Line of the Day: 09/30/2010

3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR was 3-for-5 with two home runs, five RBI and three runs scored in the Blue Jays 13-2 rout of the Minnesota Twins. He's now up to an incredible fantasy line of .262/109/54/124/8 after his 9th multi-homer game of the season. Fantasy owners will be scrambling with the decision of what to expect out of him in 2011 and where to draft him. Hopefully you have him in a keeper league where the decision is simply keep him or toss him back into the free agent pool, which is hard to believe anyone would do with a 30+ HR potential player with 3B eligibility.

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Finding Keepers: Chicago White Sox: 09/29/2010

The Chicago White Sox have some very nice options to choose from when assessing your roster in search of keepers this offseason. The White Sox are one of only two teams with three players in the top 25 on ESPN's Player Rater (St. Louis is the other).

If you were savvy enough to draft OF Alex Rios (ADP 115.2), you've been rewarded with the output of the 14th ranked player and a 2011 "no brainer" keeper. Rios bested his career averages in HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG and OBP and set career highs in RBI (88) and SB (34) in 2010. Rios is signed through 2014, so it will be nice to see him as a permanent fixture in the #3 hole of the potent White Sox lineup for years to come.

How does a player with a career line of .280/32/101 get such little fantasy respect? 1B Paul Konerko (ADP 213.3) is the 4th ranked first baseman in 2010 with a .310/38/107 line and reached career highs in OBP (.390), SLG (.581) and OPS (.971). You won't find a better option at first base in a keeper league if you decide not to keep him for 2011.

OF Juan Pierre gives you steals, steals and more steals. His 63 stolen bases in 2010 lead the majors and are just two short of a career high (65 in 2004). He struggled out of the gate (.193 BA in April) in his first season on the South Side, but has hit a respectable .286 in the second half. Statistical dominance is definitely a benchmark to weigh when deciding if a player is a keeper or not.

Positional ranking is another benchmark to use when deciding keepers and SS Alexei Ramirez is the 4th ranked shortstop this season. His .283/81/17/67/13 line definitely has room for improvement and is worthy of being a keeper for 2011.

When looking at White Sox pitchers, SP John Danks, SP Gavin Floyd, SP Jake Peavy and SP Edwin Jackson each have potential fantasy value but none can be justified as solid keepers for 2011 and can easily be targeted as mid-to-late round draft targets. Their bullpen also has some very nice fantasy assets but also lots of question marks for 2011. CL Bobby Jenks is far from an elite closer (his 27 saves rank 15th most) and RP Matt Thornton and RP Chris Sale have each shared auditioning for the closers role next season.

Lastly, what to do with OF Carlos Quentin? An injury-riddled 2010 tends to lessen my view of him as a keeper for 2010. He should be available in the middle rounds as a "bounce back" candidate for 2011. I'd rather use my limited number of keepers (I always assume 5 per team is a reasonable norm) on proven performers and take my chances in the draft on players with question marks.

Are there any other players on the White Sox roster you'd be willing to use a keeper selection on for the 2011 season or do you disagree with my assessment of their roster? If so, open up the discussion by leaving me a comment.

Line of the Day: 09/29/2010

OF Ben Francisco, PHI was 3-for-4 with two home runs, three RBI and three runs in the Phillies 7-1 victory over the Washington Nationals. He got the start in left field as the Phillies rested some regulars and made the most of his opportunity. Francisco will be no more than a back-up outfielder if he remains on the Phillies in 2011.

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Line of the Day: 09/28/2010

1B Kila Ka'aihue, KC was 3-for-3 with a triple, two home runs, four RBI, four runs and a walk in a 10-1 win over the Minnesota Twins. He's hitting .276 with five home runs, 15 RBI, 13 runs and a 12:19 BB:K ration in the month of September in 20 starts. He's played 31 games at 1B and 13 at DH and should get a chance at regular playing time with the 2011 Royals.

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Line of the Day: 09/27/2010

SP Roy Halladay, PHI pitched a complete game two-hit shutout in an 8-0 victory over the Washington Nationals to clinch the NL East title for the Philadelphia Phillies. He struck out six and walked none en route to his 21st win and 9th complete game of the season. He looks finely-tuned for a great run in the playoffs.

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Line of the Day: 09/26/2010

SP Matt Cain, SF held the Colorado Rockies hitless for 7.1 innings en route to a complete game three-hit win, lifting the Giants back into 1st place in the NL West. Cain struck out eight and walked one, raising his record to 13-10 and lowering his ERA to 2.95 with a 1.06 WHIP. Cain hasn't brought the wins you'd expect a fantasy ace to bring in but his overall numbers will keep him a valuable asset to own.

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Finding Keepers: Atlanta Braves: 09/26/2010

What do you do when the highest-ranked player on the Atlanta Braves roster is planning on retiring after the 2010 season? This is the unfortunate case for CL Billy Wagner owners. How does a guy that's converted 35 of 42 saves with a 7-2 record, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 13.02 K/9 ratio retire? He's currently the 19th-ranked player on ESPN and the 25th-ranked on Yahoo! while being the overall #1 ranked reliever. It's hard to imagine him truly walking away while being on the top of his game, but all sign point to him being done. As with all keeper selections, you hope this situation is clearer before having to lock in your choices.

If I'm looking for a "no-brainer" keeper selection on the Braves, I'm keeping OF Jason Heyward. The potential NL ROY winner is having a fine season at .281/81/18/71/10 and plenty of room to get better at just 21 years old. Currently ranked 99th on ESPN and Yahoo!, I'd expect Heyward to crack the top 50 in year two. I'd be keeping him and hoping for the average to stay in the .280s but the homers to go north of 25 and the steals to surpass 15.

C Brian McCann may only be ranked 157th on ESPN and 155th on Yahoo!, but he's still the 3rd-best catcher on the board with his .274/61/20/76/5 line. A top-5 player at any position has got to be deserving of a keeper tag.

I'm not sure I'd be using a keeper selection on either SP Tim Hudson or SP Tommy Hanson unless my roster was thin or I was in a league where there wouldn't be much better available in the draft. Hudson is having a dominant season at 16-9 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but only carries a 5.51 K/9 ratio. Hardly up there with the elite aces. Hanson has the potential to win 15+ games with his 1.18 WHIP, 7.77 K/9 and 3.04 K/BB and may be more worthy than Hudson as a keeper.

Two other players having very nice seasons, 1B/2B/3B Martin Prado (.306/100/15/66/5) and Über-sub 2B/3B/SS/OF Omar Infante (.329/65/8/44/6), would be very risky keeper selections for 2011 unless they were being kept for their roster flexibility.

Are there any other players on the Braves roster you'd be willing to use a keeper selection on for the 2011 season or do you disagree with my assessment of their roster? If so, open up the discussion by leaving me a comment.

Line of the Day: 09/25/2010

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL was 4-for-5 with two doubles, a home run, five RBI and two runs scored in a 10-9 win over the San Francisco Giants. Among his four hits were the game-tying double in the bottom of the eighth and game-winning double in the bottom of the 10th. Tulo's September numbers are simply unbelievable: 23 G, .340 BA, .904 SLG, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 26 R. Most players would be pleased with those as "second half" number, let alone a single month's worth.

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Line of the Day: 09/24/2010

SP Justin Verlander, DET pitched a complete game four hitter in a 10-1 win over the Minnesota Twins. Verlander struck out 11, walked none and allowed an unearned run, upping his record to 18-8 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 209 strikeouts in 217.1 innings pitched. He's pitched back-to-back complete games and is 5-0 over his last seven starts with a 57:7 K:BB ration through 55 innings over that span. Incredible that he doesn't even get a mention in the AL Cy Young discussion. Verlander remains a fantasy baseball roster ace!

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Finding Keepers: Boston Red Sox: 09/24/2010

The Boston Red Sox are a team filled with many potential keepers for 2011, depending on your team needs and the level of risk you are willing to accept.

I'll start off with what I perceive to be a "no-brainer" keeper selection in staff ace SP Jon Lester. Lester is currently ranked 30th on ESPN's Player Rater and 29th on Yahoo!'s ranking and the 9th highest ranked pitcher on both sites. Here's a look at his statistics for the last three seasons:
2008: 33 GS, 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2009: 32 GS, 15-8, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2010: 30 GS, 18-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
I think you know what to expect with Lester and keeping him on your roster for another season should continue to pay off with Cy Young-worthy numbers.

Another highly ranked Red Sox player isn't as clearly a "no-brainer" as one would hope. 3B Adrian Beltre is currently ranked 17th on both ESPN and Yahoo! and a player that deserves to be in all fantasy MVP award discussions (based on ADP vs. production), BUT there is the issue of his 2011 contract and where he would be playing next season. I think he's a definite keeper in Boston but what if he chases a bigger contract to a place like Oakland or San Diego? Do you really expect .324/82/28/99/2 numbers from him there? Hopefully it's clear where he'll be playing in 2011 before you have to lock in your keepers.

While deciding whether to keep C Victor Martinez or not, take into consideration his #2 rank of all catchers with his .299/58/18/73/1 line. He's seeking a four-year deal but should put up similar, if not better, numbers regardless where he winds up playing.

1B/3B Kevin Youkilis was on his way to another .300/100/30/100 season (.307/77/19/62 in 102 games) when a torn muscle in his right thumb ended his season. Youkilis will only be 1B eligible in 2011, so you have to decide is he worth keeping or do you try to do better at first base. More than likely, the top-10 to top-15 first basemen are going to be kept in your league and Youkilis deserves to be kept, regardless of his ranking. Just keep an eye on news of how his rehabbing is going.

Line of the Day: 09/23/2010

1B Albert Pujols, STL was 3-for-4 with two home runs, three RBI and three runs in a 9-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pujols reached the 40-homer mark for the sixth time in his 10-year career. It's very easy to justify a player's ADP of 1.1 who is fifth in NL batting average (.309), second in ML home runs (41) and second in NL RBI (112). He's also only one of three players with 30+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases. At only 30 years old, Pujols shows no signs of slowing down any time soon and will continue to be an elite fantasy baseball stud.

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Did You Know? 09/23/2010

This edition of Did You Know? is all about Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays and his improbable assault on the 50-home run mark:

• Bautista owns the Blue Jays' single-season home run record, breaking George Bell's 23-year-old mark of 47.
• Bautista is the 26th player in MLB history to reach the 50-home run mark in a season, and the first since Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both did it in 2007.
• All 50 of Bautista's home runs have been to left or left centerfield.
• Bautista has 26 home runs since the All Star break, a Blue Jays’ record.
• Bautista has a major league-high 31 home runs at home this season.

Fantasy owners will have to decide how high (or low) to draft Bautista in 2011. He's currently the 10th ranked player on ESPN and 9th ranked on Yahoo!. He will still be 3B/OF eligible next season, having played 48 games at 3B and 105 in the OF.

Line of the Day: 09/22/2010

1B/2B/3B Jose Lopez, SEA went 3-for-4 with three home runs, four RBI and three runs scored in a 6-3 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Lopez was drafted by most as a second baseman for his .272/25/96 numbers in 2009 and has been nothing but a huge disappointment at .237/10/56 in 2010. Lopez will only be third base eligible in 2011 and nothing more than a late round filler for most teams. If you were unfortunate to still have Lopez on your roster, enjoy the output....and my condolences to your team.

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Finding Keepers: Arizona Diamondbacks: 09/22/2010

The 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks have some very nice players but only one jumps out to me as a no-brainer keeper. OF Chris Young is currently ranked 35th on ESPN's Player Rater and 43rd on Yahoo!'s rankings. Young should be kept for his 30/30 potential (currently 25/27) but be aware of his low batting average potential, as well (only a .241 career average).

For those of you that like to gamble a little bit with your keeper selections, OF Justin Upton poses a bit of risk. Currently ranked 96th on ESPN and 102nd on Yahoo!, most would call this a down year for a player that had a 2010 ADP of 18.6. No one would blame you for keeping his .273/73/17/69/17 line and 30/30 potential on your roster for 2011 but a lingering shoulder issue has him all but shut down for the rest of the 2010 season. Depending on when your keepers are locked in, you may have to make this decision before more is known about this injury.

If you are looking for a keeper based on position scarcity, C Miguel Montero has the potential to be a top-7 catcher. In 78 games this season (he missed 57 due to a severe knee injury), Montero has managed to hit .271 with 9 HR, 43 RBI and 35 Runs. Doubling up those numbers to simulate an entire season and his 18 HR, 86 RBI and 70 Runs puts him in the upper tiers of catchers and is right in line with his 162 game averages.

Are there any other players on the Diamondbacks roster you'd be willing to use a keeper selection on for the 2011 season? If so, open up the discussion by leaving me a comment.

Line of the Day: 09/21/2010

SP Ervin Santana, LAA pitched a complete game shutout win against the Texas Rangers to earn his career-high 17th victory. He allowed only five hits (all singles) while striking out eight and walking just one. Santana is finishing strong, going 7-1 over his last nine starts, and should be part of the AL Cy Young award discussion. He's now 17-9 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP for the season. Very good numbers for a pitcher with an ADP of 220.1. That's fantasy gold right there.

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Finding Keepers: Baltimore Orioles: 09/21/2010

When looking over your fantasy baseball roster(s) for 2011 keepers, feel free to skip over any and all Baltimore Orioles players. While the Orioles roster is filled with some nice fantasy pieces, none are keepers. To me, a keeper should be a player on your roster that is a lock to repeat or surpass this season's numbers and a player ranking in the top 50-75 (based on a 12-team league with five keepers per team).

The best the 2010 Orioles have to offer your roster next season are 112th ranked OF Luke Scott (.285/66/27/69/1) and 138th ranked OF Adam Jones (.282/69/19/64/5), with neither being a threat to be drafted very early in 2011.

Do you think someone is worthy of being a keeper on the Orioles roster? If so, open up the discussion by leaving me a comment.

Line of the Day: 09/20/2010

OF Curtis Granderson, NYY was 2-for-3 with two home runs, five RBI, two runs, two walks and a stolen base in New York's 8-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. He's currently on a seven-game hitting streak including four home runs and 11 RBI over the last five games. Granderson's overall numbers are a little disappointing (.249/71/21/59/12) as many (including yours truly) expected a breakout season moving into the new new Yankees Stadium and powerful Yankee lineup.

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Fantasy Forum: Finding Keepers: 09/20/2010

Unfortunately for most fantasy baseball managers, the season has already come to an end and it's time to start focusing on next season and that brings us to the issue of "keepers". Now for discussion sake, we will talk about keeper leagues with the simple rule of "you get to carry over X amount of players on your roster". I've seen and been part of leagues where the rules for keepers is more complex than Euler's formula.

How do you evaluate keepers on your roster? Simply the five highest-ranked players? Do you factor in position scarcity? Does Derek Jeter become a keeper based on being the fourth-best shortstop option (statistically) even though he is ranked 102 overall (per Yahoo!)? Category balance (a HR guy, SB guy, SP ace, elite closer for SV)? Do you prefer to use keepers on the "next great thing" like stashing a Posey, Santana or Strasburg on your roster for the potential to your roster? Or do you play fantasy baseball to own all your hometown favorites (I'm talking to you Cubs and White Sox fans)?

I'd love to hear your opinion on how you go about evaluating who to keep and some strategies for managers in keeper leagues for the first time.

Over the next few weeks I am going to go team-by-team identifying keeper options (called "Finding Keepers") and why, so keep an eye out for those articles.

Line of the Day: 09/19/2010

OF Bobby Abreu, LAA was 2-for-5 with two home runs, two RBI and two runs in a 6-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Abreu is now at 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases, reaching the 20/20 mark for the ninth time in his career. His 2010 ratios (.255/.352/.441/.793) are down significantly from his career numbers (.296/.400/.489/.889), which is not good for a 36 year old player. It will be interesting to see if fantasy owners shy away from him in 2011 and he falls from his 2010 ADP of 68.9.

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Line of the Day: 09/18/2010

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL was 3-for-5 with a double, two home runs, four RBI and three runs in a 12-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Stop me if you've heard this one before, "Tulo is on fire!". This guy just won't stop hitting. He now has 14 homers in his last 15 games and 35 RBI in his last 16 games with a .394 batting average. It's being reported that Tulowitzki joined Albert Belle (1995) and Barry Bonds (2001) as the only players since 1900 to hit 14 home runs in 15 games.

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Line of the Day: 09/17/2010

OF Shin-Soo Choo, CLE was 4-for-5 with three home runs (13 total bases), seven RBI and three runs scored in an 11-4 win over the Kansas City Royals. Choo now has 19 HR and 18 SB on the season to go along with his 79 RBI, 70 runs and .291 batting average. These numbers are only slightly down from last season but Choo is proving to be a steady, reliable fantasy baseball outfielder worth owning.

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Line of the Day: 09/16/2010

SP Jonathan Sanchez, SF pitched seven strong innings of four-hit ball, allowing one run, striking out a season-high 12 while walking none is a 10-2 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, propelling the Giants into sole possession of first place in the NL West. Sanchez is now 11-8 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.23 ERA and a 9.58 K/9 ratio. It would be nice to see him take his game over the 15 win/200 K mark in 2011, so expect to pay more than his 2010 ADP of 198.8 to get him next season.

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Line of the Day: 09/15/2010

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL was 3-for-5 with two home runs, seven RBI and two runs scored in a 9-6 win over the first place San Diego Padres. Tulo continued his September assault on NL pitchers and is now 22/61 (.361/.409/.984) with 11 home runs, 27 RBI, 18 runs and a stolen base in 15 games this month. He single-handedly may carry the Rockies (and your fantasy team) to the promise land.

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Line of the Day: 09/14/2010

SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD pitched a complete game four-hit shutout against the San Francisco Giants, striking out four and walking none in the 1-0 victory. This was his first career shutout and he's now 12-10 on the season with a 2.85 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 201 strikeouts in 192.1 innings. At only 22 years old, Kershaw's future looks bright as a fantasy baseball ace!

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Line of the Day: 09/13/2010

SP Derek Lowe, ATL pitched eight shutout innings in a 4-0 win against the Washington Nationals, allowing just six hits while striking out 12 and walking none. Lowe is healthy (sore elbow) and that's good news for the Atlanta Braves as they are in the mix for a playoff spot. He's now 13-12 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and continues to provide about 15 wins per season for relatively cheap (ADP 205.7) in most league formats. So far, that's 13 more wins than Brandon Webb, he of an ADP of 92.9. Late round pickups can be the difference between winning and losing.

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Line of the Day: 09/12/2010

OF Mike Stanton, FLA went 3-for-4 with two home runs, three RBI, two runs, a walk and a caught stealing (A for effort) in a 6-5 win over the Washington Nationals. Stanton now has 20 HR is 81 games. The math here is relatively simple. This guy has 40 HR power and hopefully becomes a better than .250 hitter. A positive sign of things to come for 2011 is that he's hitting .341 (14/41) with 6 HR and 10 RBI in the month of September. How high are you gamble on drafting him? Nice stat from ESPN: Mike Stanton is the fourth player since 2000 to reach 20 home runs within his first 81 games, joining Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, and Adam Dunn.

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Line of the Day: 09/11/2010

SP Edinson Volquez, CIN allowed one hit over seven innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, walking one and striking out 10. He did not factor in the decision. This was the first start for Volquez since August 23rd when he went only 2/3rds of an inning, allowing five runs. Volquez could be a nice add (only 12% owned in ESPN and Y! leagues) if these are the kinds of numbers he's going to put up down the stretch.

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Line of the Day: 09/10/2010

SS Troy Tulowitzki was 3-for-3 with a double, two home runs, three RBI, four runs and a walk in a 13-4 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tulo has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately (8 HR/17 RBI in his last 9 games) and is currently ranked #1 on ESPN's Player Rater and Yahoo!'s Player Rankings over the last 7 days. The Colorado Rockies, as well as your fantasy team, could go as Tulo goes in these remaining weeks of the season.

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Line of the Day: 09/09/2010

OF Colby Rasmus, STL was 4-for-4 with two home runs, four RBI, three runs and a walk in an 11-4 win over the Atlanta Braves. Rasmus has been under fire lately for allegedly requesting a trade from the Cardinals but has responded with his play on the field by going 10/21 (.476, 18 TB) with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R and 3 BB over his last six games. The Cardinals are definitely a better team with Rasmus in their lineup but it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the off-season and where he winds up playing in 2011.

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Line of the Day: 09/08/2010

SS Marco Scutaro, BOS was 4-for-5 with double, two home runs, three RBI and three runs scored in an 11-5 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Scutaro is hitting .275 and on pace for 12 HR, 60 RBI and 93 Runs. He falls in the lower end of the middle-tiered shortstops and should be plenty available in the later rounds of drafts in 2011. Gaining 2B/SS eligibility would up his value at a MI slot in deeper leagues.

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Line of the Day: 09/07/2010

OF Vernon Wells, TOR was 3-for-3 with two home runs, two RBI, two runs scored and a walk in an 8-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Wells now has four homers and eight RBI in his last three games and on pace for a 32 HR/91 RBI season. Not bad for a guy with an ADP of 170. Wells is currently ranked 69th on Yahoo! which could relate to a 5th-7th round pick in 2011.

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Line of the Day: 09/06/2010

2B/SS Danny Espinosa, WAS was 4-for-5 with a double, two home runs (11 total bases), six RBI and two runs scored in a 13-3 win over the New York Mets. Espinosa is filling in quite nicely for injured Ian Desmond (9/16, .563, 3 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 4 R, 1.875 OPS). Depending on your league, he may qualify at 2B or SS, not both yet. Espinosa will probably get an extended look this year and be in the second base mix for 2011.

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Line of the Day: 09/05/2010

1B Ike Davis, NYM was 4-for-6 with a double, home run, three RBI and three runs in the Mets' 18-5 domination of the Chicago Cubs. Fantasy owners should be encouraged that Davis has two September home runs after hitting NONE in the entire month of August. He now projects as a 20+ HR first baseman and should be a staple in the heart of the Mets' lineup for years to come.

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Line of the Day: 09/04/2010

DH Jim Thome, MIN was 2-for-2 with two home runs, four RBI, three runs and two walks in a 12-4 win over the Texas Rangers. Thome's first home run of the game tied him with Mark McGwire for ninth place on the all-time list with 583 and the second homer of the game him sole possession of ninth place at 584. He's now quietly reached the 20-home run plateau for the 16th time in his career and has helped the Twins survive losing Justin Morneau to injury.

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Line of the Day: 09/03/2010

3B David Wright, NYM was 3-for-5 with a double, home run, three RBI and two runs in a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs. After disappointing power numbers in 2009 (10 HR in 144 games), Wright is back on pace with his career numbers for 27 HR/108 RBI and his 22 SBs are great too. Wright may never be a first round pick but  owners will definitely get back solid second round numbers.

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Line of the Day: 09/02/2010

SP CC Sabathia, NYY pitched eight scoreless innings against the Oakland Athletics, giving up just one hit while striking out five, walking three and hit a batter. Sabathia has won his last six decisions and is now 19-5 overall. His 19 wins lead the majors and could be the runaway Cy Young Award winner with his 3.02 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

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Line of the Day: 09/01/2010

2B/OF Sean Rodriguez, TB was 3-for-3 with a triple, home run, RBI, run and stolen base in the Rays' 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Rodriguez was pegged as an early season "sleeper" but never got it going and lost out on playing time, which in turn killed his overall numbers (.264/48/9/38/11). It will be interesting to see how he fits into the mix for 2011.

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