nation, and better minor league track record, Lowrie is more likely to be an All-Star and carry the legend on for seasons to come.
From my fantasy perspective: I think Sam Fuld has the longer leash on job stability this season since the Rays are in a transition year, of sorts, and that could allow him to get 600 at-bats to prove whether or not he's in their long term plans. Is a .300+ batting average with 30+ steals really that far-fetched? That's better than what Brett Gardner will put up this season.
Jed Lowrie probably has more fantasy upside, as long as he remains in the mix for at-bats. He already qualifies at 2B/SS and could be working towards some more time at 3B if the Kevin Youkilis injury is serious. He has more HR/RBI upside and could score as many runs as Fuld in a Red Sox lineup that will eventually start running on all cylinders.
As far as #Legend's go, I think the #LegendofSamFuld has more staying power. One, it comes from a place of true fandom for a player that is the epitome of gritty. And two, it's the original. Unfortunately the folks driving the #LegendofJedLowrie have taken to attacks against Fuld rather than simply promoting all that they love about their hometown hero. And that act tends to get old.
First out of the gates was the #LegendofSamFuld, dedicated to Tampa Bay Rays' outfielder Sam Fuld as he burst onto the baseball scene as a result of the Manny Ramirez retirement fiasco. A recent 12-game stretch of Fuld's produced these eye-opening stats: .420 BA (21/50), 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 7 SB, 3 BB, 3 K along with many defensive gems and a string of "legends" the likes that haven't been seen since Chuck Norris. Here's a sample of a few gems:
- Sam Fuld eats Chick-Fil-A on Sundays.
- Superman wears Sam Fuld pajamas.
- Sam Fuld can divide by zero.
- Honus Wagner bought a Sam Fuld rookie card at auction.
While the Sam Fuld legend was growing, a new legend was being birthed in Boston for their own cult hero, Jed Lowrie, with the #LegendofJedLowrie hashtag. Lowrie is in the midst of his own eye-popping offensive assault over his last nine games: .531 BA (17/32), 2 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB, 1 BB, 5 K, spurring legends such as these:
- Jed Lowrie doesn't have a shadow.
- Unicorns drink Jed Lowrie's blood to stay hidden and magical.
- Harry Caray has decided to come back to announce a game with
Jed Lowrie playing.
Michael Clair (@clairbearattack) of Old Time Family Baseball weighed in with:
There hasn't been a more fun story in baseball than the emergence of Sam Fuld. Fuld, a career fringe Major Leaguer, diabetic, and player who grew up obsessing over statistics, is the patron saint of the superfan. He's like us, only phenomenally gifted at playing baseball.
While his .344/.379/.525 start has been exciting and proof that he has is deserving of more Major League than given in previous years, it's not time to anoint him a fantasy god. Fuld doesn't offer enough power for a corner outfielder, having never topped six home runs in a minor league season, and his career .777 minor league OPS doesn't offer much hope either. He has an excellent batting eye, so if your fantasy league uses OBP instead of batting average, he's an great pick up. Fuld is a #Legend because he's a great guy who followed a unique career path and doesn't embarrass himself with extended playing time, something that is still a rarity. If anyone can prove me wrong though, it's Fuld.
Jed Lowrie, currently doing his best Troy Tulowitzki impression, is a different story. Three years ago Lowrie looked like the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox, hitting .258 with 25 doubles as a 24 year-old rookie and his offensive future was bright. At 27, Lowrie is just now entering his prime and with a few more good weeks, he should wrestle the starting job away from Marco Scutaro. If Francona can get him enough at-bats, and considering his home ballpark, Lowrie is a good bet to hit at least .275 with 15 or so home runs. How many shortstops managed to do both last season? Four. Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Alexei Ramirez, and Stephen Drew, with Miguel Tejada just missing the cut.
Rob Munstis (@bottomlinesox) of The Bottom Line weighed in with:
The legend of Jed Lowrie began in 2007. He tore through Double A and Triple A like Pecos Bill riding a tornado, hitting a combined .298 that year, while smashing 47 doubles, 8 triples and 13 homers while playing all over the infield. In 2008, he earned a spot on the big league roster and the Red Sox rode his bat through August, while Jed hit .284 with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer and 24 RBI in 102 at-bats.
It seemed Jed was desitined for greateness, but injuries and illness plagued the mighty Jed in 2009 and 2010... and whispers of a new "shortstop of the future" with "magic hands" began to spread through New England.
Jed returned to the field in 2011 and quietly made the team as the utility infielder, ready to wait his turn. But with the Red Sox floundering to an 0-5 start, the need for a hero grew, and Jed was ready. After a battle with the hated Yankees, Lowrie exploded onto the scene, starting 6 of the next 8 games and leading the offense with his Paul Bunyan-like lumber - hitting .465 with an 1.115 OPS, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 9 runs and 11 RBI, while players with bigger and much bigger contracts struggled to keep up.
Bottom Line: All joking aside, Lowrie is on a roll right now, and has more talent and power than Marco Scutaro. The Sox will create ways to squeeze him into the lineup, but he may struggle to log 400+ at-bats as long as Scutaro remains in Boston. Ride the wave and sell high when you can.
Kyle Phillippi (@PiratesGab) of Pirates Gab weighed in with:
Heroes come and go, but legends stay forever. A recent surge on Twitter has dubbed Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie 'legends.' But wait? They seem a bit young to be legends already, to be compared to the likes of Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols. In my opinion, none are legends right now, but down the road, I could see Sam Fuld being the legend. As of Thursday night, Fuld was batting .344 with a .380 OBP. That's quite impressive for anyone, let alone a three-year player.
My favorite Sam Fuld tweet: Sam Fuld can steal first base.
Jonathan C. Mitchell (@FigureFilbert) of MLB Dirt weighed in with:
Player A - .284/.372/.401 with a 112 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in 115 games.
Player B - .267/.345/.446 with a 108 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR and 4.1 rWAR in 182 games.
Player A - 11.9% Walk rate and 12.2% Strikeout rate and 5.9 Speed Score.
Player B – 10.9% Walk rate and 21.7% Strikeout rate and 3.3 Speed Score.
Player A - Can play all three outfield positions and is 29 years old.
Player B - Can play all four infield positions and is 27 years old.
Both “Legends” have struggled in small sample sizes and both have flourished in small sample sizes. Neither has enough experience to paint a perfect picture of which “Legend” will continue to perform at a high level of play.
Both Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie have the ability to be contributing factors to any team. Fuld could be most team’s starting centerfielder and is a major fan favorite. I had the pleasure of talking to him last night about his “Legendary” status and he is enjoying the ride and thanking the fans along the way by signing autographs for a minimum of 20 minutes before each game. I mean, this is a guy that eats Chick-Fil-A on Sundays and had April 11th renamed April Fuld’s Day in his honor. But, due to his position, age, Fan Nation, and better minor league track record, Lowrie is more likely to be an All-Star and carry the legend on for seasons to come.
From my fantasy perspective: I think Sam Fuld has the longer leash on job stability this season since the Rays are in a transition year, of sorts, and that could allow him to get 600 at-bats to prove whether or not he's in their long term plans. Is a .300+ batting average with 30+ steals really that far-fetched? That's better than what Brett Gardner will put up this season.
Jed Lowrie probably has more fantasy upside, as long as he remains in the mix for at-bats. He already qualifies at 2B/SS and could be working towards some more time at 3B if the Kevin Youkilis injury is serious. He has more HR/RBI upside and could score as many runs as Fuld in a Red Sox lineup that will eventually start running on all cylinders.
As far as #Legend's go, I think the #LegendofSamFuld has more staying power. One, it comes from a place of true fandom for a player that is the epitome of gritty. And two, it's the original. Unfortunately the folks driving the #LegendofJedLowrie have taken to attacks against Fuld rather than simply promoting all that they love about their hometown hero. And that act tends to get old.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
COSFBA League Member Blogs About His Draft Experience
While recruiting members for the three COSFBA-sponsored fantasy baseball leagues I decided to run this year, I looked to Twitter and baseball blogs (large and small) for participants. Once someone agreed to join, I offered them the opportunity to blog about their experiences within the leagues. John Venrick joined the COSFBA Blog/Twitter League III and decided to write an article about his draft. John is on Twitter and has his own personal blog. Enjoy!
I was recently invited to a league by the author of this website, and I jumped at the opportunity, thinking that regardless of how the league went, it would be nice to make tangible connections in the community. I have in the past made comments about preferring roto leagues to head to head leagues, but I do like the head to head leagues like this where categories are scored, and it allows for playoffs if you are into that. It would be nice to say that I looked for consistency given the weekly matchups, but I think that tends to be something of a crapshoot.
It's a 10x10 league with OPS, XBH, RC, BB, and TB as extra batting categories and on the pitching side we lose K's but gain K/9, K/BB, BAA, QS, OBA, and HD. On the batting side of things, I thought that there was greater value in power (though I did still try to compete in steals), and as the pitching goes I tried to get high K guys and focus more on Holds than Saves as I think people tend to forget they have equal value in a league that scores both (plus your hold guys might get you the occasional save here or there). Before I dive in to the nuts and bolts of the draft itself, one last thing I would say is that I was impressed about the turnout given that it is an online draft. I don't remember what teams were on autodraft, so that won't make it into my analysis.
Round: 1
(1) BEONDECK Tweets - Albert Pujols 1B
(2) MLB Dirt - Hanley Ramirez SS
(3) Team E - Evan Longoria 3B
(4) Generic generics - Robinson Cano 2B
(5) Fantasy Farm System - Carl Crawford LF
(6) The Outfield Grass - Adrian Gonzalez 1B
(7) COSFBA NitTwits - Ryan Braun LF
(8) Jim Joyce's Eyes - Joey Votto 1B
(9) Team Kranepool Socie - Troy Tulowitzki SS
(10) Fire Eric Bruntlett - Miguel Cabrera 1B
(11) NY VENOM - Jose Reyes SS
(12) Double G Sports - Carlos Gonzalez LF
(13) Juuuust A Bit Outside - Roy Halladay SP
(14) Team DeSando - Josh Hamilton CF
*****
My thinking here was that there would be plenty of opportunities to grab an outfielder, but second base is not very deep, and really my thinking was that I was hoping to grab Evan Longoria. I was surprised to see Votto go ahead of Cabrera, though I might have made that call as well. I hate the Reyes pick. He won't be on any of my teams, and he certainly wouldn't be my first pick. I don't know if I would have taken Cano in a 10 team league, as Pedroia would likely be available in round 3 of a league that size, but I was not confident of such here.
It's a 10x10 league with OPS, XBH, RC, BB, and TB as extra batting categories and on the pitching side we lose K's but gain K/9, K/BB, BAA, QS, OBA, and HD. On the batting side of things, I thought that there was greater value in power (though I did still try to compete in steals), and as the pitching goes I tried to get high K guys and focus more on Holds than Saves as I think people tend to forget they have equal value in a league that scores both (plus your hold guys might get you the occasional save here or there). Before I dive in to the nuts and bolts of the draft itself, one last thing I would say is that I was impressed about the turnout given that it is an online draft. I don't remember what teams were on autodraft, so that won't make it into my analysis.
Round: 1
(1) BEONDECK Tweets - Albert Pujols 1B
(2) MLB Dirt - Hanley Ramirez SS
(3) Team E - Evan Longoria 3B
(4) Generic generics - Robinson Cano 2B
(5) Fantasy Farm System - Carl Crawford LF
(6) The Outfield Grass - Adrian Gonzalez 1B
(7) COSFBA NitTwits - Ryan Braun LF
(8) Jim Joyce's Eyes - Joey Votto 1B
(9) Team Kranepool Socie - Troy Tulowitzki SS
(10) Fire Eric Bruntlett - Miguel Cabrera 1B
(11) NY VENOM - Jose Reyes SS
(12) Double G Sports - Carlos Gonzalez LF
(13) Juuuust A Bit Outside - Roy Halladay SP
(14) Team DeSando - Josh Hamilton CF
*****
My thinking here was that there would be plenty of opportunities to grab an outfielder, but second base is not very deep, and really my thinking was that I was hoping to grab Evan Longoria. I was surprised to see Votto go ahead of Cabrera, though I might have made that call as well. I hate the Reyes pick. He won't be on any of my teams, and he certainly wouldn't be my first pick. I don't know if I would have taken Cano in a 10 team league, as Pedroia would likely be available in round 3 of a league that size, but I was not confident of such here.
Friday, March 25, 2011
2011 Starting Pitcher Sleepers
(In my continued effort to bring additional voices and perspectives to COSFBA, this article is being brought to you by guest writer KJ Hanna. KJ was one of the first people I connected with on Twitter and actually lives in the same part of Brooklyn, NY where I grew up. He's had his fantasy baseball work featured on both FantasyBaseball101.com and BigTroph.com. I hope you find as much value in his contribution to this site as I do.)
Ahh, the dreaded word ALL fantasy experts and drafters love and hate…SLEEPER. Another word equally as poisonous… BOUNCEBACK. The great thing about the fantastic sport of baseball is there will always be players who fall into one or both of these categories. Luckily for you, the owner, we have already crunched the numbers and taken out most of the guess work.
You’ve all heard this already but, starting pitching is deep this year and you shouldn’t reach early for a SP early. That is, unless your league’s scoring settings heavily rewards SPs or you’re in a keeper/dynasty league. That being said, it’s in my opinion that you make your move in the middle to late rounds for pitchers and these are a few you should target.
The objective to identifying a sleeper starting pitcher is to determine which players have the upside to outperform their current draft position and provide your fantasy team with an advantage over the rest of your league at a low cost/draft pick.
AL SP Sleepers
Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
Hellickson, the Rays stud prospect du jour got a huge boost once Matt Garza was traded to the Cubs in the offseason. He now has the chance to build upon his impressive numbers when called up in 2010, 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 33 strikeouts and eight walks in 31 1/3 innings.
Notably revered to be more of a control pitcher, Hellickson is deceiving in his assortment of pitches and has the potential to become an ace, however, expect peaks and valleys, especially as he gets more acquainted with the AL East mashers.
Beyond the occasional long ball and a few rookie hiccups, the only negative I can see with “Hell Boy” is that the Rays may shut him down early, limiting his innings. In that case, all formats should feel confident in grabing him in mid-late rds and sell high come July (except in Keeper/Dynasty leagues).
Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
I know, most of you are thinking, "Scherzer, a sleeper?". That’s right readers! After an awful start to 2010 (7.29 ERA in April and half of May) and a minor league demotion, Scherzer came back to the majors with a blazing fastball and an appetite for strikeouts.
In Scherzer’s return to the majors, he posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 158 strikeouts and FINALLY showed his potential and quieted the “bust” whispers. Scherzer has the talent to become an elite fantasy starter and should be on everyone’s radar in all league formats in mid rounds on draft day. Draft with confidence.
Edwin Jackson – Chicago White Sox
EJax is an enigma. Is he an Ace or a tease? After moving to the AL, Jackson put together some fantastic strikeout and walk numbers which was a great sign of things to hopefully come. Jackson’s K/9 with the Dbacks was 6.98, with the White Sox 9.24! Not only did his K/BB improve but his fastball launched from 94 MPH to 95.3 MPH AND he lowered his overall ERA by almost 2 runs!
Jax is going late enough to take a risk/reward approach with him. His skills are pointing the way to a very productive season with plenty of run support from a stacked White Sox lineup. Grab him in the late rounds and reap the benefits in all league formats.
Ahh, the dreaded word ALL fantasy experts and drafters love and hate…SLEEPER. Another word equally as poisonous… BOUNCEBACK. The great thing about the fantastic sport of baseball is there will always be players who fall into one or both of these categories. Luckily for you, the owner, we have already crunched the numbers and taken out most of the guess work.
You’ve all heard this already but, starting pitching is deep this year and you shouldn’t reach early for a SP early. That is, unless your league’s scoring settings heavily rewards SPs or you’re in a keeper/dynasty league. That being said, it’s in my opinion that you make your move in the middle to late rounds for pitchers and these are a few you should target.
The objective to identifying a sleeper starting pitcher is to determine which players have the upside to outperform their current draft position and provide your fantasy team with an advantage over the rest of your league at a low cost/draft pick.
AL SP Sleepers
Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
Hellickson, the Rays stud prospect du jour got a huge boost once Matt Garza was traded to the Cubs in the offseason. He now has the chance to build upon his impressive numbers when called up in 2010, 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 33 strikeouts and eight walks in 31 1/3 innings.
Notably revered to be more of a control pitcher, Hellickson is deceiving in his assortment of pitches and has the potential to become an ace, however, expect peaks and valleys, especially as he gets more acquainted with the AL East mashers.
Beyond the occasional long ball and a few rookie hiccups, the only negative I can see with “Hell Boy” is that the Rays may shut him down early, limiting his innings. In that case, all formats should feel confident in grabing him in mid-late rds and sell high come July (except in Keeper/Dynasty leagues).
Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
I know, most of you are thinking, "Scherzer, a sleeper?". That’s right readers! After an awful start to 2010 (7.29 ERA in April and half of May) and a minor league demotion, Scherzer came back to the majors with a blazing fastball and an appetite for strikeouts.
In Scherzer’s return to the majors, he posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 158 strikeouts and FINALLY showed his potential and quieted the “bust” whispers. Scherzer has the talent to become an elite fantasy starter and should be on everyone’s radar in all league formats in mid rounds on draft day. Draft with confidence.
Edwin Jackson – Chicago White Sox
EJax is an enigma. Is he an Ace or a tease? After moving to the AL, Jackson put together some fantastic strikeout and walk numbers which was a great sign of things to hopefully come. Jackson’s K/9 with the Dbacks was 6.98, with the White Sox 9.24! Not only did his K/BB improve but his fastball launched from 94 MPH to 95.3 MPH AND he lowered his overall ERA by almost 2 runs!
Jax is going late enough to take a risk/reward approach with him. His skills are pointing the way to a very productive season with plenty of run support from a stacked White Sox lineup. Grab him in the late rounds and reap the benefits in all league formats.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Why I Had To Quit Fantasy Baseball
(In my efforts to bring additional voices and perspectives to fantasy baseball on COSFBA, I present to you another guest writer. This article was written by William J. Tasker of The Flagrant Fan and gives a unique perspective on his struggles of being a baseball fan and a fantasy baseball player.)
I envy you folks that can still play fantasy sports. Growing up with an advanced love of baseball statistics, playing fantasy baseball was the bomb. It was also the natural progression from growing up with Strat-O-Matic baseball, a game that reached its fiftieth anniversary this season. Pouring over the statistics every day along with the box scores fit right in with my lifestyle and that’s what made fantasy baseball very exciting and a passion. It was fun to compete against friends and also anonymous people on the Net and the victories made me feel like a genius. Of course, the losses were always blamed on luck.
But a funny thing happened. I noticed that I was developing a mental disorder the more I played the fantasy game. I’ll have to admit that I am a lifelong Yankee fan. Before you hate me for that, my love for the team began in the 1960s when the team was absolutely terrible. So I was a Fan even before they became the Evil Empire. When I root for a team, it goes down to the roots of my being. In essence, a part of my life force is wrapped up in my desire for the team to win. Being a Fan of any team has its shares of heartbreak. No team is going to win all the time and failure is built into the system. Even the best teams are going to lose 35% of the time. Now add to this passion the element of fantasy baseball.
Here is how the mental problems came about. Say my fantasy team included Miguel Cabrera and his Tigers were playing my Yankees. But Cabrera is a big dog on my fantasy team and earns me a lot of points. Say the Yankees are fighting the Red Sox or the Bay Rays for the pennant and there are only a game or so separating all the teams. Naturally, I am pulling hard for the Yankees, but now, in a scoreless game with a man on, Cabrera crushes an A. J. Burnett pitch into the left field grandstand. Immediately, I jump up and start pumping my fists and scream, “Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!”
But then, just as suddenly, my head catches up with my fantasy baseball glee and says, “Whuh?” The guy hit a two run homer…against the Yankees…who are fighting for a division title. Why are you cheering you idiot!?
Say the next day is Sunday and the ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is on and the featured game is the Red Sox against the Rangers. Absolutely, I have to admit that I HATE the Red Sox. Not only do they compete head to head with my team, but a lot of their fans have become this obsessive, obnoxious group they call, “The Red Sox Nation,” which is a direct rip off of the “Cardinal Nation” which has been around a whole lot longer.
I envy you folks that can still play fantasy sports. Growing up with an advanced love of baseball statistics, playing fantasy baseball was the bomb. It was also the natural progression from growing up with Strat-O-Matic baseball, a game that reached its fiftieth anniversary this season. Pouring over the statistics every day along with the box scores fit right in with my lifestyle and that’s what made fantasy baseball very exciting and a passion. It was fun to compete against friends and also anonymous people on the Net and the victories made me feel like a genius. Of course, the losses were always blamed on luck.
But a funny thing happened. I noticed that I was developing a mental disorder the more I played the fantasy game. I’ll have to admit that I am a lifelong Yankee fan. Before you hate me for that, my love for the team began in the 1960s when the team was absolutely terrible. So I was a Fan even before they became the Evil Empire. When I root for a team, it goes down to the roots of my being. In essence, a part of my life force is wrapped up in my desire for the team to win. Being a Fan of any team has its shares of heartbreak. No team is going to win all the time and failure is built into the system. Even the best teams are going to lose 35% of the time. Now add to this passion the element of fantasy baseball.
Here is how the mental problems came about. Say my fantasy team included Miguel Cabrera and his Tigers were playing my Yankees. But Cabrera is a big dog on my fantasy team and earns me a lot of points. Say the Yankees are fighting the Red Sox or the Bay Rays for the pennant and there are only a game or so separating all the teams. Naturally, I am pulling hard for the Yankees, but now, in a scoreless game with a man on, Cabrera crushes an A. J. Burnett pitch into the left field grandstand. Immediately, I jump up and start pumping my fists and scream, “Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!”
But then, just as suddenly, my head catches up with my fantasy baseball glee and says, “Whuh?” The guy hit a two run homer…against the Yankees…who are fighting for a division title. Why are you cheering you idiot!?
Say the next day is Sunday and the ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is on and the featured game is the Red Sox against the Rangers. Absolutely, I have to admit that I HATE the Red Sox. Not only do they compete head to head with my team, but a lot of their fans have become this obsessive, obnoxious group they call, “The Red Sox Nation,” which is a direct rip off of the “Cardinal Nation” which has been around a whole lot longer.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Finding Keepers: Washington Nationals
(Stop me if you've heard this one before. COSFBA would like to introduce another guest blogger to you all. This edition of "Finding Keepers" was written by Geoff Bloom of BEONDECK.com. I hope you enjoy Geoff's style of writing about fantasy baseball as much as I do.)
The Washington Nationals improved by ten games in 2010 and hope to do the same in 2011. Their lineup is slowly improving and the addition of RF Jayson Werth will provide protection for 3B Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup. This lineup has some fantasy keepers lead by Werth and Zimmerman. However, Werth's home run total fell from a career high 36 in 2009 to 27 in 2010 and Werth is projected by some to have even fewer in 2011. The change in scenery could be a huge detriment to Werth's fantasy stock. Werth hit 50 points higher and twice as many home runs in Philadelphia last year than he did on the road. He won't see a lot of pitches to hit with RISP in the Nationals lineup. He probably will drive in 87 runs, but Werth is going to have to be extremely efficient when his opportunities present themselves. A hamstring injury slowed Zimmerman's production a bit in 2010, but he continued to be a four-category monster. If the top of the Nationals order had gotten on base more, he would have easily had 100 RBI based just on his clutch hitting last year (.365 BA two-out with RISP). With Werth and 1B Adam LaRoche protecting him, expect Zimmerman to have a monster year. LaRoche does not have Adam Dunn power, but he has hit at least 20 homers each of the last six seasons and should continue to provide respectable production numbers as long as he can cut down on his strikeouts.
SS Ian Desmond stole 17 bases and knocked in 65 runs, but he had nearly four times as many K (109) as BB (28). 2B Danny Espinosa rated as the #66 prospect by Baseball America is a potential future fantasy stud. In 2010, he posted huge numbers between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors: 151 G, .259 BA, 96 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI and 25 SB. Look for him to have a productive 2011. Desmond and Espinosa can provide double-digit power and speed as well as strengthen the Nationals defensively up the middle.
With RHP Stephen Strasburg expected to miss the entire 2011 season after reconstructive elbow surgery, the ace of the Nationals injury-riddled staff is RHP Livan Hernandez. Enough said.
The Nationals bullpen is led by RP Drew Storen. He pitched well enough last year to warrant the closer role when this season begins. He went 5-for-7 in save chances. His 22 walks were uncharacteristic of what he did in the minors, but he did strike out 52 batters in 55.1 innings. If Storen stumbles, RP Tyler Clippard is next in line for saves. If your league includes the HOLDS category, look no further than Clippard who had 23 holds last year.
Geoff Bloom writes his own fantasy baseball blog, BEONDECK.com, dispensing fantasy baseball advice. I recommend checking out his blog and following him on Twitter. Geoff is also a member of a COSFBA-sponsored fantasy baseball league.
SS Ian Desmond stole 17 bases and knocked in 65 runs, but he had nearly four times as many K (109) as BB (28). 2B Danny Espinosa rated as the #66 prospect by Baseball America is a potential future fantasy stud. In 2010, he posted huge numbers between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors: 151 G, .259 BA, 96 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI and 25 SB. Look for him to have a productive 2011. Desmond and Espinosa can provide double-digit power and speed as well as strengthen the Nationals defensively up the middle.
With RHP Stephen Strasburg expected to miss the entire 2011 season after reconstructive elbow surgery, the ace of the Nationals injury-riddled staff is RHP Livan Hernandez. Enough said.
The Nationals bullpen is led by RP Drew Storen. He pitched well enough last year to warrant the closer role when this season begins. He went 5-for-7 in save chances. His 22 walks were uncharacteristic of what he did in the minors, but he did strike out 52 batters in 55.1 innings. If Storen stumbles, RP Tyler Clippard is next in line for saves. If your league includes the HOLDS category, look no further than Clippard who had 23 holds last year.
Geoff Bloom writes his own fantasy baseball blog, BEONDECK.com, dispensing fantasy baseball advice. I recommend checking out his blog and following him on Twitter. Geoff is also a member of a COSFBA-sponsored fantasy baseball league.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Finding Keepers: Texas Rangers
(For the second time in COSFBA's short history, an article is being presented to you by someone other than me. I've recently been in contact with some writers that have shown interest in possible guest writing opportunities, so you may see a few more in the near future. This post was written by Joe Tetreault, a fellow Baseball Bloggers Alliance member and accomplished writer/blogger. Enjoy his take on a "Finding Keepers" article.)
Defending AL Champs. That suggests plenty of keepers to be found by reviewing the roster of the Texas Rangers. But the pickings are slimmer than one would expect. The obvious ones jump out right away. But even in the most obvious there are caveats aplenty.
Josh Hamilton is a feel good story, and the reigning AL MVP. His outstanding .359/.411/.633 slash line signals the offensive prowess that Hamilton brings to the plate. But he's entering his age 30 season and injuries have chewed up chunks of his last two seasons. They weren't enough to derail his MVP quest, but as year end approached and Miguel Cabrera chased his numbers down, plenty called for the award to go to Detroit's troubled slugger instead of Texas'. And like Cabrera, no caveat list is complete without alluding to the troubles that Hamilton had with drugs when he was a minor-leaguer. They seem to be in the past, but the worry of relapse should be taken seriously when considering Hamilton as a keeper.
Legitimate keepers are much harder to find. One can make a case for Nelson Cruz, but age (he'll be 29 this year) and his own set of persistent injuries diminish the credibility of that recommendation. Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland are younger lads, but their track records reflect their youth. Borbon was barely replacement level in 2010, so he's not worth the keep. Moreland didn't make it to 50 games played in 2010, so his solid batting line screams small sample size.
That leaves two players who have both youth and an established track record of success available. The first is even more appealing because he plays the most challenging position on the defensive spectrum. That's Elvis Andrus. And he'll be but 22 during the coming season. He doesn't bring the power, with just 49 career extra base hits in his two full seasons. But he's swiped 65 bases in that same stretch of time and he's reasonable enough at getting on base that he'll pile up runs. In short, he's a great table setter at a typically difficult to fill fantasy position. Draft him. Keep him. Be Happy.
Like Andrus, the Rangers other keeper of renown started his pro career as a Brave and was part of the bounty the Rangers won for Mark Teixeira. But Neftali Feliz is not a defensive wiz afield. He's not a Ruthian figure at the plate. He's a flamethrower of some skill who's actually undervalued this year because no one really knows what the Rangers are poised to do with him. Will he continue to close or is his destiny in the rotation. His greater value to the club is likely as a starter, but unless he becomes a front of the rotation star, his fantasy value is tied to the saves and strikeouts he racks up along with a miniscule ERA and WHIP. He's only 23, so nabbing him now amid the uncertainty may be the steal of your draft.
Josh Hamilton is a feel good story, and the reigning AL MVP. His outstanding .359/.411/.633 slash line signals the offensive prowess that Hamilton brings to the plate. But he's entering his age 30 season and injuries have chewed up chunks of his last two seasons. They weren't enough to derail his MVP quest, but as year end approached and Miguel Cabrera chased his numbers down, plenty called for the award to go to Detroit's troubled slugger instead of Texas'. And like Cabrera, no caveat list is complete without alluding to the troubles that Hamilton had with drugs when he was a minor-leaguer. They seem to be in the past, but the worry of relapse should be taken seriously when considering Hamilton as a keeper.
Legitimate keepers are much harder to find. One can make a case for Nelson Cruz, but age (he'll be 29 this year) and his own set of persistent injuries diminish the credibility of that recommendation. Julio Borbon and Mitch Moreland are younger lads, but their track records reflect their youth. Borbon was barely replacement level in 2010, so he's not worth the keep. Moreland didn't make it to 50 games played in 2010, so his solid batting line screams small sample size.
That leaves two players who have both youth and an established track record of success available. The first is even more appealing because he plays the most challenging position on the defensive spectrum. That's Elvis Andrus. And he'll be but 22 during the coming season. He doesn't bring the power, with just 49 career extra base hits in his two full seasons. But he's swiped 65 bases in that same stretch of time and he's reasonable enough at getting on base that he'll pile up runs. In short, he's a great table setter at a typically difficult to fill fantasy position. Draft him. Keep him. Be Happy.
Like Andrus, the Rangers other keeper of renown started his pro career as a Brave and was part of the bounty the Rangers won for Mark Teixeira. But Neftali Feliz is not a defensive wiz afield. He's not a Ruthian figure at the plate. He's a flamethrower of some skill who's actually undervalued this year because no one really knows what the Rangers are poised to do with him. Will he continue to close or is his destiny in the rotation. His greater value to the club is likely as a starter, but unless he becomes a front of the rotation star, his fantasy value is tied to the saves and strikeouts he racks up along with a miniscule ERA and WHIP. He's only 23, so nabbing him now amid the uncertainty may be the steal of your draft.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Finding Keepers: Philadelphia Phillies
(In a COSFBA first, this article is coming to you by someone other than me. A unique opportunity presented itself to me via Twitter and I pounced. Writer Paul Boyé offered up his services to compose this edition of Finding Keepers and I couldn't be happier with the results. Paul currently writes for PhilliesNation.com. Be sure to check out his body of work there and follow him on Twitter @Phrontiersman.)
In making the NLCS for the third consecutive year, the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies further cemented their status as one of the Senior Circuit’s top clubs. Their defeat at the hands of the eventual champion San Francisco Giants, however, seemed to expose some flaws in their armor. In the offseason, OF Jayson Werth flew the coop for a huge contract with the Nationals and, suddenly, with all of the incumbent players a year older, things seemed a little dubious for the Phils and their top-tier status.
Then along came SP Cliff Lee, and things didn’t seem quite so bleak anymore. Sure, questions still remain about their future, but for 2011 and 2012, you can find keeper-quality players in plenty of places.
One of the no-doubt-about-it keepers on this team is SP Cole Hamels. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP followed up a rough 2009 campaign – one compounded by both sub-par stuff and bad luck – with an excellent 2010, and at 27 years old, he’s entering his prime years. Playing in Citizens Bank Park as a flyball pitcher means Cole will always give up more than a homer per nine innings, but he gives you enough everywhere else – high-strikeout, low-walk numbers, along with wins if the offense supports him – and durability isn’t a problem. He could be a top-20 SP in 2011, and should be just as good for the next few seasons.
Then along came SP Cliff Lee, and things didn’t seem quite so bleak anymore. Sure, questions still remain about their future, but for 2011 and 2012, you can find keeper-quality players in plenty of places.
One of the no-doubt-about-it keepers on this team is SP Cole Hamels. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP followed up a rough 2009 campaign – one compounded by both sub-par stuff and bad luck – with an excellent 2010, and at 27 years old, he’s entering his prime years. Playing in Citizens Bank Park as a flyball pitcher means Cole will always give up more than a homer per nine innings, but he gives you enough everywhere else – high-strikeout, low-walk numbers, along with wins if the offense supports him – and durability isn’t a problem. He could be a top-20 SP in 2011, and should be just as good for the next few seasons.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)